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[slavesnyder]

Please prepare teabagging gifs if Xbox wins.

 

[Boke1879]

I don't feel like the PS4 price drop is as big as the launch of Halo 5 because it's not like Sony broke a new price floor when it dropped. The Xbox One has been $349.99 for a long time now, Sony merely matched. If Sony had gone to $299 or even $329, I would agree that it would be shocking if Xbox won.

Here's the thing. Sony has been consistently outselling the Xbox One at $50 more. Now it reached parity very early in the month of October. It very well could have made a splash.

 

[Bear Force One]

I'd be extremely shocked if PS4 even got close much less won. Halo 5 broke guiness records and had the largest launch of any Halo game in history. Previous ones can't claim that and xbox kicked playstation's ass in all their launches.

I'm talking about shocked to the degree I'd be suspecting the accuracy of the count and Florida hanging chad recount stuff man.

Ummm I believe you got PR'd hard.

 

[RexNovis]

Remind me, who is responsible for making all the popcorn this month? Is it Welfare or Rex? We are going to need a ton tomorrow night. Extra butter, please.

Mmmm popcorn. You have no idea how much I miss it. Count me in for an extra layer of butter and salt.

 

[Welfare]

Remind me, who is responsible for making all the popcorn this month? Is it Welfare or Rex? We are going to need a ton tomorrow night. Extra butter, please.

Everyone will get a big tablespoon of salt and some hot sauce.

 

[Elandyll]

Prediction: PS4 wins by 60k. Wii U under 50k, 3DS maybe breaks 100k.

 

[slavesnyder]

Halo 3 sales revenue vs. Halo 5 sales revenue + hardware included. You fell on MS's PR spin.

Exactly.
Imagine you are a manufacturer of car tires.
Well, your tires do not sell so well this year.
But hey, what if you just include the price of the car into your revenues?
Suddenly you should break records.

 

[Bgamer90]

The only thing that would shock me is a huge difference between ps4 and x1 numbers.

Yep. Same here. I made my prediction late since I couldn't choose a winner. I'm not expecting the gap to be big.

The main thing that made me choose PS4 was MS not mentioning anything about the Xbox One being the top selling console during Halo's launch week (a bit opposite of the statements they made last year around this time). I'll see if I should have reversed the numbers in my prediction tomorrow.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

If...IF PS4 sells more, I can't wait for all inevitable "but teh revenues!" posts that will follow.

 

[Primethius]

Yep. Same here. I made my prediction late since I couldn't choose a winner. I'm not expecting the gap to be big.

Hardest prediction ever. I overthought it and forgot to update my numbers. =/

 

[Y2Kev]

I have on good authority major nelson is buying lots of consoles and putting them in his basement.

 

[3rdamention]

I don't feel like the PS4 price drop is as big as the launch of Halo 5 because it's not like Sony broke a new price floor when it dropped. The Xbox One has been $349.99 for a long time now, Sony merely matched. If Sony had gone to $299 or even $329, I would agree that it would be shocking if Xbox won.

I don't know, I just don't feel like the price drop will be all that wow-inducing to the general public. I imagine a lot of people were thinking "Oh that's it? Xbox One has been that price for months."

I completely disagree. The PS4 has consistently outsold the Xbox One while the PS4 was more expensive. Now they have price parity! Do you think now that they are the same price, all the sudden you will have sales parity? I know, Halo, but it is pretty obvious that the price cut was pretty damn popular when you look at the Amazon Charts. The PS4 with the price cut still beat out the Xbox One with Halo. The only unknown right now is how big the Halo Bundle Preorders (from August and September) are going to factor in. My point is, on paper with all we know now, the price cut was pretty effective.

 

[slavesnyder]

I have on good authority major nelson is buying lots of consoles and putting them in his basement.

Which brand?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Way to go, GAF! Predicted HW difference between PS4 and XB1 in October? 7-10K

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Oct-2015

1.

Spoiler

PS4

- 416K
2.

