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World of Warcraft at 5.6 million subs (was 7.1M, 10M), Diablo 3 has sold 30+M copies
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
-bakalhau-
Member
I, of course, agree with everything you said. I just don't think it:
a) will get to around 9M post-launch of the next expansion pack. The way I see it, less subscribers before launch can translate into lesser sales of that expansion pack, ie, it might be seen as a decrease in general interest in the game by the public. But, I do agree it's gonna see a sizeable spike.
b) I just think numbers will drop as fast in the next expansion after launch as in this one.
But I do generally agree with your points.
SDCowboy
Member
If there is a new class, and it doesn't start at like lvl 100 or something, I think that would go a long way to keeping returning players.
Also, I think they need to bring back the dungeon tokens. Right now, after you've run whatever raid content you're able to for the week, what's left as far as PVE to get gear for the average player? There should be an option to grind for tokens in heroics to at least get a low lower ilevel version of raid gear. IMO, heroic dungeons became worthless far too quickly in WoD.
Not Spaceghost
Spaceghost
The way ICC handled this was the best because you just pugged normal mode for the 251 via tokens, then upgraded them when you could kill end wing bosses and upgraded them again in heroic mode.
Farming badges is way more conducive to keeping players feeling like they have something to do instead of logging on on tuesday to run LFR and then call a solid portion of your "solo" weekly progression over.
SDCowboy
Member
Exactly. Right now its basically, log in Tuesday (or whatever day you can), run the raid content you can, take six days off or level alts. The badge grind always gave players something to do.
Hmm why not just run mythic dungeons.
I think an issue with the common topic of vanilla/TBC WoW's greatness being refuted as nostalgiagoggles is that you're focusing way too much on the pure mechanical part and not seeing the larger picture. The point is that the distinct lack of many of the convenient QoL systems compared to how this has changed, is that in many cases this absence served to facilitate social interaction. The players would figure out their own solutions and ultimately construct their own culture and community (not to mention economy) around this. And in the end, it's the players themselves that make massive multiplayer games a unique experience compared to single player RPGs or conventional multiplayer games.
Some problems were going to show up regardless though, like the active playerbase inevitably getting massively concentrated around max level, which empties the lower level content making it hard for leveling players to find groups. But there's probably better methods out there to handle issues like that. Cross-realm zones and timewalking are some features already implemented that can help mitgate such a thing. There just generally needs to be outlets for meaningful interaction between players regardless of what level they are. I pretty much view things like zones exclusively meant for leveling and old dungeons/raids becoming irrelevant with each new expansion (or even tier) as fundamental design flaws that need to be tackled.
Some problems were going to show up regardless though, like the active playerbase inevitably getting massively concentrated around max level, which empties the lower level content making it hard for leveling players to find groups. But there's probably better methods out there to handle issues like that. Cross-realm zones and timewalking are some features already implemented that can help mitgate such a thing. There just generally needs to be outlets for meaningful interaction between players regardless of what level they are. I pretty much view things like zones exclusively meant for leveling and old dungeons/raids becoming irrelevant with each new expansion (or even tier) as fundamental design flaws that need to be tackled.
fluffydelusions
Member
-bakalhau-
Member
I think it's all down to players feeling burned out. I see them dropping no matter what. I know WoW still has everything I truly cherished back in the day. The levelling, the exploration, the music, the raids and group play, dungeons, the financial play, and just the wonderful feeling of exploring a world. It's all there still, as good as it ever was. But I'm burned out. I played it so much it can no longer provide a new or satisfactory experience. I think many players feel this way. It's a very old game. At its core, it still is an old game. The graphics are wonderful but outdated, too. I think millions of players feel burned out and many more will in the future. It just sucks up your time. When you truly love it, and pay for 1 or 2 years straight of subs, you play it for hundreds or thousands of hours. The very best compliment to WoW, which is the fact that millions of players, each one of them, have put thousands upon thousands of hours into the game for 10 years, is starting to be its demise - in terms of subs' numbers.
