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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
gkrykewy said:
Why is THQi down so much? Doesn't seem to be any negative news.
Click to expand...

It has been going down all along last week. Originally I was planning to buy some shares, then at the last moment I decided to wait for their next quarterly results which are unlikely to be rosy. I think they won't do well until the holiday period.

lil smoke said:
why is everything tanking all of a sudden?
Click to expand...

Not everything, AAPL, MSFT, MOT, NVDA (almost +2%) are up.

Koam: Know any production company that mostly depends on production of RFID?

EDIT: ADSX who own VeriChip I guess. I remember big controversies on that tech, from Christians who saw it as the mark of the beast to people worried about privacy issues and cancer risks.

EDIT2: Yeah ok everything is down:p
 
K

koam

Member
Ether_Snake said:
EDIT: ADSX who own VeriChip I guess. I remember big controversies on that tech, from Christians who saw it as the mark of the beast to people worried about privacy issues and cancer risks.
Click to expand...

I like to call those people, idiots.

I believe the one you're thinking of is the RFID implant. I'm not talknig about those although thy're good for other reasons. Imagine having an RFID implant on patients. If they're incapable of talking to doctors (comatose, major injury, can't speak the language) the RFID will hold info pertaining to allergies and medicine and such so it could be very crucial.

The RFID i'm talking about though is "access cards". Kinda like the ones you use to get into an office or building where you just wave them in front of a reader. ATMs are migrating towards those.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Yeah I was just mentioning them. Altho the issue with RFID is ease of hacking. It's difficult to hack an ATM, but not so if you can access it wirelessly (and there are concerns of identity theft, etc., for human implants, and there is no way to really protect the info that is sent from RFID). It's a sender/receiver, and this opens all sorts of security issues we never had to deal with before.

EDIT: For example, a barcode is something that is solid, that you can't change yourself. But if the barcode is encoded into something then it's possible to change it wirelessly, something that is impossible at the moment with standard barcodes. RFID, to be secure, would need to have carved info, not digital info.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Stocks fell Monday morning after Citigroup's weak profit report pummeled the financial sector and record-high oil prices raised worries about consumer spending.
Click to expand...

The odd thing about the Citigroup report is that they actually beat estimates. Not sure why that would contribute to a selloff.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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My guess is that since earnings are coming some people with a lot of money want to get in on the cheap (like last week). Damn crooks:p
 
K

koam

Member
I should have never invested in chinese stocks. I really should have stuck to what i know.

I lost $450 or so on RCH. I'm just going to sell it off and buy lots of a cheap stock. Taking advantage of the low prices today.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
market crash

I'm so dead on the virtual stock exchange!

Hopefully this is temporary.

Someone hold me!
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
koam said:
RCH and SNDK
Click to expand...

Could be worse! I bought LDK last Thursday at 48 about 15 minutes before it plunged to 41 on bad news. Nice timing, eh? Thankfully I only entered small, so I'm only down 60-70 bucks at the moment.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
koam said:
who gives a shit about VSE, i'm down in real life, pretty badly too. Good thing I have NTDOY.
Click to expand...

I'm down too man, not in the red yet but if this keeps up it won't be long before I will be.
 
K

koam

Member
gkrykewy said:
Could be worse! I bought LDK last Thursday at 48 about 15 minutes before it plunged to 41 on bad news. Nice timing, eh? Thankfully I only entered small, so I'm only down 60-70 bucks at the moment.
Click to expand...

I'm down $600+.

BUT, since I posted in this thread, both stocks have risen quite a bit. I'm keeping SNDK till their earnings later this week. As for RCH, I dunno, i'll monitor it closely, I don't want to lose too much on them. NTDOY is offsetting all my losses at the moment.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
koam said:
I'm down $600+.

BUT, since I posted in this thread, both stocks have risen quite a bit. I'm keeping SNDK till their earnings later this week. As for RCH, I dunno, i'll monitor it closely, I don't want to lose too much on them. NTDOY is offsetting all my losses at the moment.
Click to expand...

Right, but if you'd bought the wrong Chinese stock at the wrong time, with the same amount you'd presumably invested in RCH, you would have been killed. That (RCH) looks like it might be at a mini-bottom at least though.
 
K

koam

Member
gkrykewy said:
Right, but if you'd bought the wrong Chinese stock at the wrong time, with the same amount you'd presumably invested in RCH, you would have been killed. That (RCH) looks like it might be at a mini-bottom at least though.
Click to expand...

