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[hiska-kun]

Well, in that interview Siliconera translated a while ago, Akihiro Hino mentioned a "break" for Yo-kai Watch this year, so yeah, no new game in 2017 (but that was to be expected, they're still not done with the major updates for YW3. 3.0 was released today, but there's still 4.0 coming).

I could see a "GOTY" edition later this year, with all major updates included and an exclusive medal of some sort.

YW4 could be a July 2018 title.

Not related to your quote, but do we know anything about Snack World Anime? It's already on air? Was supposed to come out on April. If it is, do we know how is rated?

 

[zeromcd73]

Not related to your quote, but do we know anything about Snack World Anime? It's already on air? Was supposed to come out on April. If it is, do we know how is rated?

http://www.tv-tokyo.co.jp/anime/snack-world/

It aired its first episode on the 13th (same day as the Nintendo direct). I watched it for about 10mins and didn't like it much.

There didn't seem to be too much talk about it on social media, nor did it seem to help game preorders very much since it isn't even in the top 75 on Amazon. It is a game targeted at young children, however, so we probably won't actually get a feel for how popular it will be until the game releases. Merchandise for the series doesn't go on sale until the game does in July as well.

You can check the top 10 anime viewership ratings every week (Kantou area only) here: http://www.videor.co.jp/data/ratedata/top10.htm

Snack World is targeted at kids and is in a good time slot -Pokemon starts straight after this is finished on the same channels- so it should appear on the charts next week. Should help since it's its first episode too.

 

[Chris1964]

Everything I saw from Level 5 looks to have written "failure" on it. If Yo-kai Watch dies they are entering dark days.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

They are sleeping on Fantasy Life. It could be their new multi million franchise.

 

[zeromcd73]

Oh, found a blog that releases tv ratings early everyday :http://dorasute.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-2409.html

Looks like Snack World's first episode had a viewership rating of 2.0%

I don't know much about ratings, but in comparison Youkai Watch averaged a viewership of 5.4% back when it first started. Monster Hunter Stories opened with less than 2.7% and was considered a big bomb.

 

[Busaiku]

After the first one didn't come close?

 

[Gradivus]

Oh, found a blog that releases tv ratings early everyday :http://dorasute.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-2409.html

Looks like Snack World's first episode had a viewership rating of 2.0%

I don't know much about ratings, but in comparison Youkai Watch averaged a viewership of 5.4% back when it first started. Monster Hunter Stories opened with less than 2.7% and was considered a big bomb.

It really depends on the Channel/timeslot/blah blah blah to get an idea of how success it is, but comparing it to the others on that list, it looks like it's bombing hard.

 

[Chris1964]

That is true, but the PS4 did held up quite nicely for about half a year. There wasnt a big release every week, but it had a decent/fairly good lineup spread out in that time frame though.

+ PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro, PSVR. Sony and third parties pushed PS4 hard last 6 months.

That's not what's happening this quarter, there aren't more than 3 titles that could top 100k LTD and even these 3 won't go much further from there.
___

From what I read regarding Splatoon 2, hype looks to be over the top. Maybe we'll see a Monster Hunter Portable -> Monster Hunter Portable 2 scenario for first week.

 

[test_account]

+ PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro, PSVR. Sony and third parties pushed PS4 hard last 6 months.

That's not what's happening this quarter, there aren't more than 3 titles that could top 100k LTD and even these 3 won't go much further from there.

Thats true. I was just wondering if anyone had been more adamant about PS4 staying above 30k each week for the rest of the year since it was made fun of the first week the PS4 dropped below 30k in almost 6 months.

 

[Vena]

Thats true. I was just wondering if anyone had been more adamant about PS4 staying above 30k each week for the rest of the year since it was made fun of the first week the PS4 dropped below 30k in almost 6 months.

Well, yes, that's why the discussion was about a baseline. That in its name implies expecting it to weather even bad weeks within spitting distance of 30K.

 

[schuelma]

From what I read regarding Splatoon 2, hype looks to be over the top. Maybe we'll see a Monster Hunter Portable -> Monster Hunter Portable 2 scenario for first week.

I think the only thing that will hold it back that first week is size of the userbase (relatively speaking- I still expect it to have a huge first week)

 

[frankie_baby]

I think the only thing that will hold it back that first week is size of the userbase (relatively speaking- I still expect it to have a huge first week)

There should be at least a million switch owners before it launches and if zelda can launch to an attatch rate over 100% in america i see no reason splatoon 2 cant in japan

 

[Chris1964]

Week 16, 2017 (Apr 17 - Apr 23)

new releases

{2017.04.17}
[PS4] Nemurenai Tamashii: Restless Spirit |PlayStation VR| _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Wise) (¥925)

