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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

O

OfficerRaichu15

Member
Loris146 said:
Wii u "won" at target online because PS4 and XB1 deals were in store only.
Click to expand...
I don't know a lot of accounts here at gaf are showing wii u doing pretty damn well at Target retail.
Guess we will have to wait and see I mean Xbox One probably(between the two(maybe all 3 hearing that Target is more xbox oriented) won but Wii U had a shot.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
As far as I know BB accounts for 10-15% of US retail sales. That's quite a good sample. That said, Walmart & Co. hat different offers (e.g. gift cards), so calling a BF winner seems to be premature.



What makes you so sure? Please don't tell me 9 of your friends bought their XBOX One there -.-.
Click to expand...

Funny but target had the best x1 deal just like last year. If you were in the market for an X1 target was your place.

Also pretty impressive ps4 generated enough revenue to beat out all the cheap TVs at bestbuy.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
allan-bh said:
For november + december I have no doubt that PS4 will sell more. On Black Friday we need more information but is not out of question that Xbox One sold a little more, or the inverse.

Maybe InfoScout will release data again. In 2014 some people doubted their data but the big lead pointed for Xbox One was consistent with NPD, plus it's a company with several important clients.
Click to expand...



They (InfoScout) already did, today! Well, at least a bit of it. They broke down the top selling product for a few stores, and at Best Buy, it was the Uncharted Bundle. That was the only console on their short list.

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-frid...d-throw-in-the-towel-against-the-amazon-fire/
 
E

Elios83

Member
OfficerRaichu15 said:
So we got
PS4- Best Buy
Wii U- Target.com :p
Xbox- Gamestop?
This is interesting
Click to expand...

Wii U at Target.com only because of specific circumstances. Overall it's unikely it has won somewhere.
And isn't the Uncharted bundle number one on Gamestop as well?

Probably it's time to specify what we're talking about when we say that someone has won somewhere otherwise the discussion from here on will be a mess and everyone will say whatever they like.
I'd wait for the official PRs next week anyway although I expect lots of spinning, many (*) and everyone claiming they have won in some way :p
 
N

NDP_Mulcair

Banned
OfficerRaichu15 said:
So we got
PS4- Best Buy
Wii U- Target.com :p
Xbox- Gamestop?
This is interesting
Click to expand...

Ryng_Tolu said:
The first official data of who won Black Friday is Wii U which won on Target online... i know this seem more like a joke, but tecnically that is. :p
Click to expand...


OfficerRaichu15 and Ryng_Tolu,

The data point of Wii U as the best-selling console on 'Target.com' is irrelevant and doesn't reflect the trends of the broader U.S. Games Industry.

In data reports from The NPD Group, Target.com comprises a very small, almost negligible percentage of the overall dataset.

Target retail stores which do not show a 'Wii U win' in any sense of the term far outweigh their fledgling online services.

It has been reported that online 'Target.com' makes up only 2-3% of total Target sales. And, total Target sales comprise only a minority of the total dataset from The NPD Group.

GameStop and Wal-Mart are by far the most important retailers for The NPD Group's dataset.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
slavesnyder said:
GAFfers
Click to expand...

Ah, so one could summarize the two different "audiences" as follows:

5452ef1664bf6.image.jpg


I'll let you decice which side is who...
 
O

OlgerO

Neo Member
3rdamention said:
They (InfoScout) already did, today! Well, at least a bit of it. They broke down the top selling product for a few stores, and at Best Buy, it was the Uncharted Bundle. That was the only console on their short list.

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-frid...d-throw-in-the-towel-against-the-amazon-fire/
Click to expand...

Straight from this site

About the Data
More than 300,000 Americans snap pictures of their everyday shopping receipts via InfoScout’s mobile apps: Shoparoo, Receipt Hog and Receipt Lottery. The first 150,000 receipts (151,337 to be exact) reported on Thanksgiving night and Black

Friday were analyzed to provide a quick read on this year’s hottest items based on unit sales and dollar sales for each major retailer.

