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[DieH@rd]

PS4 as of April 6th 2014 - 7M WW
2.9M USA (41%)
0.5M Japan (7%)
3.6M Rest of the world (52%)

Xbone as of December 31 2013 - 3M WW
1.8M USA (61%)
1.2M Rest of the world (39%)

With first 3 months of 2014 NPDs:
2.5M USA
1.7M Rest [only if ratio remains 39%]
~0.8M unaccounted ["shipped"]


Looking at this only USA is a close fight, outside of it Sony is easily outpacing MS 2:1.

 

[Heshinsi]

MS PR loves this, get idiot journalists to think sold-in = sold, make it seem like they're only 2 million behind when maybe 3-4 million behind in units sold to consumers

Sold in does mean shipped though. The verge are just idiots, but Polygon is correct.

PS4 as of April 6th 2014 - 7M WW
2.9M USA (41%)
0.5M Japan (7%)
3.6M Rest of the world (52%)

Xbone as of December 31 2013 - 3M WW
1.8M USA (61%)
1.2M Rest of the world (39%)

With first 3 months of 2014 NPDs:
2.5M USA
1.7M Rest [only if ratio remains 39%]
~0.8M unaccounted ["shipped"]


Looking at this only USA is a close fight, outside of it Sony is easily outpacing MS 2:1.

They're beating them handily YTD. 3M sold to 1.1M shipped.

 

[Steroyd]

Do people all of a sudden have issues with a company releasing sold to retailer numbers now? Sony did this all last generation with the PS3 and people didn't seem to have a problem with it?

Sony doing it last gen with the constant shipped vs sold debate that followed is why the shipped number now brings ire.

 

[Ken Masters]

Sold in does mean shipped though. The verge are just idiots, but Polygon is correct.

I was referring to the verge tweet, I should have made more clear, but anyway, MS PR earned their paycheck

 

[krioto]

The PS3 was also the more expensive and underpowered console for years. I'm not sure how anyone who justified an early PS3 purchase can also be an ardent opponent to the Xbox One.

I love these bullshit comparison narratives you like to run with, what's next?

 

[SmokedMeat]

Vast majority of Live subs are for multiplayer, MS realizes this, and Sony realized this.

This is a massive roadblock in me buying an Xbox One, and you have to wonder if it will deter consumers from buying both consoles?

Even if I'm making peace with Microsoft, and finding interest in ther lineup, I've no desire to spend $100+ annually to play online on both systems. We're talking upwards of $500 during the lifespans of both consoles! Even if they drop the price of the hardware this is still in the back of my mind. I think we're going to see a drop in multisystem ownership this generation, so whoever can get out there and move the most units is going to make it that much tougher on their competition.

 

[Night Angel]

The PS3 was also the more expensive and underpowered console for years. I'm not sure how anyone who justified an early PS3 purchase can also be an ardent opponent to the Xbox One.

The PS3 was also the cheapest Blu-ray player on the market and had free online. It also didn't come with a shitty camera (I fucking hate my Kinect 2.0).

Your post is bad. The situations are not even remotely the same. I'm an early adopter for both the PS3 and the XB1, but come on.

 

[Elvin Atombender]

Indeed undoubtedly PS4 has great demand however the xbox has less available markets.

In other words the worldwide gap would be less than 2 million if xbox was available in more markets, even factoring PS4's demand and supply constraint.

You can basically walk into any store that sell consoles here in Sweden and they have a lot more Xbox One in stock than than PS4 - and Xbox One isn't released here yet.

The Xbox One sales in some countries must be quite inflated because a lot of those units are going to markets where it hasn't been officially released yet.

 

[Hoo-doo]

People clinging to the idea that the tier 2 countries are going to contribute substantially to the sales numbers, please don't do this to yourselves. It's not going to turn things around, not in Europe at least.

There's plenty of Xbone stock in tier 2 zones, all coming from neighboring countries.
If anything, the official release there will subsequently mean less sales in the original tier one countries due to the lack of import necessary.

And it's not selling well in most of mainland Europe anyway, what with germany trying to sell Titanfall bundles for PS4 prices right now.

 

[tapedeck]

So probably 2 million were sold to customers and there are 3 million on shelves.

This is a troll right? I seriously cannot tell anymore.

 

[sinnergy]

sports fix? Get out of the house son.

Says you, next to this stuff I als speedskate and speedbike lol

So don't judge.

