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[Schrödinger's cat]

Right now, the biggest risk I can think of Phil taking would be to strut around in a Platinum Games t-shirt at the next E3 conference.

 

[d9b]

I wonder how much power he really has.

The power of sugarcoating PR.

 

[Tecnniqe]

MS has the least diversity out of the big 3 for sure, and they rely on the same old, same old franchises. I doubt much will change but would like to be proven wrong.

But every time they do something new nobody buys it?

Right now, the biggest risk I can think of Phil taking would be to strut around in a Platinum Games t-shirt at the next E3 conference.

Uncle Phils E3 t-shirt guessing game is the best.

 

[Iacobellis]

What about 360? Did they drop that immediately after Xbox One launched? Oh, no they didn't.

What's the best thing to do here? Judge them on ten years ago with a different head or three years ago with the current leadership team?

How many major first party titles did the 360 get in 2013, as well as after?

 

[Apathy]

But every time they do something new nobody buys it?

Uncle Phils E3 t-shirt guessing game is the best.

So they should stop trying and just accept that their machine is a gears/halo/forza player with shared third party games?

 

[Salty Rice]

But every time they do something new nobody buys it?

To be fair their new IPs they pushing out are either mediocre and/or have forgettable characters nobody really cares about.

 

[Nightengale]

But every time they do something new nobody buys it?

Luck is part and parcel in the game of hits.

I mean, there is probably an alternate reality out there where Bungie released Destiny as a MS Studios game and MS would probably be one of the champions of the co-op MMO-lite shooter space.

 

[WaterAstro]

But every time they do something new nobody buys it?

You mean like... how Bungie left and made Destiny because they were tied down to Halo? Then Destiny sold tons?

Yeah MS doesn't know what to do lol.

 

[Tecnniqe]

So they should stop trying and just accept that their machine is a gears/halo/forza player with shared third party games?

No... but from their point of view they probably see the cancelled games as mediocre and not selling enough combined with the probability of other issues during development and a money sink causing what just happened but as to say the don't try is wrong.

They have tried. They do try. It's not been a huge success for them lately so obviously they will push their selling franchises as what they see is "these sell and those don't".

That's not to say they should stop and I don't think they will, but it's easily understandable to see why it is how it is.

To be fair their new IPs they pushing out are either mediocre and/or have forgettable characters nobody really cares about.

Sure, but they're still trying so as to just write it off as Halo/Forza/Gears is a bit silly.

They're trying and there does exist games outside them, but not to the established franchises sales.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

With their 2 big tent pole franchises underperforming these days they really need to find big new IPs from their first party. The thing is I think they over relied on Halo and Gears for too long and never found or did anything else in the 360 days to help them this gen. but going forward with those franchises on a heavy decline they need something new right here and now ready to really blossom for the next gen.

But here in year 4 where really they should be firing on all cylinders like Sony, they seem to have taken a back seat and the line up looks thin on the ground. It hasn't helped that the XBone hasn't took off as well as the 360 and they really limited their market.

 

[Floody]

They need at least 1 more AAA studio, one that's not tied to an already existing I.P. Outside of Rare, nothing from them is surprising or (for me) exciting. They try with 3rd party, but MS don't really seem to care unless they blow up and the game becomes an instant hit, which rarely happens on the 1st entry.

 

[Back-In-Black]

People didn't buy them. Not going to make sequels of games that don't sell.

Yet, Sony supported ND after UC1, supported all three Resistance games, supported all the Killzone games and now Horizon, Demon Souls, Bloodborne, I could go on. These series or developers on their own did not set the sales charts on fire initially. It took continued support before many of them took off and some never really did. I'm sure QB made back its investment but to MS a ROI is not good enough, if a series doesn't achieve Gears or Halo numbers initially then they consider it a failure and drop it for good. You can't get an Uncharted 2 if you aren't willing to spend the time and money to cultivate a franchise. It's the difference between short and long term gains. MS tends to think short term, Sony long term.

 

[Zeuanimals]

Videogame companies are ALL risk adverse now. I've since quit the game industry but I'll try to describe the way it currently boils down.

You MUST have a working playable demo of your game no matter what. You can have 100 years of game dev experience, you can have shipped and designed hit titles, you can have the smartest people, you can have confirmed sales, you can even have a brand history, but NONE of that matters if you don't have a demo of your latest game. I have seen this happen to start up developers in the Vancouver area and even with tech behind them they have not been able to secure industry funding.

This means that you and whoever you are working with have to pay out of your own pocket to build the project to get it in a playable state. This can take 3 months to however long it is going to take. Due to this, game content and concept is going to scale to that challenge which isn't a good thing because anything of a larger scale isn't ever going to be made in demo time.

