So about 1/3 chance that they get something right?
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GI.Biz: PS4, Xbox One will both reach 100 million units, says DFC
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
So about 1/3 chance that they get something right?
You can't lump the 80M Xbox 360 owners all together. The ones that bought it at $199 are not the same as the people that bought it at $399. When it launched they had a whole year of targeting the core gamer to themselves, had built up a library of games with 2nd gen games starting to appear when the PS3 launched and PS3 was $200 more expensive.
This time round they are competing head to head with Sony for the core gamer, using a comparable game library and a $100 price disadvantage. The Xbox brand might be strong among the more casual mass market but that is no use at $499. It will come into play in a couple of years when prices come down. In the meantime it might turn out that the reality among the core gamer is that the Playstation brand stomps over the Xbox brand.
This time round they are competing head to head with Sony for the core gamer, using a comparable game library and a $100 price disadvantage. The Xbox brand might be strong among the more casual mass market but that is no use at $499. It will come into play in a couple of years when prices come down. In the meantime it might turn out that the reality among the core gamer is that the Playstation brand stomps over the Xbox brand.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
There's nothing to suggest that the 360/PS3 market is shrinking. The following markets/demographics are shrinking or have already poofed:
The casual audience brought in with Wii
Nintendo's home console platform
Nintendo's handheld platform, the dedicated handheld market in general
People like to extrapolate Nintendo's failure onto Sony and MS but there's no evidence of that happening. It's basically wishful thinking.
The casual audience brought in with Wii
Nintendo's home console platform
Nintendo's handheld platform, the dedicated handheld market in general
People like to extrapolate Nintendo's failure onto Sony and MS but there's no evidence of that happening. It's basically wishful thinking.
Do these same people not realize what kind of gamers made up the majority of the Wii's user base?
Would you say these folk are interested in paying $400 to play kill zone and infamous?
bgassassin
Member
Sure there is. In a discussion I didn't get to finish before I believe it was mentioned that 118M PS2s were sold before PS3's release. When you add Xbox sales before the release of 360 (I'm going to just estimate 15M though I suspect it's higher), then the total is 133M.
In the first six years of PS360, their combined sales are 119.2M. They have "benefited" in their current sales thanks to an abnormally extended generation. The main thing that needs to be remembered is that the 360's best two fiscal years hardware-wise occurred after Kinect's release. A good portion of those people are going to be non-gamers that are the type that bought Wii for games like Wii Sports. Who would also hear "Halo" and think that's the ring above and angel's head or a Beyonce song before knowing it's an Xbox franchise. These are also the same people that are more than likely not going to be buying a console this generation. I think too often people look at the 80M 360s sold and instantly assume a high majority of that number is made up of "core gamers". To me the sales boost after Kinect suggest otherwise.
zenosparadox
Member
Considering the fact that they could have chosen 10m, 25m or even 250m, the number of potential wrong answers is far more than a 1-in-3 chance of success. What you probably meant to say was that they have a 33% prediction success rate.
Think, McFly. Think!
You can't just exclude Wii much as it can't be relied on to show how big the potential market is
I do. I think what Microsoft "did" (proposed... etc, etc...) did not score a bad reputation in the "mass market", it only affected a part of the hardcore gamers which closely follow the industry and its events.
And, looking at how well the console is selling, I think that you may laugh as much as you want.
I think you need to wait until the euphoria of a Christmas launch is over and reality of 'general sales' come through. A big chunk of the X360 sales were during the kinect launch where (I assume) some Wii owners upgraded.
The thing is, XBO won't offer anything they are interested in @ $500
I can't see XBO being anything other than boom and bust - MS have lost their only 2 markets they were winning and the gaps elsewhere will just get bigger.
bgassassin
Member
If I understand you correctly, that doesn't make sense. You either completely exclude it or completely factor it in. I prefer to completely exclude it because of the market it targeted.
I understand what you're saying, and I tend to agree - but those consoles were sold to gamers as well as the targeted market you speak of. What's to say some of those 'upgrade' - I suspect many did to X360 and might do so again to PS4/XBO.
This is really absurd prediction and absolutely definitely won't happen.
PS3 and X360 are selling their last pieces and after 8 years neither are near 100 million yet. Gen 8 will be 2-3 years shorter. There's just too many things competing of people's spare time nowadays preventing home consoles to reach that kind of sales ever again.
Gen 8 will be the first gen since ever when total sales will be down compared to previous gen. Cold hard facts: Xbone won't reach X360's total sales numbers, PS4 won't reach it's predecessor's sales numbers. Wii U doesn't either, nor does Vita or 3DS. Out of 5 main platforms on the market, at least 4 but most probably every single one of them will sell less than their ancestors.
And this prediction doesn't even consider what kind of disruption the upcoming new devices will cause to the market; Amazon console, Steambox etc. Also, hardcore gamers know that PC is the platform to go this gen for the best performance and experience.
PS3 and X360 are selling their last pieces and after 8 years neither are near 100 million yet. Gen 8 will be 2-3 years shorter. There's just too many things competing of people's spare time nowadays preventing home consoles to reach that kind of sales ever again.
Gen 8 will be the first gen since ever when total sales will be down compared to previous gen. Cold hard facts: Xbone won't reach X360's total sales numbers, PS4 won't reach it's predecessor's sales numbers. Wii U doesn't either, nor does Vita or 3DS. Out of 5 main platforms on the market, at least 4 but most probably every single one of them will sell less than their ancestors.
And this prediction doesn't even consider what kind of disruption the upcoming new devices will cause to the market; Amazon console, Steambox etc. Also, hardcore gamers know that PC is the platform to go this gen for the best performance and experience.
