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[tiredheadcrab]

For me 2017 is a bit to early. Even 2018 is as well. Id say 2019-2020 is a good spot. If it was 2017 we would have gotten rumors by now. Developers would hear things from MS. Dev kits would probably start shipping like next fall. Not many people would be happy with an early launch. Infact i see them launching the same holiday as PS5. However i do expect a redesigned xbox one in 2016 by the surface team as they are very good at what they do.




The system's OS probably wont change much as both the Xbox one and next gen xbox will run windows 10. So that means that Game DVR and Back Compat will be there day 0. I imagine ill buy the system, connect it online and get my account up, plug in my external HD and all my games that i played on the one will be there ready to go with new gen xbox games installing. The ecosystem will be seamless.

 

[HokieJoe]

that only worked because sony messed up launch badly. If ps4 was cheap and had online from the onset, the 360 would have never sold as much as it it did.

That works both ways though. MS was doing very well in the US and UK IIRC, and 360 owners would've flocked to a XB1 had Mattrick, et al not screwed the pooch.

 

[HokieJoe]

I'm not sure it would be worth it graphically without having a design based around the 10nm node. Who knows when that will be.

It's much like we couldn't get this generation until we had the mature 28nm node in 2013 to avoid 200w launch consoles again.

Yep, and the best bet to reach good yields at that node is Intel- not Global Foundries, TSMC or UMC. Per the roadmaps, Intel are researching materials and lithography for the 10nm die shrink beginning in 2015.

 

[Apollo87]

Yeah if MS wants to lose to Sony again then go ahead.

 

[AmyS]

Will AMD still be around in the future and do we really want a bottom of the barrel CPU again. I don't think Intel will be a choice because of cost, even Nvidia as well so if AMD can't deliver, well you get what you get at the time.

If AMD can survive, I'd expect their Zen CPU core to be pretty good overall. The next step they have planned, besides discrete CPUs and GPUs are Zen-based APUs with Greenland GPU (Arctic Islands) with HBM2 stacked memory.

I think that might serve as the model for what the actual next-gen console APUs are like.. A console APU with Zen would be far, far better than the Jaguar cores used in current consoles. Combined with a 10+ TFLOP GPU from the generation after Arctic Islands, and plenty of HBM2 (which should be cheaper then) Microsoft could have a nice console together by 2018 / 2019. Sony will probably be using the same general technologies but have a somewhat bigger GPU and not launch before 2019. .

 

[SparkTR]

That's exactly what they're doing. Xbox doesn't mean only a console to them any more, it's a service that they want to reach as far as possible on with Windows 10 devices.



Microsoft Puts Windows and Games as the Centre of Its Strategy



From his "The Future of Gaming Across the Microsoft Ecosystem" session at GDC in March this year. Link

This is why I don't want to make predictions about this just yet. There's no way a new Xbox will launch without some of that 'platform agnostic Microsoft' stuff in its DNA. But how they'll go about that I have no idea. Living room optimized Windows 10 boxes are possible.

 

[Hidden One]

I fully expect Microsoft to do everything in their power to release the Next Xbox before 2020 and before the PS5.

 

[jroc74]

Like others have said....I would be surprised.

Lets see sales really start falling off a cliff first before we discuss this. Although....I had no idea until last week that the Wii U and XBO were so close in sales...

I dont know if thats bad for MS or good for Nintendo. Or the PS4 is just killing it right now.

 

[DaleinCalgary]

2020 for ps5 and new xbox. 2018 a new nintendo console.

 

[Pachinko]

Thanks for the avalanche of replies on this subject so far everyone. This was much more a personal curiosity than a prediction, I really do think 2018 is likely but 2017 would probably throw me off a bit.

Like others suggested - I think 2016 we will see a redesigned "slim" xbox 1 , perhaps it will even drop some of the stuff that the original console had - no kinect port, no hdmi in , maybe stick with a small amount of internal solid state space with the option of expanding to external hard drives to keep the base cost of the system low without being a loss leader ? Imagine a console that's half the size of the current xbox 1 , uses less power but does 90% of the same stuff and it's 199.99 USD next christmas. This box is then sold in 2017 and even 2018 before production is stopped and it's all in an effort to equilize overall losses on the xbox one venture.

