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Wkd BO 12•16-18•16 - Mele kalikimaka for Disney as Rogue One & Moana #2

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Solo

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I might agree. I saw TFA maybe five times in theaters but I don't know if I'll go see RO again in theaters, even though I enjoyed it.

I probably won't watch it again until the Blu-ray release.

On an unrelated note: who had the biggest bomb this year?
-Warner Bros with Suicide Squad ($900m budget
-Sony with Ghostbusters ($500m budget

wut
 

Anth0ny

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On the verge of weekend #2 for Rogue One. North of 200mil going in.

Where do we think the film's gonna land by the time Monday rolls around? Christmas Eve is going to kick it in the shins pretty hard - will entertainment press latch onto that as proof its legs won't be all that long, and set that narrative? I'm already seeing thumbsuckers from some writers about it being lacking in terms of rewatchability (dunno if I agree, but hey)

numbers are going to be down this weekend, of course.

I expect next week weekdays to be massive simply because kids are finally out of school.
 

Bobby Roberts

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those are not correct budget numbers, man.

I don't know what math you're using to combine whatever numbers you're obviously combining, but marketing budgets aren't the same as production budgets, and combining the two to arrive at "The Budget" isn't how anyone looks at this, really.
 

Schlorgan

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those are not correct budget numbers, man.

I don't know what math you're using to combine whatever numbers you're obviously combining, but marketing budgets aren't the same as production budgets, and combining the two to arrive at "The Budget" isn't how anyone looks at this, really.
I'm pulling the numbers from GAF's over-exaggerations.

In hindsight I should have put a /s
 

kswiston

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On the verge of weekend #2 for Rogue One. North of 200mil going in.

Where do we think the film's gonna land by the time Monday rolls around? Christmas Eve is going to kick it in the shins pretty hard - will entertainment press latch onto that as proof its legs won't be all that long, and set that narrative? I'm already seeing thumbsuckers from some writers about it being lacking in terms of rewatchability (dunno if I agree, but hey)


I think most of the regulars here know that December is data poor, especially in terms of mega-blockbusters, so keep that in mind:

The last time that X-mas landed on a Sunday was 2011. The most comparable opening to Rogue One in the third weekend of December 2011 was Sherlock Holmes Game of Shadows. Not an ideal comparison, given that Rogue One's opening was almost 4x that of Game of Shadows, but we take what we can get...

From what we know of Monday-Wednesday for Rogue One, the Game of Shadows comparison isn't terrible in terms of percentage increases. Both had similar Monday drops. Game of Shadows' Tuesday increased about 5% while Rogue One was flat, but that seems to be correcting on Wednesday, with the early Wednesday estimates for Rogue One showing a slightly smaller drop from Tuesday.

So let's go ahead and do some projecting:

Game of Shadows increased 11% on Thursday, partially because more school districts had Thursday off than Wednesday. Rogue One is a much bigger movie, so I'll be conservative and say its increase will be closer to 5%. Using Deadline's $15M from earlier today, that would give us $15.75M for today.

Game of Shadows increased 42% on Friday. Looking at all of the Wednesday openers and second weekend films from Dec 2011, Friday increases ranged from 37% for Chipmunks 3 to 51% for Ghost Protocol. Let's give Rogue One a 40% increase to $22.1M

Game of Shadows decreased 42% on X-Mas Eve. Decreases in 2011 ranged from 36-49% for our openers and second week films. This is the most difficult day to call. Last year, The Force Awakens held up pretty well on X-Mas Eve, so I am just going to use a 42% drop for Rogue One. That would put Saturday at $12.8M.

Christmas Day will see a huge bounce back. Game of Shadows increased 147%. Ghost Protocal and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo increased 119% and 124% respectively. My Saturday might have been a bit optimistic, so I'll be more conservative this time and say that Rogue One bounces back 120%. That would give Sunday a $29.2M take.

