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Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2015 (Aug 17 - Aug 23)

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Glad you're doing this for yet another year. Always enjoyed the road to tgs posts. I'm not sure it is too much trouble, but I would love to see a release date category if possible.

I will put in the closest thing to a release date as possible, if it was specified.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
At this point we can add Sony to the list of major traditional Japanese publishers with a hit mobile game. This is Sony Music Entertainment Japan (Aniplex) and not SCEJ, mind, but still, I think that basically leaves Capcom, Level 5, and Nintendo.

fatezauc8.png


Thanks, I didn't know that. Is it just a re-skinned version of V or is it really a new entry?

Great question, but no clue. I'm guessing at least the music will be different. We will probably find out more as we near TGS.
 
DAT splatoon legs

btw it's weird people is still buying Super Mario Bros WII U, but not Super Mario 3D World

3D Mario games do not perform as well as 2D Mario games historically. NSMB Wii U also had bundles that may still have a bit of stock kicking around.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
At this point we can add Sony to the list of major traditional Japanese publishers with a hit mobile game. This is Sony Music Entertainment Japan (Aniplex) and not SCEJ, mind, but still, I think that basically leaves Capcom, Level 5, and Nintendo.

fatezauc8.png




Great question, but no clue. I'm guessing at least the music will be different. We will probably find out more as we near TGS.

Yeah, it seems Fate/Grand Order, despite the major problems at launch on Android (IIRC) is hitting the right notes for the Japanese mobile audience.
 

Vena

Member
Well, it is going to get a massive spike when Metal Gear Solid comes out next week, but there's other games coming for PS4 this year such as Persona, Star Ocean, Hot Shots Golf, but I don't really know what you mean by "it won't come close." Are you saying it won't come close to the minimum I had which was 1.2 million, or the maximum I had which was 1.6 million?

The majority of your list will not move hardware in meaningful quantities.

1.2m is the reasonable number to hope for, 1.6m is a number to expect if you think Splatoon is coming to the PS4.

By the way, the PS4 will sell a lot more this year in Japan than PS3 did in 2008, which was a little over 1 million, good for the PS4!!

2008 is the third year to market for the PS3, and was also far from being the market leader. The comparison is a bad one and omits the details of the environment in which there was also a healthy Sony handheld, the Wii, and the DS as well as an Xbox that sold more than a 100 units.

At this point we can add Sony to the list of major traditional Japanese publishers with a hit mobile game. This is Sony Music Entertainment Japan (Aniplex) and not SCEJ, mind, but still, I think that basically leaves Capcom, Level 5, and Nintendo.

fatezauc8.png

Its Sony but its not Sony's gaming division, which I find a little funny. :p What is the machination for spending for Grand Order anyway? Gatchapon?
 
The majority of your list will not move hardware in meaningful quantities.

1.2m is the reasonable number to hope for, 1.6m is a number to expect if you think Splatoon is coming to the PS4.



2008 is the third year to market for the PS3, and was also far from being the market leader. The comparison is a bad one and omits the details of the environment in which there was also a healthy Sony handheld, the Wii, and the DS as well as an Xbox that sold more than a 100 units.

PS3 launched at the end of 2006 and therefore 2008 was for the most part PS3 second year.
 

horuhe

Member
DAT splatoon legs

btw it's weird people is still buying Super Mario Bros WII U, but not Super Mario 3D World

Well, Japan really loves 2D platform games. Since that, I can see it pretty logic. Mario Maker will benefit from this and the bundle, but don't know exactly until what point.
 

Vena

Member
PS3 launched at the end of 2006 and therefore 2008 was for the most part PS3 second year.

While this is true, its counted by when the system released (plus it includes an additional high uptake by market holiday season which leads to saturation faster).
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
After discuss about PS4, what do you guys think about Wii U?

I expect 750,000 this year, but what if at the end 2015 become the peak year with >900k?
 