Once this is done you need the connections to get this demo in front of people, which is actually very easy now. However your game concept is going to be judged against the monthly changing sands of whatever is currently popular or whatever direction the company and industry is interested in going in. Fair enough, but the last 5 years has seen a massive rise in Twitch and Youtubers and therefor game design shifted to appeal to concepts that appealed to this kind of visibility. Also monetization changed so fast and so drastically that biz plans quickly became redundant. Big companies are particularly frustrating with idea and platform of the moment biz decisions.

It is also best to be running Kickstarters and get into early access and do all kinds of work not on the game, but surrounding the game so your social is on point. Before your game is out you have to build a story around your game so people care about your game in advance. Never surprise release a game ever (see Smash + Grab)

Now some games HAVE been able to be SUPER SUCCESFUL without having to jump through these hoops and just have personal hustle to make it big. I get that. Those are anomalies in the grand scheme of game dev which sees hundreds of new games on a variety of platforms out every week. Traditional paid development through the regular publishing model is vanishing mostly due to games as a service serving branded titles with long tails which are better developed and controlled under the roof of the publisher.

Publishers would rather sit back, wait for demos or near complete games to land on their lap and then make a creative and business decision rather than take any kind of gamble on an unknown best guess of design. It makes perfect sense for them and due to the rise in tools like Unity they have no shortage of people willing to grind unpaid for a chance at a deal.

This is my take from my experience working in the game industry and talking with others struggling at the moment for publishing deals.

I dunno. Sony giving Kojima everything on a silver platter seems to go against this. Guerrilla literally put their engine's source code in a wooden box and begged Kojima to use it and Sony was cool with it. Maybe it's unique to Kojima but still.

 

[kadotsu]

Let's, once again (again), take what Spencer says at face value, it still doesn't mean that this board in particular will like the risks they'll be taking. With the current direction every new IP will be multiplayer focused, service oriented and low on asset overhead. That means MOBAs, competitive card games, town builders (Clash of Clans like), arena shooters with heroes and random drops and multiplayer loot ARPGs with a premium economy.

All of those games will have a high asset cost/return of investment ratio. You get money for every character model, card or item and only need to create a limited amount of environmental assets. The long singleplayer campaign will be completely gone, replaced with grind and more grind. It's good for me because I will be able to ignore the platform but it might suck for the people that thought they'll get a new Lost Odyssey, Banjo or Crimson Sky. And if a beloved title makes a return it will have microtransaction stink on it, like Viva Pinata with a real money candy store and Garden Boost packs.

 

[Chindogg]

I dunno. Sony giving Kojima everything on a silver platter seems to go against this. Guerrilla literally put their engine's source code in a wooden box and begged Kojima to use it and Sony was cool with it. Maybe it's unique to Kojima but still.

That's the reason why. Kojima could technically shit in a box and Sony/Kojima fans would sell it out instantly. He's arguably the highest profile developer that doesn't work for Nintendo.

 

[Floody]

I dunno. Sony giving Kojima everything on a silver platter seems to go against this. Guerrilla literally put their engine's source code in a wooden box and begged Kojima to use it and Sony was cool with it. Maybe it's unique to Kojima but still.

That's Kojima though, maybe a handful of devs have his level of pull and they all work at Nintendo.

 

[Apathy]

No... but from their point of view they probably see the cancelled games as mediocre and not selling enough combined with the probability of other issues during development causing what just happened but as to say the don't try is wrong.

They have tried. They do try. It's not been a huge success for them lately so obviously they will push their selling franchises as what they see is "these sell and those don't".

Sure, but they're still trying so as to just win it off as Halo/Forza/Gears is a bit silly.

They're trying and there does exist games outside them, but not to the established franchises sales.

But the thing is that it's very hard for a new IP to become a massive success on it's first try. Look at something like uncharted, started of slow, now is a huge seller. You do something, see how it does, see what people like, reiterate and build that stuff for the fans and build that base.

 

[Zeuanimals]

That's the reason why. Kojima could technically shit in a box and Sony/Kojima fans would sell it out instantly. He's arguably the highest profile developer that doesn't work for Nintendo.

It just goes against his second paragraph was all I was saying.

But I would like to know if first party devs or even high profile 3rd party devs have to deal with this. The PS4 game Dreams doesn't seem to be easy to demo and yet they've been allowed to work on it for years.

 

[Militaratus]

Suddenly as a show of how far they are willing to take risks, they announce Master Chief Collection for the PS4.

Nah, they'll probably will reintroduce their DRM plan again but then for the Scorpio. Which is fine if they told everyone ALL the details this time instead of dodging questions by snickering evily.

 

[Elfstruck]

Honestly, Microsoft actually do take risks with game such as Rise of Tomb Raider

TR is anything but risk.

