Mighty Chin
Banned
I don't believe for one sec that Romney Won that debate. At the very least it was a tie. Giving him the win because he held his own is not winning.
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Clinton piles up research in preparation for debate, while Trump does what Trump does
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Theonik
Member
I think that's what the Clinton campaign's fantasy is as well.
...and from much smarter people than The Orange One.
minor effort
Banned
Doesn't matter. The larger perception and narrative was that Romney won that first debate despite whether you personally thought he did. It's not like there were a panel of judges who decide an official winner, it's just what the takeaway is.
I'm not worried about the debate itself, I'm sure Clinton will win. I would be a bit concerned if Trump marginally outperforms his extremely low bar of expectations and people talk up what a "good job" he did.
Born in the Chicago land area and became a politican because she believed in helping children and has done so since she was in her teens. She gets bonus points from me because she is a Cubs fan
sturgboski
Member
I just hope the moderators can handle Trump and tell him to shut up and act like an adult while he sits their name calling, yelling outlandish things and the like because that is all he can do.
Eaten By A Grue
Member
I was thinking this exact same thing. For some reason I have a feeling he will not be able to contain himself.
Version 3.0
Member
I don't like to admit Romney won that debate, either, but he did get a bump in the polls and lead Obama for a time.
But maybe I should give Romney more credit. It's one thing to win a debate when the facts are on your side. It's another to outright, shamelessly lie through the whole thing and come out with a win.
Speaking of which: it sure would be nice if fact check stories would stop giving equal time to both candidates. They find 3 things that each person said that weren't 100% true, or maybe just require a little clarification, and it always looks like they're both stretching or cherry-picking a little. Republicans don't give a shit about fact checking (or facts in general), so stop fucking pandering and present actual factual fact checking: Hillary will be 90+% truthful, and Donald will be 10% coherent lies and 90% incoherent blustering bullshit.
The simple thing to why many considered Obama to have lost was simply because he wasn't mentally there to verbally kick Romney down. Everyone was used to seeing Obama cleverly explain his points, policies and out-wit Romey with a smooth smile
...that didn't just happen.
To contrast, check him in the 2nd debate like that powerful line, "Please proceed govenor," or "Get the transcript". Obama was actively a lot more energized.
...that didn't just happen.
To contrast, check him in the 2nd debate like that powerful line, "Please proceed govenor," or "Get the transcript". Obama was actively a lot more energized.
Boombloxer
Member
Yea, everyone thought Romney won, had "Mittmentum", etc. It was correct too, Obama lost that first debate, and was on the phone afterwards explaining to some peeps what happened.
Then Biden dropped an elbow.
Then Obama returned to form in the last 2--the second in particular was the one that people remember. The 3rd was a quiet curbstomp.
I don't expect that here because Romney actually did prep, some of his answers legit surprised Obama. He prepared, Bams did not, and it showed.
A few questions over sandwiches isn't debate prep.
DeviantBoi
Member
I wish the debates had real-time fact-checking. On your TV, you would see a line graph showing how truthful the candidate is being.
Who cares what Joe Shmo thinks. I want fact-checking.
Who cares what Joe Shmo thinks. I want fact-checking.
Shit talking becomes way less effective when there's no audience to go
after each stupid thing you say and when there's a moderator, though.
How I see it going:
- Moderator lets both sides know about the time limit and the rebuttal. Asks both sides not to speak out of turn.
- Trump breaks rules within the first hour of the debate. Will talk out of turn constantly and take twice as long answering some questions than should be given.
- Debate ends and Hillary will reach for a handshake. Trump blows her off.
- Outlets favoring the right will say Trump won for being agressive and for being a radical by not playing by the rules.
- Hillary takes a huge lead, but only because, according to Trump, all the real voters were watching football instead.
- Moderator lets both sides know about the time limit and the rebuttal. Asks both sides not to speak out of turn.
- Trump breaks rules within the first hour of the debate. Will talk out of turn constantly and take twice as long answering some questions than should be given.
- Debate ends and Hillary will reach for a handshake. Trump blows her off.
- Outlets favoring the right will say Trump won for being agressive and for being a radical by not playing by the rules.