The advantages for PS4 over PS3:
Much more positive image and Sony on a roll (PS3 was outselling X360 YoY)
Cheapest by a substantial amount so offers much better VFM
Most powerful console without doubt
Fastest selling console and still in short supply
I think it has every chance
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
This is absurd. It doesn't take a sage to see that the Xbox brand is damaged compared to where they were prior to the PR debacle. You are wildly miscalculating the market. People are no where near as misinformed as they used to be. Xbox 'issues' have gone mainstream, you do not need to be a forum jockey to see that.
You aren't buying a console, so we aren't going to see 100m selling consoles...yah. Maybe you have just moved on to other hobbies?
Did you not read the rest of the post or visit the sales information of last generation. Sony is not going to sit idly by and watch MS take one of their chief selling factors.
What? The 499/599 price of PS3 took a massive cut out of any position. PS2 launched to ridiculous hype and acclaim.
PS4 is the only console that has a slight chance of outselling its predecessor, and even that chance is very small in my opinion.
Neither of those things you mentioned are things that matter when you are trying to sell to the large casual userbase outside of core gamers. They don't read Neogaf for their daily dose of fanboy stuff. $399 isn't a mass market price either, so that will take at least 2 years. More or less power means absolutely nothing in the big picture, see; any best-selling console, or even handheld, past 20 years.
Fastest selling console tells that after 8 years of frustration and waiting there's a big amount of hungry core gamers willing to upgrade their consoles. Let's see what happens when the launch period is over and sales find their "normal" levels.
PS4 to outsell PS3 before gen 8 ends (and new consoles launch and old console sales drop like a rock) means it should sell a million per every month combined worldwide and about 4-5 million per holidays averaging 16 million per year in the time span of 5-6 years. Those would be Wii or PS2 like sales numbers and that's simply not gonna happen because the competition for casual's spare time is much more fierce with mobile games, tablets, browser games and also more stiff competition from MS (MS and Sony are going after the same crowd).
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Keep dreaming. You are not going to see an Xbox Next or PS5 by 2018. The absolute earliest will be Christmas 2020, even then I do not see it being likely.
This gen sales will be down overall because of the Wii. Some of those gamers will move over to One/PS4 but the majority will not. PS4 will easily hit 80m consoles.
Steambox will have nearly no effect on the console market at all. It is not like you haven't been able to buy a 'steambox' all along.
I do like how you tossed in the HC master race. I am curious though, what changed? HC gamers didn't know that PC was the platform to go to for the best performance and experience last gen?
$399 isn't a mass market price, but somehow you think Steambox is going to cause any noticeable dent in console sales.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
Watch out everyone, user F#A#Oo isn't buying next gen console. This is an omen of things to come.
So because of the Wii Vita will sell less than PSP, 3DS will sell less than DS, Xbone will sell less than X360 and PS4 probably less than PS3? And of course, Wii U will sell less than Wii. Damn that Wii, damn that Wii to hell!
But if you think about it, there's a trend or a pattern to be seen here.
Core gamers aren't just behind one console like they were during PS2 era. There's much more competition especially from Xbone, but also PC and Steambox are after those dollars. There's more variety and spread between different devices.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
What are on about? I'm talking about consoles, not handhelds. Why would Wii sales have anything whatsoever to do with the performance of the Vita, 3DS, or tablets for that matter.
Wii sold over 100m, 360 80m, PS3 80m. That is a combined 260m, this generation will not reach 260m. It isn't that hard to follow. No clue why you are blabbering on about all this other crap.
Yes, but you just said that $399 is the mass market price. You see Steam machines selling at less than $399?
Err, go check on any media create, selling <20k weekly means it's dead/niche/won't make you hit 100 million...
How did this response refute what I said? Without Japan you will never hit 100 million...pretty sure XBone won't do a thing there...and I'm waiting to see what PS4 does in its launch month...
All the consoles, handhelds included, are in a downward trend because of the mobile gaming, browser games etc. competing for the same market; people's spare time. That's why it's absurd to predict that 2 out of 3 home consoles will reach 100 million sales. This has never happened before, and will not happen this time either.
No, I did not say anywhere that $399 is a mass market price. I was talking about core gamers there. Try to keep up.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
I have and the week of Jan 12th going forward is the first time in a long time that Japan has had less than 100k console sales, much less 20k. I guess since it has had five-six weeks of shit sales that means it is over for Japan.
Good thing I didn't say that 2 out of the 3 home consoles will reach 100 million sales, PS4 will though.
Good thing I was originally saying how neither won't reach 100 million sales, which is the topic of this thread.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
I like how people think that just because Japan isn't an unstoppable consumer force like it was in the PS2 days, that it doesn't "count" anymore. The PS3, which flubbed horribly in Japan at first, and split the market with high Wii sales and 360 moneyhats, still is going to sell over 10 million consoles, when all is said and done. PS4, which seems like it's going to be pretty unopposed in the region, will clear that easily. I say PS4 will sell 10-15 million in Japan.
I don't understand why people act like that's a tiny figure.
Edit: Obviously not targeting you, but the people you're talking to.
Jean Valjean
Member
Cheaper than R$ 4000 (US$ 1850) ? Sure.
SwiftDeath
Member
Well I expected that but I meant more that some sellers already have the PS4 priced at half it's MSRP and inline with the XB1's MSRP
dr_rus
Member
Quantum Break is basically the only game which is looking interesting among the Xbox One exclusives right now. Another one might've been from Black Tusk but MS killed that one off pretty quickly with a GeoW sequel - which I have exactly zero interest in after GeoW3.
On PS4 side we have less games announced, sure, but it's clear as day that they'll have more of them eventually.