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sonycowboy · Oct 24, 2006

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6160413.html

Lazard Capital Markets tells investors that Xbox 360 console sales are lagging--but the system's games are still moving, along with DS and PS2 titles.
By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpot
Posted Oct 24, 2006 12:17 pm PT

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian is finally buying into a bullish 2006 for the gaming industry.

In a note to investors today, the industry analyst adjusted his expectations for the industry's annual software take from shrinking by as much as 5 percent to growing by 6 percent. Sebastian said the change in his expectations was based on stronger-than-expected sales results reported by the NPD Group so far this year, reflecting solid sales on the DS and PlayStation 2 fronts, as well as a strong tie ratio of roughly five games sold for each Xbox 360 sold since it launched last November.

While 360 software has been exceeding Sebastian's expectations, the hardware is slipping off the pace, the analyst said. While he cites "market expectations" as having 5 million Xbox 360s sold for the year, Sebastian said that the system's sales to date suggest Microsoft is more likely to wind up with 4.5 million units sold for the year. To extrapolate 360 sales, Sebastian looked at the average holiday ramp-up of the Xbox, PS2, and GameCube in the holiday seasons a year after their launches.

Sebastian lowered his expectations for the overall number of hardware units sold this year as well. He said the DS is outperforming his expectations, but that the expected underperformance of the Xbox 360 and a slowdown in PlayStation Portable and Game Boy Advance sales will more than offset it.

Sebastian stuck to his PlayStation 3 sales estimate of 750,000 units by year's end, and upped his Wii expecations by about 500,000 to 1.2 million systems.

Liquid · Oct 24, 2006

$399. cheap hardware vs expensive hardware /end thread.

i cant waitto see how many times analysts have to adjust ps3s forcasts.

sonycowboy · Oct 24, 2006

Liquid said:
$399. cheap hardware vs expensive hardware /end thread.

i cant waitto see how many times analysts have to adjust ps3s forcasts.

It's amazing how all those financial analysts can't seem to comprehend the whole price elasticity concept as well as our GAF folks. These sales aren't bad, they're because the system is soooo much more expensive.

DarienA · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
It's amazing how all those financial analysts can't seem to comprehend the whole price elasticity concept as well as our GAF folks. These sales aren't bad, they're because the system is soooo much more expensive.

...I see what you did there.

RaijinFY · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
It's amazing how all those financial analysts can't seem to comprehend the whole price elasticity concept as well as our GAF folks. These sales aren't bad, they're because the system is soooo much more expensive.

rofl...

Pseudo judo · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6160413.html

Lazard Capital Markets tells investors that Xbox 360 console sales are lagging--but the system's games are still moving, along with DS and PS2 titles.
By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpot
Posted Oct 24, 2006 12:17 pm PT

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian is finally buying into a bullish 2006 for the gaming industry.

In a note to investors today, the industry analyst adjusted his expectations for the industry's annual software take from shrinking by as much as 5 percent to growing by 6 percent. Sebastian said the change in his expectations was based on stronger-than-expected sales results reported by the NPD Group so far this year, reflecting solid sales on the DS and PlayStation 2 fronts, as well as a strong tie ratio of roughly five games sold for each Xbox 360 sold since it launched last November.

While 360 software has been exceeding Sebastian's expectations, the hardware is slipping off the pace, the analyst said. While he cites "market expectations" as having 5 million Xbox 360s sold for the year, Sebastian said that the system's sales to date suggest Microsoft is more likely to wind up with 4.5 million units sold for the year. To extrapolate 360 sales, Sebastian looked at the average holiday ramp-up of the Xbox, PS2, and GameCube in the holiday seasons a year after their launches.

Sebastian lowered his expectations for the overall number of hardware units sold this year as well. He said the DS is outperforming his expectations, but that the expected underperformance of the Xbox 360 and a slowdown in PlayStation Portable and Game Boy Advance sales will more than offset it.

