Baron Doggystyle von Woof
Member
Putin wins.
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Predict the next 5 years of history if Le Pen becomes French President
- Thread starter Caipirinha
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KonradLaw
Member
Yeah. People have no idea how pathetic the shape of german army is right now. Two years ago during NATO excercises they had to use wooden sticks painted black as guns because they didn't have real ones
The French army that immediately surrendered.
KonradLaw
Member
Russia barely could handle annexation of Crimea. Even Ukraine alone would be way too much for them.
Highly unlikely but even if she did, FN would still loose hard in the legislative. So, no majority for her in the government = she can't do shit and will be a mild annoyance at best. She definitely won't have the power to leave the EU, lol.
Anyway, won't happen, we just don't have someone as divisive as Hilary to loose against her.
Anyway, won't happen, we just don't have someone as divisive as Hilary to loose against her.
If France votes in Le Pen, it's pretty obvious which way a referendum would go.
EU dead, countries becoming more entrenched in rhetoric, until these populists egos start fighting with each other (as they always do, friends at first.. until it becomes a race to the bottom and they find out other countries can also "DO what they do!" and impose sanctions, taxation and other crap.... then it becomes very much volatile.Someone assassinates someone... aaand you have war.
After abuot 5 years of this Football riot gone global (As that is what a war is), the species will calm down again and say :"wir habben es nicht gewust!" and act like they are Bonobos.... trying to hide their chimp instincts.
That is... if one of these egos doesn't go "pfft, I get beaten? FUCK IT! blow it all up"....
I for one welcome our new cockroach overlords
.Nope as not all Le Pen voters are also automatically against the EU, not all of them will vote again and/or there'll large swathes of former nonvoters. So it would still be open. Also not accounting for potential scandals inbetween her apointment and a referendum.
All hypothetical though since she has no chance in the second round.
This is a bad joke and you should feel bad for making it.
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
Le Pen will not win this time around, sadly. Maybe 2022.
But it'd be impossible to guess anything she'd do. She'd be unpredictable.
But it'd be impossible to guess anything she'd do. She'd be unpredictable.
Huh...
Alx
Member
By this time we will have seen the full consequences of Brexit. It can make or break her program.
Most likely break it.
Fantastapotamus
Wrong about commas, wrong about everything
Being unpredictable seems like a good and valuable quality for the leader of country like France, yeah. Totally. Cool.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
I've got a great idea for a thread:
"Predict the next 5 years of history if everything on Earth is perpetually burning while your soul is being stabbed by sadness"
If Le Pen is elected (which won't happen), I will seriously move to another country. I know everyone always says that but I would do it purely for my own safety. The collapse of the EU + a Trump presidency would pretty much mean the fall of western civilization and I don't want to witness that first-hand. I should have married my Chinese ex when I had the chance. Maybe she'll take me back if I ask nicely?
"Predict the next 5 years of history if everything on Earth is perpetually burning while your soul is being stabbed by sadness"
If Le Pen is elected (which won't happen), I will seriously move to another country. I know everyone always says that but I would do it purely for my own safety. The collapse of the EU + a Trump presidency would pretty much mean the fall of western civilization and I don't want to witness that first-hand. I should have married my Chinese ex when I had the chance. Maybe she'll take me back if I ask nicely?
Go **** yourself to oblivion
benjipwns
Banned
some of us just want to feel something
Yeah. People have no idea how pathetic the shape of german army is right now. Two years ago during NATO excercises they had to use wooden sticks painted black as guns because they didn't have real ones
you may want to look that up again.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deuts...-mit-besenstielen-ins-manoever-a-1019001.html
a broomstick on a vihicle.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
There are easier ways to achieve that than Le Pen. I am a DC and Nintendo fan. Imagine the daily pain.
Fantastapotamus
Wrong about commas, wrong about everything
I can't tell, is this "Germany will invade France" the new hot meme right now or what? Surely it can't be serious
While some caution is welcom, especially after 2016, the amount of pessimism in threads liek this is a bit crazy. If one were to only read such threads, he could think the FN, AfD and other right wing movement (e.g. in Netherlands) already won all elections and were running their country...
While the situation is scary, we're still very far from far right parties gaining notable power in western Europe, especially considering how elections work in most of those countries.
While I agree with most of your post, I'd have to disagree that the EU is completely big companies lapdog. See the roaming fees lifted, TTIP (barely) failing, Apple's and other's fines...
Yes, lobbies have a lot more power in the EU than what I'd be comfortable with, but they aren't completely sold out as I often see written.
People voted against the Lisboa treaty, not against the EU.
And if Le Pen gets elected, it wouldn't necessarily be because they want to leave the EU, but maybe also simply because they fell to her demagogue promises?
