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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Boke1879 said:
I know the amazon hourly's are representative of ANYTHING. BUT the Battlefront game and SW PS4 bundles are start the climb into the top 20. Not to mention the COD bundle and UCC bundle is still doing very well.

It's going to be fun to see amazon update for the month and where everything lands.
Click to expand...
If Amazon is reflective of general market trends, I think it is interesting that Battlefront may take a supplementary role to CoD instead of the opposite. I figured it would be the other way around but CoD may be pushing more hardware than anything else. Of course, Battlefront will get another boost come next Tuesday and the movie in December should provide a boost. So, we'll have to keep an eye on how things go.

Either way, CoD and Battlefront is one heck of a combo for Sony that should extend into early next year as well.
 
C

Cow Goes Moo

Member
i also predict a lot of "dragon quest heroes bombed", "it wasn't even a real dragon quest game, it was a musou", "welp, no more dragon quest for the west" tomorrow
maybe the same for disgaea too
or things of that nature

"we won't ever get another localized dragon quest game unless nintendo steps in"- jeremy1456
 
O

orochi91

Member
Cow Goes Moo said:
i also predict a lot of "dragon quest heroes bombed", "it wasn't even a real dragon quest game, it was a musou", "welp, no more dragon quest for the west" tomorrow
maybe the same for disgaea too
or things of that nature
Click to expand...

Those are all valid points though.

First big-budget DQ game on consoles being released in the West after so many years...

I'm super happy that it sold ~1000K in Japan/Asia, so hopefully it will eek out another 500K - 1000K throughout the rest of the world.
 
C

Cow Goes Moo

Member
orochi91 said:
Those are all valid points though.

First big-budget DQ game on consoles being released in the West after so many years...

I'm super happy that it sold ~1000K in Japan/Asia, so hopefully it will eek out another 500K - 1000K throughout the rest of the world.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with it, i just expect to see it

and i really doubt it was a significantly budgeted game, especially if omega force worked on it.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Guys. I truly wonder how big Battlefront can be. Just had a friend come up to me she says. "As someone who knows nothing, PS4 or Xbox? I'm asking only because I want to play Battlefront."

Naturally I tell her about the PS4 bundle launching next week. Then I tell her that if she waits she can try to brave Black Friday and get a PS4 for $299. She said nope I'd rather not get trampled and she said the bundle is perfect.

I mean if it can get people who don't even game on consoles to buy it...
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Boke1879 said:
Guys. I truly wonder how big Battlefront can be. Just had a friend come up to me she says. "As someone who knows nothing, PS4 or Xbox? I'm asking only because I want to play Battlefront."

Naturally I tell her about the PS4 bundle launching next week. Then I tell her that if she waits she can try to brave Black Friday and get a PS4 for $299. She said nope I'd rather not get trampled and she said the bundle is perfect.

I mean if it can get people who don't even game on consoles to buy it...
Click to expand...

Hey I said the other day by anecdotal evidence this Halloween, judging the the many Star Wars costumes I saw....adults and kids....I think its gonna be huge.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Bgamer90 said:
As I said in a previous post a few weeks back, people who use Amazon so much should have factored in the Halo bundle doing better than the actual Xbox bundles that counted in August. Seems like many people just skimped over the fact.

I'm expecting "Amazon failed" type of posts if the Xbox One takes October; Not that it's a great source anyway but if you are going to use Amazon as a source to that level then you might as well use it to the fullest instead of just focusing on the October chart (e.g.: compare Halo bundle position in August/September with other Xbox bundles and try to get a good range based on what the Xbox One did for NPD during both months).
Click to expand...

Here is how I see Amazon October Charts if I include Halo Pre-orders:

#15 XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#19 PS4 Uncharted Bundle
#49 PS4 TLOU Bundle
#59 PS4 Destiny Bunle
#77 XB1 GOW Bundle

Even if that were the case we have a similar result like in April 2015 that even if XB1 is ahead 3 PS4 bundle below it can easily make up for a PS4 win. Don't you think?
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Boke1879 said:
Guys. I truly wonder how big Battlefront can be. Just had a friend come up to me she says. "As someone who knows nothing, PS4 or Xbox? I'm asking only because I want to play Battlefront."

Naturally I tell her about the PS4 bundle launching next week. Then I tell her that if she waits she can try to brave Black Friday and get a PS4 for $299. She said nope I'd rather not get trampled and she said the bundle is perfect.

I mean if it can get people who don't even game on consoles to buy it...
Click to expand...

It's going to be a madhouse.

Those fucking Darth Vader PS4s... fuck my life.

When I read the thread on here with people shitting all over the design, I was laughing! Laughing! GAF is so insular, has no real sense of what the mass trends are sometimes.

Ah, lord.

I look at next week. And then, I look at our Black Friday ad, and I think to myself, "I think Sony is being a little considerate, by not making a special offer for the Star Wars bundles for Black Friday." Because if they did that, it would just be fucking ridiculous. We're already going to sell a ton of systems, but if they did that, with the Star Wars ones, it'd just be too much.