{2017.04.18}
[NSW] Wonder Boy: The Dragon's Trap _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (DotEmu) (¥2.037)
[PS4] Wonder Boy: The Dragon's Trap _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (DotEmu) (¥2.037)
[PS4] Flinthook _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Tribute Games) (¥1.387)

{2017.04.19}
[3DS] Shounen Ashibe: Go! Go! Goma-chan: Cute na Goma-chi Ippai Puzzle _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (FuRyu) (¥500)
[3DS] Dot Artist _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ETC> (Rainy Frog) (¥462)
[3DS] Shoot the Ball |New Nintendo 3DS| _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Cosen) (¥277)
[WIU] Dot Artist _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ETC> (Rainy Frog) (¥462)
[WIU] Shoot the Ball _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Cosen) (¥277)
[WIU] Gaia no Monshou _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Extreme) (¥571)
[WIU] Moto Roader II _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Extreme) (¥571)

{2017.04.20}
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia # <SLG> (Nintendo) (¥4.980)
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia (1)(Limited Edition) <SLG> (Nintendo) (¥6.980)
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia (2)(Nintendo Store Limited) <SLG> (Nintendo) (¥10.980)
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nintendo) (¥4.980)
[3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.700)
[3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.700)
[PSV] Dungeon Travelers 2-2: The Maiden Who Fell into Darkness and the Book of Beginnings # <RPG> (Aqua Plus) (¥5.800)
[PSV] Dungeon Travelers 2-2: The Maiden Who Fell into Darkness and the Book of Beginnings (Premium Edition) <RPG> (Aqua Plus) (¥8.800)
[PSV] Dungeon Travelers 2-2: The Maiden Who Fell into Darkness and the Book of Beginnings (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Aqua Plus) (¥4.761)
[PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[NSW] Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥4.980)
[NSW] Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥4.980)
[PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition <Dark Souls III \ Dark Souls III: Ashes of Ariandel \ Dark Souls III: The Ringed City> <RPG> (From Software) (¥5.900)
[PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition <Dark Souls III \ Dark Souls III: Ashes of Ariandel \ Dark Souls III: The Ringed City> (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (From Software) (¥5.400)
[PS4] One Piece: Burning Blood [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS4] One Piece: Burning Blood (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS4] PaRappa the Rapper Remastered <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥1.800)
[PS4] PaRappa the Rapper Remastered (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥1.800)
[XB1] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition <Dark Souls III \ Dark Souls III: Ashes of Ariandel \ Dark Souls III: The Ringed City> <RPG> (From Software) (¥5.900)
[XB1] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition <Dark Souls III \ Dark Souls III: Ashes of Ariandel \ Dark Souls III: The Ringed City> (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (From Software) (¥5.400)

YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia < 160k (average 140k)
02. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax < 40k (average 35k)
03. [PSV] Dungeon Travelers 2-2: The Maiden Who Fell into Darkness and the Book of Beginnings < 40k (average 35k)

 

[jonno394]

So Fire Emblem potentially considerably down on opening weeks compared to Awakening/Fates. Is this because of it's remake status? Also, I'm sure I read the original title wasn't very popular anyway.

 

[cw_sasuke]

So Fire Emblem potentially considerably down on opening weeks compared to Awakening/Fates. Is this because of it's remake status? Also, I'm sure I read the original title wasn't very popular anyway.

Its a Remake and 3DS is it 7th year on the market. It actually is doing better than i expected - the FE Heroes probably prevented an even bigger drop.

The next "Awakening" style main release is already planned for 2018 on Switch - so yeah.

 

[theprodigy]

Its a Remake and 3DS is it 7th year on the market. It actually is doing better than i expected - the FE Heroes probably prevented an even bigger drop.

The next "Awakening" style main release is already planned for 2018 on Switch - so yeah.

really now, I remember back when it was Chris vs the world in here about whether it would do better than the DS remakes or not!

 

[thestopsign]

There should be at least a million switch owners before it launches and if zelda can launch to an attatch rate over 100% in america i see no reason splatoon 2 cant in japan

I hope you are joking on the 100% attach rate. This is the jump Chris is talking about:

Week 49, 2005 (Nov 28-Dec 4)
03./00 Monster Hunter Freedom PSP 118.317

Week 8, 2007 (Feb 19-Feb 25)
01./00 Monster Hunter Freedom 2 PSP 746.313

Week 22, 2015 (May 25-May 31)
01./00 Splatoon WII U 156.610

 

[Chris1964]

Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition is the next game out of YSO top 3 with 30-35k sales.

 

[frankie_baby]

I hope you are joking on the 100% attach rate. This is the jump Chris is talking about:

Week 49, 2005 (Nov 28-Dec 4)
03./00 Monster Hunter Freedom PSP 118.317

Week 8, 2007 (Feb 19-Feb 25)
01./00 Monster Hunter Freedom 2 PSP 746.313

Week 22, 2015 (May 25-May 31)
01./00 Splatoon WII U 156.610

Oh of course I'm joking, i am massively bullish on s2 though dont think the leap will be far off that one

 

[Chris1964]

Splatoon doesn't look to have dropped at popularity at all since Wii U days. If Nintendo follows same marketing and push Splatoon 2 could double Splatoon LTD for a 3m+ LTD. How higher it will go from there depends on Switch longterm success.

