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Xbox Series S/X consoles only sold 1.7 million this year
- Thread starter RetroGamingUK
- Start date
CobraAB
Member
It certainly does not seem like it...
And they are already talking about a new one.
Oh please MS....Give it up.
VolticArchangel
Member
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thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
He hath been summoned. No sources, no methodology. Just contrarian, slyly disingenuous speculation.
Also cheekily insinuates the VGChartz and Kepler numbers were for US only. Pretty sure you could infer them for global numbers by safely adding another 20%, particularly to Kepler's number. VGChartz probably has that 20% baked in considering they always overestimate Xbox sales numbers quite generously.
And now I'm going to tear apart Welfare's methodology. It's outdated, plain and simple. He's going by sales trends, market sentiment and buyer habits that may've been true for Xbox 10 years ago, even five years ago, but are not true today.
He doesn't factor in general shifts of sentiment towards the brand due to hardware price increases, decreased ads, decreased ad time & marketing venues, subscription service price increases, collapse of WOM, collapse of the "network effect" (friends jumping in convincing other friends to jump in, etc.), and since 2024, the severe drop in enthusiasm among most of the hardcore fanbase.
You aren't getting the regional shares he's talking about here, it's simply impossible. But like I said, his methodology is based 10 years in the past, assuming for factors that either no long exist for Xbox or have been incredibly weakened over the past several years. But Welfare will be the last person to realize or admit this.
A perfect example of exactly what I was just talking about. His methodology's based on outdated thinking that assumes factors encapsulating and surrounding the brand have remained stagnant in spite of everything showing they haven't.
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My numbers are estimate from the latest production data I have (late 2023/early 2024) and the general downwards trend for Xbox sales following all the bad news for Xbox (3rd party strategy, price increases, game cancellations).
He hath been summoned. No sources, no methodology. Just contrarian, slyly disingenuous speculation.
Also cheekily insinuates the VGChartz and Kepler numbers were for US only. Pretty sure you could infer them for global numbers by safely adding another 20%, particularly to Kepler's number. VGChartz probably has that 20% baked in considering they always overestimate Xbox sales numbers quite generously.
And now I'm going to tear apart Welfare's methodology. It's outdated, plain and simple. He's going by sales trends, market sentiment and buyer habits that may've been true for Xbox 10 years ago, even five years ago, but are not true today.
He doesn't factor in general shifts of sentiment towards the brand due to hardware price increases, decreased ads, decreased ad time & marketing venues, subscription service price increases, collapse of WOM, collapse of the "network effect" (friends jumping in convincing other friends to jump in, etc.), and since 2024, the severe drop in enthusiasm among most of the hardcore fanbase.
You aren't getting the regional shares he's talking about here, it's simply impossible. But like I said, his methodology is based 10 years in the past, assuming for factors that either no long exist for Xbox or have been incredibly weakened over the past several years. But Welfare will be the last person to realize or admit this.
A perfect example of exactly what I was just talking about. His methodology's based on outdated thinking that assumes factors encapsulating and surrounding the brand have remained stagnant in spite of everything showing they haven't.
I could be wrong ofc, but Welfare's number seem very optimistic, particularly that 500k non-US/EU considering Xbox isn't even sold in places like South America and Middle East anymore.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Welfare and Kepler are both following sales trends for their estimates.
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Mownoc
Member
And I'd bet my fat ass that keplers numbers are too low and welfares are too high.Welfare and Kepler are both following sales trends for their estimates.
Isn't this the logic that caused him to give the 37 million units fantasy numbers? Assuming that outside of US sales hadn't completely collapsed much harder than US sales? That we are still in the glory days when outside US xbox sales were in fact 40% etc of total sales. That hasn't happened in a long long time....
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
However, only one has access to production numbers.Welfare and Kepler are both following sales trends for their estimates.
Baki
Member
The real question, is , with demand completely collapsing, and retails unlikely to stock a $650 Series X. At what point do they slow production to a complete stall.
Darkness_Arises
Member
This is the new SonyToo. There is no equivalence between a serial inflater of Xbox numbers with flawed methodology and someone with close knowledge of AMD production numbers. That will not stop the FUD generators on this or the purple forum though.