SDCowboy
Member
Give us a mythic queue, and okay. Grinds aren't fun if you have to seek out groups each time.
Sounds like Arrogant Bastard's (GAFer) paradox.
Wanting less social interaction for higher tier difficulty even though said difficulty involves corresponding increases in social / coordination aspect.
SDCowboy
Member
I get the social interaction when I'm in the dungeon/raid. I'm not one of those pug'ers that doesn't talk. lol For content like dungeon grinds, I want to just queue up and hop in.
Blackage
Member
The reason it jumped to 10 million subs at the start is because people were excited about WoW again after the Panda expo. I personally loved Mists, I thought the story was great, the locations were great, and there was a bunch of fun things to do. For alot of people though it was like "Hurr, durr, pandas, we kung fu panda jack black, derp!" and couldn't get past the fact that it was an expo that focused on the origins of an entirely new race which started as an April Fool's joke.
So when you saw that trailer with the Iron Horde, The Dark Portal, Grom Hellscream, Mannoroth, the Legion, Gul'dan, it was like "Oh shit, Warcraft is back!" and the leveling experience for WoD was great(Outside of the server issues @ the start), but the end game was without a doubt the worst endgame for any WoW expansion ever and that's why they lost 4.4 million subs.
The first raid was locked for 2 weeks, so the only means of min/max gearing was to run the challenge modes, which were cancer for pugs. In addiiton there were no daily quest hubs whatsoever, I know people bitched about this in Mists, but that had to do with the daily quests locking gear required for raiding behind rep which took a very long time to unlock. In MoP, there was NOTHING, there was your garrison and dungeons with 1 daily assault for Appix Crystals which were for the most part awful/worthless. When Highmaul finally opened that was it, 7 bosses, 1 raid. Terrible. Compare this to BC with Kara/Grull/Magtheridon, then The Eye/Serpentshrine(Which were available behind many attunements). Hell even compare it to MoP, which was time released raids as well, you still got 3 different raids for 3 different locations in the first patch. With WoD you got 1 raid, then another raid that was already ready but time locked for like 3 months for no reason but people consuming what little content Blizzard provided.
If you pvp'd it wasn't much better. No new Battlegrounds/arenas, and you were given Ashran which was sort of awful. PvP has always sort of lacked a real end-game/goal but I think most of them were happy enough to compete in arenas for that #1 spot. Blizzard kinda shoved Ashran down your throat whether you liked it or not, and then also required you to participate in Rated BGs as well I believe. The pruning of abilities and lowering of the skill cap didn't really help the pvp situation either. Easily the worst and least exciting reason to keep playing if you enjoyed pvp ever.
So I'm not at all surprised by the sub drop, Blizzard put bare bones effort into this expansion and it shows.
So when you saw that trailer with the Iron Horde, The Dark Portal, Grom Hellscream, Mannoroth, the Legion, Gul'dan, it was like "Oh shit, Warcraft is back!" and the leveling experience for WoD was great(Outside of the server issues @ the start), but the end game was without a doubt the worst endgame for any WoW expansion ever and that's why they lost 4.4 million subs.
The first raid was locked for 2 weeks, so the only means of min/max gearing was to run the challenge modes, which were cancer for pugs. In addiiton there were no daily quest hubs whatsoever, I know people bitched about this in Mists, but that had to do with the daily quests locking gear required for raiding behind rep which took a very long time to unlock. In MoP, there was NOTHING, there was your garrison and dungeons with 1 daily assault for Appix Crystals which were for the most part awful/worthless. When Highmaul finally opened that was it, 7 bosses, 1 raid. Terrible. Compare this to BC with Kara/Grull/Magtheridon, then The Eye/Serpentshrine(Which were available behind many attunements). Hell even compare it to MoP, which was time released raids as well, you still got 3 different raids for 3 different locations in the first patch. With WoD you got 1 raid, then another raid that was already ready but time locked for like 3 months for no reason but people consuming what little content Blizzard provided.
