LegendofDragoonLives
Member
Ahh I thought YTD was full sales for the full year. It's sales up to this point then, that makes sense.
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Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2015 (Aug 17 - Aug 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
It depends on when it comes out and what's released prior.
If this is releasing post Dragon Quest XI (which seems likely), it's plausible a lot of people jump in with that who would have ended up buying the system for Final Fantasy XV.
That said, this could be pretty obscured if the game comes out in December 2016. If it takes until March 2017 instead, it will be more clear.
Mario 3D World did help move the needle IIRC, but it clearly put a damper on future titles doing so since it appeals to very similar audiences in terms of being a must have title.
Is it really the same thing though with how limited the library for the WiiU was and is? You basically have almost no business owning one unless you like Nintendo games. Not to mention Mario etc. are also well represented on 3DS.
The PS4 is quite different in that regard. You buy it and you know you will have access to pretty much all major third party games both from and outside of Japan for the entire generation.
So yeah, I expect FFXV to do really well for PS4 hardware.
Major games? You mean like Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch?
Right now SE really seems to represent the sole mainstream sales driver for the PS4 in Japan. There's definitely a good spread of supplementary content (Yakuza, Tales, Musou, etc) to pad that but the DQ/FF/KH argument really isn't all that much different from the Mario/Kart/Smash one.
I'd need to re-see numbers around Mario 3D's release, I don't recall them being that spectacular. I want to add to the fact that people in Japan aren't really buying new retail PS4 software right now may help indicate a lot of them are indeed buying PS4s as a future investment.
In Japan, the reason to own PS4 is basically solely as a Square Enix/RPG machine, there's quite a lot of overlap there that, perhaps not on Nintendo's level, is certainly there.
One issue Sony is going to continue to have is that there are basically only four third party publishers that are capable of moving lots of hardware as far as I can tell.
There's Square Enix, who has several major flagship titles and a variety of mid-tier games.
There's Capcom, who is fading, but still manages to pull in sizable audiences with Monster Hunter and Resident Evil.
There's Level 5, who has shown an ability to consistently launch major children's properties.
And there's Bandai Namco, who usually doesn't make titles that individually sell a lot, but makes so many games catering to so many different niche interests, that having heavy support from them brings a ton of small audiences to your platform and gives everyone a steady stream of games to play.
While other publishers can help, you want several of the primary players for your platform to be successful.
Nintendo, of course, is also a huge draw, but they're obviously not going to release games on PlayStation platforms.
There's Square Enix, who has several major flagship titles and a variety of mid-tier games.
There's Capcom, who is fading, but still manages to pull in sizable audiences with Monster Hunter and Resident Evil.
There's Level 5, who has shown an ability to consistently launch major children's properties.
And there's Bandai Namco, who usually doesn't make titles that individually sell a lot, but makes so many games catering to so many different niche interests, that having heavy support from them brings a ton of small audiences to your platform and gives everyone a steady stream of games to play.
While other publishers can help, you want several of the primary players for your platform to be successful.
Nintendo, of course, is also a huge draw, but they're obviously not going to release games on PlayStation platforms.
Keep in mind that PS4 is bundled with Bloodborne.
In Japan? Not really. The NX could completely undermine this whole narrative if it comes out with even a modicum of the successes of the 3DS, and eats up the local industry again. Of course, I expect more and more titles to go multiplat where before theyy were PS3/PS4/Vita only or WiiU(hah)/3DS only... so then you'd be weighing exclusives. I think its fairly self-evident which company has the stronger of said offerings.
Worldwide brands? Definitely, but how much of the Japanese audience cares?
They are buying and trading used games. The "at retail" software arm is really bad at the moment (you'll see that much by simply following the Dengeki weekly software breakdowns) but there's free Bloodborne plus a decently fleshed out used market.
In Japan handhelds are sort of where the major games go now. Well, handheld devices anyway.
twothunder
Member
Quite some drops. Expected but still.
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer still doing very good numbers. Even Animal Crossing: New Leaf still selling a few thousand
Splatoon not dropping below 20K. Showing those tentacles.
Rhythm Heaven doing okay.
Minecraft being Minecraft
Not much beyond that.
A shame really. Lets hope Mario Maker does well
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer still doing very good numbers. Even Animal Crossing: New Leaf still selling a few thousand
Splatoon not dropping below 20K. Showing those tentacles.
Rhythm Heaven doing okay.
Minecraft being Minecraft
Not much beyond that.
A shame really. Lets hope Mario Maker does well
SE has made quite the impression but a lot of that is due to fairly recent developments.
I fully expect other companies to start making their moves soon as well. Capcom has SFV and has announced REmake 2. We know RE7 is in development and fully expect a DMC5.
Then there's Sega who is apparently planning a return to form. With SE out of the way, Verendus expects Sega to impress next. Some hate on him but he was right on the money with SE.