Then, i will go with a bit over 100k for PS4 in September.
Some like:
[WEEK 36] 50,000
[WEEK 37] 20,000
[WEEK 38] 15,000
[WEEK 39] 15,000
If it doesn't hit 100K this upcoming month, all hope is lost in Japan. :'(

So what will PS4 sell in total this year? Every week is a massive YOY increase and the PS4 is just 200k away from it's total 2014 sales, and September will be huge. I think it could land in the 1.2-1.6 million ballpark.
I am confused. Last YTD says 671.683, YTD is 723.365. Doesn't that mean last year totals was just under 700K and this year already at 723K. Why are you saying it's 200K away from 14' sales? Someone dumb this down for me, because I have a feeling I'm wrong...
 
So what will PS4 sell in total this year? Every week is a massive YOY increase and the PS4 is just 200k away from it's total 2014 sales, and September will be huge. I think it could land in the 1.2-1.6 million ballpark.

By the way, the PS4 will sell a lot more this year in Japan than PS3 did in 2008, which was a little over 1 million, good for the PS4!!

I would expect it to.

MGSV
Star Ocean 5
Persona 5
Dragon Quest Builders

I doubt TGS will reveal a notable PS4 game to release this year.

I'm going to try posting up the first part of the Road to TGS this week after the Famitsu stuff finishes leaking.

Was there anything people wanted beyond the following information?

Title, Publisher, Developer, Platforms, Genre, Notes.

Notes would include anything especially notable about the title.

I'm trying to post less of these this year so there's more potential to discuss a large list at a time instead of just 2-3 entries popping up in isolation.

Can I have a link to last years summary post :p
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Yeah, it seems Fate/Grand Order, despite the major problems at launch on Android (IIRC) is hitting the right notes for the Japanese mobile audience.

I believe it didn't work on iOS at first either, at least judging by the reviews.

Its Sony but its not Sony's gaming division, which I find a little funny. :p What is the machination for spending for Grand Order anyway? Gatchapon?
It's largely the same as your average f2p game: http://kairosity.tumblr.com/post/125576872324/fategrand-order-how-to-play

Gachapon, stamina bar, inventory expansion, etc.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
The majority of your list will not move hardware in meaningful quantities.

1.2m is the reasonable number to hope for, 1.6m is a number to expect if you think Splatoon is coming to the PS4.



2008 is the third year to market for the PS3, and was also far from being the market leader. The comparison is a bad one and omits the details of the environment in which there was also a healthy Sony handheld, the Wii, and the DS as well as an Xbox that sold more than a 100 units.



Its Sony but its not Sony's gaming division, which I find a little funny. :p What is the machination for spending for Grand Order anyway? Gatchapon?

I think maybe Animal Crossing or Yokai Watch would have been a better example of a hardware mover, considering Splatoon managed to only bring the Wii U slightly above last year's numbers, which weren't very good to begin with. As another user already stated, 2008 is pretty much PS3's second year, and the PS4 will do better than the PS3. PS4's 2016 will more than likely surpass PS3's peak year, 2009, which was around 1.87m. I base that off of how loaded PS4's 2016 is in terms of games, and the price cut it will surely recieve.
 

deleted

Member
Well, Japan really loves 2D platform games. Since that, I can see it pretty logic. Mario Maker will benefit from this and the bundle, but don't know exactly until what point.

I completely forgot that Mario Maker will most likely be a worthy follow up Holiday Seller to Smash last year and will most likely move some Hardware too. I'd have never imagined that the Wii U in 2015 would/could sell better then in 2014..
 

Vena

Member
I think maybe Animal Crossing or Yokai Watch would have been a better example of a hardware mover, considering Splatoon managed to only bring the Wii U slightly above last year's numbers, which weren't very good to begin with. As another user already stated, 2008 is pretty much PS3's second year, and the PS4 will do better than the PS3. PS4's 2016 will more than likely surpass PS3's peak year, 2009, which was around 1.87m. I base that off of how loaded PS4's 2016 is in terms of games, and the price cut it will surely recieve.

Those are handheld franchises, Splatoon has managed to increase the baseline of a console with no games or future potential. Splatoon on a healthier platform would have had the possibility of actually leading to something healthy long-term with proper support, its one of the rare and genuine "a game to buy a console for" events to hit the mass market of Japan and not the microcosm of NeoGaf, and we're talking about a dead weight console that everyone knows is dead weight at this point.

