Support NeoGAF

[Azelover]

This article is so 2006 / early 2007.

Yeah, I'd say it's probably more 2006. The reason why articles like those stopped popping up is not because of the product or the present or the company, it's because of promise in the future. It's only natural that once it becomes clear that the promises were empty, that these articles will start popping up again, they're not perpetually gone at all

 

[jimbo]

I've seen lots of fanboy wishful thinking in this forum but this guy is second to none. Amazing.

Or perhaps a bit of common sense + 1st grade math skills.

If it can do OVER 20 million by the end of its first 3 years WITHOUT a price drop, with reliability issue that caused a lot of bad press, a huge SKU confusion, and and a lot of uncertainty for the first 2 years of its life..............could it do 20 million in its final 3 years at a cheaper price and a very well established library and value, without its reliability issues?

Hmmmmm.....Yeah it takes a real visionary to see that one.


You do realize it does ~5 million just during the holiday season world wide, right?

You're insane if you think Microsoft will enjoy >= 1.42 million unit lead over the PS3 in the next 4 months.

I am not putting a number on it I am just saying there WILL be a YTD gap, just in favor of the 360. By how much is anyone's guess and it depends on the price drop itself. It SHOULD do more than the 360 did last year, weather the PS3 sees an increase over its 2007 is the big if here. How well will the PS3 do this year compared to last year? That's what's going to decide by how far it will fall behind.

 

[Private Hoffman]

I am not putting a number on it I am just saying there WILL be a YTD gap, just in favor of the 360. By how much is anyone's guess and it depends on the price drop itself. It SHOULD do more than the 360 did last year, weather the PS3 sees an increase over its 2007 is the big if here. How well will the PS3 do this year?

But you are putting a number on it when you say this:

Gap: 1,420,000

All that started in September with Halo 3.

This year will be no different

I'm sorry, but even if the 360 manages to have a YTD lead over the PS3 in the US thanks to the price drop, it will still be WAY different than last year. A few hundred thousand lead (at most), is not the same as nearly 1.5 million units.

Whether the PS3 sees an increase over 2007 is not a big if; it's been consistently doing almost 100% better than last year nearly every single month of 2008.

 

[AndyD]

Or perhaps a bit of common sense + 1st grade math skills.

If it can do OVER 20 million by the end of its first 3 years WITHOUT a price drop, with reliability issue that caused a lot of bad press, a huge SKU confusion, and and a lot of uncertainty for the first 2 years of its life..............could it do 20 million in its final 3 years at a cheaper price and a very well established library and value, without its reliability issues?

Maybe, maybe not. You forget that one of those years it was the only console on the market. So you realistically have to look at year 2 and 3, which are weak by comparison.

 

[damisa]

Maybe, maybe not. You forget that one of those years it was the only console on the market. So you realistically have to look at year 2 and 3, which are weak by comparison.

umm...360 sold better in years 2 and 3 than in year 1. The majority of people have no idea what they're talking about sales wise. Seriously, if you don't know, don't just make things up.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

So...45 million in Xbox 360 sales before the end of 2011 is what you're saying?

I say less. Anyone want to take me up on that? (I'm projecting the PS3 at less than that as well)

I agree.

If this generation actually does last longer then I can see that being a little low, but for a five to six year lifespan? I think you've got the top end of what we can expect from the PS3 and 360.

I'd say between those two platforms we'll likely see unit sales of 30-35 million units (360) and anywhere from 30-40 million units (PS3).

Wii could be anywhere from 90-150 million units when all is said and done.

 

[jimbo]

Maybe, maybe not. You forget that one of those years it was the only console on the market. So you realistically have to look at year 2 and 3, which are weak by comparison.

1. It actually had the worst holiday season when it was the only console on the market, back on '06.
2. The 360's really only enjoyed 2 good holiday seasons in 3 years, since the first one was a complete failure due to shortages.
3. It had better sales YoY since it's had competition.