OLED_Gamer
Member
Such a shame. The console itself is damn good.
if its damn good, it would be a success. the market forces dont lie.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
"hE DIDN'T SAY THE NICE EXCHBAWHKS THINGIES i WANTED hiM tO sAY!!"
Basically what he just said. Funny how quickly he's willing to believe Welfare though, who is a known staunch Xbox fan and has overshot his Xbox numbers multiple times throughout the years. So if he exhibits the same problems as VGChartz, why are you taking what he says on the topic at face value?
Yeah and, like I was speaking to earlier, I don't think Welfare's are taking into consideration the market effects of Microsoft's own business decisions around Xbox the past 12-16 months.
They've spent two TGAs in a row telling hundreds of millions they don't need an Xbox to play their games; there is zero chance people just continue their purchasing habits around the brand as usual in the face of such messaging.
The X is, I'd agree. Solid power, great form factor, solid engineering, (was) good value-for-money.
The Series S should have never been released. Or not in the form it was. I'd almost argue it's effectively MS's 32X.
It should've either been a portable or what Project Keystone was going to be before they shelved that.
Exact same logic, yes. The last time Non US/UK were 40% of Xbox's sales is probably 2021, maybe edging into early 2022, when PS5 supply was still low.
Since then ROTW's had a gradual collapse in sales and it's likely massively accelerated this year with all the business changes.
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I used to believe you.VGChartz number but it isn't that far off
US sales alone are >1.1M as of November.
lol
OLED_Gamer
Member
Its failing because it has no unique software that makes it appealing. The console itself is great.
Nintendo and PS have legit exclusives. Xbox's games can be had elsewhere.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
I don't need to be an insider to see that Xbox Series numbers are actually flatlined in EU, died in Asia and ceased to be in the US. This in an ex-Box.
It's not hard to sum up publically available sales data+substract percentages for USA. You don't need to hold MBA/ PHD/insider information for that.
All that considered, I'd say 1 million is a very positive estimate from K KeplerL2 .
It's not hard to sum up publically available sales data+substract percentages for USA. You don't need to hold MBA/ PHD/insider information for that.
All that considered, I'd say 1 million is a very positive estimate from K KeplerL2 .
Xbox series x: Nov. 2023 - $349.....
It doesn't seem so. Do they want you to buy a sub and play on ur TV or computer? Yeah. Xbox? Sure doesn't look like theyre trying too hard.
Disco Dave
Member
Jaybe
Member
He hath been summoned. No sources, no methodology. Just contrarian, slyly disingenuous speculation.
Also cheekily insinuates the VGChartz and Kepler numbers were for US only. Pretty sure you could infer them for global numbers by safely adding another 20%, particularly to Kepler's number. VGChartz probably has that 20% baked in considering they always overestimate Xbox sales numbers quite generously.
And now I'm going to tear apart Welfare's methodology. It's outdated, plain and simple. He's going by sales trends, market sentiment and buyer habits that may've been true for Xbox 10 years ago, even five years ago, but are not true today.
He doesn't factor in general shifts of sentiment towards the brand due to hardware price increases, decreased ads, decreased ad time & marketing venues, subscription service price increases, collapse of WOM, collapse of the "network effect" (friends jumping in convincing other friends to jump in, etc.), and since 2024, the severe drop in enthusiasm among most of the hardcore fanbase.
You aren't getting the regional shares he's talking about here, it's simply impossible. But like I said, his methodology is based 10 years in the past, assuming for factors that either no long exist for Xbox or have been incredibly weakened over the past several years. But Welfare will be the last person to realize or admit this.
A perfect example of exactly what I was just talking about. His methodology's based on outdated thinking that assumes factors encapsulating and surrounding the brand have remained stagnant in spite of everything showing they haven't.
Welfare's methodology has been screwed up and erred to overestimation for years. He mistakingly added in controllers and accessories to his calculation where he divides by an estimated average selling price. The average selling price is often too low. And they he uses percentage changes on his overestimated bases when he needs to. His 37 million estimate put him into joke territory. Further for some reason he still things Xbox is selling some fair amount outside the US which everyone looking at Europe sales numbers and retail store shelves knows is bunk.