2008 for the PS3 had seen more holiday seasons Nov-Jan (the time where a very large % of annual sales go) than the PS4 by 2015. And as I said, you're ignoring the reality of the market conditions then and now.

Also, given the modus operandi of this generation, let's count our chickens on "loaded in terms of games" when they actually hatch.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
If it doesn't hit 100K this upcoming month, all hope is lost in Japan. :'(


I am confused. Last YTD says 671.683, YTD is 723.365. Doesn't that mean last year totals was just under 700K and this year already at 723K. Why are you saying it's 200K away from 14' sales? Someone dumb this down for me, because I have a feeling I'm wrong...

The PS4's launch week in February 2014 was over 300k, it sold 60k the next week, so the PS4's 2014 sales had a huge advantage over PS4's 2015 sales. The PS4 in 2015, every week except the PS4's launch week and it's second week, has been out performing PS4's 2014 sales by well over 50%. PS4's 2015 sales just recently passed the 2014 sales in the same time frame, and is closing in on 2014's total sales of 970k very quickly.
 

casiopao

Member
At this point we can add Sony to the list of major traditional Japanese publishers with a hit mobile game. This is Sony Music Entertainment Japan (Aniplex) and not SCEJ, mind, but still, I think that basically leaves Capcom, Level 5, and Nintendo.

fatezauc8.png




Great question, but no clue. I'm guessing at least the music will be different. We will probably find out more as we near TGS.


Well, this is after all, Fate series which had probably one of the biggest rabid fans lol. Their facebook fan group dedicated for English player have even reached 4.400+ in almost 2 month. It is not surprising to see how it stays on top there.^_^ Not to mention the recent "Eiyuu no Ou Gilgamesh" 3 million download commemoration event which will add more event for the players to play.

This game is truly example of "Yorokobe Shounen" lol.^_^ Everyone have been re rolling like crazy and trying to get SSR by doing so crazy and stupid ritual lol.

All the hype have actually makes many of its fans to ignore how bad the "Unlimited Maintenance Works" happen during the early month and of course how bad the AP recovery take. As it took a very long time to even recover a bit AP.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
After discuss about PS4, what do you guys think about Wii U?

I expect 750,000 this year, but what if at the end 2015 become the peak year with >900k?

To me you are way too optimistic in terms of YtD numbers for Wii U too. Here I quote my take on the matter:

PS4 YtD 2014 (MC numbers): 970.667
So far the YoY increase is not that high (0.2%) but due to launch numbers of last year, I suppose. Recently, since the introduction of Bloodborne code and the announcement of DQXI, it seems to have increased its pace compared to last year. I'd say that a 10% increase is doable, so I tend to agree with the 1.15/1.2 millions as YtD 2015 for PS4, unless Sony will introduce some sort of price cut alongside the Christmas festivities.

About Wii U, YtD 2014 (MC numbers): 618.150
So far the increase is the same as PS4, +0..2%, but the Splatoon launch effectively changed its weekly baseline. Last year's bundles were uneffective in terms of holiday bump: this year one's is actually even worst in terms of actual "economical value", but I think that Wii U's ability to beat its past YtD is baed on the possible Super Mario Maker popularity. If the game will gain momentum, alongside an "evergreen" Splatoon it could lead up to a small YoY increase, anyway probably smaller than the PS4 one, so I'd say that it could end selling around 650k YtD 2015.

Despite it being the only console actually successfull in Japan, 3DS YoY comparison will be the more "tough": last year's YtD was 3.176.525 thanks to the NEW models introduced. I suppose that in a month and a half the YoY comparison will be way worst than the actual - 15%. I think it will probably end around 2 millions YtD 2015, with a drop around 33% or higher.

I imagine a similar drop YoY even for PSVita (1.168.570 YtD 2014, MC numbers), that could end up around 850k YtD 2015 I suppose.
 

