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Fivethirtyeight has Republicans at almost 70% chance of taking the Senate.
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speculawyer
Member
Many of the Senate seats up for grabs are in Red states.
For some reason, people don't seem to like it when the stock market is at record highs, gas prices are low, the deficit has been cut in half, unemployment has dropped below 6%, interest rates are low . . . go figure.
titiklabingapat
Member
It's not so much a swing as it is a correction. The Senate Dems won in a lot of conservative states back in 2008 riding on the coattails of Obama. Those states are in play again this year so Dems are on the defensive in states they do not normally win in.
The fact that many Democrats are still complaining that Obama "didn't do enough" isn't really helping the message.
milquetoast
Banned
I guess the people want something different. Well those numbers are terrible for democrats. Any chance of Nancy Pelosi getting the axe?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Democrats will hold onto a slim majority. Specifically a 50-50 tie that gets broken by Biden.
Democrats are only in trouble in the Senate elections because so many of them are red states they won in 08. Mark Pryor (Arkansas) didn't even have a Republican running against him in 08, now he's one of the most endangered incumbents.
Ha, Pelosi is in for life. Her district is 90% Dem or something ridiculous. If you mean as minority leader... well maybe but Democrats like her enough that they won't give her the boot.milquetoast said:
Democrats are only in trouble in the Senate elections because so many of them are red states they won in 08. Mark Pryor (Arkansas) didn't even have a Republican running against him in 08, now he's one of the most endangered incumbents.
milquetoast
Banned
Yeah I think so too. It's going to be a pretty boring end to Obama's presidency.
Absolutely nothing will get done.
milquetoast
Banned
Hilary is a shoo-in, right? Fait Accompli according to many.
TheExecutive
Member
That's the problem when dichotomies exist and are fostered by those in power to ensure they stay in power. Don't get me started on how it ensures corporate policies propagate much easier...
If this turns out to be true the only reason domestically Obama stays in office is to ensure ACA stays largely intact. His only refuge is foreign policy.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Reps got it good right now though. All they need to do is vote to repeal obamacare and the base will be happy.
You wanna talk about an easy job.
You wanna talk about an easy job.
Aaron Strife
Banned
TheExecutive
Member
And all of this somehow has to do with the party in power in the senate and house. The nitwits in both parties have nothing to do with the economy. They can't even keep the government open let alone make policy about the free market.
speculawyer
Member
They can't do anything. They've like sworn a blood oath against compromise and pragmatism. And they can't pass things over a veto without 2/3s vote . . . not gonna happen.
Just more gridlock but with stupid symbolic bills passed in both senate and house instead of just House.
WonkyPanda
Member
If you're out there RBG, please retire.
Shao Kahn on the Lawn
Member
None of that matters when the media continues to say that the economy is in trouble and employers have cut staffing levels to the bone.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
They will have to defend a lot of seats they won in 2010 in 2016 so they could very well lose the Senate again but gain the Presidency.
It was the most productive Congress since the 60s. I believe the current Congress is the least productive in history.
airmangataosenai
Member
This was an inevitable outcome of the gains from the 2008 election, Democrats won in a ton of places they normally wouldn't compete in before Obama so a return to "Normal" was bound to happen. 2016 is going to be brutal for the Republicans however, I could see them losing a minimum of 5 seats.
milquetoast
Banned
UnforgivenTwin
Member
Even if the republicans take the senate, I don't see most of their bills passing since a democrat still controls the white house. Ughh just an endless cycle of back and forth.
Dems will take that back over in 2020/2022 when the new census is done.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think they could win the House in 2016 if Hillary runs strong enough, but it probably wouldn't last more than two years.
The last time Democrats flipped the House (2006) they were running in maps that had been gerrymandered in 2000, although those gerrymanders weren't as extreme as today's.
This is the most likely case. Even with the seat gains I doubt the Republican party has enough votes to directly override presidental vetos: and even if they do there are always pocket vetos (albeit not always possible since it requires congress to go out of session).
Even with the shifts in population towards the Southern states?
Or will it just be a non-factor by that point.
Not to worry. The Electoral College is insanely tilted in favor of whomever the Democrats nominate. The GOP would have to run the table on swing states near perfectly - and their candidate would barely get past 269EVs.
Gaining control of a chamber that wasn't going to pass much anyway over the next two years is a consolation prize for the GOP. It's like winning Advil when you come in second place on Jeopardy.
I blame California for having so many goddamn votes.
Putting the reality of things to one side for the moment... how is that mathematically possible?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
But if there's a big enough wave it's enough to swing most of those states over.
One would hope. Our biggest problem isn't so much the Republicans as a whole, it's the fucking idiots who have managed to get injected into the party via Koch money, southern baptist, and people who just plain hate America progressing. The loud minority continues the party further and further into crazy town and irrelevance on any important issue.
Oscillation of Political Evil, coming soon to a Government near you.
UnforgivenTwin
Member
The religious right....eww
Low information voters as well as apathetic voters is a lethal combination in the current political environment.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The greatest thing either party ever did was lock people into a choice between the two. Basically just ensured they play musical chairs with power.
Fenderputty
Banned
Even though it's been expected, it's still depressing.
I'm trying to think of something that would trigger such a wave. Deep recession/depression? Clinton being caught in bed with a goat?
What's really going to dagger their party is when a Dem gets to replace a right-leaning SCOTUS justice or two. It'd be the death blow for the social conservative movement, at least for a generation. Any bullshit they pass on the state or federal level would be challenged in court, and the federal judiciary would knock it down.
And that (besides a few outliers) both parties are largely Centerist or Center-Right in terms of social/fiscal policies on the Federal stage.
Two party federal governments sure do suck.
There will be a ceiling to how proactive the judiciary can be in dictating national policy, though. Eventually you'll see huge pushback from Congress, rallying their constituents to shift the power away from the judiciary anyway they can
The group known as PUMA or Party Unity My Ass. Anti-Obama Dems who backed Hillary and didn't think Obama was "qualified".
and good ol Joe Lieberman.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Never underestimate how fickle people are. Recall in 1992 all it took was 3 successive terms of the same party and a modest economic downturn that had already begun recovering to basically sweep Clinton into office.
Carnby
Member
This is glorious.
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