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[InaSnowBoundLand]

Pretty sad that at the end of the day, Fillon exits with more class and patriotism than Melenchon.

Very interesting strategy of the left these days. "This candidate will make the far right win in the future. So let's just allow the far-right to win right now".

 

[Red Arremer]

Hopefully French people living outside of France didn't vote for her. I can't find results for them yet.

Someone posted results for Guyana earlier which was mostly Melenchon and Le Pen. Not sure about the other ones though. Unless you don't mean French territories and French citizens residing in other countries.

 

[Hypron]

Someone posted results for Guyana earlier which was mostly Melenchon and Le Pen. Not sure about the other ones though. Unless you don't mean French territories and French citizens residing in other countries.

Yeah I meant the latter.

You'd have to extra dumb to vote for Le Pen if you were living in another country, but you never know.

 

[Red Arremer]

Yeah I meant the latter.

You'd have to extra dumb to vote for Le Pen if you were living in another country, but you never know.

Postal ballot votes generally tend to favour left and conservative candidates, since people who submit them usually are studying or working abroad, which, as a rule of thumb, isn't something lower income/education people do.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Are there any good places I could read a demographic analysis of the results?

 

[Red Arremer]

Are there any good places I could read a demographic analysis of the results?

.

Interesting data on 2nd round's prospect (Ipsos, 2000 ppl sample polled after 8pm)

More data on the sociological profiles of the voters (Ipsos too)

By salary

By level of degree/diploma

By socio-professional category

By age

btw yes comparisons with the US are not relevant

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

.

Thanks! I was in a car all day so I missed watching most of this.

LOL at the 70+ category, Fillon's only fans

 

[whyamihere]

Thanks! I was in a car all day so I missed watching most of this.

LOL at the 70+ category, Fillon's only fans

It's sort of amazing.

 

[mo60]

Lol. I find it funny how close Marine le Pen was to not making the runoff. There was like less then a 2 point difference between 2nd and 4th place in the end,

 

[Herb Alpert]

Thanks! I was in a car all day so I missed watching most of this.

LOL at the 70+ category, Fillon's only fans

The candidate for old men yelling at clouds.

 

[Mael]

So that's another hypothesis that you have yet to explain in details. Besides RT/Sputnik who like to cover Mélenchon (among others), I don't really see anything explaining his success. It's pretty simple : he did a great campaign by himself, using the Internet like no other candidate and gaining credibility that brought him Hamon voters and non-voting people who wanted an alternative to Fillon-Le Pen-Macron, based on the momentum that he got in the polls since the end of March. Pretty simple.
Which fake stories from RT Mélenchon used against Macron ?
Fillon supporters did a lot of fake news but I haven't seen much from Mélenchon supporters. The biggest fake news they had was the bigdata polling which turned out to be the worst of all.

I'm not saying Putin is the result of Mélenchon's success, I'm saying there is plenty of room for him to push him behind the scene.
They clearly put most of their eggs in the Lepen basket(I'm wondering about Asselineau thuogh). If they anticipated Mélenchon he would have had a bigger push from them.
Looking at how they dealt with the US election and what we know from their interference of the current French one, we do not have to guess that they probably provided some support.
We won't know because he lost and who gives a shit at analyzing the campaign of a loser anyway.

 

[CrazedProfessional]

I'm an Australian but watching this unfold pretty much makes Macron a lock in, right?

FN will get no endorsements from the losing parties, right? Giving Macron the better ground game and momentum?

 

[nubbe]

.

sad to see the peasants becoming the enemy of themselves

 

[SamVimes]

In the end Melenchon showed his true character.

 

[Alx]

I'm an Australian but watching this unfold pretty much makes Macron a lock in, right?

FN will get no endorsements from the losing parties, right? Giving Macron the better ground game and momentum?

Nothing is ever a lock in, but he has all stars aligned for him.
He already received official support from most major candidates, except for Mélenchon (but his voters will rather be split between abstaining and supporting Macron).

 

[GCX]

I'm an Australian but watching this unfold pretty much makes Macron a lock in, right?

FN will get no endorsements from the losing parties, right? Giving Macron the better ground game and momentum?

This illustrates the situation pretty well based on polling data:

 

[Ashes]

What has European politics become when far right leaders coming second place is more a sigh of relief rather than shock?

 

[TyrantII]

Pretty sad that at the end of the day, Fillon exits with more class and patriotism than Melenchon.

Very interesting strategy of the left these days. "This candidate will make the far right win in the future. So let's just allow the far-right to win right now".

It's the strategy of ignorance and those that don't know their history. Or just wear their morality on their sleeve, and need to tell you how pure they are as they find the true Scottsman.

The idea breaking things and causing huge suffering will bring about a liberal Utopia is a hell of a Gambit, and not one history usually sides with.

 

[Blackquill]

Maybe some of them don't want to integrate at all? They want their radical culture to be maintained wherever they are and if so that's a big problem since they are radicals.

That's not how it works

 

[EmiPrime]

What has European politics become when far right leaders coming second place is more a sigh of relief rather than shock?