Jigorath

Banned
At this point we can add Sony to the list of major traditional Japanese publishers with a hit mobile game. This is Sony Music Entertainment Japan (Aniplex) and not SCEJ, mind, but still, I think that basically leaves Capcom, Level 5, and Nintendo.

fatezauc8.png

Gonna make more money then any of Sony's published Vita games.
 

Vena

Member
This game is truly example of "Yorokobe Shounen" lol.^_^ Everyone have been re rolling like crazy and trying to get SSR by doing so crazy and stupid ritual lol.

All the hype have actually makes many of its fans to ignore how bad the "Unlimited Maintenance Works" happen during the early month and of course how bad the AP recovery take. As it took a very long time to even recover a bit AP.

This may just lead to it having a faster drop-off than normal, then, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, its based off of a very popular series and universe, so it has a lot going for it if it is even a half-decent game.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
Those are handheld franchises, Splatoon has managed to increase the baseline of a console with no games or future potential. Splatoon on a healthier platform would have had the possibility of actually leading to something healthy long-term with proper support, its one of the rare and genuine "a game to buy a console for" events to hit the mass market of Japan and not the microcosm of NeoGaf, and we're talking about a dead weight console that everyone knows is dead weight at this point.

2008 for the PS3 had seen more holiday seasons Nov-Jan (the time where a very large % of annual sales go) than the PS4 by 2015. And as I said, you're ignoring the reality of the market conditions then and now.

Also, given the modus operandi of this generation, let's count our chickens on "loaded in terms of games" when they actually hatch.

Yeah I agree, but we know Dragon Quest XI is coming to the PS4 next year, so that will be like 200-300k hardware sales right there, and if Final Fantasy XV finally releases next year, that's like 180-200k hardware sales right there. In Final Fantasy XIII week the PS3 sold 237k, so I don't think the 180-200k number for Final Fantasy XV is too far off.
 
At this point we can add Sony to the list of major traditional Japanese publishers with a hit mobile game. This is Sony Music Entertainment Japan (Aniplex) and not SCEJ, mind, but still, I think that basically leaves Capcom, Level 5, and Nintendo.

Pretty surprised how popular this gotten with its awful launch and how sadistic the gatcha is in this game.

I guess FATE fans though.
 

Vena

Member
Yeah I agree, but we know Dragon Quest XI is coming to the PS4 next year, so that will be like 200-300k hardware sales right there, and if Final Fantasy XV finally releases next year, that's like 180-200k hardware sales right there. In Final Fantasy XIII week the PS3 sold 237k, so I don't think the 180-200k number for Final Fantasy XV is too far off.

Depends. Does DQXI actually come out CY2016, and does it do so before the NX launches? Or does DQXI launch in FY2016 or tail end of 2016, and the NX is out and has the PS4 version of DQXI... ehh. Moreover, I don't know why you think it will move 200-300k units when the majority of the sales will be on the 3DS. Smash WiiU didn't move 200k-300k units, and that was a holiday launch.

Final Fantasy is a damaged brand. And FFXV is a clusterfuck, let's not try to base anything on past precedent, not after FFXIII happened and the series fell down the rabbit hole.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
Depends. Does DQXI does actually come out CY2016, and does so before the NX launches? Or does DQXI launch in FY2016 or tail end of 2016, and the NX is out and has the PS4 version of DQXI... ehh. Moreover, I don't know why you think it will move 200-300k units when the majority of the sales will be on the 3DS. Smash WiiU didn't move 200k-300k units, and that was a holiday launch.

Final Fantasy is a damaged brand.

Well, yeah, that's why I think it won't move as much hardware as XIII did, specifically 50-60k less hardware. Also Dragon Quest XI, regardless of the 3DS version, will sell a lot on the PS4, and it will move a lot of hardware. I'm sure there's many people who by the time Dragon Quest releases would buy a $299 (whatever that is in yen) PS4 to play a console mainline Dragon Quest game, along with other games on the PS4 they may want. Of course this is just my guess mixed with my optimism for the PS4 and i may be completely wrong.
 