- Hillary takes a huge lead, but only because, according to Trump, all the real voters were watching football instead.
First hour? Shit, I won't even give him ten minutes.
Can't wait for the debates, though, this is gonna be pure entertainment.
neurosisxeno
Member
Romney didn't win the debate based on substance, Obama lost because he wasn't sure what Romney was going to show up. Romney changed his stances drastically between the beginning and end of the primaries, and by the end he was a hardline Conservative. Obama wasn't sure whether he should plan on going in on a Conservative Romney, or a Moderate Romney, because he wasn't sure which one he would be against. It was only the first half hour that Obama looked like a complete mess, and that's the most crucial timeframe to do well. By the middle it was clear he was debating Moderate Romney, and he knew how to deal with him.
Shit talking becomes way less effective when there's no audience to go
after each stupid thing you say and when there's a moderator, though.
The equivalent of an audience these days is Twitter, where liberals are now more dominant. Media members see the reactions live in their feeds, and it (subconsciously or not) helps in forming a narrative by the end of the live event that's happening.
A decent example:
Tim Kaine's VP acceptance speech. It was probably an average speech, certainly not a Michelle Obama or Joe Biden-tier speech. But by the time Twitter was done with Kaine, he was already transformed into "America's Dad." It was an affable reputation to leave the evening with. He could've been remembered for his goofy "Believe me!" Trump impersonation, but instead there were jokes aplenty about him taking kids out for ice cream, him leaving inspirational post-it notes on your desk, etc. Twitter did him a solid favor.
My prediction for the debates:
Liberal twitter is going to be out in force. It's going to be Hillary vs Big, Bad Trump. By the end of the debate, assuming that Hillary doesn't bomb, Twitter will be all over one or two anti-Trump moments (not necessarily out of love for Hillary, but more out of dislike or hate for Trump). The media is going to take notice, and they're going to run with it, helping to create the narrative exiting those events.
That would only improve his opinion polls.
Hmmm. I'm thinking he might be planning to not show, and is thus not expending resources. Or he's just gonna wing it, haha.
uncredited male
Member
He still has not committed to these yet.
Yeah and Clinton isnt a super strong public speaker especially next to Trump
ryutaro's mama
Member
And then the Governor proceeded to get his ass handed to him in 2 straight debates and never recovered.
And in the end, no one will remember Mitt "winning" Game 1 of the Finals.
Also, this. Hi Boombloxer!
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Smells like a lot of confirmation bias in this thread. It's very hard to predict what will actually happen and what we want to happen, and there's been enough curveballs this season to make me think whatever will happen will be at least slightly different from what most people think will happen.
Which is nice to see at least one side is taking this seriously and preparing.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Best predictor of the future tends to be the past so it's not so much confirmation bias as it is going off of what we have seen to this point.
minor effort
Banned
In Clinton's case it would be far more damaging for her to have the first debate considered a loss to Trump. That would be much harder for her to shake, given that he's not expected to win (or possibly even attend) these debates. Losing a debate to someone like Romney wouldn't be nearly as embarrassing as losing a debate to someone like Trump.
Fortunately, that's not likely to happen.
minor effort
Banned
You're right. The lid's about to be torn off this Clinton machine.
Dirty, Bearded Vince Foster Bursts Through Doors Of Clinton Fundraiser
It's bedtime for all of Bill and Hillary's lies now!
I've only seen low energy Trump when he's using a teleprompter, so hopefully no.
I mean, right? That was the first time I watched a debate as someone who has really been posting full attention from the start of the primaries, and I came expecting the wine to be the person who best argued their points. Nope. It's the person who lays the biggest smackdown, or series expectations or yadayada...
For that reason, I think the first one is the most likely to be a Trump win. As long as he can refrain from insulting cancer patients, the narrative is going to be, "Trump campaign on the upswing!"