Then there are other games that are getting announced like that Valkyrie Profile successor, Summon Night 6, Tecmo saying they have more PS4 exclusive etc. Not huge titles sure but they add up.
The point is that things are taking time but they are happening. What I'm expecting to get out of Japan now is well beyond the expectations I had for them after last generation.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Yeah I'm keen on what Atlus and SEGA will bring to the PS4. Apart form Persona, Yakuza and Miku, both have been said to be working on new projects.
privitsan02
Member
Wait, the Xbox One hasn't even sold 100k in Japan yet?
I don't even think will sell 100k lifetime...
Pretty much all 4 of those companies are working on PS4. Almost every Square game is announced for the platform, a few have exclusivity or timed exclusivity. Capcom bringing SFV soon, and RE7 and DMC5 aren't far off. Both of which will definitely be on PS4. I could see Monster Hunter going multiplat if NX is comparable in power to PS4. Level 5 has a PS4 project in development. Bamco has a bunch of PS4 projects in development.
Don't get me wrong, consoles are still dead in Japan lol, but Sony has already courted all four of those pubs for their platform.
For two of them (Square Enix and Namco), I feel they're definitely there in the way that they're most meaningful.
For Capcom, while I'm expecting Resident Evil to show up, a mainline Monster Hunter is by far the biggest thing left in their bag, so I consider there half present unless something changes.
While Level 5 does have a PS4 game (assuming it still exists), I don't think that's actually meaningful unless it's the type of multimedia kids project that they actually make into large successes instead of (figuratively or literally) the next Ni No Kuni or Dark Cloud or etc. Of course, the question is if they could actually make something like that work on a home console, and why they even would when they could just make another handheld game where they know their odds of success are pretty good.
Sony is certainly trying to round up whoever they can though, and seems to be having success, but it's a very uphill climb in general.
KillerMan91
Member
sörine;176620793 said:
Gamecube vs PS3 pretty much shows the difference between having only Nintendo supporting the platform (no matter how big their franchises are) vs good to great third party support. There is just a much more overlap between various Nintendo games (on home consoles) compared to overlap of titles like MGS, RE and FF. I mean at the end of this gen WiiU's top 5 selling titles might have higher sales than the top 5 of PS3 and yet it wont reach even half of the totals of PS3.
Are you suggesting that PS4 could replicate ps3 Ltd because of third party support? Because I think that despite the support will not be able to match it, somehow decreasing the impact of your, still valid, point
KillerMan91
Member
Oh. I don't think PS4 will live long enough to reach PS3s ltd (PS5 will be released probably earlier than PS4 was). Still it will probably have same kind of sales curve as PS3 had (never setting the charts on fire but selling decently year after year).
You forgot Rockstar games, which should be bigger than any Non-Square publisher you mentioned.
There's also Polyphony (GT), and Japan Studio (I think Everybody's Golf is their only "big" franchise in Japan).
Hero of Legend
Member
sörine;176629028 said:
Even if Sonic does actually show up on PS4 and XBO (shocked that we seemingly won't see one in 2015 after the deal ended), I kind of feel it's way too late for Sonic to make any sort of mark anywhere in the world, because Sonic's got many games already on Wii U, and thanks to Smash and a lot of amiibo cameos, he's firmly attached to Nintendo systems, I might even say it's fitting.
Point is, as far as I know neither PS4 and XBO have any sort of family demographic yet, maybe Minecraft or the usual Skylanders and such in the west have a small base, but I think sales-wise, everything's against Sega even bothering bringing Sonic to PS4 and XBO, not to mention any benefits Sega can gain from Nintendo if Sonic stays exclusive.
Just find you naming Sonic as one game a bit odd.
I mean I wouldn't be surprised if he does show up at some point (if not next year for the anniversary, then I think any chance is out the window).And the fact of the matter is; no matter the system (even Wii), Sonic sells horrifically in Japan, most sell like only 5,000 units first week and never show up again.
Gran Turismo 6 wasn't very big in Japan:
45 - PS3 Gran Turismo 6: 187,640 / 376,432
Hot Shots sold pretty well, but I'm not convinced that's going to sell anywhere near what it did next time around.
Rockstar has one title every four years. It's not going to be a notable factor in a platform's success.
I mentioned the publishers I did not because of individual games, but due to the cumulative effect on an annual basis caused by their output.
That's sort of an odd comparison to make, given GC had semi-decent 3rd party support (Tales, RE, FF spinoff, etc) and a relatively full release schedule while it was around. A better example of a system with Wii U-like software landscape (long empty droughts broken by huge 1st party efforts and little else) is probably N64, which is also a system that both Vita and PS4 might fail to match in Japanese hardware sales despite notable 3rd party pushes.
I'm also not sure if there's really less audience overlap from RE to Metal Gear to FF than there would be from say Zelda to Mario to Pokemon. Of course that wasn't the argument either, it was overlap in the top tier hardware movers; Smash/Kart/Mario on one side vs DQ/FF/KH on the other.