At least since 2002, people do take the FN seriously; that Le Pen "made it that far" isn't especially surprising to most people.
On Topic: IF she gets elected (which is for now highly unlikely), yes Europe is most probably fucked (and I'll go back to Germany). China would be an obvious victor in this case, with the US going full protectionist mode to boot.
While the situation is scary, we're still very far from far right parties gaining notable power in western Europe, especially considering how elections work in most of those countries.
While I agree with most of your post, I'd have to disagree that the EU is completely big companies lapdog. See the roaming fees lifted, TTIP (barely) failing, Apple's and other's fines...
Yes, lobbies have a lot more power in the EU than what I'd be comfortable with, but they aren't completely sold out as I often see written.
People voted against the Lisboa treaty, not against the EU.
And if Le Pen gets elected, it wouldn't necessarily be because they want to leave the EU, but maybe also simply because they fell to her demagogue promises?
At least since 2002, people do take the FN seriously; that Le Pen "made it that far" isn't especially surprising to most people.
On Topic: IF she gets elected (which is for now highly unlikely), yes Europe is most probably fucked (and I'll go back to Germany). China would be an obvious victor in this case, with the US going full protectionist mode to boot.
I've only started to see this kind of hate and abuse thrown at us around 2002-2003 with the war in Iraw. 99% of the time it's coming from some american cunt who knows nothing about History and who probably couldn't find his own country on a fucking map. They are usually very proud of their ignorance and think they are super clever. " Durrr durrr french people are cowards durrr durrrr the french always surrender durrr durr " but if you ask them to cite any war that the french army fought except World War 2 they come up empty (the brightest of the bunch might remember that there was another world war ). I won't even go into details about how France is the country that fought and won the most wars in History but eh ... we got owned by the germans 75 years ago so now we have to pay for it till the end of times I guess.
Honestly it's hard to make me mad on the internet but when you come from a family with a long history of military service you start getting sick of people calling your ancestors cowards.
People right now seem to think that the pendulum only goes one way. The populist movement is gaining momentum right now but it won't be smooth sailing forever. The first big challenge will be when people start to see the results (or lack of them) of populist governments.
Here in Finland for instance True Finns party got into the government coalition two years ago. You could call them kind of like a predecessor of Brexit, Trump, etc. with their anti-EU and anti-immigration rhetoric. Their popularity was on the rise for years but once they got into office it crashed and burned because in the end they weren't the saviors they made themselves to be.
Here in Finland for instance True Finns party got into the government coalition two years ago. You could call them kind of like a predecessor of Brexit, Trump, etc. with their anti-EU and anti-immigration rhetoric. Their popularity was on the rise for years but once they got into office it crashed and burned because in the end they weren't the saviors they made themselves to be.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
What are the chances the british government is working to undermine elections in france and Germany to help ensure the eu collapses?
Because fucking nothing would surprise me at this point.
Because fucking nothing would surprise me at this point.
It's not better reading it as a German. This forum is useless for discussion on European affairs. They know a bit about WW2 and that's it. Half the thread is off-topic, look at the first post.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
The Foreign Legion and French special forces alone could probably take apart the entire Bundeswehr if they tried. Literally the only thing that's working in the Bundeswehr right now is the Gebirgsjäger, KSK, the Leopard 2 and the NATO quick response units (and only because all the working equipment is pooled from everwhere else to those units to keep them running and stocked). Heck, not even the G36 is in working condition anymore, and that is literally THE MAIN GUN EVERY SOLDIER CARRIES AROUND.
The Russian army would likely steamroll all over Germany if they tried a conventional invasion and if the French and British armies weren't there to beat them back.
And that's without even taking the extreme pacifism and anti-militarism of the German civilian population into account.
Orniletter
Banned
dragonelite
Member
Probably it would be time to learn mandarin
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Double post, please delete.
French army will have been decimated in the Middle East due to shortsighted anti-IS invasions.
TheWasTheJoke
Member
France is has a pretty strong military tradition so it's ignorant to claim they're 'useless at war' because of the events of WW2. Louis the XIV, Napoleon and Foch we all brilliant militarily leaders.
That being said recognising the sacrifices of soldiers is important, and thats why I think labelling those who died to stop the Nazis 'cowards' is deeply hurtful. However saying a nation is 'useless at war' is a bit different. It is a bit tactless, but more of a criticism of a nation's ineffectiveness, a large entity whose actions should be historically evaluated, rather than of its individual soldiers.
That being said recognising the sacrifices of soldiers is important, and thats why I think labelling those who died to stop the Nazis 'cowards' is deeply hurtful. However saying a nation is 'useless at war' is a bit different. It is a bit tactless, but more of a criticism of a nation's ineffectiveness, a large entity whose actions should be historically evaluated, rather than of its individual soldiers.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
This is pretty much why parties like the PIS party in poland will be trying to disable and take apart the balance of power to stay in power or at least prevent any government after them to alter/get rid their laws/fallout for years.
