Fourth Storm said:

This together with Takeda's comments about not being able to "just think about Japan" might be seen as positive indicators that they may be looking to shake things up a bit.

Yet, Iwata himself has recently reiterated that they do not intend to compete w/ MS and Sony in a race to the bottom. If they launch a comparably specced system, there's just no way they will be able to compete on price of hardware of depth of library.

Nintendo have no choice but to put together a small ~$199 box. It may be insane, but with the bold talk coming out of Kyoto about "not just throwing money out the toilet" I think they might jump into the digital storefront 100%, making them even less a competitor to MS and Sony in the eyes of consumers.

Looking at AMD's die sizes at 28nm, and figuring in a shrink down to 14nm/16nm, I can't see them fitting in more than 320 shaders or a .5 TFLOP class machine. That is if they want to keep die size and power draw around Wii U-level. Low power it is!

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Linkhero1 said:

This is blocked at work. Do you mind posting an excerpt?

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There was a time when Nintendo of America was the biggest, baddest shark of them all, and software developers and retailers were genuinely afraid of the House of Mario.

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From bringing on both Rareware and Retro Studios as second parties to defending Nintendo during the videogame violence Senate hearings in the early 90s, Lincoln wasn't afraid to take risks. He also wasn't afraid to speak his mind -- some of his words regarding the competition were so brutal that you can still feel the scorch marks years later. Could his actions be part of the reason many third parties became wary of working with Nintendo later on? Possibly, but you can't deny that the man got results.

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During the videogame violence Senate hearings -- sparked in part by the 1992's Mortal Kombat and resulting in the formation of the Entertainment Software Rating Board -- Lincoln took the opportunity to deflect focus away from Nintendo and onto SEGA and retailers that stocked SEGA product. In the above video clip, he held up the infamous SEGA CD title Night Trap as an example of an adult game directly sold to youths. SEGA was furious that Lincoln would be so petty and self-serving during a period when the entire industry needed to band together.

Lincoln was not bothered, and he even wrote a poem directed towards then-SEGA president Tom Kalinske: "Dear Tom, Roses are red, violets are blue, so you had a bad day, boo hoo hoo hoo. All my best, Howard."

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Interceptor said:

They wil go the low to mid power route again but with an important change - i am almost certain they will ditch the optical drive this time. This will have a huge impact in cost and the overall design of the machine. Retail is still important to them so they won´t abandon it. Might be a mix out of dowloadstations straight from the NES era (they love old ideas) for the handheld, cartridges or just keycards sold in stores with a manual (which they already do). Abandoning the optical drive will give them room to expand on the power side - not expecting something spectacular of course but beating PS4 tech shoudln´t be too hard in 2016. Heck it wasn´t even hard in 2012.

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Linkhero1 said:

This is blocked at work. Do you mind posting an excerpt?

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Zero²;170457077 said:

Well I personally dont mind a digital only future, I buy everything digital since retail doesn't exist here anyway, and the import copies are so expensive I dont see any reason to not go digital.

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Fourth Storm said:

I have seen numbers cited that show digital purchases are only certain (small) percentage of overall purchases, but what if that were the only choice consumers had? Would overall sales decline or would digital purchases pick up the slack?

A large number of the retail sales Nintendo got w/ handhelds/Wii were licensed games--even now, all Wii U gets are Lego games. With the downfall of the licensed games model (and companies like THQ, who subsisted off it), there is less and less of parents simply walking into the store to just buy a random (cheap) game for the kids.

I also notice many people suggesting the reliance on "carts." Nintendo need to at least appear that they are a modern company. Game Cards need to become a thing of the past, and I am sure parents would agree when the things end up strewn about and lost. They also eat into profit margins, especially of third parties. Nintendo 3DS is a fairly successful platform, and yet Nintendo themselves are needed to publish riskier games like Bravely Default. Phoenix Wright 5 is download only. This should tell you something about the Game Card business. Yes, it makes sense for some games to be physically sitting on a shelf, but there are alternatives now (NFC, download codes, stations, etc), and if Nintendo can successfully drive consumers to its online store (which they are intent on making accessible on mobile, PC, etc), why not cut out the additional risk/cost?

Again, this will not be an easy process. Iwata has stated as such, but it is one they must take in order to be relevant in the modern media/electronics market.

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Fourth Storm said:

It's not that Nintendo don't want to compete. They just don't want to compete in the AAA "mature" scene that MS/Sony have effectively claimed. There are a myriad of developers who would yet be interested in making games for a Nintendo box if it offered a feasible market and was easy to program for. Even publishers like Activision and EA make games for all audiences that don't require high specs.

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z0m3le said:

I'm a pc gamer, I'm sure most people who want 3rd party games that are multiplatform won't be buying those games on Nintendo's console, their best option is to create a successful handheld again and have a shared development pipeline with the console to get 3rd party support from a strong handheld being targeted rather than putting out any high spec box which gamers who buy it won't be buying 3rd party multiplats on anyways.

