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Wkd Box Office 0219-2116 - Two godmen, a mermaid, and a pizza place?
- Thread starter xaosslug
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I wouldn't take a bet out on it, but I could easily see it happening. I doubt Apocalypse grosses much more than 250m domestically, if it even makes that. There's always a chance Strange breaks out like Guardians.
If the movie is done well it should offer something unique to the current super hero genre, and we've seen films like that, including right now with Deadpool, blow up if received well.
I don't think the audience is growing 7 X-Men films in. I just think they've hit their peak and overall competition is stronger than this year than 2014. TMNT, Warcraft, Central Intelligence, Dory, ID4, The Conjuring 2 are all potential $100M movies.
If Paul Rudd and Ant-Man can do $180M then I think Cumberpatch, Ejiofor, McAdams, and Swinton can surprise people. Dr. Strange only has Fantastic Beasts as competition. I'm not willing to lay a twerk bet on it but it could happen.
I think Jackman is still the biggest draw for the franchise, and it's why I'm curious to see this movie's domestic gross, but brand does matter. I'm expecting around $250 million since Days did really well, but I want to be surprised.
You might say I want to balee.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
To be fair that's the same reaction I've noticed with every BvS trailer shown. Maybe it's hard to judge people's excitement.
Movies make most of their gross in a few weeks. Days made most of its gross by the time the third weekend hit in 2014. In its first three weeks, it had Maleficent, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, 22 Jump Street, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 to contend with. All movies that grossed over $100 million domestically, with Maleficent grossing over $200 million, and 22 Jump Street grossing almost $200 million. But it had already reached just short of $200 million by the third weekend.
Central Intelligence, Finding Dory, and ID4 are coming 3-4 weeks after Apocalypse. They're going to hurt it but at that stage, it matters a lot less and is no different than usual in these months. Apocalypse will have made most of its gross at that stage. This year it has TMNT, The Conjuring 2, and Warcraft to contend with. It's probably got it a little easier if anything compared to 2014.
Assuming Apocalypse is going to have a tough time hitting $200 million doesn't have much to do with its audience growing. You're pretty much assuming a lot less people are going to show up even though the franchise is better positioned today than it was in 2014. The real unknown is whether Jackman's absence hurts it.
Quite true.
It's just every other trailer elicited a response. Suicide Squad played quite well and BvS seemed to kick in a few 'Oh yeah this is coming out' (though I give props to the insightful philosophy of the guy behind me who's only comment was 'God Amy Adams would get it')
Warcraft though - I'll meet you halfway and say the audience played a huge poker face.
What I mean to say is Apocalypse doing $200M is more likely than approaching $300M. If I had to throw a random prediction out there, I'll say $225M. I absolutely don't think it surpasses DOFP.
That'd make more sense.
But if Apocalypse grosses $225 million and misses out on passing Days by $8 million, then you should put up a twerk video regardless. It's like you cursed the movie at that stage. The only explanation for such fuckery.
I'll keep this post in mind should that happen. And I won't forget Chamber. I never forget when I decide to remember.
It's interesting in that Wolverine on his own hasn't been box office dynamite, but Wolverine in an X-Men movie is.
As far as the current X-Men strategy, what they're doing now is kind of a complicated multi-film strategy of rotating out certain castmembers. DOFP was the last ride for Jackman in the series proper (along with the rest of the old cast), while Apocalypse is most likely the last we'll see of Lawrence, so by the time we get to X-Men: Sinister or whatever else is next they're going to be centering on McAvoy and the newbies.
MrCunningham
Member
He must be grinning from ear to ear just knowing that this movie has vindicated him in his pursuit of making a Deadpool movie. The people at Fox much feel like idiots for not green lighting this movie sooner.
The number one X-Men movie domestically and number two worldwide. An R-Rated X-Men movie staring Deadpool that only cost 50+ million to produce. This movie is already changing the comic book movie landscape.
Not to be overly defensive of studio executives, but I wouldn't say the case for a Deadpool was that obvious a slam dunk. Plenty of people were wary of its commercial potential, and its performance has exceeded anyone's reasonable estimation.
Summer box office predicts? Okay...
Finding Dory - 418M
Captain America: Civil War - 414M
Suicide Squad - 398M
The Secret Life of Pets - 279M
Independence Day Resurgence - 74M/245M
Jason Bourne - 230M
Star Trek Beyond - 183M
Ghostbusters - 180M
X-Men: Apocalypse - 168M
The BFG - 161M
Alice Through the Looking Glass - 148M
Central Intelligence - 144M
Neighbors 2 - 123M
Warcraft - 117M
That's what I'm feeling right now.
Deadpool's doing sweet by the way. Zoolander 2 deserves to bomb. Might catch Risen over Spring Break tbh.
Finding Dory - 418M
Captain America: Civil War - 414M
Suicide Squad - 398M
The Secret Life of Pets - 279M
Independence Day Resurgence - 74M/245M
Jason Bourne - 230M
Star Trek Beyond - 183M
Ghostbusters - 180M
X-Men: Apocalypse - 168M
The BFG - 161M
Alice Through the Looking Glass - 148M
Central Intelligence - 144M
Neighbors 2 - 123M
Warcraft - 117M
That's what I'm feeling right now.
Deadpool's doing sweet by the way. Zoolander 2 deserves to bomb. Might catch Risen over Spring Break tbh.