Oh, I didn't know Gran Turismo 6 had that big of a dropoff in Japan, I thought I heard somewhere that it sold over 500k.
It remains to be seen if GTAV's explosion in Japan would impact the sales of the next Red Dead game (or any of their open world IPs), though.
Really? I don't think you realize the impact redesign and price drop had for PS3 .that year.
And the PS3 slim, that boost the PS3 at >150k during the first week of September.
With 19 weeks remaining for 2015
Code:
+--------------------------+--------------------------+
| PS3 | PS4 |
+----+----------+----------+----+----------+----------+
|YEAR| YTD | LTD |YEAR| YTD | LTD |
+----+----------+----------+----+----------+----------+
|2006| 457.557| 457.557|2013| | |
|2007| 1.184.114| 1.641.671|2014| 970.667| 970.667|
|2008| 980.797| 2.622.468|2015| 723.365| 1.694.032|
|2009| 1.878.899| 4.501.367|2016| | |
|2010| 1.586.123| 6.087.490|2017| | |
|2011| 1.548.895| 7.636.385|2018| | |
|2012| 1.223.699| 8.860.084|2019| | |
|2013| 849.590| 9.709.674|2020| | |
|2014| 459.317|10.168.991|2021| | |
|2015| 174.016|10.343.007|2022| | |
+----+----------+----------+----+----------+----------+I can't be the only one to think that PS4 has a very decent shot at 2 million in 2016.
3.5 million. And I did say might.
TheSpoiler
Member
So about 100k for Sengoku Basara 4?
Amazing.
Glorious.
Edit: It seems a far bigger issue for Sony is transferring people over to the PS4 side. Next year, I assume many publishers are going to drop support for the PS3 like Koei is, which is a huge headliner for console games, especially Sony.
Amazing.
Glorious.
Edit: It seems a far bigger issue for Sony is transferring people over to the PS4 side. Next year, I assume many publishers are going to drop support for the PS3 like Koei is, which is a huge headliner for console games, especially Sony.
astrogamer
Member
After the Wii U and its failure to reach anywhere close to that and the PS4 following similar trends, 2 million is pretty out there especially since it lacks decisive titles outside of the Square trio. 1.5 million might be pretty possible but without a game like Splatoon or something, I don't think it would be possible.
Who knows, miracles happen.
KillerMan91
Member
sörine;176637875 said:
Well yeah maybe N64 is closer comparison (PS4 will have more third party support than Gamecube though). Still I really don't see how PS4 would sell less than N64. It will be slow burner like PS3 with somewhat lower sales but something like half of PS3? Well everything is of course possible.
Also regarding of your original post I misread it (I blame the late night for that lol). Yeah when it comes to DQ/FF/KH there might be similar overlap to Smash/Kart/Mario. It has been forever though since we have had mainline games on same platform for those franchises so it remains to be seen.
but... dragon quest, final fantasy, kingdom hearts, nier, dark souls 3, the last guardian, unannounced games.. COME ON
edit: ah, you said square trio, and i then listed the square trio. my bad.
KillerMan91
Member
RE7 could be late 2016 title. Not saying that PS4 is going to sell 2 million next year though.
what do you think ps4 will sell in total this year?
KillerMan91
Member
1.2 - 1.3 million for this year is my guess. Kinda also depends on does Sony do the price drop this year or next and how much it will be (5 k or 10 k yen). Earlier this year I strongly believed the price drop will come this year but after seeing how well PS4 has hold on worldwide compared to last year I am not exactly sure anymore. I also don't think they will to regional price drops with PS4 (so worldwide drop or not at all).
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
sörine;176629028 said:
Sonic is absolutely meaningless for Japan. Not sure why you mentioned it when a game can barely even sell 10K on 3DS these days.
Dragon Quest XI coming out when it does (following 2 Heroes and Builders) also lowers its system selling potential (by itself).
Where stuff like Resident Evil and Final Fantasy were the first of its kind on PS3 (which pushed it to its best year ever, along with those other factors).
Where stuff like Resident Evil and Final Fantasy were the first of its kind on PS3 (which pushed it to its best year ever, along with those other factors).
So far, Mario Kart 8 sold 250k in 2015, so 400k this year seem likely to happen.
Adding to the 850k of last year, that's a total of 1,250,000.
>1,600,000 for Mario Kart seem about right ( and withouth digital ).
...Maybe Splatoon will sell 1,800,000 lifetime?
2M mark including digital!??!?!!?!? D: D: D:
Jesus...
Adding to the 850k of last year, that's a total of 1,250,000.
>1,600,000 for Mario Kart seem about right ( and withouth digital ).
Code:
Mario Kart 8 sales Prediction:
[2014] 850,000
[2015] 400,000
[2016] 250,000
[2017] 100,000...Maybe Splatoon will sell 1,800,000 lifetime?
2M mark including digital!??!?!!?!? D: D: D:
Jesus...