Through August(US hardware sales):

2006= 1,557, 000
2007= 1,695, 000
2008= 1,742, 000

What, it sold better WITH competition?
YES, it did.


PS: It looks the same in Japan too.

But you are putting a number on it when you say this:

I'm sorry, but even if the 360 manages to have a YTD lead over the PS3 in the US thanks to the price drop, it will still be WAY different than last year. A few hundred thousand lead (at most), is not the same as nearly 1.5 million units

.


No I am not. That was just to show there is no point in celebrating that the PS3 has OUSTOLD the 360 for the year, because the year is not over, and that shows what the 360 can do in term of sales during holidays. The difference will depend on just how big of an effect the price drop will have and just how much better will the PS3 do over the holidays. At this point, it is anyone's guess.

I mean I guess, it's a little too early for some to take this so you can still celebrate that idea until either September or October. I was just trying to soften the blow for some of you.

 

[AndyD]

umm...360 sold better in years 2 and 3 than in year 1. The majority of people have no idea what they're talking about sales wise. Seriously, if you don't know, don't just make things up.

I didnt mean compared to year 1.:lol Of course sales ought to increase year over year. It woudl be awful if sales immediately declined the year after it launched and the third year as well. What I meant is that year 1, a year without competition should have been far better. So that building up from year 1 is actually significant.

 

[jimbo]

I didnt mean compared to year 1.:lol Of course sales ought to increase year over year. It woudl be awful if sales immediately declined the year after it launched and the third year as well. What I meant is that year 1, a year without competition should have been far better. So that building up from year 1 is actually significant.

If anything that proves it CAN do better in its final 3 years than its first 3 years because its first year on the market was a dud, by your viewpoint.

That actually worked against your argument.

 

[jimbo]

I agree.

If this generation actually does last longer then I can see that being a little low, but for a five to six year lifespan? I think you've got the top end of what we can expect from the PS3 and 360.

I'd say between those two platforms we'll likely see unit sales of 30-35 million units (360) and anywhere from 30-40 million units (PS3).

Wii could be anywhere from 90-150 million units when all is said and done.

So you think after this holiday season(which should put the 360 LTD at around ~23million), for the next 3 years, the 360 will average only 2.3 - 4.3 million a year world wide? Really? REALLY?

Do you seriously believe what you are saying?

 

[thuway]

Quick someone post a pic of your attractive girlfriend or relatives. It'll serve as a peace treaty. It worked in the last NPD thread. :lol

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

PS3 needs a good price drop and some good games. I was a huge PS1/PS2 fanboy but PS3 is a joke next to the 360 thus far imho. Graphics are the same.. library is nowhere close.. 360 owns the online component. The only reason PS3 is more expensive is because of Blu Ray and I couldn't care less about that.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

So you think after this holiday season(which should put the 360 LTD at around ~23million), for the next 3 years, the 360 will average only 2.3 - 4.3 million a year world wide? Really? REALLY?

Do you seriously believe what you are saying?

I don't see what's wrong with that assertion.

Years 4 and 5 of losing consoles tend to be lower then prior years. Aside from some bursts. And that all depends on when the console dies. I left that portion open.

If it lives as long as the GameCube or N64 I expect to level right around the area I said (30-35 million units). If the generation continues a few years longer it could hit the 40 million unit mark.

I expect that it won't though. Rarely do console manufacturers stick with a losing piece of hardware.

If it's any consolation I expect Sony to be the first of the three to announce a new console.

 

[Spiegel]

You do realize it does ~5 million just during the holiday season world wide, right?

What the fuck?

No

5+ million is Wii territory

 

[jimbo]

Quick someone post a pic of your attractive girlfriend or relatives. It'll serve as a peace treaty. It worked in the last NPD thread. :lol

I would but that would cause even more hate.