There's absolutely no way of knowing which chinese stock to buy. That market is entirely based on luck.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Tech seems to be going back up a bit.IBM earnings tonight, and I think Intel tomorrow?
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
As you know, I have been concerned about the state of the financial markets of late. Another board I'm part of has drafted an electronic petition to do something about all the double speak coming from the Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary, and President in regards to the bailing out of housing speculators, hedge funds, and banks who are selling bad CDO's (Collateralized debt obligation) to foreign investors and giving fictitious values to SIV's (Structured investment vehicle) thus artificially keeping their balance sheets in tact. Much like steroids the results of these actions are great for the for the near term but the long run they are deadly.

I would suggest each of you take the time to read and understand some of the perils facing this market moving forward. I know it seems like I've been a little too bearish for my own good lately but that's only because I try and arm myself with as much knowledge as possible.. and as they say, bears are always a little early to the party.

This week's down turn and last weeks 'tumble' on the BIDU warning and comments by ECB chairman Axel Webber are just the first warning shots in what is sure to be an epic outcome if steps aren't taken soon to get more transparency from the financial institutions that form the backbone of our economy.

So if you have time, please give the petition a read and if you agree please sign and become proactive in fighting for our regulators to be more transparent. If we let the few people at the top run rampant without a system of checks and balances they are only going to do what's best for a chosen few. However, if we push for congress to get involved perhaps we can salvage a little of what's left of our economy and avoid and potential dire consequences from the financial atrocities that have been taking place of late.

http://financialpetition.org/


Thank you for your time and be careful out there.


and here's the board where the petition originated from.
http://www.tickerforum.org
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
While I'm posting today.. here's a little manifesto I made for a couple friends who wanted to get a little more into the market. Perhaps this will help someone here.

Technical Indicators:
These allow you to get a feel where the market is headed and how strong. Below are links to the futures markets and advance/decline volumes. In large part Futures dictate where the market heads and if you see them taking off in a direction you can bet the market will soon follow. Advance/declines give you as feel as to how strong the general market is. The more stocks that are rising over falling obviously indicates a stronger market and vice versa, this more than anything tells the true story of market strength/weakness.

www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,432,00.html
www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
www.marketvolume.com/content/products/mktsum/mktsum_adv_dcln.asp

News sources:
When trading it's paramount that you stay on top of the what and when in the markets. Important reports on the economy are released all the time. Many times the market will drastically move because of these events. A smart investor will make their move based on these reports. The cowboy (such as myself) will try to predict the direction before it happens to maximize profit(or loss).

www.bloomberg.com
www.marketwatch.com
www.investors.com/

World Wide Exchanges:
The US is still the big guy on the block and by all means many markets trade around what is going on here. However as the market becomes more global it is important to keep track of what people are doing while you sleep.

www.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
www.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Forums:
Knowledge is key. There's no way one person can gather and digest all the information out there, that's why it's good to go someplace where others are gathering information and discussing it. Ticker forum is new and still pretty good. Elite Trader is full of old posts worth an incalculable amount of money and yahoo is filled with.. yahoos. Only go there as a last resort.

www.tickerforum.org/
www.elitetrader.com
www.finance.yahoo.com/

Education:
Investopedia is awesome! if you need to know anything about stocks/options/etc. this is your one stop shop.

www.investopedia.com

People I learn from:
A lot of people know a hell of a lot more than I do and so I listen and observe. Each of these links provides a daily account of the market knowledge that you can't get anywhere else. Best part of them is they're free!

http://www.garyk.com/
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=thermal1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frtj-HhDQpI
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=fxbootcamp

Books:
Here are some of the recent books I've been reading. Lots of good stuff and if you're going to get serious about trading I'd suggest getting the first two especially.

Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471225347/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0131531131/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Getting Started in Chart Patterns
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471727660/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0136137180/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Forex:
My understanding is still rather new in this field but these are the spots I've found most useful. oanda is the broker I use and the two other sites (dailyfx and Fxstreet) offer timely updates of current market situations.

www.oanda.com
www.fxstreet.com
www.dailyfx.com


Terms to become familiar with:
Risk Management, Trend Lines, Moving Averages, Candlestick Charts, Technical Analysis, Volatility, Support and Resistance levels

and remember, Tips are for waiters.
Find good companies with actual earnings, not the promise of earnings.


