If we take this info, plus the fact that titanfall "bundles" were just reskinned vanilla xbox ones, plus the fact that the titanfall console never released, despite seeming designed for retail and being quite far along, I think it's safe to say Microsoft was expecting a lot more from the console, and they're NOT happy with the current results. They appear to have accumulated a lot of stock. They're gonna want to clear that out quickly, maybe through discounts, but if they want to lower the cost of the system permanently, most likely through lower production cost/removal of kinect, they're going to have to go through these boxes so they don't take too much of a bath on these already-manufactured systems. Combine that with the fact that they pretty much won't sell another vanilla Xbox One for 499 to anyone, due to how long bundles and retailer discounts have been around, I think they're kind of in trouble.
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Xbox One: 5 million units shipped to retailers
- Thread starter Chezzymann
- Start date
SwiftDeath
Member
We might be able to get a better idea of what the "post-launch" sales ratios have been like. We know that since the end of 2013, they've shipped 1100K units. They sold 710K in the US Jan-Mar, which is about 65% of the shipment of 1100K. Although, it's possible/likely the 1100K shipment includes shipments for half of April. Assuming even shipments throughout the year, that would put them at ~943K shipped through March, meaning US sales represented about 75% of that shipment.
So if they sold 710K in the US, and that was 75% of their sales, they'd be at 947K worldwide Jan-Mar. Then again, it's entirely possible the US got 90% of the sales and 100% of the restock. Or 50% of the sales and 30% of the restock.
Hmm based on the way XB1 software sales have been failing to chart in many PAL charts I strongly suspected that the US was now accounting for more of XB1's sales then during the launch months [Nov + Dec].
As of the 3M update, US XB1 sales accounted for ~60.57% of WW XB1 sales
And thus indicate at best [assumes ratio remains the same] WW XB1 sales are ~4.17M
However Mort has tweeted that a "very trusted source" of his, pegs WW XB1 sales at 4.4M - 4.55M
Mort is of course not the leaker he once was but I can't write off his claim so easily. It does however fly in the face of the launch sales ratios though
If we assume XB1 WW sales are 4.4M for a second then US XB1 sales only represent 57.43% [2527/4400] of WW XB1 sales. So a decrease of ~4% from launch numbers
I'm not sure I can believe that happening. Hmm
BuggeryBugz
Member
What makes you think they are reducing their projections? It's an honest question.
I think the xbox one is selling well enough, just not as well as the PS4. I'm pretty sure MS didn't expect the PS4 to sell so well but I don't think they would have projected selling more than what they are selling now. I'm sure they would like to be leading hardware sales but I don't think they are reducing their original projections.
-tetsuo-
Unlimited Capacity
I meant how there are a lot of people in PC threads with the LEAVING MONEY ON THE TABLE type of posts
SwiftDeath
Member
Microsoft aims for 40% market share in Germany
Titanfall XB1 is looking to have worse legs by quite a bit than Infamous in Germany
Combined with the last sales data
PS4 sold 250k, Xbox One 100k in Germany
And the lack of XB1 software charting in the PAL charts threads, I think it's easy to see MS expected XB1 to be doing better in PAL territories at least
The countries it's not available in are negligible sales-wise. Gap would be smaller but not by much...
Sword Of Doom
Member
Didn't they offer some amazing bundles in March? At this point I don't know if a simple price cut will do. They have a lot of issues. One of which is that they've still not recovered from the disaster that was E3. One big negative is having pretty much every feature of your console behind a paywall. Another major negative is the underpowered hardware which they can't do anything about at this point. So I don't think it's as simple as dropping the price. Another thing to consider is how many 360 owners felt abandoned the last couple of years. PS+ in addition to the amazing supply of first party titles from Sony is another factor. Microsoft needs to stop making short term decisions (throwing money at everything) and make some fundamental changes which of course will take time. This is what Sony did and it sure has paid off. I still think Microsoft reversing all of their policies was a mistake. At least back then they had a product with a clear vision and purpose. Now it's a product stuck in limbo. It's neither for core gamers nor for casuals.
Haha. I am actually very curious to see how much these free monthly games are costing both companies.
Why no grim fandango avatar anymore?
vpance
Member
Shipped or sold, the trajectory of Xbox One is flattening out:
Next Christmas will show to what tier both new consoles belong - God tier (Wii, PS2), Success tier (Xbox360, PS3) or Fail tier (Xbox, WiiU).
