ProfessorMoran
Member
The banks most likely don't want to move, and France and Germany might want to keep them happy.
At the end of the day it's politicians negotiating with politicians, nobody wants to rock the boat too much.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Spring Drive
- Start date
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The banks most likely don't want to move, and France and Germany might want to keep them happy.
At the end of the day it's politicians negotiating with politicians, nobody wants to rock the boat too much.
I see things are still testy here. Hopefully a week from now the market and people will have cooled down.
Things are going to be okay!
I keep saying it as well, but until parliament comes out next week and says, we are going and lets all get together to work out a way forward...I expect the angst to continue
Bobnob
Member
Good stuff! did you even vote ?
Monument Metro station. I could be there to look around in about 10 minutes if I wanted but with my Asian heritage I'm not sire that's a good idea. And here I thought that Newcastle voting Remain was at least one thing not to get depressed about.not by me, just to clear
While what you say is true, I'd also say leaving the EU is pretty much rocking the boat too much for the financial sector. The banks don't want to move, but they sure as hell don't want this uncertainty either.
How much of a choice would banks have? They're definitely not bigger than the state in either example.
I think you're not quite seeing it from the other side's point of view.
What the hell are you talking about. We're not leaving the EU because the people who want to (far right/left) don't have enough power to be in charge of such a decision, and that's not gonna change soon. They've been going on about leaving the EU for years.
Given that most countries of the EU still haven't recovered from 2008, they do have a lot to loose too. They'll definitively try to keep the UK in the single market, and I think the UK will want that too (who wouldn't?).
The chunk of the negotiation will be about the amount UK will have to pay, which laws they'll have to respect and what say they'll have about new ones, and the financial passports.
geordiemp
Member
The German starting point has probably been leaked intentionally - I would not surprised if Uk and Germany have already discussed this eventuality and have discussed how to do a win-win with starting and end game positions.
Would also not be surprised if the Cameron delay and resignation was also pre-planned in the leave outcome scenario, and maybe the bad guy / nice guy roles in EU/ Germany as well were decided many months ago...
Maybe you could be right and they are all just floating by the seat of their pants, in which case LOL,
However, I dont believe a win-lose scenario from either side is likely and would float.
You're one of those people that just believes whatever they want to believe. You ignore the experts and make up conspiracy theories so you can tell yourself they're wrong.
PJV3
Member
What you said makes no sense. That's like punching someone, and then when they punch you back you then say "see, they deserved it for punching me"
Can Crusher
Banned
I'm not mad about about this. Hopefully UK leaving will push EU to improve itself for all its members. This is an opportunity for EU to evolve in the right place. Obviously I don't know if that will happen, and there's a fear that this creates an opportunity for even more austerity like a certain German loves
And yes, UK deserves a shit deal. That's not punishment, it's simple logic, otherwise might as well tear down the EU right now.
And yes, UK deserves a shit deal. That's not punishment, it's simple logic, otherwise might as well tear down the EU right now.
They're opposite a pro-immigration protest, as far as most reports go, so you'd probably be fine. Didn't actually see them myself when I was out and about in the Toon earlier, I have to admit (Though was amused to see several of the currency conversion places hadn't even bothered switching their displays on this morning)
Bobnob
Member
I read earlier that 53% of the french want a referendum and that figure is gaining traction, whatever tho! Britain just did you a good deed.
ProfessorMoran
Member
US, Japan and China are all major players.
Germany and France are 81 million and 66 million respectively, the UK population is nothing to sneeze at, they're not Norway or Greece, neither Germany nor France would want the UK to fall into a bad recession, because it's going to drag the entire region into a recession and is detrimental to everyone, and governments are going to fall and politicians are going to pay, and none of them will want that.
ProfessorMoran
Member
Nobody wants uncertainty, which is why I think they will try to work things out as quickly as possible, because there will be a lot of pressure from major corporations to do so.
If anything France and Germany will be the last two countries still standing.
What many don't realize/know, the EU or it's predecessors were founded to unite these two countries in peace and frienship after hundreds of years of hate and wars.
Thankfully random french people don't get to decide when we hold a referendum.
Also wanting a referendum != wanting out of the EU.
ProfessorMoran
Member
UK already did by not using the Euro.
Turn up to every meeting like a footballer leaving the coach at a cup final - huge beats headphones on and just don't take them off, say a word or look anyone else in the eye.
Darkstorne
Member
I wasn't attacking you. I was amazed that the guy responding to you by agreeing that classing all Leave voters as racists is silly, managed to accuse all vote Remain voters of believing all Leave voters are racists.
I hope that makes sense, I know the sentence doesn't read very well but I'm very tired right now.
Monty Mole
Member
Almost half the electorate voted Remain. A Norway type deal is a half-way house, for a divided electorate.
Seems like the worst of both worlds, but we are where we are.
You are underestimating the German-French relations. We would do anything to defend our Deutsch-Französische Freundschaft. If France leaves, Germany leaves as well.
31GhostsIV
Banned
So you're sticking it to Cameron and Parliament... by voting leave and ensuring a more right wing version of the same government is in power by the year's end, with no EU to reign in their fuckery?