Most films actually increased on Monday, Dec 26th in 2011. Game of Shadows went up 13%. Ghost Protocol increased 7%. Children's films were way up (58% for Chipmunks) I'll bump Rogue One by 10%, for a gigantic $31.0M second Monday take. Due to the way the holidays land, Rogue One might actually top TFA's second Monday ($31.4M)


TLDR version:

Thursday: $15.75M (+5%)
Friday: $22.1M (+40%)
Saturday: $12.8M (-42%) <- X-Mas Eve
Sunday: $28.2M (+120%) <-X-Mas
Monday: $31.0M (+10%) <- Holiday for most people due to X-Mas being Sunday

3-Day Weekend gross: $63.1M (-59%) - $284M total
4-Day Weekend gross: $94.1M (-39%) - $315M total
 

kswiston

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For fun, I am going to say $62M for Tues-Thurs next week and $64M for the third weekend (not counting Monday, Jan 2nd) at this point in time. My third weekend is on the pessimistic side if my second weekend figures are in the right ballpark. Almost everything increased New Years weekend vs the previous X-Mas weekend in 2011.

I'm pretty confident that Rogue One will be over $400M by Dec 31st.
 

kswiston

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You are a treasure, K-Swiss.

If you were following box office back in 2011, you might remember people calling Game of Shadows a bomb after it opened $23M (37%) lower than the first film, and was sitting at $79M after its second weekend (vs $139M after the same period for the first film).

By the end of their runs, Game of Shadows ended up at $186M vs $209M for the first Sherlock Holmes. So Game of Shadows ended up gaining $37M against the first Sherlock Holmes after that second weekend, despite the much smaller first weekend and bigger second weekend drop.

Rogue One is going to follow the same general pattern. People just have short memories. This weekend (without Monday) won't look like anything special. The third (3-day) weekend will probably end up being #3 of all time after TFA and Avatar.
 

Bobby Roberts

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600 looking out of reach then, or is there still the sliver.

You know I'm all about finding the just baaaaarely attainable scenarios and then basically spotting em like a guy on the bench who is maybe trying to press just a little too much weight.
 

N7 MRP Weasel

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I might agree. I saw TFA maybe five times in theaters but I don't know if I'll go see RO again in theaters, even though I enjoyed it.

I probably won't watch it again until the Blu-ray release.

On an unrelated note: who had the biggest bomb this year?
-Warner Bros with Suicide Squad ($900m budget, $745m gross)?
-Sony with Ghostbusters ($500m budget, $229m gross)?
-Paramount with Ben-Hur ($100m budget, $94m gross)?

Suicide Squad was 900 Million dollars to make? wouldn't that make history, the largest ever budget for a movie?
 

kswiston

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600 looking out of reach then, or is there still the sliver.

You know I'm all about finding the just baaaaarely attainable scenarios and then basically spotting em like a guy on the bench who is maybe trying to press just a little too much weight.

My ridiculously early guess for Rogue One's domestic gross through Jan 8th is $510M domestic. The Force Awakens made a little less than $125M after that fourth weekend, so we'd probably need stronger numbers in the next two weeks than I forecasted to hit $600M.

$600M is this year's $1B domestic for TFA. It likely won't happen, but Rogue One probably won't be THAT far off.
 

Schlorgan

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Unlikely. If anyone who greenlit a bomb was immediately fired, studio execs would have shorter terms than the Prime Minister of Japan.
Shareholders are sure to put some heat on the execs after the disastrous year they had. Star Trek Beyond was their highest grossing movie but still underperformed, partially due to the poor marketing and partially due to coming out right before SS. Everything they've done this year just makes them look incompetent.
 

Cheebo

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My ridiculously early guess for Rogue One's domestic gross through Jan 8th is $510M domestic. The Force Awakens made a little less than $125M after that fourth weekend, so we'd probably need stronger numbers in the next two weeks than I forecasted to hit $600M.

$600M is this year's $1B domestic for TFA. It likely won't happen, but Rogue One probably won't be THAT far off.