I it really? Origins was awful. Like Green Lantern bad. That movie grossed what it id purely on Jackman and the character.
The Wolverine was better, particularly the unrated version (which didn't really matter as it wasn't the version in theatres), but not in the upper echelon of the genre. "Decent" following up on "crap" is not a recipe for success.
Why would the X-Men franchise suddenly drop to First Class levels (adjusted for inflation) despite the very positive reception of DOFP?
Wow. Optimistic. Particularly 3.
Marketing has been fairly blah and seeing the release date is pretty terrible and crowded, I don't see it doing so hot. I wouldn't mind for it to do better though.
It's getting more measurable social media buzz than DOFP was at this point in the leadup to its release.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
It isn't summer, but throw Batman v Superman in there.
MrCunningham
Member
I think it really was the combination of an R-Rated movie with a wise cracking anti-hero that turned Fox off. But I think they decided to give this a shot after the success of Kingsman. But I do think that the time was right, I think there was a fatigue with the current format of comic book movies, and audiences were looking for something with a little more spice to it. This one definitely hit audiences in the right way.
I'll go with 479M which might be a bit high. Definitely see it doing better than Civil War though. FWIW, I feel like Rogue One will win the year overall.
Certain franchises will be hit with audience fatigue, but the genre as a whole doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
AquaWateria
Member
I find it funny how overly optimistic you're for Suicide Squad. I honestly doubt it will do that much but who knows.
Now seeing how you expect Apocalypse to only sell 168M is just weird.
On the one hand, I'm utterly shocked by Deadpool's performance and never expected it to do this good; but on the other hand.. they essentially created the perfect first and proper Deadpool movie that is true to the character from the marketing to the movie itself, and it shouldn't be that surprising that quality popcorn cinema can be that successful.
I'm just happy for Ryan, he deserves it.
I also didn't expect Revenant to stick around in the top 10 for so long.
I'm just happy for Ryan, he deserves it.
I also didn't expect Revenant to stick around in the top 10 for so long.
BattleMonkey
Member
Yup. I'm Avenger fatigued out on that whole cast of characters and franchise. Excited for other newer comic movies though.
Are you ready to hear about Star Wars fatigue when Episode VIII "only" does 700M domestic?
I really think Suicide Squad is being underestimated by most. Batman, Joker and Harley in one movie is going to draw big time and it already has tons of buzz.
1. Rogue One
2. Batman v Superman
3. Finding Dory
4. Civil War
5. Suicide Squad
Domestic prediction. The top 3 go over $400M. I think Suicide Squad does a bit better than what Deadpool is doing right now.
Same here. I watched every MCU movie at the theatre until Age of Ultron and Ant-Man. Waited for streaming and didn't regret it. Like you I'm eager to watch other offerings like BvS, Suicide Squad, and X-Men. Until I get sick of those too, lol. What a first-world problem to have eh?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Suicide Squad is going to make ridiculous amounts of money.
Joker & Batman aside - Wait'll they get that hit of Harley Quinn. The embracing of Deadpool is only good news for both the character and that movie.
Joker & Batman aside - Wait'll they get that hit of Harley Quinn. The embracing of Deadpool is only good news for both the character and that movie.
ryutaro's mama
Member
SKULLPOOPL FTW
Violence Jack
Member
Deadpool got those WW numbers, and it was never released in China right? Insane.
And I need to see The Witch. I've heard nothing but good things from my fellow horror friends.
And I need to see The Witch. I've heard nothing but good things from my fellow horror friends.
IceDoesntHelp
Banned
The Witch and Deadpool are both fantastic movies.
generic_username
I switched to an alt account to ditch my embarrassing tag so I could be an embarrassing Naughty Dog fanboy in peace. Ask me anything!
Yup. Suicide Squad is going to surprise a lot of people box office wise. I think it will do great.
AgentChris
Member
No Wolverine in Apocalypse? I think that movie will under perform.
Liquidsnake
Banned
Bobby Roberts
Banned
And that kills my Blu Ray hopes
It's coming out April 5th.
There's zero plans for a theatrical re-release any time soon.
Discotheque
Banned
i think they did reshoots to throw in some jackman but he's not been in any of the marketing so far. so his role in here will be pretty damn small.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I remember everyone just assuming he'd be one of the horsemen.
NOPE!
NOPE!
Not having Logan as a Horsemen is one of those mind numbingly bad decisions that keep plaguing this franchise.
The Lone Courier
Member
Just saw Deadpool and don't see why its getting so much love. It wasn't the worst superhero movie, certainly not the best. I just wasn't feeling it.
Jackman wants to wrap things up, and the franchise has to move on from him in order to remain viable; devoting tons of screentime to Wolverine when they need to establish all the new characters who will be carrying the franchise going forward is counterproductive. Jackman wanted one more Wolverine film, and that's what he's doing.
Furious 7 came out on Easter Weekend, so probably comparable to Deadpool with regards to the holiday effect.
Dont they lose Fass, McCoy, and Jlaw after this one too? I would assume Apoc is the sent off to that. While Wolv 3 is the send off to Jackman. So they are back to square one minus Reyonds.
whitemex88
Member
Lawrence is almost certainly gone. McAvoy and Fassbender have said they're open to continuing, and the plan is pretty obviously to keep McAvoy, at a minimum, with the newbie X-Men (whether or not Magneto comes back is something you can easily write around, since he's not an X-Man).
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