 

[AndyD]

If anything that proves it CAN do better in its final 3 years than its first 3 years because its first year on the market was a dud, by your viewpoint.

That actually worked against your argument.

Not quite. The peak of sales seems to be around the end of year 3, halfway through 4, and after that it decreases for every year after. This seems to have been true of the PS1, PS2, Game Cube and Xbox, and I don't see why it would not be true of the current generation.

You assume that it will steadily increase in sales permanently, but that is not the case. Not realistically and not yet anyway.

So the 360 will hit that peak in theory this holiday and in the spring, the Wii and PS3 a year after that. So that is why I think sales in the year 4-6 are likely to be less than year 3.

But its all academic. Realistically all console are doing very well, far better and far more even than any generation so far.

 

[patsu]

Wow... still at it ?

No matter how many units 360 sell this holiday, PS3 will do just fine. They are different enough and PS3 games appeal to different folks. Both companies are experienced and smart enough to leverage on their strength.

And yes Jimbo, you can post your girl friend's image.

 

[painful fart]

I don't see what's wrong with that assertion.

Years 4 and 5 of losing consoles tend to be lower then prior years. Aside from some bursts. And that all depends on when the console dies. I left that portion open.

If it lives as long as the GameCube or N64 I expect to level right around the area I said (30-35 million units). If the generation continues a few years longer it could hit the 40 million unit mark.

I expect that it won't though. Rarely do console manufacturers stick with a losing piece of hardware.

If it's any consolation I expect Sony to be the first of the three to announce a new console.

I understand your way of reasoning, but I think you are overlooking that the Video game market has been and still is growing at break-neck speed.

 

[Karma]

So...45 million in Xbox 360 sales before the end of 2011 is what you're saying?

I say less. Anyone want to take me up on that? (I'm projecting the PS3 at less than that as well)

We have 14 Quarters until the end of 2011. The 360 will ship at it`s current rate 46 million units by the end of 2011. The PS3 will ship at it`s current rate 43 million units by the end of 2011.

Those are shipped numbers but since will do not get full European numbers that is the best we can do.

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

I think this all goes back to the fact that the PS3 is clearly not the PS2. I don't think this is news to anyone.

Wii has it in the bag, the PS3 will eventually take second and 360 will get a close third.

Funnily enough, I play my consoles in the opposite order. In the end, Microsoft will be a LOT closer to Sony this gen than Sony would have liked. I think it's funny that for two generations Sony has kicked ass with a bare bones console that gave you NOTHING in terms of dollar value (ie. no support for 4 players, memory cards, no online etc) and now that they FINALLY give you a console with EVERYTHING including the kitchen sink, they're coming third.

Go figure.

 

[afternoon delight]

This thread delivers. I don't know what's sadder, the ranting and arguing for this many posts, or that I took the time to read it all. :lol

 

[lordg]

If I could only own 1 system, I would of chosen the Xbox 360.

Fortunately I own all 3.

I haven't touched my PS3 since MGS4.

 

[jimbo]

Not quite. The peak of sales seems to be around the end of year 3, halfway through 4, and after that it decreases for every year after. This seems to have been true of the PS1, PS2, Game Cube and Xbox, and I don't see why it would not be true of the current generation.

You assume that it will steadily increase in sales permanently, but that is not the case. Not realistically and not yet anyway.

So the 360 will hit that peak in theory this holiday and in the spring, the Wii and PS3 a year after that. So that is why I think sales in the year 4-6 are likely to be less than year 3.

But its all academic. Realistically all console are doing very well, far better and far more even than any generation so far.

This generation is nothing like the previous ones. Why do people keep missing the point neither the PS3 nor the 360 is at a mass market price point after 3 years?

The one thing all of those consoles had in common was a $100 price drop within their first 2 years. They were ALL at $199 or under before entering their 3rd year. There's only ONE 360 SKU at $199, and it's not the main one.

 

[painful fart]

I haven't touched my PS3 since MGS4.