So. Yeah. Of course they could spring something on us in the week leading up to that and make me wither a little... I mean, our NH stores are already opening 5pm on Thanksgiving day. (My home store is near the MA border, one of the reasons we are so busy, yay sales tax evasion).

Someone was asking about splits on Fallout I think? PS4 had a lead in the districts I checked, but it wasn't some massive number. Close breakdown. I'll be curious to see how it pans out across November.

And to those curious. We've now had Halo, CoD and Fallout launch. Halo has basically become a trickle. CoD seemingly vaporized what momentum we were seeing for that, especially with how positive the reception BOIII is having. Even my employees are gushing about it. Fallout and BOIII are basically operating independently of each other, still both selling very well without weakening each other's impact. The positive reviews for Tomb Raider don't seem to have done much, no fanfare. Is MS even trumpeting its own 'exclusive' having a great reception? Meh.

Is it New Years yet?
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Abdiel said:
It's going to be a madhouse.

Those fucking Darth Vader PS4s... fuck my life.

When I read the thread on here with people shitting all over the design, I was laughing! Laughing! GAF is so insular, has no real sense of what the mass trends are sometimes.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone here said it wouldn't do well when it was revealed. It's just a bad design though (IMO). Not a fan of the comic book/cartoon look of Darth Vader on the console. Thought they would do something similar to the white Destiny PS4 ("stormtrooper white").

________________

Sangetsu-II said:
Here is how I see Amazon October Charts if I include Halo Pre-orders:

#15 XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#19 PS4 Uncharted Bundle
#49 PS4 TLOU Bundle
#59 PS4 Destiny Bunle
#77 XB1 GOW Bundle

Even if that were the case we have a similar result like in April 2015 that even if XB1 is ahead 3 PS4 bundle below it can easily make up for a PS4 win. Don't you think?
Click to expand...

No clue. Depends on how much "15" is above "19" in that case.
 
B

Bear Force One

Banned
Wish we had some Gamestop impressions, but between Amazon and the Best Buy impressions, its not that hard to see a PS4 win. Giant gap? No. But an October Surprise seems likely.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Abdiel said:
"I think Sony is being a little considerate, by not making a special offer for the Star Wars bundles for Black Friday." Because if they did that, it would just be fucking ridiculous. We're already going to sell a ton of systems, but if they did that, with the Star Wars ones, it'd just be too much.
Click to expand...

Not to wish bad faith on you Abdiel but I wish this would happen, would make me buy a 3rd PS4 :p

$299 PS4 with 5 games mmmm so good.
 
P

Purest 78

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I don't think anyone here said it wouldn't do well when it was revealed. It's just a bad design though (IMO). Not a fan of the comic book/cartoon look of Darth Vader on the console. Thought they would do something similar to the white Destiny PS4 ("stormtrooper white").

________________



No clue. Depends on how much "15" is above "19" in that case.
Click to expand...

I personally like the look Black Ps4 with Darth Vader. I prefer it to all multi-colored Tacky consoles.
 
G

GKFinns

Member
My only prediction is that I doubt Uncharted Nathan Drake Collection will chart. Not because it didn't sell well, but because the majority of its sales came from the bundles, and those won't be counted.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
Loudninja said:
I wonder how many of those systems are they getting?
Click to expand...

I will assume pallet loads. I was in Best Buy last night, and they had 2 pallets in the gaming section. One completely full of Uncharted Bundles, one completely full of Tomb Raider Bundles. No, my friends, I didn't count to see which had sold more, lol.



I will assume that it will be the same with the Star Wars Bundles. Probably a pallet of each or something.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
Bgamer90 said:
It's definitely a far better design than the Black Ops 3 PS4.
Click to expand...

Yeah, not a fan of the COD Console Design. But the controller is really growing on me. I was looking at it at Best Buy, the sell it seperately, and if it didn't have that little roman numeral 3 on it, I would probably pick one up. But I am going for the Gray Playstation Anniversary controller instead. The PS Button alone on the anniversary controller is nostalgic.
21605586346_be6c342b89_o.jpg
Click to expand...
 
T

Tubie

Member
We're almost there guys.

We've come a long way
(60+ pages for a prediction thread holy shit!)
, but October NPD is almost here and I think we can all agree, no matter what the results are, the thread will be
interesting.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Abdiel said:
*snip*
Click to expand...
Hang in there, Abdiel, you can do it. We always value your insight here on GAF. I'm looking forward to hear your insight on how well the Battlefront bundles will sell. Also, if you don't mind, approximately how much stock is there for the limited edition Battlefront bundle? Any chance you think it will run out soon or can it keep up with demand throughout Black Friday?
 