Judging by that graph it looks like Xbone would be lucky to sell 8-9 million by end of the holidays.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Well, turns out Manny is quite the popular fellow around here and there's several people with Manny avatars. It got quite weird when a guy with the EXACT SAME avatar as me was posting in the same thread as I was, arguing the opposite I was arguing. Even worse, browsing random threads on GAF whenever I saw the avatar I was like "hmm I don't remember posting this..." until I realized it was the other guy.
At the end, I decided for another more obscure but no less memorable Lucas Arts character.
Yeah, that is reasonable. PS4 will most likely reach 13+ [if supplies allow].
SquiddyCracker
Banned
Shipped or sold, the trajectory of Xbox One is flattening out:
Next Christmas will show to what tier both new consoles belong - God tier (Wii, PS2), Success tier (Xbox360, PS3) or Fail tier (Xbox, WiiU).
Looks like the Wii U is on an upward path whereas the Xbone is flatlining.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Around 250M$ worth of unsold stock sitting on shelves.
Xbone will not flatline like WiiU over summer, they will get every important third party game. Sure, PS4 versions of all those games will sell better, but Xbone will attract new users also.
agreed this console race you are very unlikely to see the Wii U do better than the XB1... that is a ship that is sinking fast, even with Mario's and Zelda's and other nintendo classic favs....
SquiddyCracker
Banned
CambriaRising
Member
Huh? Month for month they are both slowed comparatively. If you were to compare 14 months to 14 months then you might have a point.
Well 1.1m shipped in Q1, so if we assume the same for Q2/3 and I don't see a realistic reason why not, then 7.3m shipped at the end of September.
That's because we don't have the first 3 month of 2014 for WiiU. The upward path you are describing is the boost from Holidays 2013. Don't expect it to last (that's whats happening for the Xbox One)
I wonder, since MK8 is coming next month.
lmao
SwiftDeath
Member
Aren't the Wii U numbers in that graph shipped to retailers though?
So it's likely they have similar or more unsold stock than XB1 currently
So it's likely they have similar or more unsold stock than XB1 currently
This plan failed for 360. Doubt MS will revisit it.
jordan0386
Member
These six months cement that there will never be another console over $399 at launch.
Xbox sales are good. Just not as good as PS4.
Spencer and crew will either drop price or flood Xmas with IP. Whatever wasn't ready for the holidays, will be pushed up.
Xbox sales are good. Just not as good as PS4.
Spencer and crew will either drop price or flood Xmas with IP. Whatever wasn't ready for the holidays, will be pushed up.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Oswald is just dreaming as usual.
vpance
Member
Yeah, 9 may be possible with some holidays bundles and price cut again. MS must be furiously working on a Kinectless slim refresh model for next year.
funkystudent
Member
Random question.
Rumour was both MS and Sony where pumping out a million out of the factory each month for these things for this year.
So lets say that is true and lets be generous and say with recent sales MS was able to cut back on that 1 million a month number so instead of having 1.9 unshipped boxes for 2014 they only have about 1 million xbox ones unshipped to retailers.
Would MS be able to go back to that unshipped stock. Remove the Kinects and repackage them as a console only SKU and a sold separately Kinect and be super ready for a price slash at E3?
If you cant tell I know nothing about manufacturing / shipping.
Rumour was both MS and Sony where pumping out a million out of the factory each month for these things for this year.
So lets say that is true and lets be generous and say with recent sales MS was able to cut back on that 1 million a month number so instead of having 1.9 unshipped boxes for 2014 they only have about 1 million xbox ones unshipped to retailers.
Would MS be able to go back to that unshipped stock. Remove the Kinects and repackage them as a console only SKU and a sold separately Kinect and be super ready for a price slash at E3?
If you cant tell I know nothing about manufacturing / shipping.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes but it's a question of how much doing something like that would cost. I.E. is it better to try to move that stock through with a pricecut or save it for later if you are keeping a kinect SKU in play. Although storage costs on those unsold units will add up to I imagine
Mr. Waffle
Member
lot of outlets quoting this as 5 million sold... instead of shipped.
Well, to MS they are sold.
They are using correct terms though, sold-in vs sold-through. Some are also using
shipped vs. sold.
To be honest, I myself did not realize the existence of "sold-in" until yesterday's
thread.
They are sold to retailers.
DarkoMaledictus
Tier Whore
Uh oh, sold vs ship is very different. Mr M$, are you trying to pull a fast one on us?
Syphon Filter
Member
The sales arent good actually. 3.9 or 4.2 to consumer is poor especially after a longer than usual generation. They wouldn't be doing vouchers and price cuts with bundles already if that was the case.
psn
Member
Uh oh, sold vs ship is very different. Mr M$, are you trying to pull a fast one on us?