So later sales are not taken into account then. This could mean that PS4 sold the quickest, but ultimately all consoles could still have been sold, and if xbox one had more stock..
 
O

OfficerRaichu15

Member
NDP_Mulcair said:
OfficerRaichu15 and Ryng_Tolu,

The data point of Wii U as the best-selling console on 'Target.com' is irrelevant and doesn't reflect the trends of the broader U.S. Games Industry.

In data reports from The NPD Group, Target.com comprises a very small, almost negligible percentage of the overall dataset.

Target retail stores which do not show a 'Wii U win' in any sense of the term far outweigh their fledgling online services.

It has been reported that online 'Target.com' makes up only 2-3% of total Target sales. And, total Target sales comprise only a minority of the total dataset from The NPD Group.

GameStop and Wal-Mart are by far the most important retailers for The NPD Group's dataset.
Click to expand...
Yeah my mistake,
I did not see that.
Forgive me gaf.
 
O

orochi91

Member
NDP_Mulcair said:
OfficerRaichu15 and Ryng_Tolu,
It has been reported that online 'Target.com' makes up only 2-3% of total Target sales. And, total Target sales comprise only a minority of the total dataset from The NPD Group.

GameStop and Wal-Mart are by far the most important retailers for The NPD Group's dataset.
Click to expand...

Do you have any info on how which console is performing better at Wal-Mart and GameStop?
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
NDP_Mulcair said:
OfficerRaichu15 and Ryng_Tolu,

The data point of Wii U as the best-selling console on 'Target.com' is irrelevant and doesn't reflect the trends of the broader U.S. Games Industry.

In data reports from The NPD Group, Target.com comprises a very small, almost negligible percentage of the overall dataset.

Target retail stores which do not show a 'Wii U win' in any sense of the term far outweigh their fledgling online services.

It has been reported that online 'Target.com' makes up only 2-3% of total Target sales. And, total Target sales comprise only a minority of the total dataset from The NPD Group.

GameStop and Wal-Mart are by far the most important retailers for The NPD Group's dataset.
Click to expand...

Thanks George. :)
I just said to OlgerO that the first official data was from Target online, which showed Wii U first.
Of course i don't expected this to means much.

Anyway, since you predicted even last month, will you write again you'r predictions even in the November thread?

Just because i think could be funny. :D
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
Ah, so one could summarize the two different "audiences" as follows:

I'll let you decice which side is who...
Click to expand...

South Park is something for communist hipster punks. I won't fall in this trap of yours, bitch.

The month has not even ended and we are already on the road to madness.
Excellent.
 
K

Kralamoonard

Member
Javin98 said:
LOL, that's one hell of a conspiracy theory. On a more serious note, I highly doubt it. Aqua and donny were both together in threads before Aqua was banned. I don't think she had the time to create a secondary account just to act more in line with the rest of us, basically I mean non-insider. But if it were true, it'd be better than Darth's "I am your father!" scene. ;)
Click to expand...

Oh lol for some reason I though it was aqua's legit account after his other was banned but just not leaking stuff anymore. Must have misread a post on another thread. Actually come to think of it, it was a post on the announcement thread that Aqua was leaving and someone said something to the effect of "at least donny will still be here" or something like that and I must have grossly misunderstood it lol
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Why do people always stirr in other users' identities and accounts.
If Aqua is still here under another avatar - nice.
Let her. It's none of our business.
With no one here.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
RexNovis said:
Can somebody with access to the info please post monthly figures for 360 vs concurrent monthly figures for PS4 in their respective 2nd years so we can stop with this "it's down compared to 360" nonsense?
Click to expand...

It's doing fine. The PS4 is over the Xbox 360 and it'll be comfortably be over it at the end of the year.

Jan: 360 - 294k | PS4 - 189k
Feb: 360 - 228k | PS4 - 342k
Mar: 360 - 199k | PS4 - 340k
Apr: 360 - 174k | PS4 - 174k
May: 360 - 155k | PS4 - 152k
Jun: 360 - 198k | PS4 - 365k
Jul: 360 - 170k | PS4 - 218k
Aug: 360 - 277k | PS4 - 209k
Sep: 360 - 528k | PS4 - 354k
Oct: 360 - 366k | PS4 - 275k
Nov: 360 - 770k | PS4 - ???
Dec: 360 - 1260k | PS4 - ???
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Quoting myself from the other thread.