Spoiler

XB1

- 408K
3. 3DS - 97K
4. WIU - 66K

This is beautiful.

 

[Primethius]

I have on good authority major nelson is buying lots of consoles and putting them in his basement.

Figures. MS won the month because of channel stuffing.

Thanks again Kev. You're the best.

 

[Boke1879]

Figures. MS won the month because of channel stuffing.

Thanks again Kev. You're the best.

I know your post is most likely in jest but it means nothing unless those consoles are sold to consumers.

 

[Maniel]

I know your post is most likely in jest but it means nothing unless those consoles are sold to consumers.

Major Nelson can be a consumer if he wants to

 

[Primethius]

I know your post is most likely in jest but it means nothing unless those consoles are sold to consumers.

The PR though. Most consoles shipped.

 

[DryvBy]

I have on good authority major nelson is buying lots of consoles and putting them in his basement.

This represents truth.

 

[slavesnyder]

I completely disagree. The PS4 has consistently outsold the Xbox One while the PS4 was more expensive. Now they have price parity! Do you think now that they are the same price, all the sudden you will have sales parity? I know, Halo, but it is pretty obvious that the price cut was pretty damn popular when you look at the Amazon Charts. The PS4 with the price cut still beat out the Xbox One with Halo. The only unknown right now is how big the Halo Bundle Preorders (from August and September) are going to factor in.

Do not underestimate the power of preorders.

I am sure they were huge for halo console. Xbox will take the month, the last one for a long time.
Halo will do good numbers and after that fall very hard.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

In my numbers, I have the PS4 winning by a slim margin even though I mostly expect the XB1 to take October.

Like others have already said, the ONLY way I'd be shocked tomorrow (no matter who wins) is if the gap is HUGE!

Yep.

1.)X1 wins by a big margin.
2.)PS4 wins period.
3.)PS4 wins by a big margin.

Those will garner the most amount of shock. The third bringing about a meltdown like no other, of course.

If...IF PS4 sells more, I can't wait for all inevitable "but teh revenues!" posts that will follow.

Yes, I can see this coming as well.

 

[Boke1879]

The PR though. Most consoles shipped.

BRUH! What if they did do that and worded the PR in a way that shows that they won?

 

[Shenmue]

Here's the thing. Sony has been consistently outselling the Xbox One at $50 more. Now it reached parity very early in the month of October. It very well could have made a splash.

I completely disagree. The PS4 has consistently outsold the Xbox One while the PS4 was more expensive. Now they have price parity! Do you think now that they are the same price, all the sudden you will have sales parity? I know, Halo, but it is pretty obvious that the price cut was pretty damn popular when you look at the Amazon Charts. The PS4 with the price cut still beat out the Xbox One with Halo. The only unknown right now is how big the Halo Bundle Preorders (from August and September) are going to factor in. My point is, on paper with all we know now, the price cut was pretty effective.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the PS4 price cut didn't have a big effect on sales. I just don't feel like it's as big as the effect Halo 5 has. I just don't see how price parity is as sexy as the launch of the newest iteration of a console's most popular exclusive series.

 

[3rdamention]

I have on good authority major nelson is buying lots of consoles and putting them in his basement.

He was actually getting his shoes shined to get "cleaned up to play Fallout 4" at least that is what he said on instagram (Im serious). He even posted a video for you to enjoy.


No way he is carrying all those systems into his dirty basement with those freshly shined loafers, no way.

 

[Bgamer90]

I completely disagree. The PS4 has consistently outsold the Xbox One while the PS4 was more expensive. Now they have price parity! Do you think now that they are the same price, all the sudden you will have sales parity? I know, Halo, but it is pretty obvious that the price cut was pretty damn popular when you look at the Amazon Charts. The PS4 with the price cut still beat out the Xbox One with Halo. The only unknown right now is how big the Halo Bundle Preorders (from August and September) are going to factor in.