They use whatever sounds better for them. We all would do the same imo.
I think just as big of an issue for MS is how many of those Xbox One owners also own PS4's, and will be and are choosing multi-plats for the PS4.
And that will continue to be an even bigger problem in the future. Many are buying PS4 first and waiting for more exclusives and an Xbox One price drop.
But there is still big revenue coming in from their console sales.. 25% more cash per purchase.. and Xbox fans in general are known for consuming a lot of software. Still lots of hope for a great generation for MS, and really good chance for at least a decent one. A lot of doom and gloom doesn't seem warranted to me.
And that will continue to be an even bigger problem in the future. Many are buying PS4 first and waiting for more exclusives and an Xbox One price drop.
But there is still big revenue coming in from their console sales.. 25% more cash per purchase.. and Xbox fans in general are known for consuming a lot of software. Still lots of hope for a great generation for MS, and really good chance for at least a decent one. A lot of doom and gloom doesn't seem warranted to me.
SwiftDeath
Member
Not to mention that if there is a strong propensity to consume [buy] multi-platform games on the PS4, there is also a higher propensity to buy PS+ than Gold. Assuming a disinterest in paying two subs would imply further propensity to buy multiplats on PS4
The saving grace for gold might be the appeal of MS's exclusive multiplayer games and the Live requirement. But of course those games often have expiration dates of appeal as well. A good mix of sought after online and offline experiences is what they need, and sooner than later if they really want to compete well with Sony. I think they can make a profitable worthwhile investment out of Xbox One while being beat handily by Sony, but if they want to have any chance of dominating or even being neck and neck they need to really ramp up quick their momentum.
Their services / features should mature as well, but Sony is offering some good competition in that arena as well.
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm I'm convinced MS came into this gen planning all their big moves around being 2nd and if they happened to be first in HW numbers great.
Some comments they've made here or there suggest they intended on being #1 WW but I don't think they planned on it absolutely. I think they planned on getting 2nd and monetizing a segment of more profitable consumers more effectively than Sony could
That being said I cannot imagine MS expected to be losing in the US or even the UK so I do think they are probably behind their projections by 1 million or two units
Yeah I've always felt their strategy of charging for Live was about that. They don't want consumers unwilling to pay a subscription fee, or at the very least, don't care as much about them. It's not about pure number of consumers, it's about a lot of "quality" consumers. I think that was also their always online strategy that got ditched too. They COULD HAVE designed it from the start to support most of their planned features, and still allowed you to play offline. Disable sharing, requires your disk, etc. Hell if they were that worried about the idea of people sharing/trading/selling disks outside of their monopolized aftermarket idea they could require a one-time online activation. But no, they made it always online tactically.. to try to filter out consumers. If you are willing to buy an always online device you are probably looking to consume a lot of online content.. buy a Live account, etc.
But last gen they also generally had the price advantage. They went with the initial appearance of value and then had all kinds of after-purchase markup that really drove up the profits.
This time they went with this almost Apple-like "big profit per sale, you'll pay for it because of our alleged superior design not the hardware" approach.
It can still work, as you say, their strategy might not be to win any "race" other than a race to profitability.. increased Windows 8 sales, Windows Phone sales, etc. also could tie into why they don't care to win the console race.
But I also think it's quite possible they thought they could have it all. Huge sales at big prices and another general "win" when it comes to multi-platform purcahses.
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
because of laws and such.
elkniwcire
Member
I knew there would be a difference between the two sales wise, but damn not THIS much of difference. Glad my friends talked me into switching to PS4 last minute.
Not that I'm going to argue the Xbone is better then the PS4 (I own both and the PS4 easily trumps it), but does sales data really impact how much you enjoy a console that much? I still love my Wii U and its selling like dirt. I love my Neo Geo Pocket Color and that only sold a few million units before being discontinued after a few years. Like many core gamers I love my Dreamcast and that didn't sell like crazy.
And the sales for the Xbone aren't bad enough to prevent third party support, especially when porting from the PS4 is super easy this generation even if it does lead to a resolution downgrade.
Well, it means you're probably more likely to get exclusives from smaller/indie devs who can only really afford to support one console (at least initially, anyway). On the other hand, this might make MS more likely to buy exclusivity to some AA doubles (though it'd be expensive as hell for them now). More than anything though, I think its nice to have the leading console because it makes it more likely your friends will buy it/have it (obviously this doesn't matter if all of your friends are early adopters, but thats not very common at all).
dodgykebaab
Banned
S¡mon;108562131 said:
Oh god, I didn't realise it was that bad!