I guarantee that Sony and Microsoft would put out more powerful boxes anyways, even if Nintendo put 10tflops in a box, Sony and Microsoft would put out something that dwarfed it, as they are coming out years later and they have created a market that is brand agnostic anyways and simply want the more powerful machine. (that is what happens when you create twins)

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Fourth Storm said:

I have seen numbers cited that show digital purchases are only certain (small) percentage of overall purchases, but what if that were the only choice consumers had? Would overall sales decline or would digital purchases pick up the slack?

A large number of the retail sales Nintendo got w/ handhelds/Wii were licensed games--even now, all Wii U gets are Lego games. With the downfall of the licensed games model (and companies like THQ, who subsisted off it), there is less and less of parents simply walking into the store to just buy a random (cheap) game for the kids.

I also notice many people suggesting the reliance on "carts." Nintendo need to at least appear that they are a modern company. Game Cards need to become a thing of the past, and I am sure parents would agree when the things end up strewn about and lost. They also eat into profit margins, especially of third parties. Nintendo 3DS is a fairly successful platform, and yet Nintendo themselves are needed to publish riskier games like Bravely Default. Phoenix Wright 5 is download only. This should tell you something about the Game Card business. Yes, it makes sense for some games to be physically sitting on a shelf, but there are alternatives now (NFC, download codes, stations, etc), and if Nintendo can successfully drive consumers to its online store (which they are intent on making accessible on mobile, PC, etc), why not cut out the additional risk/cost?

Again, this will not be an easy process. Iwata has stated as such, but it is one they must take in order to be relevant in the modern media/electronics market.

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jeffers said:

How do you guys see the xbone/ps4 pricing come then? does seem to be far more aggressive price cutting this time around.

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Fourth Storm said:

I see it as being a competitor to FireTV but slightly larger and w/ higher performance (maybe 2x Wii U). With the prices on 16nm/14nm chips being higher than 28nm, I do not think Nintendo will be in any position to compete w/ Sony/MS machines. At most, they match them and at the same price. That's the unfortunate market reality w/ semiconductors. It's not like the Gamecube/PS2 era where there were vastly different architectures/efficiencies and Nintendo could benefit from a cheaper node.

So if by Holiday 2016, Xbone is down to $299, NX needs to launch at $199. That's just the start to success. In reality, they would be competing w/ 2 established libraries and very late in the game at that. Nintendo don't need to Dreamcast-leap the 2 current-gen twins. Dreamcast still failed, remember! But if Nintendo can work up this OS and keep hardware costs reasonable, they can time another minor hardware refresh for 2018/2019. A "new" NX. Rinse and repeat after another 2 years. They might never "catch up," or they might decide to release a more capable system eventually if the OS really takes off and 3rd parties start coming back around.

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Fourth Storm said:

I have seen numbers cited that show digital purchases are only certain (small) percentage of overall purchases, but what if that were the only choice consumers had? Would overall sales decline or would digital purchases pick up the slack?

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ozfunghi said:

And yet, what you're discribing is clearly not going to happen. Steering clear of the AAA scene, while offering underpowered hardware that yet somehow manages to create a feasable market for 3rd parties. Look at WiiU. What you're discribing might have worked on the Wii, but that market is gone.

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Maggots said:

$349 console

$199 Handheld

$500 bundled

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ShockingAlberto said:

$350 console is a death sentence.

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Tron#1 said:

I cant wait to see how wrong the collective masses here are when we find out what NX truly is. One thing we should know by now... Nintendo isn't predictable and usually when you think you know you have no idea.

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Neoxon said:

That would depend on how powerful the console in question is.

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ShockingAlberto said:

$350 console is a death sentence.

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Terrell said:

Yeah, he was a fucking prick. Literally dragged retailers and Sega through the mud in front of the government while painting Nintendo as saintly purveyors of all things innocent. Hence, responsible for the kiddie mentality at Nintendo, along with likely being the one to invoke and enforce censorship of games prior to the ESRB forming, when they went all out as soon as they had a rating to hide behind. That alone makes him the worst thing that ever happened to Nintendo of America.

And no one could do anything to curb his bullshit, because Arakawa and Yamauchi liked him. I'm purely speculating, but I begin to suspect that Lincoln retired because he knew Yamauchi was leaving and didn't have anyone with enough sway to hide behind when his house of cards started falling down.

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Ryoku said:

Yet Sony and Microsoft get away with much more expensive consoles.

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Lincoln was not bothered, and he even wrote a poem directed towards then-SEGA president Tom Kalinske: "Dear Tom, Roses are red, violets are blue, so you had a bad day, boo hoo hoo hoo. All my best, Howard.

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Rainbowgun said:

Holy shit. Nobody would dare to do stuff like that today.

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ShockingAlberto said:

I figured this would be clear, but

$350 Nintendo console is a death sentence.

People view consoles as investments at that price. The Wii U did not pay dividends to the vast, vast majority of the audience.

