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[Manmademan]

Manmademan, I think you are discounting the effects of summer weekdays when you look at Amazing Spider-man's weekend tallies. The weekend holds sucked, but it was sitting at $200M after its second weekend. Zero chance for ASM2 to accomplish that, even it its second weekend is $45-50M instead of $35M.


If you look at superhero legs, not many sequels manage a 2.82x opening weekend multiplier, which is way ASM2 needs to pass the first movie.

That could be true. I may be underestimating the "summer weekday" effect. I do think though that ASM2 will have far better legs than ASM though- if for no other reason than there's not much competition against it.

Cap is winding down it's run, Godzilla is targeting a different audience (imho) and Xmen is a weaker franchise- again not as popular with ASM's target audience. I can see ASM2 racking up more over a longer period of time than ASM did- especially since TDKR just annihilated what audience ASM had as soon as it launched.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

But it doesn't, really. Godzilla is such a weird, niche, outdated franchise. I can't imagine it having much pull in 2014, especially among kids. It also doesn't look like a fun movie from the trailers; it gives off a serious vibe that's contrary to a film like Avengers. But the Youtube trailers has a lot of views so anything is possible.

Again - a lot of superhero movies aren't fun, or for kids, and yet kids still go. And Godzilla is a really recognizable brand. Hell, you can see just from looking at one or two of the Godzilla threads here - people really like the big guy and it's obvious they don't actually watch his movies. Just the idea of Godzilla resonates on some level. It's why the marketing is working like it is (and needs to continue working if it's going to get an opening north of 75 mil).

It's a weird argument that the children's audience is really important when it comes to summer blockbusters when they're almost entirely engineered to shut out anyone younger than 13. If studios were looking to grab more kids for their sci-fi/fantasy films, they might try making movies that were more family friendly, instead of just using family friendly icons to make movies for teenage boys.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Yup. Those that pretend that Godzilla is this well-known, well-loved mainstream franchise people are really looking for are deluding themselves. It seems way too serious, especially given the scenario. It reminds me of a less weird, less shit Pacific Rim, but based on a more well-known franchise.

You've just outlined exactly why it will do much, much better than Pacific Rim.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Yup. Those that pretend that Godzilla is this well-known, well-loved mainstream franchise people are really looking for are deluding themselves. It seems way too serious, especially given the scenario. It reminds me of a less weird, less shit Pacific Rim, but based on a more well-known franchise.

"Appealing" is different than "well-loved."

A lot of the reason people lose their excitement for Godzilla comes when he stops being a fun idea and becomes an actual movie they have to watch If Legendary can sell the notion that this is essentially the Godzilla movie you hoped you were gonna watch when you finally sat down to watch one, the movie will do well. Not King of the Summer well, but well enough that it'll dent up the shins of some bigger blockbusters around it.

GAF also had a shit ton of interest in and love for Pacific Rim. Interest at GAF means jack shit for mainstream appeal.

You missed my point. The point wasn't to say "HEY, GAF LIKES HIM." The point was to say "There are people who like him AND HAVEN'T WATCHED HIS MOVIES."

I'm absolutely not trying to say "Well, there's a thread on GAF, so obviously it's going to be huge." Trust me, I'm not the kind of guy who thinks messageboard slapfights about pop-culture are a signifier of anything but the fact a fraction of the genre audience loves arguing with itself over why they like movies

 

[ViewtifulJC]

Man, they got people to see Godzilla '98 to the tune of $400m off the back of hype and brand recognition, and literally NOBODY even likes that movie, not even the writers themselves.

Godzilla will do just fine

 

[kewlmyc]

Mixed reviews mean I'll just wait for "on demand".

 

[G-Fex]

Pacific rim had some weird shit.

 

[Manmademan]

Again - a lot of superhero movies aren't fun, or for kids, and yet kids still go.

As we can see with the marvel films, the genre has become a lot broader than "superhero film". they're starting to target different demographics and take different tone. "Winter Soldier" and "ASM2" aren't all that similar either- you could count the humor in winter soldier on one hand. Winter soldier was trying really hard to go for the serious political thriller angle, which works for older fans but perhaps not as well for kids prone to repeat viewing. it did have some spectacular fight scenes though.