Yeah, it really shows that the overwhelming majority of users on GAF is from the US. That so many people think that the AfD has an actual chance of taking power in Germany says it all and shows quite a lack of perspective and actual knowledge about the political climate in the country..
Frankfurter
Member
It's highly hypothetical obviously. If Le Pen were to win, there'd be a significant chance that France would leave the EU. Should be considered that she is not some kind of Queen, there is still the legislative that could probably stop most of what she would try to do.
If Frexit happened though, I'd say a complete dissolution of the EU is actually quite unlikely. It would either just continue to exist as EU26 (i.e. current EU minus UK and France) or, in the very worst case, it would be a much smaller Union comprised of, say, the BeNeLux countries, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Ireland. I'm actually not seeing any real possibility that for example Spain would be like "Oh well, France left, so we'll leave too", and the same is true for many countries.
If Frexit happened though, I'd say a complete dissolution of the EU is actually quite unlikely. It would either just continue to exist as EU26 (i.e. current EU minus UK and France) or, in the very worst case, it would be a much smaller Union comprised of, say, the BeNeLux countries, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Ireland. I'm actually not seeing any real possibility that for example Spain would be like "Oh well, France left, so we'll leave too", and the same is true for many countries.
Parties doing everything to keep power is nothing exclusive to the right. Austrian social democrats now suddenly after 100 years of being in opposition of it suggested a majority voting system because that's their only realistic way to stay in power after the 2018 elections (and were highly criticized by everyone from far left to far right except their coalition partner). Add to that the usual blockage of democracy reforms (fair distribution of mandates that doesn't prefer the bigger parties) until after elections, if at all, etc And our supreme court judges are also literally chosen based on party background/vicinity and everybody knows it, people just don't make a big deal out of it. State TV and court of auditors are also nothing but political playballs where the whole country and the media just shakes their head in disbelief.
Orniletter
Banned
It's just a dumb joke, chill.
Like, your country has nukes at it's disposal while the Bundeswehr practices with painted broomsticks. France has a capable military for it's size, everyone knows that.
What I do....kind of....feel alarming is that you seem to take pride in France's past military achievements.
TheSecondSpitter
Member
Alx
Member
For better or worse, the army is a big part of French culture. Our constitution was written by a general (De Gaulle) and a lot of our administration was conceived by Napoleon. Our most prestigious elite school is military (Polytechnique), our national anthem is a war song, and we celebrate our national day with military parades (during last presidential campaigns, a candidate with norvegian origins suggested that we should get rid of the parade... she was laughed out of the debates).
It's not something that you'll easily erase from French minds.
80%. The presidential election is the only one people care about, but they care a lot.
I'm very anti-militaristic. I find wars pointless.Even though it's nothing to prouf of , facts are facts. France is the country that fought and won the most wars in the History of mankind. It's usually the only argument that works against the moronic statements like the ones we saw in this thread.
Orniletter
Banned
That's interesting and almost the total opposite of how we view our military in germany.
In my circle of friends, working for the military was always treated as a "last resort" / something you should try to avoid at all costs.
My father and ...funnily enough... several of my teachers loved to talk about how awful 80s era conscription in the Bundeswehr was.
Probably a late by effect of WW2 and Denazification.
Ok, thats fair enough !
Last time it was around 80%. French love the presidential election, it always has the highest tournout. Of couse, the highest it is, the less favorable it is for Le Pen.
andythinkpad
Member
During the Carolingian dynasty. The problem of West Europe is they never tried to unify their language in the past 2 thousand years. That's the main reason Europe can not come together.
andythinkpad
Member
If the Russia sanction is lift and oil price goes up I think Putin has enough power to make an attempt to "repair the Soviet map". If I am Putin first step I would force the former Soviet republics to join the Eurasia Economic Union, second step I would force a bilateral military agreement between Russia and each tiny ass Republics and basically make them rely on Russia army for foreign defense.
And then Putin would change the nation anthem lyric back to the soviet one.
And then Putin would change the nation anthem lyric back to the soviet one.
Frankfurter
Member
A good way to simplify the issues of Europe in the past couple of thousand years lol. + Europe came together. You know with this whole EU thing?
Yeah I see something like this too. Benelux and Germany will always benefit from being in another union/alliance together which will then be an inviting opportunity for Austria, Poland, Ireland and the Nordic countries.
If France goes out under Le Pen though it seems they are putting themselves in a weird position if they don't include themselves in another Franco-German (with Benelux as binding middle partner) coalition.
Gabriel_Logan
Member
France deserves every bit of credit for what it did in WWI
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