Sounds kind of ignorant that you don´t even bother to check out the stuff coming out on the PSN. But everyone to each own.

 

[Dizzan]

If I could only own 1 system, I would of chosen the Xbox 360.

Fortunately I own all 3.

I haven't touched my PS3 since MGS4.

WTF??? :lol :lol Totally irrelevant to the "debate" in her. Out of fucking left field.

This thread brings out the best in Gaf.

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

Sounds kind of ignorant that you don´t even bother to check out the stuff coming out on the PSN. But everyone to each own.

Clearly doesn't own Uncharted.

Ratchet and Clank QFB is pretty fuck awesome.

But I've been playing a shitload of Viva Pinata 2

 

[jimbo]

Wow... still at it ?

No matter how many units 360 sell this holiday, PS3 will do just fine. They are different enough and PS3 games appeal to different folks. Both companies are experienced and smart enough to leverage on their strength.

And yes Jimbo, you can post your girl friend's image.

I would rather not. I have seen what others have ran into with some of the guys on this forum and photoshop. :lol There's a bunch of perverted little fuckers on here.

 

[AndyD]

This generation is nothing like the previous ones. Why do people keep missing the point neither the PS3 nor the 360 is at a mass market price point after 3 years?

The one thing all of those consoles had in common was a $100 price drop within their first 2 years. They were ALL at $199 or under before entering their 3rd year. There's only ONE 360 SKU at $199, and it's not the main one.

Adjust for inflation over a decade ago and everyone agrees that both the X360 and the Wii are at mass market price points. And saying that the X360's sku at 199 does not count is quite opposite from what everyone is trumpeting all over, that its 199, regardless of its shortcomings or whatever.:lol People cant argue that the X360 is 199 vs PS3 and Wii and thats amazing, but yet say, its not really 199, when it comes to sales numbers.

After all games are 60 and we are not saying well, they sold better when they were 50, or 100 in the old days...

The point is that after a certain amount of time, the peak is hit, regardless of price. Even the PS2 started plateauing after year 3, and it kept dropping in price and getting AAA titles. Saturation has a lot to do with it.

I think X360 will see its peak this year or spring, and will stagnate or decrease from then on. Not because its too expensive, or lacks games, but simply due to saturation of the market. Nothing against it, but thats the logical trend.

 

[patsu]

I would rather not. I have seen what others have ran into with some of the guys on this forum and photoshop. :lol There's a bunch of perverted little fuckers on here.

Bah ! I thought you wanted to.

Both MS and Sony are not stupid. They will do whatever is necessary and sufficient to lock in their positions. That short Yahoo! video and those before it really just tell me Yahoo! is in deeper trouble. It has become a very shallow news site.

I think they really should consider joining force with MSN.

 

[FrankT]

Adjust for inflation over a decade ago and everyone agrees that both the X360 and the Wii are at mass market price points. And saying that the X360's sku at 199 does not count is quite opposite from what everyone is trumpeting all over, that its 199, regardless of its shortcomings or whatever.:lol People cant argue that the X360 is 199 vs PS3 and Wii and thats amazing, but yet say, its not really 199, when it comes to sales numbers.

After all games are 60 and we are not saying well, they sold better when they were 50, or 100 in the old days...

The point is that after a certain amount of time, the peak is hit, regardless of price. Even the PS2 started plateauing after year 3, and it kept dropping in price and getting AAA titles. Saturation has a lot to do with it.

I think X360 will see its peak this year or spring, and will stagnate or decrease from then on. Not because its too expensive, or lacks games, but simply due to saturation of the market. Nothing against it, but thats the logical trend.

Not even close. If that were remotely the case the 360 would not be seeing YoY increases.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I understand your way of reasoning, but I think you are overlooking that the Video game market has been and still is growing at break-neck speed.

The majority of that growth is seemingly coming from two main sources. The DS and Wii.