It is mind boggling how a spin-off film less than a year after the last film can get close to 600 mil domestic. It really just shows you how Star Wars is just leagues ahead of any other franchise domestically.
 

kswiston

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I was thinking the other day that Star Wars is going to single handedly even out the share of female/minority leads in the domestic Top 10 by the end of this decade.
 

mckmas8808

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Why is this happening? Why is the floor splitting? I saw two of the movies, but not this one. Was this in some kind of virtual reality space?
 

Androidsleeps

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Unlikely. If anyone who greenlit a bomb was immediately fired, studio execs would have shorter terms than the Prime Minister of Japan.
Sure, but I mean c'mon...who in their right mind thought this remake was a good idea and deserved a $100 million budget?! Bombs like Jupiter Ascending and John Carter, hell even that weird Johnny Depp Disney movie that I can't ever remember may be excusable or sound like good ideas to try/risk. A Ben-Hur remake that looks cheap af with no-name stars is absolutely not.
 

kswiston

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Official Wednesday Numbers:

1) Rogue One - $15.0M - $205M total
2) Sing - $11M
3) Assassin's Creed - $4.6M
4) Passengers - $4.1M
5) Moana - $2.1M

Subtract $1.7M for Sing, $1.35M for Assassins Creed, and $1.2M for Passengers to account for Tuesday previews. Assassins Creed is listed as $125M on BOM. Passengers as $110M. I'm sure both studios were hoping for more than $2.9-3.25M for their first full day in theatre.

Rogue One is at $388M worldwide as of the end of Wednesday



Wil r1 top civil war ww?

It has a good shot as long as the domestic gross isn't larger than the overseas gross.
 

broncobuster

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Fantastic Beasts ended up doing better than I thought it would but I wonder what Warner's expectations were. I believe it'll be the lowest of the Harry Potter movies.
 

Ross61

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Fantastic Beasts ended up doing better than I thought it would but I wonder what Warner's expectations were. I believe it'll be the lowest of the Harry Potter movies.
It's doing better than I expected for a spin-off with little relation (so far) to the main series.
 

Lebron

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Fantastic Beasts ended up doing better than I thought it would but I wonder what Warner's expectations were. I believe it'll be the lowest of the Harry Potter movies.
It's getting like 4 sequels and WB doesn't have a lot going for them outside of this and DCU. I'm sure they expect the series to get up near the $1B club going by the direction JK is taking with it, I assume at least
 

Dan

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I so wish Sing would bomb. Such lowest common denominator trash. Animals, pop music, cliche-ridden inspirational stories, etc. It's got thongs and songs about butts for the adults!
 

kswiston

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Variety and Deadline have Rogue One's early numbers at $16.5M for today. If that is ballpark accurate, it will be a better increase than my Thursday above. I'll stick by my numbers for now, because multi-day estimates have a way of evening themselves out. I wouldn't mind being wrong on the low side though.

Deadline is now expecting $100M over the 4-day weekend, which might happen if the rest of the week runs slightly above my estimates.


Early estimates for the this week's openers today are $9M for Sing, $2.9M for Passengers, and $2.3M for Assassins Creed.

Deadline has some stats for Passengers and AssCreed:

Passengers scored a B on cinemascore, and had an audience that was 53% male. When asked about their reasons for viewing the film, 44% said Jennifer Lawrence and 36% said Chris Pratt. The audience was 61% over 25.

Assassin's Creed scored a B+ on cinemascore, and had an audience that was 65% male (Shocking news!). 65% said they saw the movie because they loved the games. 20% said they went for Fassbender (the OT GAF crowd). The audience was split almost evenly over and under 25.

Sing got an A on cinemascore (as does pretty much every animated film). 63% of the audience was female, as dads dumped that chaperoning duty onto mum. 66% of ticket purchasers said they bought tickets because it was an animated film (aka "My kids are driving me crazy, so I needed something to shut them up for 90 minutes")


The Christmas film everyone has been waiting for, "Why Him?", opens tomorrow.
 