 

[kinoki]

This is a troll right? I seriously cannot tell anymore.

Well, if we assume that Microsoft has the same production as Sony they would have made a similar amount of machines. If they've sold 5 million to retailers would mean they have another 2 million in warehouses. If the production continues they'll have another million by the end of the month. They can't discontinue the contract and produce less. They still need to pay for them, regardless, so they might aswell build them.

This is also the reason why a Kinect-less SKU is not happening. They've already been produced and will continue to be produced for the entire contract Microsoft has with the factories on a 1:1 ratio with consoles.

EDIT: Re-read. I mis-read. Yea, it's a troll. I should not eat, read and watch a movie while posting.

 

[Boss Mog]

So is this how it's gonna be all gen: Sony reports actual consoles sold and MS reports consoles shipped to retailers?

 

[Heshinsi]

So is this how it's gonna be all gen: Sony reports actual consoles sold and MS reports consoles shipped to retailers?

Until the gap is so large, that no one cares any more.

 

[Valkyria]

So is this how it's gonna be all gen: Sony reports actual consoles sold and MS reports consoles shipped to retailers?

Once production meets demand Sony will start to report shipped too, otherwise it would be to difficult to know the real sell through. Right now almost every Ps4 manufactured is sold.

 

[Night Angel]

So is this how it's gonna be all gen: Sony reports actual consoles sold and MS reports consoles shipped to retailers?

MS will always report the numbers that make them look the best. It's a smart business decision. Expect a lot of sold-in, "XboX family," and shipped.

 

[Raoh]

Explains the console discounts. Retailers won't accept more shipments until their stock is cleared.

 

[Josman]

The PS3 was also the cheapest Blu-ray player on the market and had free online. It also didn't come with a shitty camera (I fucking hate my Kinect 2.0).

Your post is bad. The situations are not even remotely the same. I'm an early adopter for both the PS3 and the XB1, but come on.

Not to mention it didn't require a subscription for online play, long term it was cheaper for early adopters.

 

[Mass Effect]

PS4 as of April 6th 2014 - 7M WW
2.9M USA (41%)
0.5M Japan (7%)
3.6M Rest of the world (52%)

Xbone as of December 31 2013 - 3M WW
1.8M USA (61%)
1.2M Rest of the world (39%)

With first 3 months of 2014 NPDs:
2.5M USA
1.7M Rest [only if ratio remains 39%]
~0.8M unaccounted ["shipped"]


Looking at this only USA is a close fight, outside of it Sony is easily outpacing MS 2:1.

I doubt the rest of the world still accounts for 39% of Xbone's sales. It seems that outside of the UK sales have dropped off tremendously. I remember someone saying in either the Jan or Feb NPD thread that the US' sales were greater than the rest of the world combined (of that month) (can't find the post, I quoted it though. I remember that). Xbone is probably hovering around 4 million sales WW, no more than 4.2-3.

 

[Killroyskbg]

Explains the console discounts. Retailers won't accept more shipments until their stock is cleared.

But is it the stores themselves taking the loss from the pricecut or MS? If it is the stores they probably will lower the amount of units they order to make room for better selling products. This could lead to even shipped numbers significantly slowing down.

 

[Respect]

The PS3 was also the cheapest Blu-ray player on the market and had free online. It also didn't come with a shitty camera (I fucking hate my Kinect 2.0).

Your post is bad. The situations are not even remotely the same. I'm an early adopter for both the PS3 and the XB1, but come on.

Indeed, the fact it was the cheapest blu ray at the time (400 I believe when I got it) is the main reason I owned a PS3 instead of 360.

 

[JaggedSac]

That's very nice and all jagged, but I repeat, they need to make money. They invested tons of money on this, starting with half a billion on the NFL deal and the new controller and they did that based on projections and a business plan. Now they are revising their projections downward which means less revenue and on top of that messing with live is gonna tank them. The difference with ps+ is that sony budgeted for that in advance so it's already factored into their numbers.

Jagged, I repeat, where is the money gonna come from. To give you an idea, righting the ps3 costed sony billions. Granted, so far it does not look like the bone is the unmitigated disaster the ps3 was, but these drastic measures will mean they're gonna have to go to the higher ups at Microsoft and tell them that they need money to fix this situation. And that's gonna be the third time the Xbox fails to produce any meaningful profit.