As I said in a previous post a few weeks back, people who use Amazon so much should have factored in the Halo bundle doing better than the actual Xbox bundles that counted in August. Seems like many people just skimped over the fact.

I'm expecting "Amazon failed" type of posts if the Xbox One takes October; Not that it's a great source anyway but if you are going to use Amazon as a source to that level then you might as well use it to the fullest instead of just focusing on the October chart (e.g.: compare Halo bundle position in August/September with other Xbox bundles and try to get a good range based on what the Xbox One did for NPD during both months).

 

[Bear Force One]

For all intent and purposes. The XB1 SHOULD win this month. Halo 5 should have secured that. Yet here we are talking about the possiblity of a PS4 win. I think it would be more shocking if PS4 won.

This. The shock is really only one sided IMO.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

Yep.

1.)X1 wins by a big margin.
2.)PS4 wins period.
3.)PS4 wins by a big margin.

Those will garner the most amount of shock. The third bringing about a meltdown like no other, of course.

Yes, I can see this coming as well.

#3 would be the end of GAF as we know it—With nuclear winter, ruthless scavengers picking over fresh corpses, rival gangs eviscerating one another, dogs and cats living together. Mass Hysteria!!!

 

[3rdamention]

As I said in a previous post a few weeks back, people who use Amazon so much should have factored in the Halo bundle doing better than the actual Xbox bundles that counted in August. Seems like many people just skimped over the fact.

I'm expecting "Amazon failed" type of posts if the Xbox One takes October; Not that it's a great source anyway but if you are going to use Amazon as a source to that level then you might as well use it to the fullest instead of just focusing on the October chart (e.g.: compare Halo bundle position in August/September with other Xbox bundles and try to get a good range based on what the Xbox One did for NPD during both months).

Totally agree! You will see those posts. But we know (heck, I remember you posting about people shouldn't forget Halo preorders charting in August weeks ago) there is that HUGE unknown factor with Preorders. And if Xbox 1 wins October, those preorders will obviously be the difference.

And the same thing will happen in November as people forget about the Star Wars and COD Preorders the previous 2 months.

 

[Purest 78]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the PS4 price cut didn't have a big effect on sales. I just don't feel like it's as big as the effect Halo 5 has. I just don't see how price parity is as sexy as the launch of the newest iteration of a console's most popular exclusive series.

Is it not possible that majority of Halo fans already had a x1?

 

[Darth Smurf X]

Totally agree! You will see those posts. But we know (heck, I remember you posting about people shouldn't forget Halo preorders charting in August weeks ago) there is that HUGE unknown factor with Preorders. And if Xbox 1 wins October, those preorders will obviously be the difference.

And the same thing will happen in November as people forget about the Star Wars and COD Preorders the previous 2 months.

I don't think people will forget about them when this is quoted on like every page of this thread.

Amazon chart for october:

#19 PS4 Uncharted Bundle
#25 XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#26 PS4 LE Star Wars Bundle (counted for november)
#39 PS4 COD Bundle (counted for november)
#49 PS4 TLOU Bundle
#59 PS4 Destiny Bunle
#77 XB1 GOW Bundle
#89 PS4 Star Wars Bundle (counted for november)

 

[3rdamention]

For Giggles, the Wal Mart Black Friday "Preview" ad has dropped. It is nowhere near the full ad, just 2 pages of items that will be on sale.


No sign of PS4 in those 2 pages, but the Gears of War Xbox 1 Bundle is $299 with a $30 gift card. It also has a 1 Hour Guarantee. I just thought I would drop that here, since I didn't want to make a thread about the Preview Ad when the real ad will probably drop very soon.


http://www.bfads.net/Featured-Sale/Walmart-2015-11-11/Ad#

 

[Boke1879]

For Giggles, the Wal Mart Black Friday "Preview" ad has dropped. It is nowhere near the full ad, just 2 pages of items that will be on sale.