Lastly, and most important.. here is a post I read the other day on a message board and since I couldn't say it better myself I'm just going to quote this guy. This in regards to Forex markets but you can equate it to anything.

---------------
Here is the only advise you need to hear. Disregard at you own risk.

If you are serious about "learning" FX here is the starting point ...

STOP doing the following immediately:

Stop asking questions - most don't know their ass from a hole in the ground.
Stop listening to opinions - see above.
Stop following other's buy and sell calls - like this knucklehead nik's - see above.
Stop looking for the easy way out and shortcuts.
Stop looking to others to do YOUR leg work.

START doing the following immediately:

Study charts and when you're done study them again ... for hours, days, weeks and months. This is your mission.

Study the price action of the top FX pairs and not just the "majors". Study the action across all timeframes ... 5 min - weekly.

Study various indicators and how they behave in trending and ranging markets across different timeframes.

Study how news releases effect price action.

Based on your study, devise a game plan ... YOUR game plan.

Google your newbie questions.

Put in your time and hard work if your want to be a trader and not some forum piker/fx gambler.

Lesson over.
---------------
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
mrWalrus said:
btw if anyone has any questions.. I'll be happy to answer them.

thanks again!
Click to expand...

Thanks. Can you give an insight on why so many stocks are going down, from mining to banks to video games? On top of that today is even more irrational because Apple, Activision, and even RIM (so far) are up.

I would think that the game market is a bit more shielded because sales keep going up year-over-year, and we are finally starting to settle in "next-gen". For example Activision is having a great year, more to come, why should I sell?
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
Ether_Snake said:
Thanks. Can you give an insight on why so many stocks are going down, from mining to banks to video games? On top of that today is even more irrational because Apple, Activision, and even RIM (so far) are up.

I would think that the game market is a bit more shielded because sales keep going up year-over-year, and we are finally starting to settle in "next-gen". For example Activision is having a great year, more to come, why should I sell?
Click to expand...


My goal is and never will be to give anyone buy or sell suggestions. I don't want to be responsible for your gains or losses. I personally don't like ATVI because their PE ratio is out of this world and Bobby Kotick (CEO) sells his companies stock like it's going out of style. Not to mention the overall quality of their games is suspect at best.

They're growing, I'll give them that.. but you have to factor in what it cost for them to grow. They spent 100MM on Red Octane to acquire the the Guitar Hero franchise and now with Rock Band coming out how do you think that's going to eat into their sales? and more importantly how long is it going to take them to recoup the cost of buying the publisher? Not to mention the cost of Bizarre Creations that's probably going to go on the books for this quarter - thus eat into those 'record' profits.

Sure they might make more money this next quarter then they ever have but how much is it going to cost them to make that money? What is their Net profit going to be?

In times of recession entertainment usually stands firm but realize if we get a broad market sells off they are going to shoot everyone no matter what they do. Also take note the 20th anniversary of the crash of 87 is Oct. 19th - this Friday - and while history doesn't repeat itself it usually rhymes.

I wouldn't be a net buyer of anything right now and if I wasn't trading currencies I would probably be sitting mostly in cash. This is earnings season and one of the biggest purveyors of the banking fraud that has been going on reports earnings tomorrow, Washington Mutual.

I could talk on and on.. but in the end. If you have a good profit on ATVI don't be a pig. Maybe take some of your position off and wait for a pull back if you really like the company moving forward. After all, nobody ever went broke taking a profit. :D
 
K

koam

Member
mrWalrus said:
While I'm posting today.. here's a little manifesto I made for a couple friends who wanted to get a little more into the market. Perhaps this will help someone here.

