That's certainly one of the bolder predictions I've seen this year. Especially without a trailer release.
I'm not entirely sure how you come to this conclusion. It's not going to have a tough time hitting $200 million. That's less likely than it hitting $300 million. It managed over $200 million in 2014 with Maleficent opening the week after it, and that's likely tougher competition than Turtles this year. They had an uphill battle after X3 and Origins, but they're much better positioned as a franchise today than they were back then.
That's certainly one of the bolder predictions I've seen this year. Especially without a trailer release.
I think Jackman is still the biggest draw for the franchise, and it's why I'm curious to see this movie's domestic gross, but brand does matter. I'm expecting around $250 million since Days did really well, but I want to be surprised.That's a good point about the lack of the older cast, especially Jackman. J.Law is a big star, but I don't know if she's really been a draw for the films. It always seemed more like "X-Men, with Jennifer Lawrence" than "Jennifer Lawrence in X-Men."
Seconded to the Warcraft trailer playing to stone cold silence. It ran in pretty much a rowdy full house and there was tangibly zero enthusiasm.
When most of the cinema that night looked 18-35, thats a big fucking problem.
Movies make most of their gross in a few weeks. Days made most of its gross by the time the third weekend hit in 2014. In its first three weeks, it had Maleficent, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, 22 Jump Street, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 to contend with. All movies that grossed over $100 million domestically, with Maleficent grossing over $200 million, and 22 Jump Street grossing almost $200 million. But it had already reached just short of $200 million by the third weekend.I don't think the audience is growing 7 X-Men films in. I just think they've hit their peak and overall competition is stronger than this year than 2014. TMNT, Warcraft, Central Intelligence, Dory, ID4, The Conjuring 2 are all potential $100M movies.
To be fair that's the same reaction I've noticed with every BvS trailer shown. Maybe it's hard to judge people's excitement.
Movies make most of their gross in a few weeks. Days made most of its gross by the time the third weekend hit in 2014. In its first three weeks, it had Maleficent, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, 22 Jump Street, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 to contend with. All movies that grossed over $100 million domestically, with Maleficent grossing over $200 million, and 22 Jump Street grossing almost $200 million. But it had already reached just short of $200 million by the third weekend.
Central Intelligence, Finding Dory, and ID4 are coming 3-4 weeks after Apocalypse. They're going to hurt it but at that stage, it matters a lot less and is no different than usual in these months. Apocalypse will have made most of its gross at that stage. This year it has TMNT, The Conjuring 2, and Warcraft to contend with. It's probably got it a little easier if anything compared to 2014.
Assuming Apocalypse is going to have a tough time hitting $200 million doesn't have much to do with its audience growing. You're pretty much assuming a lot less people are going to show up even though the franchise is better positioned today than it was in 2014. The real unknown is whether Jackman's absence hurts it.
That'd make more sense.What I mean to say is Apocalypse doing $200M is more likely than approaching $300M. If I had to throw a random prediction out there, I'll say $225M. I absolutely don't think it surpasses DOFP.
It's interesting in that Wolverine on his own hasn't been box office dynamite, but Wolverine in an X-Men movie is.I think Jackman is still the biggest draw for the franchise, and it's why I'm curious to see this movie's domestic gross, but brand does matter. I'm expecting around $250 million since Days did really well, but I want to be surprised.
That'd make more sense.
But if Apocalypse grossed $225 million and missed out on passing Days by $8 million, then you should put up a twerk video regardless. It's like you cursed the movie at that stage. The only explanation for such fuckery.
I'll keep this post in mind should that happen. And I won't forget Chamber. I never forget when I decide to remember.
Ryan Reynolds must feel like a fucking rock star right now. Good for him, he earned this one.
Not to be overly defensive of studio executives, but I wouldn't say the case for a Deadpool was that obvious a slam dunk. Plenty of people were wary of its commercial potential, and its performance has exceeded anyone's reasonable estimation.The people at Fox much feel like idiots for not green lighting this movie sooner.
I it really? Origins was awful. Like Green Lantern bad. That movie grossed what it id purely on Jackman and the character.It's interesting in that Wolverine on his own hasn't been box office dynamite, but Wolverine in an X-Men movie is.