If you pvp'd it wasn't much better. No new Battlegrounds/arenas, and you were given Ashran which was sort of awful. PvP has always sort of lacked a real end-game/goal but I think most of them were happy enough to compete in arenas for that #1 spot. Blizzard kinda shoved Ashran down your throat whether you liked it or not, and then also required you to participate in Rated BGs as well I believe. The pruning of abilities and lowering of the skill cap didn't really help the pvp situation either. Easily the worst and least exciting reason to keep playing if you enjoyed pvp ever.
So I'm not at all surprised by the sub drop, Blizzard put bare bones effort into this expansion and it shows.
Absolutely this. Blizzard has torn out the heart of the game, which was the grouping and social aspect. Yes, there's bad in that aspect, but there is good too, and the players are what makes MMOs so memorable.
I really wish Blizz took the console version of D3 more seriously the game is full of cheaters, like downright disgusting. It pretty much forces you to play solo when you have no friends online.
Just popped in the game joined a public game the 3 dudes with paragon level 10k and with hacked gear up their tits.
Just popped in the game joined a public game the 3 dudes with paragon level 10k and with hacked gear up their tits.
MadScientist
Banned
Oof.
Going by that graph WoW subscriptions seem on a pretty predictable trajectory. Though I suspect there is a hardcore group of players that will stick to the game no matter what, slowing the decrease.
However I believe in a switch to a F2P model within the next two years, maybe even quite soon. That move would bring in a lot of new players who will mix up the aging community.
MadScientist
Banned
I like the fact that D3 can be played offline on consoles, but I don't understand why they can't use their servers to store character and item data like they do on PC.
AnathemicOne
Banned
Battle.Net is not on consoles, therefore Blizzard can't control shit
Shadowhaxor
Member
Sure it sold 30 million copies, but how many has WoW sold? Plus WoW generates monthly income for them, where Diablo 3 doesn't. Despite the game losing subs, that's still 5m x 14.99 x 1 month.
Not knocking D3, I love D3 and wish there was a new xpac coming. Blizz knows they done fucked up and this is the result. They want to try and stop the bleeding.
I am the Law
Banned
Ah WotLK.. such fond memories. After that, not so much..
Eighty Deuce
Banned
Warcraft 4 should let you import your WoW character in as a hero unit and phase him into your own private storyline. Then the next WoW expansion should pickup afterwards and narrate like WoTLk like your the main character of the expansion. Also blizzard should hire me because I love Warcraft and don't want it to die off.
arts&crafts
Member
At one point a few weeks ago I was thinking of coming back for nostalgia sake. Then yesterday I got an email saying I had 10 character transfers and they put my account on hold. I havent logged into battle.net for a year! oh well
Contact support; they're pretty good about restoring hacked accounts.
lifeexpectancy
Member
WoW really, really needs to die anyway. Someone tell them that horse has had its run. Time to put it out to pasture, let the remaining playerbase get the enjoyment they can from it, and let their numbers slowly ebb away like the dying embers of a long-stoked fire.
Then in a few years when it's down to 1 million subs or less, announce WoW 2
and start the whole thing over.
Then in a few years when it's down to 1 million subs or less, announce WoW 2
F2P
I am curious how the PvP demographic would figure into the sub loss since all this talk is always focused on the PvE side. "Content drought" does not figure in so heavily into PvP content, but everyone knows it's in a particularly bad place right now with the design failure that is Ashran and the faction imbalance reaching a tipping point. When I started playing again around April/May after a break since January, the fairly large PvP guild I was in was literallly empty.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
I wonder if Blizzard ever thought of bringing WoW to consoles (PS4/XB1). I mean, I was a dps and in PvE, you hardly press more than 4 or 5 buttons ^^
StrangeTaco
Member
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
No wonder that Activision are pimping Destiny so hard.
Looks like the WoW rate of decline since 2011 has been pretty consistent, guessing the spikes in interest are expansions?
Gotta replace those revenues somehow or the shareholders will not be happy...
Looks like the WoW rate of decline since 2011 has been pretty consistent, guessing the spikes in interest are expansions?
Gotta replace those revenues somehow or the shareholders will not be happy...