Edit- we should also get Kepler's numbers as an update in the title
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Lightbreak
Member
Only? 1.7 millions Xboxes sound a lot to me with what's happening at Microsoft Gaming
tylrdiablos
Member
Seeing a lot of words like "seemingly" and "estimates" - which renders the entire article/discussion pointless.
Gamer King
Neo Member
I believe Surface is small scale.
leo-j
Member
I think it's closer to 1-1.2 million…I also think they barely exceeded 30 M sales to date. The console isn't selling much during the holidays either so idk if it will exceed 35 M LTD sales. Do I expect it to be discontinued in 2026? TBH if Microsoft is actually serious about keeping a console moving forward I expect an XBOX next in 2026 a year or so earlier than the ps6.
xBlueStonex
Member
Xbox guy here for over two decades - there really isn't a reason to buy an Xbox right now. No new hardware since 2020, same controller since 2013, no UI changes for years (and it was already dated back then). Add in multiple price raises and no console exclsives and you have a recipe for diaster. Microsoft being radio silent on all of this only makes it worse. Definitely the lowest point I've ever seen for Xbox as a brand.
DeltaPolarBear
Member
Nintendo recovered from bad hardware because they still had good software. Microsoft had bad software and can't improve because they literally don't know what good games look like. Xbox Seires X is fine as a machine, but without the games it is pointless. Hi-Fi Rush being treated like a worthless IP is all the evidence you need to see that Xbox doesn't have any leader who actually play games.
Baemono
Gold Member
it was supposed to be this generation
DEAD ORIGINAL
Member
VG chartz as a source 
Fun fact they all stink of shit over there.
Fun fact they all stink of shit over there.
Ar¢tos
Member
Can we summon
Gavon West
while we are at it?
I'd love to hear his insights on the current state of Xbox...
Gavon West
while we are at it?I'd love to hear his insights on the current state of Xbox...
Yes but it didnt used to be. It is on a timer imo
Unknown?
Member
AlsoCan we summon
I'd love to hear his insights on the current state of Xbox...
Riky
(he hasn't posted in awhile)
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Baemono
Gold Member
Why not summon D DestinRL then ? He knows bestCan we summon
I'd love to hear his insights on the current state of Xbox...
demigod
Member
Can we summon
I'd love to hear his insights on the current state of Xbox...
I'd bet my left nut those guys are on alts.Also
Unknown?
Member
Or maybe just waiting for the fabled, "Next Year!"
yurinka
Member
VGChartz worldwide numbers are always fake and always biased: their Xbox estimate is always way above the real number, and their PS estimate is always way under the real number.
It wasn't the number of consoles, it was including other things like accesories and non-Xbox devices.
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Zacfoldor
Gold Member
In my opinion vgchartz is fine. Data isn't 100 percent but it is adjusted with new data and when the Xbox numbers were accidentally revealed that time they were pretty close on those too. Frankly, they are close enough for me.VG chartz as a source
Fun fact they all stink of shit over there.
Seems an easy thing to track and check and it is. Not rocket science. Xbox sales ARE dead.
If they are banned here or something this is not my hill to die on, but I don't personally have an issue with vgchartz.
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PropellerEar
Member
DirkMagusDCXIX@fanfic.xbox.com
DarkMage619
also missing for a long time
DarkMage619
also missing for a long time
PropellerEar
Member
Vgchartz was a banned source here at some point of time?
dragonyeuw
Member
IMHO the RAM price spike gives them a legitimate PR out to back out of releasing another console. Whatever they're heavily rumored to be launching( PC/console hybrid) was already likely to be north of $1000 before RAM rose into the stratosphere.
Of course, being a major player in the A.I arms race that's front and center of the RAM issue is a special irony.
Mownoc
Member
This just isn't true lol. They had Xbox One millions below when it was revealed it had actually sold 58m. They aren't routinely under on PS either and always update to be inline with official figures.
Xbox is always going to be the highly questionable number because MS keep it hidden. Mostly because of how bad their sales are.