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Worst Case Scenario for the Vita
- Thread starter AppleBlade
- Start date
The reason that Nintendo could afford to spend the money polishing their "simple" games until they shined is that they actually made money off of them. The budgets for Kid Icarus or Mario Kart 7 are small compared to HD games like Assassin's Creed, but they are still a couple orders of magnitude above the budget of your average IOS game. Do you think that Nintendo would be putting in the same development money if they were releasing on iOS for $1-5 a copy plus microtransactions or ads? Other than maybe Angry Birds (which makes more money from merchandising than their game at this point), I don't think anything has come out of the iOS market that has even been close to approaching the revenue of Nintendo's AAA handheld properties.
Also, you already have thousands of iOS games giving you the games you want. Why should the rest of the industry conform to your tastes?
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
The rest of the industry should conform because if they don't adapt, they will die.
All three of the console manufacturers have incredibly talented in house game development teams working on their platforms.
I would hate to see talented teams scattered to the winds for the simple reason that their business owners were too stubborn to adapt their business models to what was wanted from the majority of consumers.
The gaming industry is suffering hugely disruptive influences right now. Indie game developers can get their games into the hands of consumers easier than ever before. Digital distribution is slowly but surely killing off retail. Tablets and smartphones are at last powerful enough to support a decent gaming experience for the majority of titles. Social and network gaming is on the increase. But perhaps the most dangerous for the old guard is that the core gamer is in decline.
Young gamers these days are growing up with high powered mobile phones and tablets where touch is the standard interface and their attention spans are far shorter.
Due to the type of gaming experiences on offer, these raw new young gamers are going to be far less tolerant of sitting through cut scenes or playing through tutorials that last the best part of an hour before they get to the meat of the game. They're likely going to see little or no attraction to sitting down in front of a TV for their gaming fix.
All of this means that the industry has a lot of changes to come to terms with. For now it can struggle on with the same bigger/better/faster/more models that have served it well in the past from console generation to generation. But this is going to be less and less relevant as the core demographic shrinks in the coming years.
With a shrinking customer base for core titles, prices have to be increased to cover development costs or new avenues need to be explored. At the moment most publishers are too scared to even acknowledge this is even happening. By the time they confront their fears and attempt to map out a future roadmap, it may be too late.
Mammoth Jones
Member
Dammit GAF....I'm littarally about to go pick up a Vita this afternoon and now I'm in serious doubt....
/sigh....
/sigh....
OldJadedGamer
Banned
How many Vita exclusive $10 games have been released and why are they not better advertised?
At least wait till E3. They may drop the price. PS3 saw a price drop at its first E3. You never know.
Powerful enough for a "decent" experience? Maybe. But mobile devices don't have the controls to enable a decent experience for "the majority of titles".
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Well if there are games you want to play, than buy it. Don´t listen to GAF. Gaffers get things wrong all the time.
not sure if serious, but don't let this thread (or any thread) stop you from getting something if you're genuinely interested in it. If the current allotment of Vita games interest you then go ahead, I'll personally pick one up next month or June at the latest. Maybe even sooner if time permits.
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
The problem with your argument is that these talented teams are still making far more money than they could ever hope to make on smartphones or any comparable device. Just because there's a higher user base doesn't mean that there's more money to be had. Maybe in five or ten years, if this Apple explosion keeps its momentum.
I also think you give the industry too little credit. If there is a consumer demand for a different design of game, they will migrate. I also see more than a few indie devs becoming more powerful and changing the direction of the industry as well. Look at Mojang for an example of this.
One more thing: the segregation of "core" versus "casual" is a silly division. I think the market is much more fluid than that, and just because a gamer becomes accustomed to one method of play doesn't mean that the market won't move on, or it won't get thrown out entirely in five years. People are more adaptable to different methods of play than you think.
Barkley's Justice
Member
i agree with everything you said. But perhaps now is the time to take a look at what a "core" title is and ask ourselves, "is this the experience we want to continue developing?"
edit: allow me to reiterate that.
i'm referring to budget. the cost of mo-cap, hiring hollywood writers, huge marketing campaigns, hundreds of vo actors, etc. we get these "cinematic" experiences, but to me it already feels like a relic of an older era. do we need such excess? at the cost of, well , $60 game titles and an apparently unsustainable business model where developers are closing left and right?
Why would you listen to GAF?
This is the problem with threads like these. If its intent is to stop potential buyers of the Vita ... I think it's done a nice job.
I'd rather have a pro and con about the Vita thread and then make the decision instead of hypothetical arguments.
Obviously you wanted to buy a Vita for a reason. Please tell us what that is if you don't mind.
