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March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th

L

Liabe Brave

Member
Lorcain said:
Holy shit. That's crazy. This was the number I was waiting to see.
Click to expand...
It's the best non-holiday launch ever, but it's not totally crazy. Gameboy Advance was only ~25k lower outside the holidays, and both Xbox One and PS4 were higher in their November launches.
 
K

Kolx

Member
PS4 sold almost 10 million in Q3 alone and a large part of that was in the US. With lower price and all 3rd party bar EA sport games and AC locked by Sony I find it unreasonable for people to give it to switch from now even if it doesn't have a supply constrain.
 
T

th3sicknness

Member
Kolx said:
PS4 sold almost 10 million in Q3 alone and a large part of that was in the US. With lower price and all 3rd party bar EA sport games and AC locked by Sony I find it unreasonable for people to give it to switch from now even if it doesn't have a supply constrain.
Click to expand...

The more I think about it the more I think Nintendo is not going to meet demand. There is no way they would be able to ship 5 to 6 million switches in a 2 month span imo...
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
th3sicknness said:
I guess it really comes down to production and hype really. Can Nintendo produce enough Switches and will the HYPE still carry to Q4?

Nintendo historically hasnt been able to keep supply up to meet demand so maybe they wont match those sales the ps4 is putting up.
Click to expand...

Initially its about that but IMO its also about keeping momentum. There will be a point in time where the hype will die down.

The PS4 came out in Nov 2013. Hype cant be carrying it this far. Nintendo need to find ways to maintain momentum. Games, sales, bundles, etc.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
According to Zhuge, this is the top 3.

Ghost Recon: Wildlands (Digital included)
Zelda
Mass Effect (Digital included)

Horizon came in at 4 (no digital sales counted). Nier came it at 9.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, to prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 4 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - March 2017

Units

Units

1. Zedark
2. Gaspard
3. BeforeU
4. Opt1kon_


Points
Code: 
     March 2017                      Overall 2017 Top (2/3)
01.  Zedark                 ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
02.  BeforeU                ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
03.  Gaspard                ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
04.  Opt1kon_               ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
05.                         ---.--   Raylan                 ---.--
06.                         ---.--   RexNovis               ---.--
07.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Conduit                ---.--
09.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
10.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
11.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
12.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
13.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
14.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
15.                         ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
16.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
18.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
19.                         ---.--   Ravage_Hydra           ---.--
20.                         ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
22.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
23.                         ---.--   robo                   ---.--
24.                         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
25.                         ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
26.                         ---.--   Bruno MB               ---.--
27.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
29.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
30.                         ---.--   blakep267              ---.--
31.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
32.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
33.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
34.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
35.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
36.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
37.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
38.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
39.                         ---.--   noshten                ---.--
40.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
42.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
43.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
45.                         ---.--   Ol┐nner                ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
47.                         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
48.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Thorrgal               ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--

Congratulations, Zedark! :D
 
D

donny2112

Member
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - March 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.

1. Zedark - 0
2. gtj1092 - 58,000
3. BeforeU - 100,000
4. Gaspard - 110,000
5. kyo2004 - 120,000
6. noshten - 125,000
7. jayu26 - 133,000
8. labaronx - 134,000
9. Graphics Horse - 145,000
10. KillerMan91 - 150,000
11. Possumowner - 165,000
12. Chobel - 170,000
13. Maxinas - 175,000
14. Pachter - 180,000
15. Kazuo Hirai - 190,000
16. gundamkyoukai - 191,000
17. donny2112 - 195,000
18. Hammer24 - 199,000
19. Opt1kon_ - 202,000
20. Bitch Pudding - 210,000
20. Cow Goes Moo - 210,000
22. jjonez18 - 215,000
23. robo - 220,000
23. vivekTO - 220,000
25. pitseleh - 225,000
26. Raylan - 240,000
26. slavesnyder - 240,000
28. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 242,000
29. GAF_Agg - 242,200
30. Welfare - 246,000
31. Stanng243 - 250,000
32. archnemesis - 255,000
33. Fdkn - 257,000
34. Sterok - 260,000
35. Shock32 - 264,000
35. skedar897 - 264,000
37. Ninjuit - 265,000
38. Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule - 270,000
38. Darth Smurf X - 270,000
40. Kayant - 276,000
41. theprodigy - 280,000
42. sirronoh - 283,000
43. 1993dan1 - 284,000
44. CorporateClown - 285,000
45. Duxxy3 - 290,000
45. Elandyll - 290,000
45. Ol┐nner - 290,000
45. Rymuth - 290,000
45. Sangetsu-II - 290,000
50. Kill3r7 - 295,000
51. Manuel. - 300,000
51. allan-bh - 300,000
53. mejin - 305,000
54. Ravage_Hydra - 310,000
54. Shizza - 310,000
54. jbluzb - 310,000
57. astrogamer - 321,000
58. BlackBuzzard - 328,000
59. Bruno MB - 345,000
59. Primethius - 345,000
59. jroc74 - 345,000
62. 30yearsofhurt - 360,000
62. Conduit - 360,000
64. noobie - 365,000
65. fbutron - 375,000
66. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 380,000
67. Apt101 - 395,000
68. Prototype Viktor - 407,000
69. freefornow - 413,000
70. ethomaz - 430,000
71. BoxManLocke - 450,000
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
My Switch prediction killed me for real :(

2nd overall now.

Congrats Zedark.

Edit - To Zedark be first his PS4/XB1 numbers needs to be better than Gaspard number by at least 40k... so PS4 is probably close to 360k and XB1 to 200k.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
I dropped to #4 on the yearly but got bodied in the monthly. I'm blaming the Switch for being too damn successful!