And I am not being a console warrior here jagged, competition is awesome for consumers. I want Microsoft to do great, I want Nintendo to do great.

Sony lost so much money because their hardware was expensive as hell to produce and needed to sell at a loss to compete. MS isn't in that same boat. They are making a profit on the box at $500 and that includes what people think is a $100 - $150 to produce Kinect. So they have wiggle room in regards to that. Selling at $350 without Kinect will probably still either make profit or be even. And that is a price that works since it is a lower powered box than the PS4.

How many people do you think are going to pay for Live who do not play multiplayer and want to watch Netflix? Billions of dollars worth? No. How much do you think Sony is paying for free games for PS+? Billions? No, they are not. If MS wants to get non multiplayer people to pay for Live, they need to get single player gamers by adding value to Live. Trying to make money off of Live is irrelevant if no one is buying their boxes. Perception of their box and services are key to getting people back on board.

I think you are over estimating the number of people who own xboxes and are paying for Live just to watch Netflix. At least it isn't enough to offset the negative perception that it gives them. It even made an appearance at Amazons Kindle Fire TV conference.

 

[RoadHazard]

PS4 as of April 6th 2014 - 7M WW
2.9M USA (41%)
0.5M Japan (7%)
3.6M Rest of the world (52%)

Xbone as of December 31 2013 - 3M WW
1.8M USA (61%)
1.2M Rest of the world (39%)

With first 3 months of 2014 NPDs:
2.5M USA
1.7M Rest [only if ratio remains 39%]
~0.8M unaccounted ["shipped"]


Looking at this only USA is a close fight, outside of it Sony is easily outpacing MS 2:1.

As expected. There was no way MS was gonna have a chance outside the US. They didn't even really last gen, and then the 360 had a lot going for it (available more than a year earlier, lower price, etc). The PS3 still caught up rather quickly in Europe, and then zoomed way past. This time the XBO is simply gonna get steamrolled. So yeah, the US is where MS has the only chance to really compete, and even there it seems like Sony is headed for victory this time around (although that's probably a bit early to tell).

 

[FDC1]

I doubt the rest of the world still accounts for 39% of Xbone's sales. It seems that outside of the UK sales have dropped off tremendously. I remember someone saying in either the Jan or Feb NPD thread that the US' sales were greater than the rest of the world combined (can't find the post). Xbone is probably hovering around 4 million sales WW, no more than 4.2-3.

Well, that's what happens when it's over 50%. No need of a drop for that lol.

But yeah it's probable US contribution is raising for X1 sales and reducing for PS4.

 

[Exploratory]

It should do ok tho it has guns and looks xtreme.

Why do people keep perpetuating the idea that only dudebro extreme games sell well on Xbox?

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Sold in does mean shipped though. The verge are just idiots, but Polygon is correct.

Ironically this is highlighting a Naruto ideal in a stupidly funny fashion.

MS will always report the numbers that make them look the best. It's a smart business decision. Expect a lot of sold-in, "XboX family," and shipped.

But that will give a distorted image as to how well their product is actually performing. Before too long they could start drinking their own kool-aid and believe in these numbers to mean something they don't, and that'll make the snap back to reality even worst.

 

[Raoh]

But is it the stores themselves taking the loss from the pricecut or MS? If it is the stores they probably will lower the amount of units they order to make room for better selling products. This could lead to even shipped numbers significantly slowing down.

All businesses are different but I am assuming there is a loss prevention in place.

Making up numbers but lets assume the stores buy the X1's at $450 to make a $50 profit. But they haven't sold and MS is ready to send their next shipment. A clause should allow the stores to get a small check to allow a price cut, a price reduction on their next shipment, or take the loss and MS risks having a bad relationship with the retailer.

Its hard to say as each retailer and region could have their own different agreement.

 

[nynt9]

Why do people keep perpetuating the idea that only dudebro extreme games sell well on Xbox?

Because the top selling Xbox games are dudebro extreme games.

 

[Ivory Samoan]

Why do people keep perpetuating the idea that only dudebro extreme games sell well on Xbox?

They mostly do (numbers wise), EA sports have the sales figures to prove it.

Having said that, I'm not much of a sport gamer, except for bouts of Tiger Woods which is now a thing of the past......I miss decent Golf games.

Xbox will be fine sales wise, it's just the continuous PS4 comparisons that makes them seem weaker than they are really.

 

[artist]

Congrats MS .. for selling to retailers!