Mammoth Jones
Member
Nah I'm serious. I have a ton of thank you points from Citibank. I'm very impressed with the tech and the games seem fun. The idea of a handheld console that's powerful appeals to me when I'm commuting everyday for 2 hours an when on the couch with my girl. I don't min the price but I don't want to invest in a platform if it's gonna tank
There are enough games to interest me. Just hoping it doesn't flop.
The ever more expensive 'AAA' push is a dead end, but at the same time, I think there will always be a market for games demanding a greater investment of time than the average iOS title. I mostly agree with SpinningBirdKick's post, but it goes slightly overboard.
EDIT:
This I can agree with without reservations.
A thread about the worst case scenario might not be the best place to let yourself be impressioned. This thread is really centered around a hypothetical.
Nah I'm serious. I have a ton of thank you points from Citibank. I'm very impressed with the tech and the games seem fun. The idea of a handheld console that's powerful appeals to me when I'm commuting everyday for 2 hours an when on the couch with my girl. I don't min the price but I don't want to invest in a platform if it's gonna tank
There are enough games to interest me. Just hoping it doesn't flop.
That's what matters, go for it. I've been using mine for Virtua Tennis and a bunch of PSP RPGs and I feel it was worth it. It's the best handheld hardware I've ever used.
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
Yes, I agree with this.
Nah I'm serious. I have a ton of thank you points from Citibank. I'm very impressed with the tech and the games seem fun. The idea of a handheld console that's powerful appeals to me when I'm commuting everyday for 2 hours an when on the couch with my girl. I don't min the price but I don't want to invest in a platform if it's gonna tank
There are enough games to interest me. Just hoping it doesn't flop.
Ok great. So you want to buy the Vita for what it offers now despite the price. This is cool. You also hope that it doesn't flop. This is the hope of all new hardware.
For me, I will not buy the Vita until the following:
- PS One support
- More compatibility with PSP titles
- a solid direction for Android/PS Suite
- a plan for Q3/Q4 2012 going into 2013
That's not a hypothetical argument or wishful thinking. I think this is realistic and once I am given direction .. the system will be mine.
Risible
Member
Very true.
I bought a PSP week one on release. I have something like 50+ UMD games. The PSV can play those games, but not on my form factor. Given the high price of entry and the fact that I can't play the games I already own I've passed on the PSV up to now.
I also have 50+ DS games. I paid $250 day one for the 3DS because I knew that barring all else I could play my huge DS library on it.
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
Portable gamers want Angry Birds/ Draw Something / Poker / Word Games and not twitch shooters that are popular on home consoles.
The majority of users don't want to play COD/HALO type games on their iOS/Android. For the two minute casual time waster games the touch interface is just fine.
Nintendo realised this with the DS and brought simple casual friendly experiences to the fore. Sony unfortunately did not and tried to replicate their console titles on the handheld format which fared poorly in comparison.
The only people whining about touch controls are core gamers coming from the home console experience. Core gamers are going to find their needs more and more marginalised as developers and publishers shift their focus to what the casual gaming public wants and not what the core gamer dictates.
Yea but 3DS makes DS games look worse. Vita makes PSP games look and play MUCH better. I'll gladly take the tradeoff.
m.i.s.
Banned
You have to consider that if even Nintendo - the undisputed handheld portable king - is selling below expectations in the West (in both hardware and particularly software), it has to make you seriously wonder how Sony can do any better?
So, yes, worst case scenario it sells Dreamcast numbers. On the best case scenario - if sony can turn it around - GCN to N64 worldwide numbers.
I think it will be bad for Nintendo too btw particularly in the West (but not nearly as bad as for Sony since Nintendo can carve a niche with it's first and second party studios and Japan is pretty much secured).
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
You seem to think that there's a finite amount of resources that can be applied to game development industry-wide, as opposed to the market expanding.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Yes, we do.
Honestly if the big blockbuster games didn't exist, my gaming time would scale back considerably.
And it's not an unsustainable business model. It's a model where you have fewer winners, that have the budgets and resources to create games of this model that truly are the top of the pack, but where there's a lot of losers that don't have the budgets and resources yet are trying to cash in on this model but inevitably fail.
Good question is whether or not it's something I want to see on handhelds, and the answer to that question is, "not so much". I don't need cinematic experiences for handhelds. I do want games that have high production values and emphasize mechanics that are best suited towards the platform, however.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Portable gamers would actually love some of these console shooter experiences on the go, there just isn't a conduit that allows them to enjoy that same experience.
It's why Sony, whenever the Vita's power gets usurped by tablets/phones, needs to unleash the Vita marketplace onto iOS/Android devices with a snap-on controller that turns their phone into a handheld portable with legitimate control options.