 

[XANDER CAGE]

He also says he'll be more careful about when new titles are announced

https://twitter.com/XboxP3/status/819279461027745792

this dude is the head of a major product division and he talks like a high schooler who got a C on a math test

 

[illmatic22]

Dance puppet dance

 

[barit]

The last risky move from MS in the game biz was buying Mojang for freaking 2bn. I don't think MS knows what it really means to take some risks lol

 

[duckroll]

this dude is the head of a major product division and he talks like a high schooler who got a C on a math test

To be fair, it's Twitter. Most people devolve into kids on it, even professionals and politicians!

 

[Jaguar Victory]

Suddenly as a show of how far they are willing to take risks, they announce Master Chief Collection for the PS4.

Nah, they'll probably will reintroduce their DRM plan again but then for the Scorpio. Which is fine if they told everyone ALL the details this time instead of dodging questions by snickering evily.

Sea of Thieves is a risk. So is Phantom Dust. D4 was a (magical) risk and Crimson Dragon was poor but they tried the formula to see if it would gain steam.

They need to develop some single player experiences with great production values to boost their portfolio. Some gamers are more internally motivated and want solo experiences. Not everyone desires social gaming. (I love both)

 

[GHG]

this dude is the head of a major product division and he talks like a high schooler who got a C on a math test

"That's good learning for me."

Translation: please don't be too harsh on me as I fumble around learning how to do my job.

It's all fun and games apart from the part where millions of people bought a videogames console based on what he's said/shown and are now dissapointed.

 

[martino]

ok.

 

[XANDER CAGE]

To be fair, it's Twitter. Most people devolve into kids on it, even professionals and politicians!

100%, but I feel like this has the opposite effect of what's intended. "Oh well, learning experience!" isn't something I think looks great coming from someone who's been the head of a division for like what, three years? At a certain pay level I kind of don't think that flies.

 

[Matt]

Yet, Sony supported ND after UC1, supported all three Resistance games, supported all the Killzone games and now Horizon, Demon Souls, Bloodborne, I could go on. These series or developers on their own did not set the sales charts on fire initially. It took continued support before many of them took off and some never really did. I'm sure QB made back its investment but to MS a ROI is not good enough, if a series doesn't achieve Gears or Halo numbers initially then they consider it a failure and drop it for good. You can't get an Uncharted 2 if you aren't willing to spend the time and money to cultivate a franchise. It's the difference between short and long term gains. MS tends to think short term, Sony long term.

What in the world could possibly make you think that?

 

[GeordieMark]

"That's good learning for me."

Translation: please don't be too harsh on me as I fumble around learning how to do my job.

It's all fun and games apart from the part where millions of people bought a videogames console based on what he's said/shown and are now dissapointed.

Most of the people who own xboxes won't even be aware of the news about Scalebound, if they even knew it was coming in the first place. This stuff gets blown out of proportion on here and the majority of Xbox owners don't even know what a Phil Spencer is.

 

[JaseC]

100%, but I feel like this has the opposite effect of what's intended. "Oh well, learning experience!" isn't something I think looks great coming from someone who's been the head of a division for like what, three years? At a certain pay level I kind of don't think that flies.

You're not supposed to apply critical thinking but rather feel sorry for him. Spencer saying it's been a learning experience implies that he is disappointed in himself for failing to deliver on the best of intentions, which is all part of his "cool uncle who's a gamer for the gamers" persona that Microsoft began banking on after Mattrick was seen as too robotic and corporate-focused.

 

[duckroll]

100%, but I feel like this has the opposite effect of what's intended. "Oh well, learning experience!" isn't something I think looks great coming from someone who's been the head of a division for like what, three years? At a certain pay level I kind of don't think that flies.

That's the risk he's taking.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

What in the world could possibly make you think that?

I wanted to ask the same question.

 

[GHG]

Most of the people who own xboxes won't even be aware of the news about Scalebound, if they even knew it was coming in the first place. This stuff gets blown out of proportion on here and the majority of Xbox owners don't even know what a Phil Spencer is.

Oh I agree that most people who own xboxes won't know who he is or what Scalebound is

Spoiler

(was)

.

But then that's not who he's addressing on Twitter is it?

 

[Rymuth]

You're not supposed to apply critical thinking but rather feel sorry for him. Spencer saying it's been a learning experience implies that he is disappointed in himself for failing to deliver on the best of intentions, which is all part of his "cool uncle who's a gamer for the gamers" persona that Microsoft began banking on after Mattick was seen as too robotic and corporate-focused.

Basically - it's the equivalent of him going "Awww shucks, did I do that?" and you're supposed to go "D'ohohoho, you rapscallion, don't let me catch you do that again."

or in visual terms

 

[wapplew]

Sea of Thieves is a risk. So is Phantom Dust. D4 was a (magical) risk and Crimson Dragon was poor but they tried the formula to see if it would gain steam.