She was due to win the first round by a big margin for the longest time, instead she only just beat a scandal ruined Fillion to second place by 1.5%.

 

[KingSnake]

More data from Ipsos (tonight's polls)
Very interresting
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/f...elle-2017-comprendre-le-vote-des-francais.pdf
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/f...ciologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf

Looking at the data, the shtick of "Macron is just Hollande reloaded" doesn't seem to work beyond internet. Macron is seen more as the face of the change by his voters than others.

Pretty sad that at the end of the day, Fillon exits with more class and patriotism than Melenchon.

Very interesting strategy of the left these days. "This candidate will make the far right win in the future. So let's just allow the far-right to win right now".

It's a logical fallacy. It starts with saying that nobody wants actually to vote with Macron and he gets the votes for being anti-MLP but in 5 years all these anti-MLP voters will suddenly vote for MLP because reasons.

Plus, as the charts shown in this thread show, radical left and MLP fight for the same demographic more or less so I don't understand this obsession about attacking Macron when the left should fight for the electorate that MLP is stealing from them.

 

[Condom]

It's the strategy of ignorance and those that don't know their history. Or just wear their morality on their sleeve, and need to tell you how pure they are as they find the true Scottsman.

The idea breaking things and causing huge suffering will bring about a liberal Utopia is a hell of a Gambit, and not one history usually sides with.

Uh history is not on the side of the liberals here.

And it's not a true Scotsman thing at all, you're trying to get Scots to support a known Brit here. Luckily for you enough people will so stop the bashing, we know how ridiculous it became in the US situation.

 

[KingSnake]

Looking at the results now, even attacking Macron in the first round was the wrong strategy for some of the Melenchon's supporters. He wasn't the one to beat to make the second round.

 

[Gurgelhals]

Though I would have loved to see Fillon ending up in fourth place for extra gloriousness, after Mélenchon's rather dickish "concession speech" and Fillon's comparatively dignified exit I'm happy with the result as it is.

 

[Oreiller]

Looking at the results now, even attacking Macron in the first round was the wrong strategy for Melenchon's supporters. He wasn't the one to beat to make the second round.

Yeah, it didn't really make sense, especially since Mélenchon himself focused mainly on Fillon and Le Pen.

Though, I have to say, I somewhat regret voting for him because of his shitty speech and behavior last night. I knew I should have voted for Hamon instead.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

As a casual observer, I limes Fillon the most. His program is great and he seems to be Prezidental material.

 

[EmiPrime]

As a casual observer, I limes Fillon the most. His program is great and he seems to be Prezidental material.

Let me break something to you, you might want to sit down.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Let me break something to you, you might want to sit down.

If you mean his corruption scandal, I take that as a given for every politician.

 

[Souldriver]

Yeah, it didn't really make sense, especially since Mélenchon himself focused mainly on Fillon and Le Pen.

Though, I have to say, I somewhat regret voting for him because of his shitty speech and behavior last night. I knew I should have voted for Hamon instead.

Yeah Hamon got shafted.

Is it just because he's from the PS that he was dead on arrival? Because left economic policies coupled with a pro-EU stance seems to be what a lot of people were waiting for. So many people voting for Mélenchon because of his economic policies despite his euroscepticism, so many people voting for Macron for his EU stances despite his economic policies.

 

[Alej]

Yeah Hamon got shafted.

Is it just because he's from the PS that he was dead on arrival? Because left economic policies coupled with a pro-EU stance seems to be what a lot of people were waiting for. So many people voting for Mélenchon because of his economic policies despite his euroscepticism, so many people voting for Macron for his EU stances despite his economic policies.

Hamon and Mélenchon should make a new PS. Without those who will join En Marche!.
So we can win in 2022.

 

[Lord Frieza]

What has European politics become when far right leaders coming second place is more a sigh of relief rather than shock?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't her father also get this far while being wildly more unhinged and racist than she is, at least publicly, several years ago as well?

 

[EmiPrime]

If you mean his corruption scandal, I take that as a given for every politician.

Well not every politician has conned the state out of hundreds of thousands of Euros but anyway, the election already happened!

Yeah Hamon got shafted.

Is it just because he's from the PS that he was dead on arrival?

That and so many from his own party effectively defected to Macron.

 

[mo60]

What has European politics become when far right leaders coming second place is more a sigh of relief rather than shock?

She was suppose to come first for a very long time but macron's rise, a gaffe plus two terrible debate performances destroyed her chances of ending up first.

 

[Souldriver]

Hamon and Mélenchon should make a new PS. Without those who will join En Marche!.
So we can win in 2022.

So then you end up with

- social very conservatism and economic protectionism
- social conservatism and economic liberalism
- social progressivism and economic liberalism
- social progressivism and economic protectionism

As the four big movements (roughly speaking). It could be worse.

 

[mo60]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't her father also get this far while being wildly more unhinged and racist than she is, at least publicly, several years ago as well?