Abdiel said:
So, instead of just a general Black Friday measurement, I'm kinda looking over the month perspective here -

With how our stores did today, and how they've done over the month?

I'm going to make an easy call for the PS4 from Best Buys.

This isn't the prediction thread, and the month hasn't fully closed yet, so I'll be refining this more with some more detailed analysis when things are a little quieter (I like to use my evenings where I get to do some paperwork to pull up the SKUs in the inventory system, haha. I have a list in my phone of the district numbers and the SKU numbers to quickly scan and run numbers for wider spectrums).

But at this point, with our BF weekend ahead of us, and our stores showing very consistent performance with no distinct way for the XB1 to pull ahead in any meaningful way at all, and the month behind us where we saw the excellent performance of the Battlefront bundles, and the less incredible, but still decent performance of the CoD bundles...

I feel pretty comfortable with this. I'll refine my comments for the prediction thread if I find anything different by then.

Also: Tomb Raider software is really nothing to write home about. There's little to no fanfare around Halo, either, so I'll be kind of surprised if that does manage to chart again this month.
Click to expand...

I'll refine these comments if I need to after the weekend is over and I can do more careful analysis, but my initial sweeps of the large districts I check all told a similar story, very solid numbers for both systems on black friday, but the XB1 was definitely not doing the win it did last year, and certainly nothing to overcome the battlefront wave from earlier in the month.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
I don't even know if I'll be able to ballpark proper guesses this month. Black Friday is so volatile.

[PS4] 1576k
[XB1] 1412k
[3DS] 581k
[WIU] 344k
 
D

Death2494

Member
[3DS] 340K
[PS4] 1100K
[WIU] 300K
[XB1] 1000K

I think some people are misinterpreting some of our insiders' analysis. Sony may have shipped more units than Microsoft this year in the US.
 
B

Boombloxer

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Making stuff up based on whatever source you want is the easiest way to get quoted by data starved sites. And Adobe's thing they're doing is still miles better than Superdata and those clowns get quoted all the time.

Try it. Seriously. Whip up a logo, put up a URL, throw some stock photos of young, smart looking people pointing at pie charts on your splash page.

Say "based on our detailed analysis of the market, we think Fallout 4 sold 3.2 million copies digitally last week". Throw on a bar chart. Someone would pick it up and run with it and next thing you know you're on the front page of Polygon.



980k is doom and gloom?? Or are you referring to something else?
Click to expand...

You jest, but there plenty that make a living doing it.
 
K

kyser73

Member
My god, we're reduced to having conniptions over social media tracking and an online sales result that represents less than a % of the total market.

This thread is like a nest of fledglings with their beaks open squawking 'Feed me data! Feeeed me data!!!'

Desperate times.
 
H

harrisk954

Member
damisa said:
So I do think Sony waited too long for a price cut. However pent up demand should make it have good sales in Nov at least
Click to expand...

I think that last year there was a major impact by the XB1 fire sales moreso than any need for a PS4 price cut as other than the holidays, the PS4 outsold the cheaper XB1 the entire test of 2015 (April notwithstanding).
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
kyser73 said:
My god, we're reduced to having conniptions over social media tracking and an online sales result that represents less than a % of the total market.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I follow these threads for quite a while now, but I have not lived on GAF in thoses good old days, unfortunately.
It seems as in the past there was a constant flow of the most valuable insider info and finest data, compared to the shards we have now.
Was it really this great? Damn, I missed something then.
kyser73 said:
This thread is like a nest of fledglings with their beaks open squawking 'Feed me data! Feeeed me data!!!'
Desperate times.
Click to expand...
Don't be sad. On the bright side we have
a bunch of retail contacts
a whole thread of anecdotal evidence next door
a bunch of excel wizards with all data from the past, diced and sliced for deeper exegesis
some really clever brains with deep insights
cynics, clowns and fanboys
suddenly appearing NPD wisdom from unexplicable sources
plus the bits and pieces we gather from the net

Of course we want data. This is the most interesting time of the year sales wise.
But in the end it's called: November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions

What fun would there be left if we had everything we wish for?
 