Boke1879

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Variety and Deadline have Rogue One's early numbers at $16.5M for today. If that is ballpark accurate, it will be a better increase than my Thursday above. I'll stick by my numbers for now, because multi-day estimates have a way of evening themselves out. I wouldn't mind being wrong on the low side though.

Deadline is now expecting $100M over the 4-day weekend, which might happen if the rest of the week runs slightly above my estimates.


Early estimates for the this week's openers today are $9M for Sing, $2.9M for Passengers, and $2.3M for Assassins Creed.

Deadline has some stats for Passengers and AssCreed:

Passengers scored a B on cinemascore, and had an audience that was 53% male. When asked about their reasons for viewing the film, 44% said Jennifer Lawrence and 36% said Chris Pratt. The audience was 61% over 25.

Assassin's Creed scored a B+ on cinemascore, and had an audience that was 65% male (Shocking news!). 65% said they saw the movie because they loved the games. 20% said they went for Fassbender (the OT GAF crowd). The audience was split almost evenly over and under 25.

Sing got an A on cinemascore (as does pretty much every animated film). 63% of the audience was female, as dads dumped that chaperoning duty onto mum. 66% of ticket purchasers said they bought tickets because it was an animated film (aka "My kids are driving me crazy, so I needed something to shut them up for 90 minutes")


The Christmas film everyone has been waiting for, "Why Him?", opens tomorrow.

Do you expect Christmas Day and the following Monday to make up the bulk of that estimated 100M
 
Nov 17, 2005
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I so wish Sing would bomb. Such lowest common denominator trash. Animals, pop music, cliche-ridden inspirational stories, etc. It's got thongs and songs about butts for the adults!

Sing offends me for another reason. You have an entire fucking zoo worth of animals to choose from and they make the family of criminals into fucking gorillas. Are you fucking serious? As a POC that knows the history of such images in our country, this has to be the most irresponsible decision made in that movie.

Seriously, fuck that movie.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Jun 8, 2004
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Sing offends me for another reason. You have an entire fucking zoo worth of animals to choose from and they make the family of criminals into fucking gorillas. Are you fucking serious? As a POC that knows the history of such images in our country, this has to be the most irresponsible decision made in that movie.

Seriously, fuck that movie.
Good point. Ugh.
 

Surfinn

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Nov 12, 2015
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Sing offends me for another reason. You have an entire fucking zoo worth of animals to choose from and they make the family of criminals into fucking gorillas. Are you fucking serious? As a POC that knows the history of such images in our country, this has to be the most irresponsible decision made in that movie.

Seriously, fuck that movie.
That sounds more like a film released in the 1950s instead of 2016. Wow
 

Aaron Strife

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Oct 10, 2006
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I think we're seeing Sing as our holiday movie this year.

Would rather see Fences tbh.

Illumination would make less money at this point if they just printed money instead of film reels, so I don't see it bombing. Don't think it reaches the heights of the Despicable Me movies though.
 

vinnygambini

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Aug 7, 2013
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Passengers box-office prospects don't look that great - I thought it would do $100M domestically, but it's looking more and more like a bad call on my part.

And another win for Illumination & Universal.

Why is this happening? Why is the floor splitting? I saw two of the movies, but not this one. Was this in some kind of virtual reality space?

Happened in the second film when she Shailene faces her worst enemy: herself.
 

PhoncipleBone

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Apr 12, 2005
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Passengers box-office prospects don't look that great - I thought it would do $100M domestically, but it's looking more and more like a bad call on my part.



Happened in the second film when she Shailene faces her worst enemy: herself.
Vinny finally taking an L in 2016? And here most of his stuff has been pretty oddly spot on this year.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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Vinny finally taking an L in 2016? And here most of his stuff has been pretty oddly spot on this year.

Yup I'm about to take an L on this one :(

Given the deadline preview articles & first-day gross, it seems like it'll land in the low $80M's. Pretty awful for a star-studded film/most on-demand actors in Hollywood.
 
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