Yeah, but he did like 4% worse then her in the second round and barely ended up second like her.He barely improved from his first round result in the second round.Unlike her father she will expand her base a bit from like 21% to likely 35% in the second round unless she is really unlucky.

 

[EmiPrime]

Hamon and Mélenchon should make a new PS. Without those who will join En Marche!.
So we can win in 2022.

Hamon and Mélenchon are incompatible.

 

[Alej]

So then you end up with

- social very conservatism and economic protectionism
- social conservatism and economic liberalism
- social progressivism and economic liberalism
- social progressivism and economic protectionism

As the four big movements (roughly speaking). It could be worse.

Exactly.

Hamon and Mélenchon are incompatible.

They definitely aren't. The people voting for them are really the same.

 

[Mael]

Hamon and Mélenchon are incompatible.

On the EU alone they are as far as LePen and Macron!

 

[Christhor]

What has European politics become when far right leaders coming second place is more a sigh of relief rather than shock?

Only 21% of French people are racist? Guess we can go back to ignoring this and pretend everything's fine.

 

[Cromat]

Who knew the dogmatic hard left candidate is a self-involved cunt. That never happens.

 

[EmiPrime]

They definitely aren't. The people voting for them are really the same.

They're really not.

On the EU alone they are as far as LePen and Macron!

Indeed.

 

[Palette Swap]

Gerard Miller (semi-famous Mélenchon supporter) was on the radio this morning, and I turned it on as he was explaining why Macron voters didn't vote for his ideas, while Mélenchon had built a really new platform that people were intellectually flocking too.

That glasshouse.

 

[Blackquill]

I see more and more people that doesn't want to vote because both candidates suck

Please stop that

 

[Alx]

Only 21% of French people are racist? Guess we can go back to ignoring this and pretend everything's fine.

Not all of the 21% are racist, and there are many racists in the remaining 79%. The shortcut "FN = racism" isn't really helping fighting its rise and countering its arguments.

I see more and more people that doesn't want to vote because both candidates suck

Please stop that

I guess (and hope) many of them will change their mind in the next two weeks. After all many were expected to abstain on the first round because they disliked all of the four major candidates, and in the end the turnout was fine.
Also it's an immediate hangover reaction, based on disappointment and frustration.

 

[Blackquill]

She was suppose to come first for a very long time but macron's rise, a gaffe plus two terrible debate performances destroyed her chances of ending up first.

The sad thing about her is that she basically did nothing during this campaign ans still got 2nd which is beyond frustrations. She is not even a talented politicien and will still have a chance to become president

 

[Smooth Operator]

I agree. Lot of people are voting for the FN only on the first turn because they hate the political climate etc... They won't vote for the FN on the second turn.

 

[Oreiller]

Hamon and Mélenchon are incompatible.

That's factually false. Mélenchon was one of Hamon's closest supporters inside the PS until he left the party in 2008.

 

[EmiPrime]

That's factually false. Mélenchon was one of Hamon's closest supporters inside the PS until he left the party in 2008.

That doesn't mean they could form a new party together or rebuild from the ashes of the PS. Mélenchon won't compromise on anything, he is a narcissist. Hamon was absolutely incredulous at the pro-Russia comments regarding Ukraine coming from many of the candidates (including JLM) during one of the debates and he is pro-EU.

 

[Koren]

Both departments I lived in voted for Le Pen.

Bleuargh

Hopefully French people living outside of France didn't vote for her. I can't find results for them yet.

French people in most foreign countries supported Macron by a large margin if I'm not mistaken.

That's factually false. Mélenchon was one of Hamon's closest supporters inside the PS until he left the party in 2008.

The problem is that a huge chunk of Macron supporters, given the choice between Hamon-Macron team (which is a huge stretch of views, I don't have a single clue about what they would choose as economical policy) and a moderate right candidate would definitively left Macron.

He won becase there wasn't moderate right candidate (Fillon is strong right, has ties with far-right movements AND has the Penelope gate) and moderate left candidate (Mélenchon isn't, Hamon is the left of PS, and France hasn't really ever been truly left). It's a setup that only happen once in a century (ask Bayrou, he nearly did it, but still couldn't)

 

[Fisico]

He won becase there wasn't moderate right candidate (Fillon is strong right, has ties with far-right movements AND has the Penelope gate) and moderate left candidate (Mélenchon isn't, Hamon is the left of PS, and France hasn't really ever been truly left). It's a setup that only happen once in a century (ask Bayrou, he nearly did it, but still couldn't)

On a political point of view everything really fell into place for Macron the past few months

- Valls not winning in the primaries
- Fillon winning the right primaries
- Fillon's penelope gate
- Melenchon's rise stripping part of Le Pen and Hamon's left votes

Clearly Russia was behind all that in the end, supporting the islamist Bilel Hamon, hacking Fillon's laptop and funding Melenchon (+developing its internet platform including liivestreaming from Youtube and Fiskal Kombat)

Hamon and Mélenchon are incompatible.

They worked together at the left of the PS for almost a decade but ok.
Melenchon's program and stance also changed a lot between 2012/2017, and I honestly don't think he will be there once again in 2022.