Technical Indicators:
These allow you to get a feel where the market is headed and how strong. Below are links to the futures markets and advance/decline volumes. In large part Futures dictate where the market heads and if you see them taking off in a direction you can bet the market will soon follow. Advance/declines give you as feel as to how strong the general market is. The more stocks that are rising over falling obviously indicates a stronger market and vice versa, this more than anything tells the true story of market strength/weakness.

www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,432,00.html
www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
www.marketvolume.com/content/products/mktsum/mktsum_adv_dcln.asp

News sources:
When trading it's paramount that you stay on top of the what and when in the markets. Important reports on the economy are released all the time. Many times the market will drastically move because of these events. A smart investor will make their move based on these reports. The cowboy (such as myself) will try to predict the direction before it happens to maximize profit(or loss).

www.bloomberg.com
www.marketwatch.com
www.investors.com/

World Wide Exchanges:
The US is still the big guy on the block and by all means many markets trade around what is going on here. However as the market becomes more global it is important to keep track of what people are doing while you sleep.

www.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
www.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Forums:
Knowledge is key. There's no way one person can gather and digest all the information out there, that's why it's good to go someplace where others are gathering information and discussing it. Ticker forum is new and still pretty good. Elite Trader is full of old posts worth an incalculable amount of money and yahoo is filled with.. yahoos. Only go there as a last resort.

www.tickerforum.org/
www.elitetrader.com
www.finance.yahoo.com/

Education:
Investopedia is awesome! if you need to know anything about stocks/options/etc. this is your one stop shop.

www.investopedia.com

People I learn from:
A lot of people know a hell of a lot more than I do and so I listen and observe. Each of these links provides a daily account of the market knowledge that you can't get anywhere else. Best part of them is they're free!

http://www.garyk.com/
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=thermal1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frtj-HhDQpI
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=fxbootcamp

Books:
Here are some of the recent books I've been reading. Lots of good stuff and if you're going to get serious about trading I'd suggest getting the first two especially.

Come Into My Trading Room: A Complete Guide to Trading
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471225347/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0131531131/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Getting Started in Chart Patterns
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471727660/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0136137180/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Forex:
My understanding is still rather new in this field but these are the spots I've found most useful. oanda is the broker I use and the two other sites (dailyfx and Fxstreet) offer timely updates of current market situations.

www.oanda.com
www.fxstreet.com
www.dailyfx.com


Terms to become familiar with:
Risk Management, Trend Lines, Moving Averages, Candlestick Charts, Technical Analysis, Volatility, Support and Resistance levels

and remember, Tips are for waiters.
Find good companies with actual earnings, not the promise of earnings.


Lastly, and most important.. here is a post I read the other day on a message board and since I couldn't say it better myself I'm just going to quote this guy. This in regards to Forex markets but you can equate it to anything.

---------------
Here is the only advise you need to hear. Disregard at you own risk.

If you are serious about "learning" FX here is the starting point ...

STOP doing the following immediately:

Stop asking questions - most don't know their ass from a hole in the ground.
Stop listening to opinions - see above.
Stop following other's buy and sell calls - like this knucklehead nik's - see above.
Stop looking for the easy way out and shortcuts.
Stop looking to others to do YOUR leg work.

START doing the following immediately:

Study charts and when you're done study them again ... for hours, days, weeks and months. This is your mission.

Study the price action of the top FX pairs and not just the "majors". Study the action across all timeframes ... 5 min - weekly.

Study various indicators and how they behave in trending and ranging markets across different timeframes.

Study how news releases effect price action.

Based on your study, devise a game plan ... YOUR game plan.

Google your newbie questions.

Put in your time and hard work if your want to be a trader and not some forum piker/fx gambler.

Lesson over.
---------------
Click to expand...

Thanks, adding to the main post
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
Ether_Snake said:
Thanks. Can you give an insight on why so many stocks are going down, from mining to banks to video games?
Click to expand...
mmmm.. here's a couple reasons.


- Oil hit an all time high today (again!)

- Stocks have run a little too far lately.
Case in point RIMM is a great company but it doubled after it split and now has a $60B market cap. That is Insane! and reminiscent of the 2001 dot com bubble. We're seeing this across all stocks though from Solar to Crocs.

- Financial institutions are still a little questionable.
I don't care what anyone says the credit crunch isn't over. With all the ARM's set to reset there really is no way to tell how that's going to affect the economy moving forward. When all of a sudden people have 200-500+ less to spend every month how is that going to eat into the consumers ability to spend?

- Rising tensions around the world
Turkey is set to declare war on the the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Putin is in Iran telling the US to back off. China is pissed we're visiting with the Dalai Lama and it never ends.

- Northern Rock was talking with British Parliament today on their fucked up business practices and how it led to the first bank run in 150 years in England.

- Finally Ben Bernanke can't keep his mouth shut.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2007-10-16-stocks-tues_N.htm
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Thanks for the info.