They need to develop some single player experiences with great production values to boost their portfolio. Some gamers are more internally motivated and want solo experiences. Not everyone desires social gaming. (I love both)

Sea of Thieves is chasing trend, those mutiplayer MMO lite doing hot in console and PC, it's a risk for Rare I give you that.
Forza is risk. A downward heading genre not making much money nowadays.

 

[dangeraaron10]

This "Phil's Risk" thing is going to ascend into meme-hood isn't it?

I'm glad to be here while history is being made.

 

[whatevermort]

Per GameSpot:


Makes me wonder what they're planning next. 'Risks' is a pretty vague word, but it can be big.

Makes me wonder just how bad shape Scalebound was actually in.

 

[Dremark]

So how did uncharted 1 get a sequel along with Knack of all games? Those games didnt set the work on fire, one sold very little it's first outing, the other sold alright for a launch title but was ripped apart criticly and yet both got sequels. Same goes for motorstorm pacific rift game did not sell great, and yet got a third game and couple spin offs.

You can't grow if you don't at least give it a shot and learn from it. They didn't learn anything by throwing in the towel after one game.

Uncharted 1 was a fairly high profile game. It didn't hit as hard as the second game did but it was an asset to the early PS3 library. I'd be very surprised if it didn't make a decent profit and no one seemed surprised they made a sequel.

Motorstorm PR and Knack were genuine surprise sequels though.

 

[panda-zebra]

Uncle Phil relaxed after a hard day tweetin' and riskin'...

 

[Floex]

It's too late. Games take time to develop, and they have nothing in their sleeves for the next 18 months. It's going to be another long year where Sony has big releases every other month and the Xbox is graced by more sprig name sequels for just three months of the year.

Microsofts decades long failure to invest and grow games developers is one of their biggest strikes against them. Even when they were riding high on the 360 and Kinect they still utterly failed to build anything for the future. Sony might produce some shit games, but at least they keep trying and taking risks.

(At this point, anything Phil says just needs to be ignored. He's a nice sounding guy who mouths platitudes but ultimately is a completely empty suit. How many times do we have to hear him say this crap before we realise it's just lies? He's becoming Molneux-Esc at this point).

Yep, was thinking similar thoughts. They need to come swinging with Scorpio but I can see them trying to score more 3rd parties for launch.

It's going to take a long time to get out of this mess.

 

[jelly]

His priority is Xbox Live subscriptions. He can throw small gem in there like Inside but no doubt the focus is getting people online and emptying their pockets with F2P mechanics.

 

[Back-In-Black]

Uncharted 1 was a fairly high profile game. It didn't hit as hard as the second game did but it was an asset to the early PS3 library. I'd be very surprised if it didn't make a decent profit and no one seemed surprised they made a sequel.

Motorstorm PR and Knack were genuine surprise sequels though.

UC1 only reached 1 million in sales 10 weeks after its launch, take from that what you will.

 

[SkyMasterson]

Makes me wonder just how bad shape Scalebound was actually in.

Me too. I mean, the game was development for at least three years. That's a lot of money.

Something wasn't going right with the development. Whether or not MS were meddling with it.

You also have to look at how the game trended(and maybe didn't focus test well) and MS just decided to cut their losses.

I'll be honest, I wasn't really looking forward to it, but definitely would have gotten it after a price drop because Kamiya is a legend.

 

[Zeuanimals]

So owning a game console is the same as marriage to you huh? That's a sad point of view.

How'd you even get that out of what he said? Lol. If you're able to be happy or even happier after something as heartbreaking as a divorce, then moving onto another gaming platform should be easy in comparison... Unless gaming is serious business to you then I don't know what to say.

 

[Raylan]

Me too. I mean, the game was development for at least three years. That's a lot of money.

Something wasn't going right with the development. Whether or not MS were meddling with it.

You also have to look at how the game trended(and maybe didn't focus test well) and MS just decided to cut their losses.

I'll be honest, I wasn't really looking forward to it, but definitely would have gotten it after a price drop because Kamiya is a legend.

Well, it seems like it was a singleplayer-only game. That was Kamiya's original plan. And then MS changed stuff and it received an online/multiplayer mode. It all went downhill from there.

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

this dude is the head of a major product division and he talks like a high schooler who got a C on a math test

You can only sound so intellectual in 140 characters man.

 

[Poster#1]

He said the same thing back in 2014...Not a good look for Xbox.

 

[Evolution of Metal]

Well, it seems like it was a singleplayer-only game. That was Kamiya's original plan. And then MS changed stuff and it received an online/multiplayer mode. It all went downhill from there.

PC and Crossplay, I couldn't imagine MS publishing a multiplayer game without those qualities.

 

[Lom1lo]

Well, it seems like it was a singleplayer-only game. That was Kamiya's original plan. And then MS changed stuff and it received an online/multiplayer mode. It all went downhill from there.

The very first trailer hinted at multiplayer, so this component was in from the beginning