A

allan-bh

Member
3rdamention said:
They (InfoScout) already did, today! Well, at least a bit of it. They broke down the top selling product for a few stores, and at Best Buy, it was the Uncharted Bundle. That was the only console on their short list.

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-frid...d-throw-in-the-towel-against-the-amazon-fire/
Click to expand...

PS4 sales on BF likely was more concentrated in one SKU because the others don't received discount. For Xbox One Gears bundle leads but sales should be more spread out because all SKUs was $50 off.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
allan-bh said:
PS4 sales on BF likely was more concentrated in one SKU because the others don't received discount. For Xbox One Gears bundle leads but sales should be more spread out because all SKUs was $50 off.
Click to expand...

Most of those discounted bundles were still $349 so not really an advantage. Not much reason to buy those over the Gears bundle outside of the larger hard drives, which probably doesn't matter to the average consumer.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
allan-bh said:
PS4 sales on BF likely was more concentrated in one SKU because the others don't received discount. For Xbox One Gears bundle leads but sales should be more spread out because all SKUs was $50 off.
Click to expand...

PS4 had some other bundles too, example SWBF bundle at $349
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
allan-bh said:
PS4 sales on BF likely was more concentrated in one SKU because the others don't received discount. For Xbox One Gears bundle leads but sales should be more spread out because all SKUs was $50 off.
Click to expand...

All that really does is reach price parity with similar PS4 bundles at $350. When it comes down to it, both Sony and MS had:

1 $299 system
A few $350 systems
A few Limited systems
 
C

Crimson_Gold

Member
allan-bh said:
This is the standard price, no price cut for BF.
Click to expand...

This has little to no bearing to most people. The people doing black Friday shopping are usually looking for the cheapest price. Both consoles were available for $299. Everything else just comes down to what the consumer wanted after that at any other price point.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Fat4all said:
All that really does is reach price parity with similar PS4 bundles at $350. When it comes down to it, both Sony and MS had:

1 $299 system
A few $350 systems
A few Limited systems
Click to expand...

The point is that people that wanted PS4 for $349 doesn't needed to wait. In case of Xbox One people that was looking for a 1TB model had to wait BF for the lower price.

Sales of Xbox One 1TB bundles tend to be more concentrated in Black Friday than PS4 $349 bundles.
 
V

Vena

Member
3rdamention said:
They (InfoScout) already did, today! Well, at least a bit of it. They broke down the top selling product for a few stores, and at Best Buy, it was the Uncharted Bundle. That was the only console on their short list.

http://blog.infoscout.co/black-frid...d-throw-in-the-towel-against-the-amazon-fire/
Click to expand...

InfoScout is unreliable, though their extrapolation is likely not too far off the mark given the 150k sample size or whatever. But BestBuy is too small of a market share to matter.

We need GameStop/Walmart figures to actually have a gauge.

Is BestBuy the best place for the PS4 bundle this BF?
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
allan-bh said:
The point is that people that wanted PS4 for $349 doesn't needed to wait. In case of Xbox One people that was looking for a 1TB Xbox One had to wait BF for the lower price.

Sales of Xbox One 1TB bundles tend to be more concentrated in Black Friday than PS4 $349 bundles.
Click to expand...

I honestly don't think most people who were shopping for an Xbox One on Black Friday cared whether or not it was 500 gigs or 1 tb. Priority was most likely price, then game included, then maybe specs.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
Vena said:
InfoScout is unreliable, though their extrapolation is likely not too far off the mark given the 150k sample size or whatever. But BestBuy is too small of a market share to matter.

We need GameStop/Walmart figures to actually have a gauge,
Click to expand...



I'm not saying, and never said they were accurate...I replied to someone who specifically asked if Infoscout would be sharing a black friday analysis...and I shared what they published...
 
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