Whatever the case I'm not selling anything, but I'm not buying. This sucks tho, I don't believe TTWO, ATVI, etc., are under valued. Look at how well Ubisoft's stock has been doing too. I feel I'm losing money because of companies I didn't invest into (banks, etc.) while the game sector is actually doing great.

BTW if you want to see when the "bubble" started look at the charts of the big companies, March 2003. Which was when the war was declared (look at any company, AAPL, RIMM, ATVI, HAL, SNE, YAHOO, etc).
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
Ether_Snake said:
Thanks for the info.

Whatever the case I'm not selling anything, but I'm not buying. This sucks tho, I don't believe TTWO, ATVI, etc., are under valued. Look at how well Ubisoft's stock has been doing too. I feel I'm losing money because of companies I didn't invest into (banks, etc.) while the game sector is actually doing great.

BTW if you want to see when the "bubble" started look at the charts of the big companies, March 2003. Which was when the war was declared (look at any company, AAPL, RIMM, ATVI, HAL, SNE, YAHOO, etc).
Click to expand...


You mean overvalued? What do you base that off of? What are they expecting for earnings? Did you listen to their last CC? What games do they have coming out next year? The market prices the stock today for where it thinks the stock is going to be 6 months from now. Meaning Q4 is already priced in.

I ask this not to be a dick but, because these are the question you have to be able to answer when owning stocks. You should do enough homework on each of your positions to have conviction for why you feel the way you do. Investing on a feeling doesn't always work too well.

Ubisoft might be up on takeover speculation. After EA gobbled up Pandemic and Bioware there is probably renewed feelings that EA will increase their stake thus the rising stock price.

Like I said, it's not my place to tell anyone where and when to put their money. I can just tell you what I see based on facts and I think once you learn a little Technical Analysis you're going to see things a little different. Here's the chart.

atvi.jpg


Do your self a favor and read up on Trend lines, MACD crossovers, MACD Histogram, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and the Head and Shoulders pattern.


The 5th birthday of this current Bull market was last weekend.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Yikes. Another plunge. What do you guys expect for 2morrow? I'm in an S&P 500 index so obviously I'm holding steady but it gets harder for a newbie like me when I have about 10 grand in there now lol
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
This guy is pretty smart.. even if he can be a little bit of a fear monger.

http://tickervideo.org/midday-1016/midday-1016.html

He like me is typically a bull but you have to trade the tape you're given. Now that I'm looking at some other charts they're all starting to look like the ATVI one above. i.e. top heavy and ready to roll over.

I'm telling you guys Technical Analysis works pretty darn good. It's worth reading up on and making a part of your skill set. Also when you look at charts don't use the line form. That doesn't tell you very much other than price.

Also learn to use Oscillators, they are lagging indicators but they'll confirm suspicion.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
k I better read on that before the markets reopen:p
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
ohh one more things that concerns me.. YHOO, INTC and IBM all just made earnings on and a much weaker dollar. I would have thought that since those guys are global companies they should have benefited more from earning money in other currencies and changing it back to $$$.

It's good to see all those guy up after hours though. Certainly better than the alternative. :D
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Nah I appreciate the info. I just feel like I'm screwed either way. I will have lost all my gains by tomorrow, which sucks because if it wasn't for this crap I'm sure I could have made a thousand on ATVI and around 700 on TTWO (I was at 550 on ATVI recently) by next spring.

Oh well!
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
Ether_Snake said:
Nah I appreciate the info. I just feel like I'm screwed either way. I will have lost all my gains by tomorrow, which sucks because if it wasn't for this crap I'm sure I could have made a thousand on ATVI and around 700 on TTWO (I was at 550 on ATVI recently) by next spring.

Oh well!
Click to expand...


Nah don't feel that way yet. The market might very rally tomorrow based on these earnings from INTC, IBM and YHOO - they seem to liking them so far. I would try to just arm yourself with a little more knowledge first before getting into a position next time. I don't know when you bought but it's not always the best idea to get in a stock once it's already been going up for a while.

The more you read up on TA the better armed you'll be to make the right decisions on when you enter and exit trades.