 

[Nirolak]

So Fire Emblem potentially considerably down on opening weeks compared to Awakening/Fates. Is this because of it's remake status? Also, I'm sure I read the original title wasn't very popular anyway.

really now, I remember back when it was Chris vs the world in here about whether it would do better than the DS remakes or not!

I never got why people thought the game would do especially well.

I mean, even just by virtue of being people who play video games, it should be easy to tell it's an unexciting release.

 

[Celine]

Splatoon doesn't look to have dropped at popularity at all since Wii U days. If Nintendo follows same marketing and push Splatoon 2 could double Splatoon LTD for a 3m+ LTD. How higher it will go from there depends on Switch longterm success.

That would be an extraordinaire result.

 

[d+pad]

They are sleeping on Fantasy Life. It could be their new multi million franchise.

I don't agree w/ your comment about Fantasy Life being a multi-million seller, but I do think Level-5 could've seen moderate success with a proper, 3DS-based Fantasy Life 2 (and not the icky looking mobile game they actually released).

 

[Nirolak]

I don't agree w/ your comment about Fantasy Life being a multi-million seller, but I do think Level-5 could've seen moderate success with a proper, 3DS-based Fantasy Life 2 (and not the icky looking mobile game they actually released).

I don't think that actually released yet.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Well Splatoon 2 isn't even officially opened for preorders but has 47 in 3 days at COMG....

 

[Blue Ranger]

Well Splatoon 2 isn't even officially opened for preorders but has 47 in 3 days at COMG....

Do you know how ARMS is doing over there?

 

[Nirolak]

I'm going to put up a separate thread, but Dragon Ball Z: Dokkan Battle is currently the #1 grossing app in the US.

For quite a while post 2012, Japanese mobile gacha games really struggled overseas, so this is a pretty historic achievement, especially given mobile is still showing strong growth.

Things like this also help explain why we see so many more gacha games getting localized these days.

 

[Mpl90]

Do you know how ARMS is doing over there?

It hasn't appeared yet. But it's two months before the release, no need to be worried at all.

 

[Nirolak]

ARMS is going to want things like a beta to really start generating interest, and that would still be a while away for a new IP, since they're likely to go gold first, especially given it's Nintendo and they wouldn't want people experiencing bugs.

 

[cw_sasuke]

really now, I remember back when it was Chris vs the world in here about whether it would do better than the DS remakes or not!

Well...i can only speak for myself.

I'm going to put up a separate thread, but Dragon Ball Z: Dokkan Battle is currently the #1 grossing app in the US.

For quite a while post 2012, Japanese mobile gacha games really struggled overseas, so this is a pretty historic achievement, especially given mobile is still showing strong growth.

Things like this also help explain why we see so many more gacha games getting localized these days.

They are still struggling for the most part - Dokkan Battle is as big because of the IP and the amount of gem-sales they have. If classic gacha games like PaD or Monster Striker perform well here i will be impressed.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'd wait a few months to see if Snack World will hold any potential with the anime. It took a while for YW to reach high popularity in Japan, perhaps it could be the same for Snack World.

 

[Man God]

ARMS is going to want things like a beta to really start generating interest, and that would still be a while away for a new IP, since they're likely to go gold first, especially given it's Nintendo and they wouldn't want people experiencing bugs.

Global Testfire really worked for Splatoon. I went from being ambivalent to preordering it immediately after the first hour ended.

Then again if Arms sucks it'll turn people off.

 

[Xbro]

(Stolen from theprodigy)

01. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia < 160k (average 140k)

[NDS] Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon 147.704 252.309
[NDS] Fire Emblem: New Mystery of the Emblem - Hero of Light and Shadow 147.045 250.592

 

[Chris1964]

That would be an extraordinaire result.

Switch could outsell Wii U LTD in less than 12 months and 3DS late ports showed that many games were held back because of low userbase.

If Mario Kart 8 DX outsells Mario Kart 8 there is no doubt a new Splatoon entry will do much better.

 

[Nirolak]

Well...i can only speak for myself.


They are still struggling for the most part - Dokkan Battle is as big because of the IP and the amount of gem-sales they have. If classic gacha games like PaD or Monster Striker perform well here i will be impressed.

It would be pretty hard for me to imagine an unbranded Japanese game in the top 10 in general given how few companies get there, with most of them having been there for nearly half a decade.

Maybe in a 3-5 more years as people who grew up on phones keep using them.