Slow fucking clap. Bravo.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
After reading up on this a whole lot, I am increasingly getting the feeling that a British exit will never actually happen. It seems like it's way too legally complicated to actually carry out and that very few MPs are actually interested in going through with it. It's clear that an actual exit will tear apart the UK at this point. For parliament to go ahead with an exit despite having that knowledge would be crazy. The vote was for the United Kingdom to leave the EU, not just for England to do so.
SporeCrawler
Member
EU sans UK has about 440 Million. And if UK falls into a recession than thats the fault of the UK government. They cant blame the EU for that anymore.
Not unless the contributions are substantial and freedom of movement is accepted. Highly doubt it though since that would basically mean the same as the EU membership for UK, just that they will not be able to vote on anything (basically a EU dictatorship).
no its happening. the remaining european members will force it one way or another
Yup. I'd certainly like this if we have to leave the EU, but it's worse than what we had before and nothing will happen about keeping foreign people out as we'll need some freedom of movement, so it would basically have been all for nothing.
Frankfurter
Member
Sure it would. Would the UK accept that kind of a deal is the more interesting question, considering what the leave campaign said.
ProfessorMoran
Member
If France leaves, the EU is kaput, Germany wouldn't want to subsidize all the have-not countries all by their lonesome. UK might have already gotten that ball rolling, kind of like when John left the Beattles.
Alx
Member
You must have missed in the same report that more than 51% clearly stated they wanted to stay in EU, and only 20% would vote to leave.
Part of the 53% asking for the referendum must want to make clear they're in favour of EU, not against it.
MassiveNights
Banned
There's a suggestion that any exit agreement with the EU could require consent from the Scottish Parliament.
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/746741523522400256
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/746741523522400256
It is not a half-way house but an absolutely shit deal. The Norwegian government absolutely hates it because they have to accept a load of laws without having any say in them. In fact, rather than 'taking back control' it would be the absolute opposite - we would have less control.
then it is up to the UK then, hopefully negotiations start ASAP before companies start leaving
I see no reason why not.
On the ifnancial point, they'd be happy to make a net profit on the fees, they'd still have access to the UK market, the huge financial sector would have to at least partially come to the continent (or Dublin), and the UK wouldn't interfere in EU internal politics.
Why did Norway accept this deal actually? It's honestly not that good.
Darkstorne
Member
I feel for you. I really do. But you've just voted to make things even worse for yourself and everyone else in this position. The same government is in power, and thanks to a weaker economy (that you were warned about countless times) the cuts are now going to get worse. And we've either got a second recession on the way or huge inflation to stave it off. Either way life is about to get more difficult, because you couldn't separate a vote for EU membership from a vote on government elections.
You may THINK you were voting for change, but you really haven't.
ProfessorMoran
Member
If UK falls into a recession it's going to suck for the rest of Europe, and those governments will be held responsible as well because there are going to be a ton of unhappy electorates.
This isn't about whose fault this is. Brexit happened, all the politicians are going to try to make the best situation out of this so they don't lose their jobs.
Why not? The UK still pays, most EU legislations still will be adhered to, free movement of people still continues and on top of that the UK has no say whatsoever over it. So no more bitching in the EU parliament anymore.
Remain voters will be appeased...but Leave voters will be furious finding out they've been played and are actually getting a worse deal, lol.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
There's a suggestion that any exit agreement with the EU could require consent from the Scottish Parliament.
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/746741523522400256
Makes sense. I imagine there are going to be a ton of things like this that can be used to veto the whole thing discovered in the next few weeks.
PJV3
Member
Poor old Cameron.
He has provided some good entertainment over the years.
Pig fucker and now Fugitive Prime minister.
The EU has all the leverage.
Ripping away passporting rights would cause the bulk of financial services jobs to move out of this country to the continent.
It is such a huge ace that they have it literally trumps everything else many times over. You are talking £100bn tax revenue.
Moreover that sector will be heavily lobbying the government (whoever it maybe) to bend over to the EU's demands to be able to keep the passport.
This is basic logic. I feel like I'm in some sort of bizzaro world.
My firm already sent us an email on Friday confirming they are evaluating our position with respect to the London office. Some people were told they have to move to Geneva.
Ripping away passporting rights would cause the bulk of financial services jobs to move out of this country to the continent.
It is such a huge ace that they have it literally trumps everything else many times over. You are talking £100bn tax revenue.
Moreover that sector will be heavily lobbying the government (whoever it maybe) to bend over to the EU's demands to be able to keep the passport.
This is basic logic. I feel like I'm in some sort of bizzaro world.
My firm already sent us an email on Friday confirming they are evaluating our position with respect to the London office. Some people were told they have to move to Geneva.
ProfessorMoran
Member
Norway has only 5 million people, it's not that big of an economy and thus they don't have much leverage, the UK will get a much better deal if not simply because they have 13 times the population and is a way larger economy.
Its a parody at this point.
PdotMichael
Banned
Absolutely the uk would pay more for membership and they'd be free of the uks constant wingeing and threats of veto
The U.K. would be a voiceless partner it's a win win for Germany and France
What's clear to anyone who's paid attention is that the U.K. Isn't getting and deal substantially better than that
Even Tory leavers are starting to move the conversation towards eea and what that entails
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