Why would the X-Men franchise suddenly drop to First Class levels (adjusted for inflation) despite the very positive reception of DOFP?X-Men: Apocalypse - 168M
Wow. Optimistic. Particularly 3.Summer box office predicts? Okay...
Finding Dory - 418M
Captain America: Civil War - 414M
Suicide Squad - 398M
.
Why would the X-Men franchise suddenly drop to First Class levels (adjusted for inflation) despite the very positive reception of DOFP?
It's getting more measurable social media buzz than DOFP was at this point in the leadup to its release.Marketing has been fairly blah and seeing the release date is pretty terrible and crowded, I don't see it doing so hot. I wouldn't mind for it to do better though.
It isn't summer, but throw Batman v Superman in there.Summer box office predicts? Okay...
Finding Dory - 418M
Captain America: Civil War - 414M
Suicide Squad - 398M
The Secret Life of Pets - 279M
Independence Day Resurgence - 74M/245M
Jason Bourne - 230M
Star Trek Beyond - 183M
Ghostbusters - 180M
X-Men: Apocalypse - 168M
The BFG - 161M
Alice Through the Looking Glass - 148M
Central Intelligence - 144M
Neighbors 2 - 123M
Warcraft - 117M
That's what I'm feeling right now.
Deadpool's doing sweet by the way. Zoolander 2 deserves to bomb. Might catch Risen over Spring Break tbh.
Not to be overly defensive of studio executives, but I wouldn't say the case for a Deadpool was that obvious a slam dunk. Plenty of people were wary of its commercial potential, and its performance has exceeded anyone's reasonable estimation.
It isn't summer, but throw Batman v Superman in there.
I'm glad we don't ever have to hear that "SUPERHERO FATIGUE!!!" crap ever again.
Summer box office predicts? Okay...
Finding Dory - 418M
Captain America: Civil War - 414M
Suicide Squad - 398M
The Secret Life of Pets - 279M
Independence Day Resurgence - 74M/245M
Jason Bourne - 230M
Star Trek Beyond - 183M
Ghostbusters - 180M
X-Men: Apocalypse - 168M
The BFG - 161M
Alice Through the Looking Glass - 148M
Central Intelligence - 144M
Neighbors 2 - 123M
Warcraft - 117M
That's what I'm feeling right now.
Deadpool's doing sweet by the way. Zoolander 2 deserves to bomb. Might catch Risen over Spring Break tbh.
Certain franchises will be hit with audience fatigue, but the genre as a whole doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
I'm glad we don't ever have to hear that "SUPERHERO FATIGUE!!!" crap ever again.
I find it funny how overly optimistic you're for Suicide Squad. I honestly doubt it will do that much but who knows.
Now seeing how you expect Apocalypse to only sell 168M is just weird.
Yup. I'm Avenger fatigued out on that whole cast of characters and franchise. Excited for other newer comic movies though.
Suicide Squad is going to make ridiculous amounts of money.
Joker & Batman aside - Wait'll they get that hit of Harley Quinn. The embracing of Deadpool is only good news for both the character and that movie.
I could see Star Wars getting a second run before the new movie comes out.
And that kills my Blu Ray hopes
No Wolverine in Apocalypse? I think that movie will under perform.
I remember everyone just assuming he'd be one of the horsemen.
NOPE!
Jackman wants to wrap things up, and the franchise has to move on from him in order to remain viable; devoting tons of screentime to Wolverine when they need to establish all the new characters who will be carrying the franchise going forward is counterproductive. Jackman wanted one more Wolverine film, and that's what he's doing.Not having Logan as a Horsemen is one of those mind numbingly bad decisions that keep plaguing this franchise.
does it not look better for deadpool coming off of a holiday weekend?
Jackman wants to wrap things up, and the franchise has to move on from him in order to remain viable; devoting tons of screentime to Wolverine when they need to establish all the new characters who will be carrying the franchise going forward is counterproductive. Jackman wanted one more Wolverine film, and that's what he's doing.
Kinda surprised the race didn't finish higher. Hopefully it has decent legs.
Lawrence is almost certainly gone. McAvoy and Fassbender have said they're open to continuing, and the plan is pretty obviously to keep McAvoy, at a minimum, with the newbie X-Men (whether or not Magneto comes back is something you can easily write around, since he's not an X-Man).Dont they lose Fass, McCoy, and Jlaw after this one too?