Sebastian stuck to his PlayStation 3 sales estimate of 750,000 units by year's end, and upped his Wii expecations by about 500,000 to 1.2 million systems.

Considering the number of times this guy altered his "expectations" of every hardware format, except PS3, it's a wonder he has a job. I wouldn't place my money anywhere based on his expectations.

donny2112 · Oct 24, 2006

Liquid said:
$399. cheap hardware vs expensive hardware /end thread.

GameCube says HI.

Liquid said:
i cant waitto see how many times analysts have to adjust ps3s forcasts.

While I'm not certain, I am expecting PS3 sales in at least the first two years to be substantially below PS2 sales in the same timeframe. From that perspective measuring 360 sales to PS2 sales is not relevant for trying to see who will "win" (i.e. sell more consoles) this coming generation as no one is likely to sell like the PS2 this time around. That doesn't mean that the 360 is selling poorly/great in the U.S., but rather that we can't qualitatively know how it is selling now until we see how the other two will be selling. Putting Microsoft sell-through predictions aside, that is.

In the meantime, comparisons to PS2 will continue, and disappointment will reign.

Liquid · Oct 24, 2006

honestly at this point i really dont care who wins the next gen war as i see no clear winner anymore. IMO 360 and ps3 will end in a tie and wii will either smash them both or finish behind them. wii is the only wildcard. As of this year both the ps3 and 360 are too expensive for mass market. I dont care what any analyst say. Sales of the 360 are enough proof for me. More proof is the DS vs the PSP both hardware and software wise. the psp is also too expensive for a truly mass market handheld device. The real fun will come when MS can drop the price and ps3s 1st party killer apps begin to hit as far as the new "war" goes.

Liquid · Oct 24, 2006

gamecube simply didnt have 3rd party support. come on. both ps3 and 360 are pretty much dead even 3rd party wise and both have their own killer 1st party games and exclusives. I still count HD video out and all thats left after that is PRICE which is still too high for mainstream. christmas 2007.

Odysseus · Oct 24, 2006

Everyone deserves to lose marketshare, impossible as that may be.

donny2112 · Oct 24, 2006

Liquid said:
gamecube simply didnt have 3rd party support.

I'm simply saying that you can't boil it all down to price and call it a day. Price is certainly a substantial issue, though.

Odysseus said:
Everyone deserves to lose marketshare, impossible as that may be.

*tries to imagine circumstances where they all lose market share*

SPLORGENBORG!

castle007 · Oct 24, 2006

Liquid said:
gamecube simply didnt have 3rd party support. come on. both ps3 and 360 are pretty much dead even 3rd party wise and both have their own killer 1st party games and exclusives. I still count HD video out and all thats left after that is PRICE which is still too high for mainstream. christmas 2007.

your post makes no sense, except for the first sentence

Liquid · Oct 24, 2006

how does it not make sense? both machines are awesome, both will have there equal share of games outside of the ones that will appear on both, i still dont see people jumping on the HD movie bandwagon quickly so IMO its a non factor and the only difference left between the 2 is the price.

sonycowboy · Oct 24, 2006

Odysseus said:
Everyone deserves to lose marketshare, impossible as that may be.

If you're looking at marketshare, I think 95% of folks are in agreement that purely based on marketshare gains or losses, there is only 1 outcome.

Sony loses marketshare (was essentially 70%+ market share)
Microsoft gains marketshare (essentially ~15% market share)
Nintendo gains marketshare (essentially ~15% market share)

However, that given that Sony absolutely crushed everyone last generation by a previously unheard of margin, it's essentially a no brainer.

I tend to agree with most analysts current thinking that there will likely be no absolute "loser" this generation. Sony will greatly diminish their overall unit sales as well as the market share, but the number of consoles sold could still be considered a "success" by any measure not tied to the PS2/PSOne.

Odysseus · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
I tend to agree with most analysts current thinking that there will likely be no absolute "loser" this generation.

How about gamers?