Both HD systems are acting like N64s. They've got their place, and heck they might even sell a lot of games, but they aren't the Playstation(Wii).

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

This thread delivers. I don't know what's sadder, the ranting and arguing for this many posts, or that I took the time to read it all. :lol

My only day off and this is how I'm spending it.
=(

 

[Kestastrophe]

Clearly doesn't own Uncharted.

I heard the multiplayer is awesome

 

[jimbo]

Adjust for inflation over a decade ago and everyone agrees that both the X360 and the Wii are at mass market price points. And saying that the X360's sku at 199 does not count is quite opposite from what everyone is trumpeting all over, that its 199, regardless of its shortcomings or whatever.:lol People cant argue that the X360 is 199 vs PS3 and Wii and thats amazing, but yet say, its not really 199, when it comes to sales numbers.

After all games are 60 and we are not saying well, they sold better when they were 50, or 100 in the old days...

The point is that after a certain amount of time, the peak is hit, regardless of price. Even the PS2 started plateauing after year 3, and it kept dropping in price and getting AAA titles. Saturation has a lot to do with it.

I think X360 will see its peak this year or spring, and will stagnate or decrease from then on. Not because its too expensive, or lacks games, but simply due to saturation of the market. Nothing against it, but thats the logical trend.

Well I can't speak for everyone, but I am not. And I have heard some people saying the Arcade is finally a GOOD VALUE and should help with sales, but I haven't really seen anyone that's said it replaces the premium as the definite SKU. It may replace the Elite because you can get a bigger hard drive and come out cheaper, but not the Premium.

And yes the 360 WILL have a peak, but to say it's going to be this year or early next year just becase that's how it's been in the past, is overlooking a lot of factors, the biggest one being this generation is nohing like the other begining with Wii vs HD, and insanely high introductory prices.

The fact is there were 125,000,000-150,000,000 videogamers last generation. And while the Wii may see insane sales, I still believe the majority of those people haven't yet bought a 360 or a PS3 and they will. It's just a matter of time. Otherwise, the PS2 wouldn't STILL be selling like it is. Obviously consoles with a huge library, great games at a sub $200 price point can go a long way.

The Wii is in no way shape or form what the PS2 was as a videogame system in anything other than sales. That is why people are STILL buying the PS2.
.

 

[Metalmurphy]

I heard the multiplayer is awesome

Games don't need to have multiplayer...

 

[Regulus Tera]

Games don't need to have multiplayer...

But they are more fun when they do. =O

 

[Kestastrophe]

Games don't need to have multiplayer...

No shit, but why else would he have picked up Uncharted since MGS4?

 

[Dizzan]

I heard the multiplayer is awesome

Who the fuck says things like this? :lol

This thread is very entertaining

 

[Metalmurphy]

No shit, but why else would he have picked up Uncharted since MGS4?

Trophies.

I finished it 5 times, it's just that good.

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

No shit, but why else would he have picked up Uncharted since MGS4?

He wouldn't have picked it up.

But since the update, the trophies are a reason to go back for AT LEAST one more playthrough, if not more.

 

[timetokill]

Thread should be retitled to "LTTP: Yahoo"

 

[thuway]

 

[Kagari]

But they are more fun when they do. =O

Highly debatable.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Oh man. :lol What's that from?

 

[Metalmurphy]

Oh man. :lol What's that from?

Some silly Indian TV show, apparently the guy got beaten up by 20 men afterwards

 

[CurseoftheGods]

Some silly Indian TV show, apparently the guy got slapped up by 20 men afterwards

Fixed.

 

[thuway]

Oh man. :lol What's that from?

I tell you, its a hit. I love his face right before. Its so perfect.

 

[jrricky]

WTF did he do, and what did she say to him?:lol

Oh and this thread is hilarious.

 

[Johann]

How could Yahoo say this? How can they say? How?!

 

[Crayon]

:lol He really slaps the shit out of her! :lol