L

Loudninja

Member
3rdamention said:
I will assume pallet loads. I was in Best Buy last night, and they had 2 pallets in the gaming section. One completely full of Uncharted Bundles, one completely full of Tomb Raider Bundles. No, my friends, I didn't count to see which had sold more, lol.



I will assume that it will be the same with the Star Wars Bundles. Probably a pallet of each or something.
Click to expand...
Yeah I have to assume as much considering what they are expecting
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Abdiel said:
It's going to be a madhouse.

Those fucking Darth Vader PS4s... fuck my life.

When I read the thread on here with people shitting all over the design, I was laughing! Laughing! GAF is so insular, has no real sense of what the mass trends are sometimes.

Ah, lord.

I look at next week. And then, I look at our Black Friday ad, and I think to myself, "I think Sony is being a little considerate, by not making a special offer for the Star Wars bundles for Black Friday." Because if they did that, it would just be fucking ridiculous. We're already going to sell a ton of systems, but if they did that, with the Star Wars ones, it'd just be too much.

So. Yeah. Of course they could spring something on us in the week leading up to that and make me wither a little... I mean, our NH stores are already opening 5pm on Thanksgiving day. (My home store is near the MA border, one of the reasons we are so busy, yay sales tax evasion).

Someone was asking about splits on Fallout I think? PS4 had a lead in the districts I checked, but it wasn't some massive number. Close breakdown. I'll be curious to see how it pans out across November.

And to those curious. We've now had Halo, CoD and Fallout launch. Halo has basically become a trickle. CoD seemingly vaporized what momentum we were seeing for that, especially with how positive the reception BOIII is having. Even my employees are gushing about it. Fallout and BOIII are basically operating independently of each other, still both selling very well without weakening each other's impact. The positive reviews for Tomb Raider don't seem to have done much, no fanfare. Is MS even trumpeting its own 'exclusive' having a great reception? Meh.

Is it New Years yet?
Click to expand...

As always. Thank you for your insight. God speed to you and I'll think of you during this rush.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
Nice! A historic prediction thread for what will almost surely be a historic NPD results thread!

This may be the last truly interesting month for a while. Maybe the rest of the gen.
Click to expand...

Hell no.

November will be at least if not more epic.

Though this is a good one. I'm just saying it is far far far far from the last good one.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Obliterator said:
Hell no.

November will be at least if not more epic.

Though this is a good one. I'm just saying it is far far far far from the last good one.
Click to expand...
Ehhh, in terms of hardware, I don't see it. The software will be interesting but the hardware is what really gets things interesting and with the CoD and Battlefront deals, I don't see it being nearly as interesting as October.
 
B

Blackleg-sanji1

Banned
I still can't get over the fact that who is winning these next few months is in question. I mean i don't even own an xbox and i for sure thought xbox would be taking oct&nov indefinitely. Now? You got sony dropping the price,halo not doing as well as its predecessors,cod&star wars marketing. If you would've said like 4,5 months ago sony might take the holiday i don't think any body would believe you.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
The Vader PS4 is one of the best design I ever see in a console.

Sad I live in Brazil and import a second PS4 is almost impossible with dollar being 4x our currency.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Blackleg-sanji1 said:
I still can't get over the fact that who is winning these next few months is in question. I mean i don't even own an xbox and i for sure thought xbox would be taking oct&nov indefinitely. Now? You got sony dropping the price,halo not doing as well as its predecessors,cod&star wars marketing. If you would've said like 4,5 months ago sony might take the holiday i don't think any body would believe you.
Click to expand...

Only reason I thought Microsoft would take the holidays is because I assumed they would maintain a cheaper price than PS4. At price parity it's a completely different dynamic.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
Ehhh, in terms of hardware, I don't see it. The software will be interesting but the hardware is what really gets things interesting and with the CoD and Battlefront deals, I don't see it being nearly as interesting as October.
Click to expand...

Better rethink that.

November isn't a done deal for Sony. Not by a long shot. Though they very well may win.
 
C

Crimson_Gold

Member
hawk2025 said:
I hope it raises Lara's boat :(
Click to expand...

She's gone breh. You can't bring her back. All we can do is hope that the deal was sweet and that PC/PS4 owners are forgiving.

This is one of the first months that everyone said would be interesting that's actually interesting

So shiny, so chrome
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Obliterator said:
Better rethink that.

November isn't a done deal for Sony. Not by a long shot. Though they very well may win.
Click to expand...
As much as I am think October will be close either way, I think Sony will take November Big Time. Like 200k or more difference.
December will be a little less, but still about 100k+.
 
T

Tubie

Member
Obliterator said:
Better rethink that.

November isn't a done deal for Sony. Not by a long shot. Though they very well may win.
Click to expand...

There won't be a huge gap like last year for either console in Nov/Dec, unless MS pushes out some last minute insane deals like even better bundles for $250.

October will be the most interesting of the last 3 months because there's a good chance of: A) PS4 winning Halo month or B) Xbox winning by a sub-100k margin.
 
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