And Godzilla is a really recognizable brand. Hell, you can see just from looking at one or two of the Godzilla threads here - people really like the big guy and it's obvious they don't actually watch his movies. Just the idea of Godzilla resonates on some level. It's why the marketing is working like it is (and needs to continue working if it's going to get an opening north of 75 mil).

i think godzilla WAS a really recognizable brand, but isn't at the moment. the name is familar, but your average moviegoer knows nothing about the character and hasn't seen any movies. if they have, it's the 1998 american remake which does not have a good reputation. The closest films released that have been inspired by it are cloverfield and pacific rim- they did decent numbers, but nothing even in the same ballpark as a weak MCU film. It's tough to justify the character OR genre as particularly popular, and definitely not on the level of spider man.

It's a weird argument that the children's audience is really important when it comes to summer blockbusters when they're almost entirely engineered to shut out anyone younger than 13. If studios were looking to grab more kids for their sci-fi/fantasy films, they might try making movies that were more family friendly, instead of just using family friendly icons to make movies for teenage boys.

The children's audience isn't really important to summer blockbusters, it's really important to spider man specifically, since THAT franchise really goes hard after the "all ages" segment. Something like TDK/TDKR/Winter Soldier don't at all- they're gunning for a different kind of fan, and it's possible that Xmen: Future Past is as well.

 

[TheOddOne]

Man, they got people to see Godzilla '98 to the tune of $400m off the back of hype and brand recognition, and literally NOBODY even likes that movie, not even the writers themselves.

Godzilla will do just fine

 

[kswiston]

Man, they got people to see Godzilla '98 to the tune of $400m off the back of hype and brand recognition, and literally NOBODY even likes that movie, not even the writers themselves.

Godzilla will do just fine

People forget this. Godzilla 1998 adjusts to $230M and just like the 2014 film, there hadn't been a wide release Godzilla film in the US for well over 10 years.

 

[AgentChris]

$225M for ASM2?! Jesus, it did look expensive but not that expensive. Plus they advertised the hell out of it...

Not sure why studios spend so much to advertise movies like these. Advertise movies that need it.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Guess I'll see ASM2 at the "B" theater.

The word of mouth sounds troubling.

 

[pharmboy044]

Saw Spider-Man and thought it was great. Very funny and the CG looked great.

 

[kswiston]

$225M for ASM2?! Jesus, it did look expensive but not that expensive. Plus they advertised the hell out of it...

Not sure why studios spend so much to advertise movies like these. Advertise movies that need it.

Summer Blockbusters are the films that need the advertising. Most of them depend on hype to make money as quick as possible before they lose their 12 000 screens to something else.

 

[Kraftwerk]

 

[AgentChris]

Saw Spider-Man and thought it was great. Very funny and the CG looked great.

Uneven but I still loved it. Dane Dehaan, action and emotional scenes were top notch. Sally Field needs to be recast, she is god awful.

Summer Blockbusters are the films that need the advertising. Most of them depend on hype to make money as quick as possible before they lose their 12 000 screens to something else.

You're right.

 

[Calamari41]

Summer Blockbusters are the films that need the advertising. Most of them depend on hype to make money as quick as possible before they lose their 12 000 screens to something else.

Speaking of this, do we know if anybody is daring to open up anywhere remotely near Age of Ultron next year? Seems to me that the smart move for competing studios is to clear the path, which makes that movie's success kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Matt_]

I think I'm the only person in existence that really likes the '98 Godzilla film

 

[Manmademan]

People forget this. Godzilla 1998 adjusts to $230M and just like the 2014 film, there hadn't been a wide release Godzilla film in the US for well over 10 years.

I didn't forget it at all, I just think $230 million adjusted is a pretty weak number. Godzilla 1998 had a SPECTACULAR amount of advertising and marketing pushing it as well- I don't think we've seen anything remotely close to it's level since spider man 3. Just fucking godzilla shit everwhere.