Besides, as I always say 'Ionly learn lessons when I make mistakes' and I've made a TON of them. If all you ever did was make the right moves you'd never learn a thing. Which of course when mean you're always picking winners but none of us are that lucky. Not even me.. and I was born on St. Patrick's Day. :D
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I picked up TTWO at 15.20 and ATVI at 17 something (I forget). IMMR was probably a big mistake at 17.01 and they are the first I would sell because it's an unprooven company, I just have faith in the tech itself they are making. I also recently bought shares from CAE (TSX: CAE, NYSE: CGT). I feel they are totally under valued but I can't do an analysis like you do so it was based on earnings, contracts, competition, etc.

Anyway I'll look into all of this when I get back home.
 
J

Javaman

Member
mrWalrus said:
Do your self a favor and read up on Trend lines, MACD crossovers, MACD Histogram, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and the Head and Shoulders pattern.


The 5th birthday of this current Bull market was last weekend.
Click to expand...

That sounds awful complicated when someone could realize slightly less gains with much less risk and hassle by letting decent mutual fund managers do all of the hard work. Seriously, most of these guys have the skills and insider knowledge of companies along with fast access to selling and buying that is far beyond what the typical day trader can handle. Things are fine and dandy for investing by yourself if the market is going up and up, but when things get rocky like they appear to be right now, the above mentioned advantages are vital to keep the money flowing in the positive and minimizing the negatives.
 
R

_Rafa_

Banned
got 5000$ to invest. I think ill be investing in energy first since its doing well these days. Don't know witch company yet thought. I'll try to buy one thats has a buy signal maybe tomorrow or thursday. I'll start with 1000-1500. Any suggestions?
 
M

Maxwell House

Member
Javaman said:
That sounds awful complicated when someone could realize slightly less gains with much less risk and hassle by letting decent mutual fund managers do all of the hard work. Seriously, most of these guys have the skills and insider knowledge of companies along with fast access to selling and buying that is far beyond what the typical day trader can handle. Things are fine and dandy for investing by yourself if the market is going up and up, but when things get rocky like they appear to be right now, the above mentioned advantages are vital to keep the money flowing in the positive and minimizing the negatives.
Click to expand...
80% of fund managers do worse than the market.
 
M

Maxwell House

Member
_Rafa_ said:
got 5000$ to invest. I think ill be investing in energy first since its doing well these days. Don't know witch company yet thought. I'll try to buy one thats has a buy signal maybe tomorrow or thursday. I'll start with 1000-1500. Any suggestions?
Click to expand...
BP is one of my favorite energy stocks. It is a longer term play, though (not good for short term profit goals).
 
J

Javaman

Member
Maxwell House said:
80% of fund managers do worse than the market.
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The market as an index or the market compared to day traders? The latter isn't averaging anywhere close to the index either. :lol
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
Javaman said:
That sounds awful complicated when someone could realize slightly less gains with much less risk and hassle by letting decent mutual fund managers do all of the hard work. Seriously, most of these guys have the skills and insider knowledge of companies along with fast access to selling and buying that is far beyond what the typical day trader can handle. Things are fine and dandy for investing by yourself if the market is going up and up, but when things get rocky like they appear to be right now, the above mentioned advantages are vital to keep the money flowing in the positive and minimizing the negatives.
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Success doesn't come easy but it's no harder than going to school and even easier if your interested in it. Get the first two books on my list and you'll be well on your way. Then just keep up with the day's events and you'll be a leg up on the majority of others out there.

TA is pretty damn easy to tell you the truth. If you can remember shapes and what certain things mean you'll really have no problems. It's all just numbers after all. Like anything, the more you know the easier it is.. and of course all that up there sounds like greek but I promise you after a little while it becomes old hate.

I would never let mutual funds use my money because they don't have my best interest in mind. Only I do. That's why I say I'll never out and out tell anyone what they should do. i didn't research your stock and I don't have the time too.

Listening to some of the people I posted above under the 'Who I Learn From' will get you far too. Cause reading is all well and good but when you see other people put it to use it all starts to come together.

Edit:
I was up 76% last year on my equity account. I only just recently fell HARD after front running the Fed rate cut. That was bad move - lesson learned? don't fight the Fed.

I took what I had left out of stocks and now I'm up over 1200% on my Forex account in my first month (that's with 50 to 1 leverage).. I'd like to see a mutual fund get you that. Not saying I'm going to continue at that same pace cause by all means I'm very surprised. I think it's just a case of capitalizing on some very unique opportunities due to the falling value of the dollar and all the bank nonsense going on world wide. FOREX is pretty wild west and I'd suggest anyone who is interested to open a demo account before trading there for real. I burnt through my first 50k demo account in three days. Ouch!
 