No sign of PS4 in those 2 pages, but the Gears of War Xbox 1 Bundle is $299 with a $30 gift card. I just thought I would drop that here, since I didn't want to make a thread about the Preview Ad when the real ad will probably drop very soon.


http://www.bfads.net/Featured-Sale/Walmart-2015-11-11/Ad#

Seems like most of the $299 xbox bundles will get a giftcard of some sort.

 

[3rdamention]

I don't think people will forget about them when this is quoted on like every page of this thread.

But dont forget September too!


The PS4 Star Wars Limited Edition Bundle was #16 in September's Monthly Chart.

 

[Shenmue]

Is it not possible that majority of Halo fans already had a x1?

It's possible for sure. But at the same time, we know there's a large contingency of people who have yet to upgrade from their 360s or went PS4 after 360. To me, Halo 5 is one of the few exclusives that has the power to push those people to either upgrade or switch back.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

As I said in a previous post a few weeks back, people who use Amazon so much should have factored in the Halo bundle doing better than the actual Xbox bundles that counted in August. Seems like many people just skimped over the fact.

I'm expecting "Amazon failed" type of posts if the Xbox One takes October; Not that it's a great source anyway but if you are going to use Amazon as a source to that level then you might as well use it to the fullest instead of just focusing on the October chart (e.g.: compare Halo bundle position in August/September with other Xbox bundles and try to get a good range based on what the Xbox One did for NPD during both months).

Well, it depends on how many preorders you think it gathered across those months. I do not think it was anything noteworthy. Someone else may think it was a huge amount. Who knows. Also, how do the TLoU and Destiny bundles add on to Uncharted's first place position?

So basically, #19 Uncharted Collection + #49 TLoU + #59 Destiny >/< #25 Halo + #77 GOW + Halo preorders (August and September).

It doesn't mean people didn't factor in those preorders just because they still think the PS4 will win based on Amazon.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

But dont forget September too!


The PS4 Star Wars Limited Edition Bundle was #16 in September's Monthly Chart.

It's also #26 in October monthly chart.

 

[slavesnyder]

I wonder what will happen if the Star Wars game is actually good?

 

[DayEnder]

I wonder what will happen if the Star Wars game is actually good?

I played the beta and it was lots of fun. From what I tried it seems like it'll sell and review pretty well.

Disclaimer: I preordered it after playing the beta. We can definitely extrapolate that one preorder into millions sold. I figure the digital copies will outnumber physical copies by at least a 20:1 (conservative estimate).

Spoiler

This is sarcasm...except the preorder. I did do that.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I wonder what will happen if the Star Wars game is actually good?

People who actually play video games will probably like that.

Since no one in this thread actually plays games, who cares.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

I played the beta and it was lots of fun. From what I tried it seems like it'll sell and review pretty well.

Disclaimer: I preordered it after playing the beta. We can definitely extrapolate that one preorder into millions sold. I figure the digital copies will outnumber physical copies by at least a 20:1 (conservative estimate).

Spoiler

This is sarcasm...except the preorder. I did do that.

I preordered after playing the Beta as well. Digital also. So... now we need to do some more maths.

 

[slavesnyder]

I played the beta and it was lots of fun. From what I tried it seems like it'll sell and review pretty well.

Disclaimer: I preordered it after playing the beta. We can definitely extrapolate that one preorder into millions sold. I figure the digital copies will outnumber physical copies by at least a 20:1 (conservative estimate).

Spoiler

This is sarcasm...except the preorder. I did do that.

nice.
Halo servers will become a wasteland.

I preordered after playing the Beta as well. Digital though. So... now we need to do some more maths.

So 50% split digital vs. retail.
Seems nothing special nowerdays with what you can read in other threads.

People who actually play video games will probably like that.

Since no one in this thread actually plays games, who cares.

Fair point. Generally neither nor.
Was just thinking that sales were largely motivated by franchise magic so far, without big knowledge about the quality of the game. COD is always COD, you can preorder without risc. Battlefront has not yet proven much, just promised.