The Wii U would have done a lot better if they could trojan horse it into people's homes and then sell them games. But the system was too expensive to make, thus they couldn't drop the price, and the only place that wooden horse stayed was store shelves.

There is no reason at all, at all, to assume this will change in one generation.

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Terrell said:

Yeah, he was a fucking prick. Literally dragged retailers and Sega through the mud in front of the government while painting Nintendo as saintly purveyors of all things innocent. Hence, responsible for the kiddie mentality at Nintendo, along with likely being the one to invoke and enforce censorship of games prior to the ESRB forming, when they went all out as soon as they had a rating to hide behind. That alone makes him the worst thing that ever happened to Nintendo of America.

And no one could do anything to curb his bullshit, because Arakawa and Yamauchi liked him. I'm purely speculating, but I begin to suspect that Lincoln retired because he knew Yamauchi was leaving and didn't have anyone with enough sway to hide behind when his house of cards started falling down.

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Fourth Storm said:

I see it as being a competitor to FireTV but slightly larger and w/ higher performance (maybe 2x Wii U). With the prices on 16nm/14nm chips being higher than 28nm, I do not think Nintendo will be in any position to compete w/ Sony/MS machines. At most, they match them and at the same price. That's the unfortunate market reality w/ semiconductors. It's not like the Gamecube/PS2 era where there were vastly different architectures/efficiencies and Nintendo could benefit from a cheaper node.

So if by Holiday 2016, Xbone is down to $299, NX needs to launch at $199. That's just the start to success. In reality, they would be competing w/ 2 established libraries and very late in the game at that. Nintendo don't need to Dreamcast-leap the 2 current-gen twins. Dreamcast still failed, remember! But if Nintendo can work up this OS and keep hardware costs reasonable, they can time another minor hardware refresh for 2018/2019. A "new" NX. Rinse and repeat after another 2 years. They might never "catch up," or they might decide to release a more capable system eventually if the OS really takes off and 3rd parties start coming back around.

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atbigelow said:

Well, New 3DS can run Unity. It's got enough CPU oomph to do it now. How well remains to be seen.

Honestly I'd rather they use ARM for everything. You can definitely get some good performance-per-watt out of it. With a proper cooling solution, you could pump some juice into an ARM CPU. EDIT: Nevermind the bother that would be having to test your game across CPU architectures if they were to have an x86 (console) and ARM (handheld) split. I think the simpler the design the better.

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ShockingAlberto said:

I figured this would be clear, but

$350 Nintendo console is a death sentence.

People view consoles as investments at that price. The Wii U did not pay dividends to the vast, vast majority of the audience.

The Wii U would have done a lot better if they could trojan horse it into people's homes and then sell them games. But the system was too expensive to make, thus they couldn't drop the price, and the only place that wooden horse stayed was store shelves.

There is no reason at all, at all, to assume this will change in one generation.

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Terrell said:

Nope. And Lincoln's example is probably half the reason why Nintendo doesn't have someone at NoA aggressively pursue Western partnerships like that autonomously or give them much autonomy at all. The damage Lincoln has done has made such a steep uphill battle for Nintendo that it's likely left them skittish. Hence why Dan Adelman, the indie advocate at NoA, moved on shortly after running his mouth on Twitter. At the first sign of a Lincoln-esque personality, corporate worked to stifle him in the media and push him aside, because that's not how Iwata wants to conduct his business. It also explains the change in Reggie's tone: he learned how to play ball with corporate.

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ShockingAlberto said:

I figured this would be clear, but

$350 Nintendo console is a death sentence.

People view consoles as investments at that price. The Wii U did not pay dividends to the vast, vast majority of the audience.

The Wii U would have done a lot better if they could trojan horse it into people's homes and then sell them games. But the system was too expensive to make, thus they couldn't drop the price, and the only place that wooden horse stayed was store shelves.

There is no reason at all, at all, to assume this will change in one generation.

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thegirlleastlikelyto said:

And Apple released Safari and iTunes for Windows, and now the Beats software for Android. I don't think it takes away from their main focuses - developing software for Apple hardware, anymore than some limited mobile titles makes Nintendo a mobile developer.

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Krev said:

The Apple comparison is not a very apt one. Apple's greatest asset is their hardware and design. Nintendo's greatest assets are its development studios and its library of franchises.
If Nintendo's hardware fails to sell enough to justify remaining in the hardware manufacturing business, there's still a lot of money to be made from leveraging their assets. Nintendo aren't going to throw away the many millions they've invested in software development over the years just because they aren't able to keep alive their vision of being a software/hardware 'experience' company.
They'll answer the demand for their software. They are a publicly traded company after all.
What's the alternative? Dissolving the company? Risking their money on a transition to another industry with no guarantee of success?

This idea that Nintendo would go down with the ship rather than develop software without their own dedicated platform is utter nonsense.

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Krev said:

The Apple comparison is not a very apt one. Apple's greatest asset is their hardware and design. Nintendo's greatest assets are its development studios and its library of franchises.

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