 

[Trojan]

Explains the console discounts. Retailers won't accept more shipments until their stock is cleared.

If MS is planning any SKU additions or changes (e.g. Kinect-less version), they could potentially have multiple-months of retailer backstock that they'll need to clear first. That obviously is problematic for Microsoft, particularly if they wanted to do an E3 reveal in that vein.

This is speculation, but It leads me to believe that MS would be more inclined to do an incremental price drop (maybe to $450) versus going with a Kinect-less SKU that would drive a more significant price drop (maybe to $400).

 

[Yasir]

Says you, next to this stuff I als speedskate and speedbike lol

So don't judge.

LOL I was kidding.

In a nasty sort of way; fatty

 

[serversurfer]

Xbox One is available in all those markets as well.

Just last week I saw several Titanfall bundles in a Tier-3 country that won't even be getting an official console release this year.

Ironically, those units are probably already counted as "sold" in a Tier-1 country.

 

[LowEndTorque]

At the end of December there were 3.9M X1 shipped and 3M sold. So 800-900k were sitting on store shelves. If we use that same ratio today, that puts sell through at ~4.1 - 4.2. The gap is closer the 3M than it is to 2M.

The Polygon and Verge tweets are either ignorance or intentionally misleading journalistic dishonesty. I don't think they're that ignorant/clueless, so I'm leaning towards the latter.

 

[Alpende]

Welp, Sony is winning. I live in a tier 2 country and some retailers offer Xbox One's. You can see them in stores while PS4's are sold out...

 

[DC R1D3R]

So probably 2 million were sold to customers and there are 3 million on shelves.

 

[sinnergy]

LOL I was kidding.

In a nasty sort of way; fatty

(^_^)¥

 

[PdotMichael]

Sure, the Microsoft PR department does have some well-etablished connections to several American videogame websites.

 

[Sean*O]

I think anyone who cares enough to pay attention to sales numbers will not be fooled, just makes MS look like slimy because the intent to dupe is obvious.

I think Sony has roughly doubled them in actual sales. Press releases like this and "we know what we're doing with the long game" comments are not going to broaden their appeal.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

No. How much do you think Sony is paying for free games for PS+? Billions? No, they are not.

Let's say gold reaches 30 million subscribers, for three years. At 60$ a pop, that's 1.8 billions per year, so 3 years makes 5.4 billions. Let's say they need to spend 20% of that to match Sony's offerings... that's over 1 billion dollars. Just for three years of games with gold on the bone. Note that ps+ is 4 bucks a month, 20% off that is 80 cents spent per month per user, which is a reasonable estimation.

So on top of reducing their projections because the bone is underperforming, they also have to swallow another billion at least in free games.

Let's say opening the apps to non-gold users loses them 10% of that. That's half a billion.

Total cost of your suggestions to microsoft, for only 3 years at 30 million subscribers, 1,5 billion dollars. And top of that, the years leading to that, and afterwards. Yeah, we're talking billions of lost revenue.

 

[Salvor.Hardin]

I love these bullshit comparison narratives you like to run with, what's next?

You're telling me the PS3 wasn't more expensive than the 360? And that the multiplatform games on the PS3 weren't underperforming for years compared to the 360? lolokaywhatever.

 

[Nightengale]

You're telling me the PS3 wasn't more expensive than the 360? And that the multiplatform games on the PS3 weren't underperforming for years compared to the 360? lolokaywhatever.

I think he was referring to the fact that PS3 got a lot of shit for 'shipped' numbers.

Heck, in more recent memories, Sony got a lot of shit when they started lumping PSP/Vita numbers in their quarterlies, because it's lame. ( and because of that, we'll probably not see PS4 shipment numbers yet because lol mixed up with PS3)

 

[serversurfer]

So I'll try my hand at estimating XB1 WW LTD based on previously released numbers thus will rely on some terrible assumptions I'm afraid

Xbox One: over 3 million sold to consumers in 2013

XB1 US LTD in 2013 = 909,132 [Nov. NPD] + 908,000 [Dec. NPD] = 1,817,132 units sold

1817/3000 = 0.6057 -> XB1 US sales for 2013 accounted for 60.57% of its WW sales

Thus with the new XB1 US LTD = 2,527,132

2527*(1/.6057) = 4172.26 -> Thus XB1 US LTD suggests XB1 WW LTD of 4,172,260

*Note I strongly feel that the XB1 sold better at launch in the rest of the world than it is currently doing since the last official WW sell-through number was given hence it is likely more than 60.57% of XB1 WW LTD sales are in the US

