http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-with-4-days-left-heres-the-state-of-the-race/
So what happens if they take control of the Senate?
So what happens if they take control of the Senate?
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Fivethirtyeight has Republicans at almost 70% chance of taking the Senate.
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Hopefully you do more than post a reply if you think that's not good. Pass it around. I think Dems assume that victory is in the bag. Post this on your Facebook and/or Twitter. Tell people.
People will be surprised the pendulum has shifted. As it always does.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Disappointed, but not surprised.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
That's the problem when one half doesn't agree with the other half.
Well normally everyone is able to work together and compromise, however that hasn't been the case in recent years as you've probably noticed. Short of a democratic majority in both houses of Congress nothing was ever going to get done while Obama is in office.
More gridlock. Seriously. It's not like much is getting past the 60-vote requirement in the Senate, and the House and Senate aren't going to agree on anything huge anyway.
The biggest actual change probably surrounds confirmation of presidential nominees. But at this point, 1/3rd of all federal judges have been nominated by Obama, so that doesn't hurt as much as one would think. The vacancy rate is relatively low at this point since Obama and Reid have prioritized filling-in empty seats.
It also changes the expectations game of the Republican base. They're going to expect legislative results now that their party controls all of Congress. If Congress gets no mileage towards their goals (however unrealistic those goals may be), the base might get upset, which could trickle over into 2016 turnout. If the GOP reps over-reach and threaten to shut-down government if Obama vetoes their pet bill(s), the blowback from the voting public could be very fun to watch. (example: killing Obamacare? Not gonna happen with a bare Senate majority)
It also finally gives Democrats ammunition going into 2016. Get used to hearing "the Republican Congress" from various Dems running for office two years from now. Bill and Hillary have experience in successfully using a Republican Congress as a political scapegoat/foil.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
There's not enough open seats for them to get a veto override.
So the worst is we get a Senate that doesn't get anything done...
In other words we get the exact same thing we have currently.
It doesn't. The US stays with archaic infrastructure, lagging schools, anti-consumer business regulation, third world for-profit health care while people stay obsessed with gaining power for their party or defending their beliefs.
there was really no way Dems would ever win this one... all the losing seats will be in states Obama lost in the last election. couple that with the fact the party that has a big win before is always likely to lose the next election, and democrat voters are generally less likely to vote in midterms.
obama's pretty much a lame duck anyhow (at least legislatively) so I'm really not too up in arms about this. though it will be annoying hearing Fox and radio tout this as some massive victory and how "we're getting our country back"
obama's pretty much a lame duck anyhow (at least legislatively) so I'm really not too up in arms about this. though it will be annoying hearing Fox and radio tout this as some massive victory and how "we're getting our country back"
teruterubozu
Member
More gridlock. Seriously. It's not like much is getting past the 60-vote requirement in the Senate, and the House and Senate aren't going to agree on anything huge anyway.
The biggest actual change probably surrounds confirmation of presidential nominees. But at this point, 1/3rd of all federal judges have been nominated by Obama, so that doesn't hurt as much as one would think. The vacancy rate is relatively low at this point since Obama and Reid have prioritized filling-in empty seats.
It also changes the expectations game of the Republican base. They're going to expect legislative results now that their party controls all of Congress. If Congress gets no mileage towards their goals (however unrealistic those goals may be), the base might get upset, which could trickle over into 2016 turnout. If the GOP reps over-reach and threaten to shut-down government if Obama vetoes their pet bill(s), the blowback from the voting public could be very fun to watch.
It also finally gives Democrats ammunition going into 2016. Get used to hearing "the Republican Congress" from various Dems running for office two years from now. Bill and Hillary have experience in successfully using a Republican Congress as a political scapegoat/foil.
So same shit for another cycle, basically.
I figured more seats were being contested this election, ah well my mistake. Pretty much what you said. Unless of course something happens to Ginsberg, knock on wood, then we're all fucked.
You get what you vote for -- or in this case, don't vote for, because this is all on the apathetic millennials who'd rather bitch about the political system (and how both sides are obviously the same) on Twitter than actually go vote and do something about it. It's no coincidence that the people who get elected are the people that old folks vote for - because old people vote!
What we'll end up getting is two years of gridlock, and if a Republican gets elected in 2016, then I expect a full repeal of the ADA, efforts to ban abortion, and probably a retroactive impeachment attempt on Obama, just because. In other words, America will become a theocratic shithole serving the needs of our 65+ year old, Fox News-watching population over everyone else.