And still- not that great of a result and the film's reception was mixed. generally poor reviews and word of mouth. The franchise has been absent from theatres (despite the cliffhanger ending begging for a sequel to be made) because it just didn't perform to expectations.

from forbes:

Still, the film pulled a solid $44 million Fri-Sun total, a $55 million Fri-Mon holiday gross, and a $74 million six-day gross.

The picture fizzled after opening weekend, dropping 59% in weekend two and ending up with $138 million domestic off of a $130 million budget. Heck, it ended up grossing less in the states than the alleged summer kick-off film, Deep Impact ($140 million), which was supposed to be a curtain raiser for the main event. StarWars.com even put out a satirical poster mocking the film’s “Size Does Matter” tag line as an unsubtle advertisement for the next summer’s Star Wars Episode One: The Phantom Menace. The film was but a punchline by summer’s end, eclipsed by the likes of Armageddon and There’s Something About Mary, Saving Private Ryan, and The Mask of Zorro.

It's hard to justify why godzilla's reputation might have improved by then. If the film is GOOD then strong reviews will draw audiences, but the godzilla name isn't going to be the thing that puts it in blockbuster tier.

 

[Calamari41]

I didn't forget it at all, I just think $230 million adjusted is a pretty weak number. Godzilla 1998 had a SPECTACULAR amount of advertising and marketing pushing it as well- I don't think we've seen anything remotely close to it's level since spider man 3. Just fucking godzilla shit everwhere.

I remember this well. To 12 year old me, Godzilla was pushed as like the event of a lifetime before it came out.

 

[Grassclipper]

TASM2 was meh, but I love Garfield in the role. Glad to see Cap doing well, really fun movie.

 

[Blablurn]

Godzilla has a June release in China. It will do fine.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

If the film is GOOD then strong reviews will draw audiences,

I feel we're a good couple decades past this scenario having existed in any significant way. If it's good, word of mouth will have an impact, but the summer blockbuster landscape has nothing to do with critical consensus. It's entirely down to marketing (opening two weekends) and word of mouth (legs from there forward). Reviews from professional critics carry almost zero weight anymore thanks to multiple factors. (democratization of criticism, general anti-critic sentiment, Rotten Tomatoes reducing criticism to numbers solely)

Unless by "strong reviews" you were specifically referencing word of mouth itself, in which case we're on the same page.

 

[Loxley]

If nothing else, I'm glad people are still seemingly interested in Spider-Man as a film franchise.

 

[kswiston]

Speaking of this, do we know if anybody is daring to open up anywhere remotely near Age of Ultron next year? Seems to me that the smart move for competing studios is to clear the path, which makes that movie's success kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Nothing the week before other than a female-oriented comedy. Mad Max, Pitch Perfect 2, and an animated Adam Sandler movie the weekend after that.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Ouch @ ASM2's RT score. Sounds like it had Spider-Man 3 problems. It will still make bank I'm sure.

 

[Manmademan]

I feel we're a good couple decades past this scenario having existed in any significant way. If it's good, word of mouth will have an impact, but the summer blockbuster landscape has nothing to do with critical consensus. It's entirely down to marketing (opening two weekends) and word of mouth (legs from there forward). Reviews from professional critics carry almost zero weight anymore thanks to multiple factors. (democratization of criticism, general anti-critic sentiment, Rotten Tomatoes reducing criticism to numbers solely)

Unless by "strong reviews" you were specifically referencing word of mouth itself, in which case we're on the same page.

Yeah, I was generally talking word of mouth when referencing reviews- though unanimous critical acclaim (or panning) can make a difference. unless the film is scoring under a 10% in rotten tomatoes or over a 95, I don't see critics making much of a difference.

Nothing the week before other than a female-oriented comedy. Mad Max, Pitch Perfect 2, and an animated Adam Sandler movie the weekend after that.

man, I still remember "battleship" just going down in flames opening up post avengers. I'm sure hollywood does too.

 

[pharmboy044]

Uneven but I still loved it. Dane Dehaan, action and emotional scenes were top notch. Sally Field needs to be recast, she is god awful.