E

Ether_Snake

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I never recommend anything as a buy (or sell), because like mrWalrus I don't want to be the cause of your losses;) Plus the energy sector is one I don't understand.

I think RIO will go back up even after the recent drop that affected everyone. They are a metal/mining company and China's demand is growing constantly. Rising oil prices would have a negative impact but I think China's demand can offset that to some extent. Don't listen to me tho!

Royal Dutch Shell has a lot of ups and downs so it's easier to catch on a fall than Exxon or BP for example.

mrWalrus: What do you think of matching graphs? I noticed that RIO (mining/metal) and ITU have extremely similar graphs for the past 5 years, along with a few other Brazilian businesses.

Compare RIO with:

ITU (Banking services) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=RIO&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=ITU
GGB (another metal/steel business) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=RIO&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=GGB
PBR (oil company) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=RIO&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=PBR

Can it be a good thing to invest in matching stocks (I presume you'll tell me to look at the financials/etc instead, but I always do, at least as far as my understanding of them goes;) ).

EDIT: Everything is green in the after hours at the moment. But you know investors, if there is a rally tomorrow it will only be to then proceed to a major saleoff because they won't trust the market in such a short time, they'll just want their gains back, or reduce their loses before running. That's my guess anyway. If there is a rally tomorrow, a strong one, I might sell at the end of the day.

BTW KOAM!! I know you like LEDs, I found this interesting: http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/071016/128810.html
Hopefully a starting trend:)
 
M

Maxwell House

Member
Javaman said:
The market as an index or the market compared to day traders? The latter isn't averaging anywhere close to the index either. :lol
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The market as in the SP500 specifically (that was the index used in the study). And that is before adding in the expenses and fees funds charge you. The average expenses and fees you will pay on a mutual fund is 2 to 4% of your fund balance, so right from the start, they'd have to outperform the SP500 by 2 to 4% just for you to come out even.
 
M

mrWalrus

Banned
Maxwell House said:
80% of fund managers do worse than the market.
Click to expand...

I think they do so on purpose too. Granted it's hard to shift positions totaling in the millions of shares but don't think for one second the guys on Wall St. don't get theirs first.

The game is rigged people.. but if you figure out how they are rigging it you can easily make it work for you.
 
J

Javaman

Member
Maxwell House said:
The market as in the SP500 specifically (that was the index used in the study). And that is before adding in the expenses and fees funds charge you. The average expenses and fees you will pay on a mutual fund is 2 to 4% of your fund balance, so right from the start, they'd have to outperform the SP500 by 2 to 4% just for you to come out even.
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It all really depends on the level of risk one is willing to take. Index->Mutual--->Individual Stocks (Ignoring safer then index mutuals that invest in bonds). I'm arguing that mutual funds are less risky and tend to gain more then individual day traders while you're doing the same for Index funds. It's almost like we're arguing the same thing, just at different levels.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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BTW I found a housing starts index, could be worth adding to the OP?

http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html

Maybe we could make an Economic Indicator list.

Also the Bureau of Labor statistics page can be interesting: http://www.bls.gov/

And the Census Bureau for things like monthly retail sales, homeownership, etc. (USA) http://www.census.gov/

EDIT: Wow, thanks to mrWalrus I started looking at the overall performance of the DOW and NASDAQ for the past two years in comparison to specific stocks like ERTS, ATVI, RIMM, etc., and it can be a pretty good indicator if you want to play it safe (look at the DOW's previous peak to figure out when to sell, etc.).
 
M

Maxwell House

Member
mrWalrus said:
I think they do so on purpose too. Granted it's hard to shift positions totaling in the millions of shares but don't think for one second the guys on Wall St. don't get theirs first.

The game is rigged people.. but if you figure out how they are rigging it you can easily make it work for you.
Click to expand...
I really doubt fund managers lose money on purpose. They get a % from each dollar in their fund, so if they underperform, money leaves, and they get paid MUCH less.

One thing that makes it harder for funds to make money than an individual investor is that they are investing a huge amount of money, leaving them much less flexibility in terms of what kind of companie they can buy. They most certainly can't buy many smaller companies with low outstanding shares numbers and low volume. Many markets are cut off from the bigger funds.
 
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