What we'll end up getting is two years of gridlock, and if a Republican gets elected in 2016, then I expect a full repeal of the ADA, efforts to ban abortion, and probably a retroactive impeachment attempt on Obama, just because. In other words, America will become a theocratic shithole serving the needs of our 65+ year old, Fox News-watching population over everyone else.
Reactionary.
"Oh, the party in charge has done a shit job, let's vote the other one in!"
And around and around it goes.
If you're a Democrat, you want the Republicans to win this cycle, as it ensures they don't take the White House in 2016 IMO. Not that chances are high for that anyway...
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
Washington Post at 90%.
Americans have spoken.
Americans have spoken.
Republicans can't win the presidency.
teruterubozu
Member
It doesn't matter cuz Hillary will make Obama look like a full-blown liberal. We're fucked either way.
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
"Dude there's an election this year?"
This happens during every midterm. Whoever is the current president party suffers during midterms. Happened in 2002, 2006, 2010 and it will happen again in 2014. I think I rememebered seeing a statistic that it hasn't happened a total of 3 times since 1850. The only thing that changed though is the gridlock and no compromise congress.
exmachina64
Banned
Though I've wondered what his presidency would have been like if he hadn't tackled healthcare reform. Of course, the Republicans would have found something else to attack.
At least Obama laid the groundwork for an expansion to a single-payer system later. You have to get these people comfortable with small steps.
How do you know this?
People are more comfortable with a female president than they were in 2008 and she's likely to face less opposition.
If I remember correctly, Obama had a majority in both houses (including a super majority in the Senate) during his first two years in office, and he still had trouble getting things done.
speculawyer
Member
Well, we'll just have to see what happens on Tuesday.
If they win, this may backfire on them big time. They won't be able to actually do anything. So they'll just pass a bunch of the standard crazy stuff like flag-burning, anti-abortion, and perhaps looney ebola legislation. By the time 2016 rolls around and the wider electorate looks at the nonsense they did, Hillary will barely even have to campaign.
If they win, this may backfire on them big time. They won't be able to actually do anything. So they'll just pass a bunch of the standard crazy stuff like flag-burning, anti-abortion, and perhaps looney ebola legislation. By the time 2016 rolls around and the wider electorate looks at the nonsense they did, Hillary will barely even have to campaign.
That was because of conservative Democrats right?
I thought it was because Republicans could just filibuster anything, basically giving them a veto.
speculawyer
Member
You never know. She might be able get more passed because she lived in Arkansas and she's white. Too many of the loons seemed quite determined to vote "no" on anything President Blackenstein wanted . . . even things they previously supported.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
Thunder Monkey
Banned
They might have had 60 votes in the Senate, but a supermajority with around eight senators from deep red states is like barely having a majority. They aren't going to do anything for fear of being called a liberal.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jennifer-m-granholm/debunking-the-myth-obamas_b_1929869.html
Obama barely ever had an actual supermajority.
Without the supermajority the Republicans were able to obstruct obstruct obstruct because they're just assholes.
I think during the first two years the Democrats had 60 or more Senators, which pretty much meant that republicans on their own could do fuck-all about anything. I remember a big deal was made when Scott Brown got elected because he was the 41st republican Senator, and lots of people thought it would be the death of the ACA at the time.
Mr.Awesome
Banned
Neogaf is going to cry bitter, bitter tears.
LilWayneSuckz
Member
I'm voting democrat on Tuesday, and I expect my candidate to win. But even if republicans do take over the senate I just know that even less will get done.
At this point the House and the Senate are a daycare where taxpayers pay people to get nothing done.
Obama will be blamed for reasons, Ebola and ISIS will be brought up as well.
I've seen what happens when people don't vote and I've been voting in every election since 18, I have the right to at the very least complain if I disagree with local, state and federal government decisions that result when someone who I didn't vote for assumes power.
At this point the House and the Senate are a daycare where taxpayers pay people to get nothing done.
Obama will be blamed for reasons, Ebola and ISIS will be brought up as well.
I've seen what happens when people don't vote and I've been voting in every election since 18, I have the right to at the very least complain if I disagree with local, state and federal government decisions that result when someone who I didn't vote for assumes power.
Oh, I'm sure that's the case. I was just talking from a pure numbers standpoint.
titiklabingapat
Member
It's not going to change much. The geography just isn't in the Democrat's favor this year. It's not really about what the country's mood is, etc. See the reverse happen in 2016, when Democrats have two advantages: 1) it's a presidential election 2) Democrats are on the offensive when it comes to states that are in play.
Karsticles
Member
Why are so many people swinging to the right this election?
The people that vote left tend to not vote for local elections.
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