Vena

Member
Well, yeah, that's why I think it won't move as much hardware as XIII did, specifically 50-60k less hardware. Also Dragon Quest XI, regardless of the 3DS version, will sell a lot on the PS4, and it will move a lot of hardware. I'm sure there's many people who by the time Dragon Quest releases would buy a $299 (whatever that is in yen) PS4 to play a console mainline Dragon Quest game, along with other games on the PS4 they may want. Of course this is just my guess mixed with my optimism for the PS4 and i may be completely wrong.

Take DQ and PS4, and replace it with Smash and WiiU, and see how that ended up.

The 3DS will galvanize the sales potential immensely. We're talking about a market that clearly doesn't give a crap about pixel count.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I'll make a separate thread soon, but Bravely Archive: D's Report has hit 4 million downloads and had multiplayer dungeons added:

Gematsu said:
Bravely Archive: D’s Report, Square Enix’s January-launched, Japan-only smartphone RPG based on the Bravely series of 3DS games, has surpassed four million downloads, the company announced.

Square Enix introduced a new “Multiplayer Battle” feature to the game on August 24, allowing up to four players take on dungeons and battle together

Read more at http://gematsu.com/2015/08/bravely-archive-ds-report-tops-four-million-downloads#QvRjAE7siAku5d0k.99

The game itself is a pretty modest/lower end performer, but it seems they're still working away at it:


They've also retitled the app to have a Japanese name.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
just no
What does WiiU have this holiday? Mario Maker, TT and Just Dance right?
Last year it sold 620k and it had Smash as a holiday title.

Smash was absolutely nothing, just like Mario Kart.
Splatoon alone can break the 2014 numbers this holidays with a bundle.

That said, i doubt will happen, but >620k is easy.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
Take DQ and PS4, and replace it with Smash and WiiU, and see how that ended up.

The 3DS will galvanize the sales potential immensely. We're talking about a market that clearly doesn't give a crap about pixel count.

Eh, I'd say the Wii U just doesn't have the sales potential that the PS4 has. Also, I think the fact that Smash is a Nintendo game that was out for three months on 3DS before dropping on the Wii U pretty much solidified that it just wasn't going to do extremely well a console that most people interested in would have gotten already, considering the games that had already come out for it, such as Super Mario Bros. U, 3D World, Mario Kart, and all the other great games. I think Dragon Quest XI is just different.
 

AniHawk

Member
splatoon had one hell of a drop. i wonder if nintendo regrets promoting it so heavily.

minecreaft continues to truck on though. i think people expected it to be popular, but not the vita's monster hunter.
 

casiopao

Member
Gonna make more money then any of Sony's published Vita games.

Thats not even surprising lol. Especially when Sony Vita's title have been doing badly here.T_T Of course, the fact that F:GO have been doing well behind the huge Fate fans will make this easy money for Sony.^_^

This may just lead to it having a faster drop-off than normal, then, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, its based off of a very popular series and universe, so it has a lot going for it if it is even a half-decent game.

At first, i also think of that but, recently, it seems the International fans is actually increasing through all this time lol. It seems the fan group in Facebook actually have been promoting this game more than even Aniplex or Type-Moon lol.^_^

Pretty surprised how popular this gotten with its awful launch and how sadistic the gatcha is in this game.

I guess FATE fans though.

The power of "YOROKOBE SHOUNEN" there.^_^
 

Jamix012

Member
Ah yes, just the opportunity to ask this question.

It seems people expect the PS4 to have massive increases with FFXV, which I can see why, but let me pose this question. It seems to be a recent phenomenon, as in basically only with the Wii U, but seemingly the game-buying market has got more Savvy.

The hardware increases with major EXPECTED releases has been...well...lukewarm. Mario 3D World, Smash and Mario Kart 8 all came and went with much smaller changes to hardware sales then most expected, and its generally accepted that this is because everyone who wanted these games bought the system prior to the games releasing. Now...what if we can extend this to Playstation systems? Would it be ridiculous to say that I expect FFXV to sell fairly well, but not really move the needle on the system's hardware sales all the much?
 
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