Yup, didn't like the ending but this Spider-Man is hands down the best compared to Mr.Emo Spider-Man.
Anyone whose read the old school comic books would agree with me.

 

[kswiston]

Yeah, I was generally talking word of mouth when referencing reviews- though unanimous critical acclaim (or panning) can make a difference. unless the film is scoring under a 10% in rotten tomatoes or over a 95, I don't see critics making much of a difference.

I'd adjust that to under 40 and over 90% on the RT meter, but I agree. Really high or really low reviews can inflate/deflate opening weekend grosses for certain genres, but WOM is much more important.

man, I still remember "battleship" just going down in flames opening up post avengers. I'm sure hollywood does too.

Mad Max screams flop to me as well. At least they will have the Avengers to blame.

 

[Toa TAK]

Uneven but I still loved it. Dane Dehaan, action and emotional scenes were top notch. Sally Field needs to be recast, she is god awful.

DeHaan needs to be the lead for the Sinister Six film. I was rooting for him the whole time.

 

[TheOddOne]

 

[Hero]

I think it says a lot about the state of Sony's Spider-man if it can't even beat out Captain America with a much better month that kicks off the summer.

 

[Dai101]

 

[Manmademan]

Godzilla has a June release in China. It will do fine.

oh sure. a lot of this discussion though was talking about it's DOMESTIC performance and whether the brand itself still puts asses in seats among the american audience.

I'm not convinced that it does, and no film in it's genre has since before any of us were alive. Getting outsold by "Deep impact" AND "armageddon" in 1998, especially when those two have the exact same plot says volumes. Godzilla as a franchise pulls about what a decent disaster movie does, which implies it's not godzilla per se but rather "things blowing up" that's selling tickets.

 

[NomarTyme]

I'm dieing. lol

 

[pharmboy044]

Anyone know if foreign numbers on Boxofficemojo are legit? I don't see them tracking India and with a country over a billion in population you'd think that would be a market that they would track?

 

[MIMIC]

I think I'm the only person in existence that really likes the '98 Godzilla film

I liked it.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

Chris Martin making out with Garfield?

 

[Manmademan]

Chris Martin making out with Garfield?

 

[Ridley327]

Chris Martin making out with Garfield?

You have the weirdest, most specific fetishes.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

You have the weirdest, most specific fetishes.

Andrew! Dammit! lol

 

[Violet_0]

The Grand Budapest Hotel is still in the Top 10. Its worldwide gross is at ~$135m, making it Wes Anderson's (by far) most successful film.

Hooray!

well deserved

 

[br0ken_shad0w]

I doubt the 1998 movie even resonates nowadays. If anything that will hurt Godzilla, it's that people still associate it with the cheesier movies and the dated special effects.

 

[kswiston]

Anyone know if foreign numbers on Boxofficemojo are legit? I don't see them tracking India and with a country over a billion in population you'd think that would be a market that they would track?

They are legit, and they track India. India just happens to be a very underdeveloped market despite the population. I think that the first ASM broke records during its opening, and the film still finished under $15M total there.

 

[Tobor]

On your left, Spider-Man.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

I think I'm the only person in existence that really likes the '98 Godzilla film

Me too, it's a fun farce. But it's not a "Godzilla" film. Just like Keanu's Constantine movie wasn't a "John Constantine" film.

 

[Dai101]

On your left, Spider-Man.

Both spider-man and MoS by now.

 

[Killing_Joke]

7.7 user rating? The fuck? I'm honestly surprised a lot of people like the movie. I thought GAF was going destroy it.

 

[kswiston]

7.7 user rating? The fuck? I'm honestly surprised a lot of people like the movie. I thought GAF was going destroy it.

Metacritic user scores are meaningless. Sample size is less than 250.

That said, RT and IMDB user scores are similar, and that's with 50-100k ratings. The scores will drop as time passes (early scores are often from super fans), but it doesn't look like people hate the film.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I hated ASM and have zero interest in seeing this one. I read the reviews on RT and it re-affirmed my position. I actually cancelled going today with a friend, citing those reviews.

No thanks.