You go on to defend pandas but you say they "started" as an april fools joke? No. Just because they were involved in one doesn't mean it started that way. They have been around since Warcraft 3 early development. A part of the lore for a long time.
fluffydelusions
Member
Console version isn't going to happen. Vanilla would be cool though and it seems a lot of people want it.
Vincent Grayson
Member
If by "a lot" you mean some random people online, sure. There's definitely no large demand in the real world for playing WoW circa 2004.
TatteredHat
Member
Vanilla is also not going to happen.
By your logic they would be pimping Skylanders harder lol.
StrangeTaco
Member
Vanilla - Would split the community and not enough demand
Console - Probably not nearly enough demand compared to PC, also dat install size would be crazy.
Why would you want to play Vanilla? I remember Vanilla, it wasn't fun, it was a job.
Three subpar xpacs in a row is really taking its toll on the sub count. The huge spikes at the xpac launches show, to me at least, that the decline isn't due to genre fatigue and if Blizzard takes the next one seriously and produces a Burning Crusade or Wrath of the Lich King quality game they will be able to turn around the decline.
Some people really enjoy being able to commit the majority of their free time to game and see constant, slow, progression. Vanilla also had really cool world events.
Some people really enjoy being able to commit the majority of their free time to game and see constant, slow, progression. Vanilla also had really cool world events.
Caipirinha
Member
I played WoW for periods of 3-6 months at 3 times during it's history.
At launch until before TBC, again just prior WotLK until just prior to ICC, and then again this time around from about 6 months pre-WoD to just prior to BRF.
The sweet spot for me is the same as for many others, WotLK. It had the perfect balance of the freshness of the game and the improvements in gameplay.
By now the game has completely lost any freshness and the sense of wonder and awe is gone entirely, so even though I think that WoD had been a great expansion up until I gave up on it for life reasons, I don't think any expansion can really recapture what made WoW a phenomenon and that's what brought the masses.
I don't want to see Blizzard put the Warcraft universe to one side, I would rather just crack on with WoW 2 as the next major entry with a significant change in location and major characters. The key should be capturing that feel of "holy shit I'm in this huge world, I don't really know what lies ahead, nobody really does" rather than immediately rushing into end game content and reducing everything to min maxing.
The latter is not an adventure and an MMO should be an adventure.
The mystery of the World of Warcraft is gone now basically.
At launch until before TBC, again just prior WotLK until just prior to ICC, and then again this time around from about 6 months pre-WoD to just prior to BRF.
The sweet spot for me is the same as for many others, WotLK. It had the perfect balance of the freshness of the game and the improvements in gameplay.
By now the game has completely lost any freshness and the sense of wonder and awe is gone entirely, so even though I think that WoD had been a great expansion up until I gave up on it for life reasons, I don't think any expansion can really recapture what made WoW a phenomenon and that's what brought the masses.
I don't want to see Blizzard put the Warcraft universe to one side, I would rather just crack on with WoW 2 as the next major entry with a significant change in location and major characters. The key should be capturing that feel of "holy shit I'm in this huge world, I don't really know what lies ahead, nobody really does" rather than immediately rushing into end game content and reducing everything to min maxing.
The latter is not an adventure and an MMO should be an adventure.
The mystery of the World of Warcraft is gone now basically.
Interfectum
Member
They want the sense of discovery they had back in 2004. Removing current WoW's quality of life changes isn't going to bring that back. Barely anyone would make it past the free month.
It's kinda like drugs, you're never getting that 1st time high ever again.
Surprised at the sharp drop since November, I quit before this last xpac came out, so not sure if people are now in the play it for 3-6 months and cancel until next xpac or if there is overall dissatisfaction with the game itself or if its starting to die out. I guess well see with this next xpac.
Also, that graph backs up my feelings the game itself peaked at WotLK..
Also, that graph backs up my feelings the game itself peaked at WotLK..
Bootador83
Member
Install size can't be that much surely? Was 35gb or something on my PC years ago. I'd play a console port tbh.