 

[Cereal Enthusiast]

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1

Fallout 4 ahead of Call of Duty and Halo. In-fucking-credible. Best selling next-gen game of the year, in ONE day.

Skyrim all over again, 12 million +

 

[WarpathDC]

This is one of the most entertaining threads on GAF. Who knew?

Spoiler

everyone

 

[Primethius]

This is one of the most entertaining threads on GAF. Who knew?

Spoiler

everyone

The real fun starts tomorrow at 4.

 

[DayEnder]

I preordered after playing the Beta as well. Digital though. So... now we need to do some more maths.

I have a degree for that...if only it was more than a really expensive piece of paper.

We can probably graph Battlefront digital to physical sales. We've established based on our preorders that digital sales is going to be exponentially more than physical.

Spoiler

Still sarcasm.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

NPD
Nintendo Direct
Manga releases (personal for me )

Tomorrow is going to be so good!!!

 

[Bgamer90]

Well, it depends on how many preorders you think it gathered across those months. I do not think it was anything noteworthy. Someone else may think it was a huge amount. Who knows. Also, how do the TLoU and Destiny bundles add on to Uncharted's first place position?

So basically, #19 Uncharted Collection + #49 TLoU + #59 Destiny >/< #25 Halo + #77 GOW + Halo preorders (August and September).

I said it in a post a few weeks ago -- if the Halo 5 bundle was the top Xbox bundle on Amazon during a month in which it didn't count, with that month being 202K for Xbox (August NPD) then where does that put the Halo bundle in terms of pre-orders being added on? I can't see how someone who follows Amazon stats so closely could think that it was a small/insignificant amount (since again, it was the #1 Xbox on Amazon in August).

It doesn't mean people didn't factor in those preorders just because they still think the PS4 will win based on Amazon.

I never said that at all (especially since I predicted the PS4 winning by a little bit). I'm just saying that people who greatly use Amazon shouldn't say that Amazon was "wrong" if the results end up being different from what they predicted (with what I said above being a main reason why). That's not to defend using Amazon as a great source -- it's to more so say that the stats available could support either console winning.

 

[RexNovis]

Totally agree! You will see those posts. But we know (heck, I remember you posting about people shouldn't forget Halo preorders charting in August weeks ago) there is that HUGE unknown factor with Preorders. And if Xbox 1 wins October, those preorders will obviously be the difference.

And the same thing will happen in November as people forget about the Star Wars and COD Preorders the previous 2 months.

For the record I'm pretty sure I was the first person to bring this up way back on October 14th.

You have to also remember that the Halo bundle was a BIG seller (#24 on monthly) during its debut month. All the preorders prior to this month wont be showing up on the October charts. As such these charts might not provide as accurate of a sales barometer this time around

and yea BGamer was reiterating it in this thread and people jumped on him like he was saying something outrageous. Absolutely shameful.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I said it in a post a few weeks ago -- if the Halo 5 bundle was the top Xbox bundle on Amazon during a month in which it didn't count, with that month being 202K for Xbox (August NPD) then where does that put the Halo bundle in terms of pre-orders being added on? I can't see how someone who follows Amazon stats so closely could think that it was a small/insignificant amount (since again, it was the #1 Xbox on Amazon in August).

NPD and Amazon have no correlation outside of Amazon being able to predict which console will be number 1 for NPD. Getting into specific numbers isn't going to go anywhere.

I never said that at all (especially since I predicted the PS4 winning by a little bit). I'm just saying that people who greatly use Amazon shouldn't say that Amazon was "wrong" if the results end up being different from what they predicted (with what I said above being a main reason why). That's not to defend using Amazon as a great source -- it's to more so say that the stats available could support either console winning.

Sure. I have no qualms with what you're saying here.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

For the record I'm pretty sure I was the first person to bring this up.



and yea BGamer was reiterating it in this thread and people jumped on him like he was saying something outrageous. Absolutely shameful.

How do we know the sales are "BIG"?