Congrats Zedark.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
Edit: nvm, we can't for certain yet.

Primethius said:
Go ahead.

My preliminary look at the numbers tells me that you won due to your PS4 prediction given that we know how much Switch sold in March.
Click to expand...
I made a slight logic error, which makes discerning the numbers no longer approximately possible. My reasoning went that numbers 3 and 4 are very close together (it can be shown from labaronx' numbers that it is less than 15k), and that their Switch predictions are wrong by roughly (within 12k) the same amount, so from there we might be able to work something out. My error was that I wanted to take the average between the XB1 and PS4 entries to get the NPD approximate results, but that doesn't work in practice. Also, PS4 is at the very least 330k, and XB1 is 200k+, otherwise I would have lost to Gaspard.

Seeing as Gaspard is at least 10k ahead of number 3 and 4, and 15k ahead of labaronx, 3 and 4 must be almost the same, and furthermore PS4 > 335k and XB1 > 225k (in order to maintain number 3's position in the ranking above labaronx). This means that XB1 skews towards 3 by at least 39k and at most 44k. Taking the lower difference, PS4 must be around 39k closer to 4, so PS4 ~ 388k would apply. For The 44k case, PS4 ~ 390k. This is of course not taking into account the 12k Switch differences between 3 and 4, which changes things a bit.

Labaronx' numbers:
labaronx said:
Awesome explaination and it explains a lot

[NSW] 900k
[PS4] 311k
[XB1] 165k
Click to expand...
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Zedark said:
I think we figure out the approximate sales numbers from these results. Is that frowned upon or can I do my approximate discerning?
Click to expand...

Go ahead.

My preliminary look at the numbers tells me that you won due to your PS4 prediction given that we know how much Switch sold in March.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
If those are correct that'd put PS4 at 2M ahead of the Xbox. Pretty crazy if you ask me. Not a huge lead but nothing to sneeze at and coming off being distant third in US last gen.
 
P

Principate

Saint Titanfall
NeoMetallix said:
If those are correct that'd put PS4 at 2M ahead of the Xbox. Pretty crazy if you ask me. Not a huge lead but nothing to sneeze at and coming off being distant third in US last gen.
Click to expand...

Says a lot about Xbox this gen when it's losing it's strongest market by 2 million.
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
ethomaz said:
My Switch prediction killed me for real :(

2nd overall now.

Congrats Zedark.

Edit - To Zedark be first his PS4/XB1 numbers needs to be better than Gaspard number by at least 40k... so PS4 is probably close to 360k and XB1 to 200k.
Click to expand...

Yea I predict the Switch guesses to kill me like 3DS did.

At these PS4, XBO guesses...if this winds up being close to the actual numbers, damn....
 
Z

Zedark

Member
Zedark said:
Edit: nvm, we can't for certain yet.


I made a slight logic error, which makes discerning the numbers no longer approximately possible. My reasoning went that numbers 3 and 4 are very close together (it can be shown from labaronx' numbers that it is less than 15k), and that their Switch predictions are wrong by roughly (within 12k) the same amount, so from there we might be able to work something out. My error was that I wanted to take the average between the XB1 and PS4 entries to get the NPD approximate results, but that doesn't work in practice. Also, PS4 is at the very least 330k, and XB1 is 200k+, otherwise I would have lost to Gaspard.

Seeing as Gaspard is at least 10k ahead of number 3 and 4, and 15k ahead of labaronx, 3 and 4 must be almost the same, and furthermore PS4 > 335k and XB1 > 225k. This means that XB1 skews towards 3 by at least 39k and at most 44k. Taking the lower difference, PS4 must be around 39k closer to 4, so PS4 ~ 388k would apply. For The 44k case, PS4 ~ 390k. This is of course not taking into account the 12k Switch differences between 3 and 4, which changes things a bit.

Labaronx' numbers:
Click to expand...
I checked these numbers against the other predictions, and PS4 ~ 390k and XB1 > 225k follows logically and doesn't contradict the ranking (i.e., no one overtakes me with these results, for any arbitrary XB1 numbers above 225k). This is the best I can do atm.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Zedark said:
I checked these numbers against the other predictions, and PS4 ~ 390k and XB1 > 225k follows logically and doesn't contradict the ranking (i.e., no one overtakes me with these results, for any arbitrary XB1 numbers above 225k). This is the best I can do atm.
Click to expand...
I probably forget to post here because my prediction was sent directly to donny while I was banned.

I don't think it will help you but well let's share it.

[NSW] 600k
[PS4] 300k
[XB1] 180k

Edit - I'm even ashamed of my prediction this month :(
 
Z

Zedark

Member
ethomaz said:
I probably forget to post here because my prediction was sent directly to donny while I was banned.

I don't think it will help you but well let's share it.

[NSW] 600k
[PS4] 300k
[XB1] 180k

Edit - I'm even ashamed of my prediction this month :(
Click to expand...

The thing is that no one in the top 4 we can compare with predicted much higher than 225k, so it's impossible to determine the upper bound for the XB1.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Using these estimates for 2017...

PS4 > 995k (Up > 22% YoY) *
SW ~906k
XB1 ~625k (Up ~20% YoY) **

* PS4 can be only > because Feb and Mar are estimates with >.
** XB1 is around because estimate in Feb was < and Mar >.
 
G

GifGafIsTheBestGaf

Member
yeah, i really lowballed/misread nintendo. i thought they would allocate more stock in japan since that has been their primary focus hence my numbers not because i thought it wouldnt sell at all.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
donny2112 said:
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - March 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.

1. Zedark - 0
2. gtj1092 - 58,000
3. BeforeU - 100,000
4. Gaspard - 110,000
Click to expand...


I'm confused am I second for the month or not?
 
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