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Well it shouldn't be hard to bait Trump. Guy is chomping at the bit to say something snarky or inflammatory.
romney had the better delivery and presence. he seemed more energetic and like he actually wanted the job. obama on the other hand seemed tired and was on the defensive in a negative way. afterwards, liberals only had '...but... big bird...!' to fall back on. it was weak.
obama woke up for the second debate and his defense was a good offense (the well-remembered 'please proceed, governor'). this was also when the 'binders full of women' comment from romney was proclaimed. the third debate was obama spouting off snappy one-liners and the obama campaign pushing out websites during the debate based on obama's responses (battleships and bayonets).
This, right here. Romney's answers were full of shit but he looked energetic. Obama wasn't. It's shallow of us to judge, but perception plays a big part.
rokkerkory
Member
Rip him to shreds
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
I think it all comes down to who's going to moderate and how much they're going to let Trump control the pace of the debate.
He doesn't need substance if he's allowed to lie with impunity and can just talk over Clinton.
He doesn't need substance if he's allowed to lie with impunity and can just talk over Clinton.
probably just a binder with a picture of marla maples from 1985 under it
Barrylocke
Member
Looking forward to all the best clips of Trump getting creamed next month.
Lord Frieza
Member
Wut?
If he "wins" the first debate, maybe he'll refuse to debate again, because he might lose the next debate.
User 463088
Banned
Just read all the pages of the thread., and a couple things came to mind.
One, Obama lost the first debate against Romney. Like, he did. And that's okay. Obama is an eh debater. He always has been. Like he himself said, the best he could do over their thirty million debates in 2008 was draw with Hillary. Hillary is goooood at debating because she's a policy wonk. The minutia of policy is her jam.
Two: Trump is not a good debater, even if I want to pretend that a primary debate is somehow equal to a GE debate. Trump's method was to throw out something insane/insulting, and then retreat back and let the other candidates out cray-cray themselves in an attempt to stop what he had done. That's not something Hillary will do.
Three: Hillary is the perfect person to debate Trump. She's dealt with idiots like this her entire life. She's not going to have a meltdown if he calls (or insinuates) that she's a bitch. She will not get into the gutter with him. It's not her style, nor is it what she does. Like, Hillary wants this bad. She's wanted this bad for a while. This is all some ego exercise for Trump.
Finally, the structure of the debates do not work for Trump. He'll be given 60 or 90 seconds to answer a question. Now, you can fill that with policy...but that requires you to have policy. Trump does not. He's not interested in learning it. Because he uses the same phrases over and over again, it's easy to get a good barb in. The first time he uses the phrase "believe me" you hit him back with "But we don't believe you, Donald." Because, at that point, one of two things happens: he uses it again (and you hit him with it again) or he becomes paranoid about his word choices and just goes off on a tangent. Hell, just watch his interview with Anderson Cooper the other day. It made no sense. This is going to have millions of eyes on it at once.
One, Obama lost the first debate against Romney. Like, he did. And that's okay. Obama is an eh debater. He always has been. Like he himself said, the best he could do over their thirty million debates in 2008 was draw with Hillary. Hillary is goooood at debating because she's a policy wonk. The minutia of policy is her jam.
Two: Trump is not a good debater, even if I want to pretend that a primary debate is somehow equal to a GE debate. Trump's method was to throw out something insane/insulting, and then retreat back and let the other candidates out cray-cray themselves in an attempt to stop what he had done. That's not something Hillary will do.
Three: Hillary is the perfect person to debate Trump. She's dealt with idiots like this her entire life. She's not going to have a meltdown if he calls (or insinuates) that she's a bitch. She will not get into the gutter with him. It's not her style, nor is it what she does. Like, Hillary wants this bad. She's wanted this bad for a while. This is all some ego exercise for Trump.
Finally, the structure of the debates do not work for Trump. He'll be given 60 or 90 seconds to answer a question. Now, you can fill that with policy...but that requires you to have policy. Trump does not. He's not interested in learning it. Because he uses the same phrases over and over again, it's easy to get a good barb in. The first time he uses the phrase "believe me" you hit him back with "But we don't believe you, Donald." Because, at that point, one of two things happens: he uses it again (and you hit him with it again) or he becomes paranoid about his word choices and just goes off on a tangent. Hell, just watch his interview with Anderson Cooper the other day. It made no sense. This is going to have millions of eyes on it at once.
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