For instance if that number was now 65% [Less than 4% more than launch ratios], XB1 WW LTD would be 2527*(1/.65) = 3887.69 -> XB1 WW LTD of 3,887,690

I seriously think there's a decent chance XB1 WW LTD could be under 4M right now which is crazy

We might be able to get a better idea of what the "post-launch" sales ratios have been like. We know that since the end of 2013, they've shipped 1100K units. They sold 710K in the US Jan-Mar, which is about 65% of the shipment of 1100K. Although, it's possible/likely the 1100K shipment includes shipments for half of April. Assuming even shipments throughout the year, that would put them at ~943K shipped through March, meaning US sales represented about 75% of that shipment.

So if they sold 710K in the US, and that was 75% of their sales, they'd be at 947K worldwide Jan-Mar. Then again, it's entirely possible the US got 90% of the sales and 100% of the restock. Or 50% of the sales and 30% of the restock.

 

[JaggedSac]

Let's say gold reaches 30 million subscribers, for three years. At 60$ a pop, that's 1.8 billions per year, so 3 years makes 5.4 billions. Let's say they need to spend 20% of that to match Sony's offerings... that's over 1 billion dollars. Just for three years of games with gold on the bone. Note that ps+ is 4 bucks a month, 20% off that is 80 cents spent per month per user, which is a reasonable estimation.

So on top of reducing their projections because the bone is underperforming, they also have to swallow another billion at least in free games.

Let's say opening the apps to non-gold users loses them 10% of that. That's half a billion.

Total cost of your suggestions to microsoft, for only 3 years at 30 million subscribers, 1,5 billion dollars. And top of that, the years leading to that, and afterwards. Yeah, we're talking billions of lost revenue.

Going with the numbers you pulled from a hat, lol.

You think MS would pay $30 million a month for Games with Gold games?

You think 10% of Live subbers don't play MP and do it just for the apps? That seems rather high.

I say a decent Games with Gold program could bring in an additional 20% by targetting single player only gamers to offset the loss of this 10% of app only live subs.

Made up numbers, met with made up numbers

 

[nycgamer4ever]

To be fair there isnt exactly many games coming to PS4 that I would call "blockbusters" or that I would buy for mine.

The order I would call a Blockbuster unless RAD drops the ball, which I doubt, MLB the show is the ONLY baseball sim on either console, The last of us remaster (although a remaster) could very well be the best game this year. Those are enough for me this year, and E3 will bring more games for both consoles.

 

[Jomjom]

In my opinion I feel the xbone has better games... Consoles are the new fashion statements. Who care's if their comfortable, as long as it looks good.

I agree. I had infamous on till 3am last night, but it was just on the start menu cause I got caught up in staring at the sharp edges of the ps3. So damn chic.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I agree. I had infamous on till 3am last night, but it was just on the start menu cause I got caught up in staring at the sharp edges of the ps3. So damn chic.

I didn't buy my PS4 for games. I bought it to make a statement to everyone who comes over and sees it.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Going with the numbers you pulled from a hat, lol.

You think MS would pay $30 million a month for Games with Gold games?

You think 10% of Live subbers don't play MP and do it just for the apps? That seems rather high.

I say a decent Games with Gold program could bring in an additional 20% by targetting single player only gamers to offset the loss of this 10% of app only live subs.

Made up numbers, met with made up numbers

Hahaha fair enough =p

Hey, I'd be more than happy if the bone got games with gold, everyone deserves such an awesome program. I was just trying to show you that when it comes to these mass market devices, numbers get really high really fast.

 

[Surface of Me]

Ironically this is highlighting a Naruto ideal in a stupidly funny fashion.

But that will give a distorted image as to how well their product is actually performing. Before too long they could start drinking their own kool-aid and believe in these numbers to mean something they don't, and that'll make the snap back to reality even worst.

All companies do this, Sony was doing it back when the PS3 wasn't performing so well, that and lumping all numbers into the "Playstation Family".

 

[Squalor]

All companies do this, Sony was doing it back when the PS3 wasn't performing so well, that and lumping all numbers into the "Playstation Family".

It's not just in the game industry, either.

Samsung and Google only report shipped numbers when they release their smartphone data.

Apple always does sales to customers, though.