Liquid · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
I tend to agree with most analysts current thinking that there will likely be no absolute "loser" this generation.

wow something i actually agree with you on. :lol

Sathsquatch · Oct 24, 2006

I suspected that the 360 would end up doing about 4.5 million this year.

jamesinclair · Oct 24, 2006

"Sebastian stuck to his PlayStation 3 sales estimate of 750,000 units by year's end, and upped his Wii expecations by about 500,000 to 1.2 million systems."

So this idiot had the Wii selling less than the PS3 in his original prediction?

Wow.

rastex · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
I tend to agree with most analysts current thinking that there will likely be no absolute "loser" this generation. Sony will greatly diminish their overall unit sales as well as the market share, but the number of consoles sold could still be considered a "success" by any measure not tied to the PS2/PSOne.

Pretty much. The race will be so close in NA that it won't even matter. The race is so over in Japan that it doesn't even matter. What I'm interested to see is what's going to happen in Europe over the next few years.

AlanHemberger · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
It's amazing how all those financial analysts can't seem to comprehend the whole price elasticity concept as well as our GAF folks. These sales aren't bad, they're because the system is soooo much more expensive.

What's funny, is you'll probably say this without sarcasm when the PS3 goes on sale.

zou · Oct 24, 2006

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian is finally buying into a bullish 2006 for the gaming industry.

In a note to investors today, the industry analyst adjusted his expectations for the industry's annual software take from shrinking by as much as 5 percent to growing by 6 percent. Sebastian said the change in his expectations was based on stronger-than-expected sales results reported by the NPD Group so far this year, reflecting solid sales on the DS and PlayStation 2 fronts, as well as a strong tie ratio of roughly five games sold for each Xbox 360 sold since it launched last November.

While 360 software has been exceeding Sebastian's expectations, the hardware is slipping off the pace, the analyst said. While he cites "market expectations" as having 5 million Xbox 360s sold for the year, Sebastian said that the system's sales to date suggest Microsoft is more likely to wind up with 4.5 million units sold for the year. To extrapolate 360 sales, Sebastian looked at the average holiday ramp-up of the Xbox, PS2, and GameCube in the holiday seasons a year after their launches.

Sebastian lowered his expectations for the overall number of hardware units sold this year as well. He said the DS is outperforming his expectations, but that the expected underperformance of the Xbox 360 and a slowdown in PlayStation Portable and Game Boy Advance sales will more than offset it.

Sebastian stuck to his PlayStation 3 sales estimate of 750,000 units by year's end, and upped his Wii expecations by about 500,000 to 1.2 million systems.

What's that guys name again?

7Th · Oct 24, 2006

sonycowboy said:
Sebastian stuck to his PlayStation 3 sales estimate of 750,000 units by year's end...

Fiscal year... right?

The Abominable Snowman · Oct 24, 2006

jamesinclair said:
"Sebastian stuck to his PlayStation 3 sales estimate of 750,000 units by year's end, and upped his Wii expecations by about 500,000 to 1.2 million systems."

So this idiot had the Wii selling less than the PS3 in his original prediction?

Wow.

So to think that the PS3 might outsell the Wii is idiocy now? Wow.

jamesinclair · Oct 24, 2006

The Abominable Snowman said:
So to think that the PS3 might outsell the Wii is idiocy now? Wow.

Year end is they key in the sentence.

He had Wii selling 700k to the years end and PS3 selling 750,000 to the years end.

That Wii number would make the GC launch seem like the best launch ever.

PS3 we know will be hurt by supply. Not wii.

Lapsed · Oct 24, 2006

There is little to differentiate the Xbox 360 from the PS3. PS3 may easily consume Xbox 360 sales.

This might be the reason why Nintendo took the whole 'new generation' approach to the Wii. The Wii is so different from the other consoles that PS3 and Xbox 360 sales won't consume Wii's sales (except in the general entertainment way. Everybody's entertainment dollars are limited).

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