Unlike Japan, a lot of top 10 real estate is taken up by service apps too (Spotify, Netflix, etc).

 

[cw_sasuke]

It would be pretty hard for me to imagine an unbranded Japanese game in the top 10 in general given how few companies get there, with most of them having been there for nearly half a decade.

Maybe in a 3-5 more years as people who grew up on phones keep using them.

Unlike Japan, a lot of top 10 real estate is taken up by service apps too (Spotify, Netflix, etc).

You dont have to be a Top 10 game in Japan to already be performing quite well - there are a dozens of title that keep chugging along without or rarely hitting those high notes.

I mean you are right that the titles have been performing better compared to 2010 - but thats most likely because the games are based on more popular IPs nowadays (FF,DBZ etc.) and the fact that companies are even bothering with the Global market. I would put it in the same category as people saying 3rdParty games perform well on Nintendo consoles because of Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest.

Lets see how the market evolves outside of the titles that are tied to already proven/successful brands. Was quite disappointed to see how titles like PaD and MS have been managed outside of Japan. PaD still doesnt have a european Android version - what a joke, Not that anyone would care at this point...but yeah.

Edit:

What i wanna add though - Bamco has been killing it on the mobile market. They seem to be ready for the takeover and their gacha titles based on their licensed brands are usually quite solid efforts. This probably helped raising awareness over the years.

 

[Cerium]

I have a question: Will there be any way to know how well Minecraft on Switch does in Japan? The physical release isn't coming until way later.

 

[frankie_baby]

I have a question: Will there be any way to know how well Minecraft on Switch does in Japan? The physical release isn't coming until way later.

Theres the chart position on the eshop but no numbers so thats meaningless and then theres famitsu's monthly digital estimates but they're pretty dodgy but give us a reasonable ballpark

 

[Aostia]

I have a question: Will there be any way to know how well Minecraft on Switch does in Japan? The physical release isn't coming until way later.

If Switch hw holds in May and Minecraft leads eshop switch charts you can at least desume it is selling well

 

[Celine]

Switch could outsell Wii U LTD in less than 12 months and 3DS late ports showed that many games were held back because of low userbase.

If Mario Kart 8 DX outsells Mario Kart 8 there is no doubt a new Splatoon entry will do much better.

Oh I wasn't doubting of the potential.
Just reinforcing that 3M+ would be huge for Japan.

 

[Chris1964]

Splatoon had big sales for a new IP. If Nintendo plays cards right its sequel will be much bigger. I would not call 3m+ an extraordinary result for Splatoon 2, if Switch is a as big as it's expected to be, but 4m+. This would place it into a very small group of games in Japan and already from second entry, something even less games have managed to do.

 

[KtSlime]

I have a question: Will there be any way to know how well Minecraft on Switch does in Japan? The physical release isn't coming until way later.

Sometime in May is way later?

 

[frankie_baby]

Sometime in May is way later?

may is just the digital release

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I don't agree w/ your comment about Fantasy Life being a multi-million seller, but I do think Level-5 could've seen moderate success with a proper, 3DS-based Fantasy Life 2 (and not the icky looking mobile game they actually released).

The original game sold more than 1 million copies worldwide and it was barely treated as a serious release. Give it a proper market campaign and budget and it could definitely sell more than 2 million copies worldwide.

The game is great and is what people want nowadays: open world, lots of exploration and freedom.

I think Fantasy Life 2 is in the works so we will see.

 

[ßig]

The Japanese Direct said that the physical version will come out in May as well.

edit: Just re-watched that portion of the Direct and it turns out I was wrong

 

[KtSlime]

Sorry, double post

Edit: Original post:

No it isn't, go back and watch the video.

It says "&#12497;&#12483;&#12465;&#12540;&#12472;&#29256;&#12399;5&#26376;&#30330;&#22770;&#20104;&#23450;"

Package version is scheduled for sale in May.

It might change, but that's just a baseless guess.

 

[frankie_baby]

The Japanese Direct said that the physical version will come out in May as well.

Did it? Must have missed that

 

[Eolz]

The Japanese Direct said that the physical version will come out in May as well.

Nice, missed that! Makes sense that the JP market would get it first tbh (for the Switch specifically I mean).

 

[frankie_baby]

The Japanese Direct said that the physical version will come out in May as well.

No it isn't, go back and watch the video.

It says "&#12497;&#12483;&#12465;&#12540;&#12472;&#29256;&#12399;5&#26376;&#30330;&#22770;&#20104;&#23450;"

Package version is scheduled for sale in May.

It might change, but that's just a baseless guess.

Oh boy, switch really is gonna eat japan


Edit -- seriously this post wrong order thing is driving me fucking mad

 

[jonno394]

Nice, missed that! Makes sense that the JP market would get it first tbh (for the Switch specifically I mean).

I missed that as well! Thought a lack of retail release might hamper the effect Minecraft would have, not any more though!