I was agreeing with you up until the April part. I have no doubt Microsoft is going to trumpet the March NPD and Titanfall sales, since it's a probable victory. However, the rest of your post doesn't feel right at all. For one, what big name exclusive do they have coming out in April other than Kinect Sports Rivals? I think they're relying on Titanfall & Watch Dogs to get them through the slow spring months up until E3. For E3, they have a lot of exclusives to talk about (SO, QB, H2A, etc.), but the real thing people will be expecting them to do is to drop the price and/or Kinect. If they don't do one of those things, I have a feeling it will cast a damper on the entire presentation, since one of the barriers to people buying XBOs is the whole "higher price, worse hardware" stigma.
While Microsoft definitely has some big things up their sleeves, It's time to come to grips and accept that NA and UK aren't on lock-down anymore. Even though the Xbox One may catch up to the PS4 in terms of feature-set, goodwill takes a long time to earn back. I think Sony knows that better than anyone.