The next console then launches with a single SKU for 399.99 in late November 2018 and it's big release is Halo 6 which can also be played 3 weeks later on the xbox one (much like the twilight princess wii/game cube thing). People keep mentioning the costs behind all these big games being too high for porting and such but the PC versions of these games already exist in most cases and simply have the highest quality textures enabled all the time instead of 5 feet in front of your face. All of the tech in something like Halo 5 had to be built , it's mostly the framerate and level of detail / resolution that suffers. So , just picture a 4th gen xbox version have all the stuff turned on all the time , that doesn't really require much extra resources.

Those of you bringing up that the xbox 1 isn't doing that bad fail to realize just how much of their software tie ratio is reliant on pack in /free games as well as the fact that every box sold for under 380$ is being sold at a pretty substantial loss. Skipping ahead to a new system may end up being more profitable for them because of this , they simply build a 400$ box that is profitable from day one but also the best it can possibly be at that price point.

Keep in mind I'm talking about stuff that won't be happening for 2-3 years here. This generation is a very healthy one if you're sony. Most people have invested in their console and they will be playing great new games for 4 more years minimum but more likely as much as 6 more years. Just like you could play PS2 games in 2007.

 

[AmyS]

2020 for ps5 and new xbox. 2018 a new nintendo console.

The home console form of NX is almost certainly going to be released by fall 2017 at the very latest. Nintendo will be talking NX next year. Wii U launched three years ago in 2012, sold just over 10 million systems, worldwide, in that time. You really think Nintendo will go another 3 years without releasing a console? Bet on NX arriving, in any/all of its forms, between end of 2016 and fall 2017.

 

[presagetogood]

I don't see how they can avoid more frequent hardware refreshes in the long term.

They're forging ahead on enabling gamers to choose to play their games on any Windows 10 device, so it seems like they would run the risk of letting other manufacturers eat into their hardware sales of the Xbox if any Windows 10 machine could play Xbox games. Maybe they'd be okay with that though.

They're doing yearly refreshes of Surface to keep it interesting and to keep making it better. I don't know if annual Xbox refreshes are in the cards, but maybe every 2-3 years sounds pretty reasonable if the games are truly cross-platform.

What you're talking about would cost them the console market. Xbox is Microsoft's most successful consumer brand, in terms of hardware, and the last few years have shown Microsoft's interest in expansion in hardware, regardless of the cost of investment.

Why do you think they would dilute their most successful consumer brand hardware by enabling all games on Windows and doing updates to the base hardware midway through the cycle? Please explain your sense of why that would be good business.

Also, since you're so sure they will enable all games on Windows, why aren't halo 5 and forza 6, along with halo mcc, sunset overdrive, forza horizons 2, and multiple other Xbox exclusives, not already on pc platform? Why haven't they already followed through with what your so certain will happen? MS has boasted of less than 6 months porting time with a group of 5 developers for forza 5...

 

[FalsettoVibe]

2019 at best.

 

[Mooreberg]

2017 would be a mess. Too many big third party games would still be slated for current hardware. The first GTA on PS4/One will not even be out by then.

 

[Crayon]

It all depends on the market reaction to morpheus.

 

[oSoLucky]

I think we lose sight of the difference between selling bad and selling worse than the competition sometimes.

 

[C4Lukins]

Maybe late 2018 or 2019. XOne is not winning but it is not a flop either.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

2017, yes.
2018, no.

 

[alternade]

Like an entirely new platform, not just a refresh of hardware? No. XB1 is here until 2019/late 2020.

 

[User 479360]

This all sounds early given how long last gen lasted. Then again, people aren't extremely happy with the consoles' performances and power, and it's not hitting 1080p.

So maybe. I don't know how I'd feel about that, though.