The money isn't in hardware, it's in software, and with the new gaming landscape for mobile devices upon us, Nintendo/Sony must embrace this reality that their hardware doesn't matter. Folks just want to carry one device for everything, and they will do most of their time gaming on this device rather than buying separate devices. The biggest potential userbase for their games will be on the devices that sell 200+ million or more a year, not devices that sell 10-15 million a year.
Looking back on this thread and similar ones about the uncertain future of handheld gaming, two of the numerous recurring arguments that stick out are:
1. handheld gaming needs to be differentiated from console experiences to attract the mass market;
2. traditional console style input remains a draw for dedicated handhelds.
Proponents of the 3DS almost always hold both as being true, but aren't they contradictory? Why does handheld gaming need buttons and D-pads and analogue sticks? You can get plenty of games built on such controls on your console or PC. Games controlled entirely through touch and motion provide a true alternative.
1. handheld gaming needs to be differentiated from console experiences to attract the mass market;
2. traditional console style input remains a draw for dedicated handhelds.
Proponents of the 3DS almost always hold both as being true, but aren't they contradictory? Why does handheld gaming need buttons and D-pads and analogue sticks? You can get plenty of games built on such controls on your console or PC. Games controlled entirely through touch and motion provide a true alternative.
Metroid Hunter
Banned
It's bad enough that iOS is eating into handheld market share, but I think the Wii U will take even more market share from 3DS/Vita.
Parents need something to give to their kids. They can play the new Mario at home on this tablet controller, while the parent seizes the TV, and this kid can play for a long time on this and not get bored (you can't really play Angry Birds for hours and hours).
And on the go, the kid can play smaller iOS games for a few minutes in the car.
Parents need something to give to their kids. They can play the new Mario at home on this tablet controller, while the parent seizes the TV, and this kid can play for a long time on this and not get bored (you can't really play Angry Birds for hours and hours).
And on the go, the kid can play smaller iOS games for a few minutes in the car.
I'm still not convinced that anyone but the most enthused of the enthusiasts even notice this is the case. I barely do, and I've been playing DS games for a long-ass time.
My primary reason for getting a Vita though right now is for its PSP back catalogue, since I never bought a PSP. Just waiting for it to become a bit more affordable.
Worst case scenario is they don't do something at E3 for it and it just dies off.
Vita to me is like the PSP, it will get a handful of known franchises and just sit in a corner and get niche japan titles from Atlus etc. which isn't a bad thing but i didn't buy it at launch and i won't buy it till it drops $100 which i assume will be by holiday this year, i am honestly surprised it didn't drop in price yet.
Has no games that really interest me and nothing that i know of that is coming out that interest me.. it needs games.
Vita to me is like the PSP, it will get a handful of known franchises and just sit in a corner and get niche japan titles from Atlus etc. which isn't a bad thing but i didn't buy it at launch and i won't buy it till it drops $100 which i assume will be by holiday this year, i am honestly surprised it didn't drop in price yet.
Has no games that really interest me and nothing that i know of that is coming out that interest me.. it needs games.
Even though the control schemes are similar, there are many differences between Mario Galaxy and New Super Mario Bros, just like there are differences between Resident Evil 5 and Revelations. None of these games would work as well on touch devices. These points are not mutually exclusive.
I personally am optimistic for Vita (I know it's a worst case thread...). I like the hardware, it's very nice to work with (I'm a programmer) - and I can see long term thinking in how Sony have developed the platform.
The release came at an interesting time too. They'd just bought out Ericsson to become full owner of 'Sony Mobile'. I don't see this as coincidence, as in my mind Vita represents a platform Sony can use in their phone business. I could see the SoC inside Vita becoming the Sony equivalent of Apple's A5 or Samsung's Exynos - i.e. custom ARM/SGX hardware.
For this reason I expect to see the SoC cost reduced faster than a typical console part, and it also means Vita games can potentially come unmodified to non-Vita devices (eg, a future iteration of the xperia play).
Additionally, Sony now have Playstation Suite. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. While I don't see it reaching the success of Amazon's app store, I think it has a lot of potential to expose the brand and bring more content to vita.
Sony have actually done a good job of digital distribution too. Rayman (FANTASTIC!) was actually cheaper for me to buy digitally than through retail/web!
The release came at an interesting time too. They'd just bought out Ericsson to become full owner of 'Sony Mobile'. I don't see this as coincidence, as in my mind Vita represents a platform Sony can use in their phone business. I could see the SoC inside Vita becoming the Sony equivalent of Apple's A5 or Samsung's Exynos - i.e. custom ARM/SGX hardware.
For this reason I expect to see the SoC cost reduced faster than a typical console part, and it also means Vita games can potentially come unmodified to non-Vita devices (eg, a future iteration of the xperia play).
Additionally, Sony now have Playstation Suite. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. While I don't see it reaching the success of Amazon's app store, I think it has a lot of potential to expose the brand and bring more content to vita.
Sony have actually done a good job of digital distribution too.
Rayman (FANTASTIC!) was actually cheaper for me to buy digitally than through retail/web!Metalmurphy
Member
Escape Plan (£9.99), Top Darts (£6.49), Hustle Kings (£6.49), Super Stardust: Delta (£6.49) and MotorStorm RC (£4.79) come to mind. Pretty sure there are others.
Also, why do they have to be exclusive?
FrenchMovieTheme
Member
you are surprised a system didn't drop by $100 within two months of release? lulz
i'm not a big handheld player but i do have a vita and i have loved it so far. worst case scenario would be that the system doesn't have its potential realized and doesn't get good 3rd party support. even in a worst case scenario the system is extremely valuable to me as long as sony activates the PSOne button. i have a bunch of psone games and i would love for them to finally be portable with this awesome screen.
nintendo could learn quite a bit from sony in regards to letting their classic games you buy on their main system (ps3/wii) transfer to your portable. that was the biggest disappointment i had with 3ds and why i sold it. why the fuck can't i transfer my NES/SNES/N64 games i already paid for on wii to the 3ds? fucking dinosaurs
I played that FPS Modern Combat 3 on my phone because its on sale and boy do the controls suck. Until phones have physical buttons phone gaming will never be the future. The only people that those games appeal to are the casual crowd that flocked to the Wii. While it made the Wii extremely popular and profitable they completely abandoned the Wii after a few years and the Xbox 360 quickly became the top selling console again.
The causual crowd is a completely flaky crowd and will completely bail on you when the next fad arrives. The hardcore will always be around until the end.
The causual crowd is a completely flaky crowd and will completely bail on you when the next fad arrives. The hardcore will always be around until the end.
It also takes like 20 years to make a GT game. If the series is going to be the psv savior, it should had already been long underway.
Personally, I'm not sure what will save the platfor, but I do know that more stuff like Gravity Daze and less stuff like Uncharted would probably benefit in the long run.
And when the hell are we getting Dragons Crown?
ScreenSplitter
Member
B-but the analysts said!
I get that the games are differentiated from home platform titles in terms of structure and focus, but at the end of the day they still present a 'lite' twist on the console experience. Do gamers really need to be playing titles like this all the time? I think the majority that aren't represented by enthusiast sites like GAF are perfectly content to get their traditionally controlled gaming time at home and then get something a bit different when they're in transit.
Pancakes R Us
Member
Hahahahaha. This made me laugh despite it being SO true. I would love to be able to play the NES and SNES (especially Super Metroid) games I paid for already on the Wii VC on my 3DS.
I've not bought a VC game since around 2007 and won't be likely to do so again until an account based system which links my games to an account as opposed to a system-only is available. Fuck you, Nintendo. Fuck you.
Cerebral Assassin
Member
There are no N64 games available for the 3DS(unless you are talking about OoT or LW64), & I don't ever remember Nintendo promising that Wii VC games will be playable on other devices (& I expect them to transfer to the Wii U), it seems a bit naive to expect Nintendo to give out something for free.
All my VC games are linked to my Club Nintendo Acct, & have been for years.
DangerousDave
Member
Do you really know what's the average size of a cinematic in a portable Resistance, Uncharted or God of War game?
Because is not bigger than the cinematic time of a DS Zelda game. The only difference is that in a DS Zelda game the cinematic is with fixed camera and you have to press A to advance to the next dialog bubble.
ScreenSplitter
Member
Whilst Nintendo never promised anything, it's more of a "they really should" kind of thing. Paying for a digital copy of old games we probably own is one thing. Paying for a second digital copy when we have a legal, purchased copy on another Nintendo device is another.
I wish they'd gone the Sony PS1 Classics route.
That's an attempt to impose a genre built around complex traditional game controls on a purely touch interface, so obviously the results aren't pretty. Touch controls are still in their relative infancy, and a lot of people are still grappling with how they should be implemented. Touch potentially opens the door to many new avenues in game design, and I think its implementation is only going to get more interesting and refined.
2013. Atlus are publishing it now.
Sony do it with PS1 games.
Wii U uses an account based system. Hopefully a system update near the Wii U launch will bring that to 3DS.
...so ?
I don't understand the math here. Could you explain? By my math, you should have $310 for Vita and $210 for 3DS.
Cerebral Assassin
Member
No-one expects them to give out games to people who bought the games originally, why should a VC owner get more than someone who paid 5 times the amount for the same game? Also the thing with the PS1 classics, most of the games people want are 3rd Party so I would have thought that plays a part in that (we'll see if PS2 games work on the Vita, there are more 1st party hits on that format).
Did you see the post I was replying to?
Kid Icarus is $10 and all other 3DS games are $20?