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[Dehnus]

The whole "we can't let FN win" is going to have a wrong impact again. Just like we saw with Brexit and Trump. Give people your solutions and answers, don't just point to the other side and say "they are bad". If people vote FN there is a reason for it. Tap into that reason, but with actual better solutions.

So basically be nice to those that wish to put you in a camp, and really hurt you? The ones that don't care one bit for you, and are not interested in your solutions? The ones that wend out in droves to Paris to "stop gay Marriage!"? The ones.. yeah I can go on for a while...believe me these people will always vote Le'Penn as they are shitheads to begin with.

 

[GhostTrick]

The point is that there would be another decent candidate to chose from besides Fillon.

Then again, Hollande fucked up the left unfortunately :/

Actually it's not that clear no :\

She may have 25-30% (which is enormous already) BUT we don't know how will react the fillon/sarkozy voters (who are it seems a lot) in case of Socialist/Fn second turn. They won't specially prefer a socialist president to a fn one i can tell you.

Well, at least, Fillon would call to vote for the socialist candidate... That is, if Hollande isn't the candidate, which would mean no second turn.

The whole "we can't let FN win" is going to have a wrong impact again. Just like we saw with Brexit and Trump. Give people your solutions and answers, don't just point to the other side and say "they are bad". If people vote FN there is a reason for it. Tap into that reason, but with actual better solutions.

You know that a good chunk of these voters are basically like "there's too much muslims/arabs/blacks in France" ?
This isn't America. We have PLENTY of parties against Europe, in the left too. We have plenty of parties sharing the economical program of Le Pen. The only difference ? Her immigration program. You're basically asking us to give solutions to people who's problem is based on the color skin/faith/sexual preferences.

 

[andythinkpad]

Socially conservative doesn't mean the same thing in France and in the US, I would be very very surprised if he tried anything against same-sex marriage, that would kill any hope he'd have of doing anything on the economic side right there and then.

The more I think about these results the more I feel that they are good for Macron. The left knows that Hollande has no chance now and will be desperate to push him out, Valls doesn't look like he will get anywhere, and when Juppé loses all the center-right voters will be looking for a new home. He's still a very long shot but there is some kind of a path for him now.

Who cares about same sex marriage (and bathroom, for that matter.) Brexit and Trump won because of job security issue.

 

[ClosingADoor]

So basically be nice to those that wish to put you in a camp, and really hurt you? The ones that don't care one bit for you, and are not interested in your solutions? The ones that wend out in droves to Paris to "stop gay Marriage!"? The ones.. yeah I can go on for a while...believe me these people will always vote Le'Penn as they are shitheads to begin with.

I'm not saying that. But the narrative should be about their own strengths, not pointing at the other side and saying that is worse. We have seen what strategies like that lead to.

France has a better system because you get 2 rounds of voting. But you still shouldn't have FN set the agenda.

 

[Frankfurter]

So Fillon is good news if you compare him to Sarkozy, but not really good news overall, right?

 

[Trickster]

FN feels invigourated by the economy, Brexit and the surge of populist hard right movements across the world.

Is Brexit really something that have helped these extreme right wing nuts? I know in my country (Denmark), Brexit seems to have had the opposite effect. Before brexit, around 40% of people wanted to leave EU, after brexit, that number fell to around 30%. In addition, support for the EU also rose around 10%.

And we were pegged by many as being the next country in line to leave. But I think if anything, Brexit served as a wakeup call to people that being part of EU isn't as part as many try to make it out to be

 

[GhostTrick]

I'm not saying that. But the narrative should be about their own strengths, not pointing at the other side and saying that is worse. We have seen what strategies like that lead to.

France has a better system because you get 2 rounds of voting. But you still shouldn't have FN set the agenda.

Thing is, when you debate with FN, it's either against their fantasy economy or against the ethnicity argument. You won't convince these people. This is why second turn may end up "for or against FN".

 

[Fularu]

Sarko's defeat is music to my ears

Fillion's victory was the second worst outcome. I hope peiple pick up Jupé in the second round.

We don't need a right wing christian as a president (because let's face it, Holland is done)

 

[KingSnake]

Again, Trump lost the popular vote even in US and there was only one round of voting. Practically Trump didn't win by the EU standards in terms of elections.

Stop using Trump as some example of how Le Pen can succeed.

 

[azyless]

So basically be nice to those that wish to put you in a camp, and really hurt you? The ones that don't care one bit for you, and are not interested in your solutions? The ones that wend out in droves to Paris to "stop gay Marriage!"? The ones.. yeah I can go on for a while...believe me these people will always vote Le'Penn as they are shitheads to begin with.

I can see Fillon getting a lot of the religious right votes actually. Maybe not on immigration but he was a huge supporter of La Manif Pour Tous for example.

 

[FDC1]

So Fillon is good news if you compare him to Sarkozy, but not really good news overall, right?

Basically, for Left voters, it would have been better if Juppe was in position to win. People who want a Right program without all Sarkozy excesses are OK with Fillon.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Ninja edit: On the less positive side, Fillon is a bit of a turdswinger. Still.

I was going to say, haha, Fillon didn't seem much better in the description.

 

[Fularu]

I was going to say, haha, Fillon didn't seem much better in the description.

He's less bling.

That's about it

 

[Jackpot]

Fillon's pretty shitty. He just hasn't used the more blatant dog-whistles or had Sarkozy's corruption scandals.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...efeated-primary-french-rightwing-presidential

Fillon, a socially conservative, free-market reformer who admires Margaret Thatcher and voted against same-sex marriage, came close to winning the nomination straight out, with around 43% of the poll.

Fillon voted against same-sex marriage when it was introduced by the Socialist president François Hollande, and had the support of the traditional Catholic right. Claiming to stand for Christian family values, he has campaigned against medically assisted procreation for single women or lesbian couples.

He surged in the polls in the final weeks of the campaign after publishing a book on the fight against radical Islam, saying “there isn’t a religious problem in France. Yes, there is a problem linked to Islam”. He said the solution was not to target law-abiding Muslims, but to target fundamentalism.

But he caused anger among a black rights association during the campaign when he referred to French colonialism as France “sharing our culture”.

Fillon has called for a rapprochement with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Syria. After the US election, he welcomed a new alliance between Putin and Trump. Asked early in the campaign whether France should cooperate with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to fight Islamic State, he said France should unite with all possible forces, “democratic or not”. He told the website Atlantico in October: “De Gaulle, Churchill, Roosevelt allied with Stalin to defeat nazism.”

 

[GhostTrick]

Sarko's defeat is music to my ears

Fillion's victory was the second worst outcome. I hope peiple pick up Jupé in the second round.

We don't need a right wing christian as a president (because let's face it, Holland is done)

Fillon basically won. 44% in the first round. Unless Juppé manage a miracle in the debate before... Sarkozy called to vote for Fillon.

 

[KingSnake]

Fillon has called for a rapprochement with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Syria. After the US election, he welcomed a new alliance between Putin and Trump. Asked early in the campaign whether France should cooperate with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to fight Islamic State, he said France should unite with all possible forces, “democratic or not”. He told the website Atlantico in October: “De Gaulle, Churchill, Roosevelt allied with Stalin to defeat nazism.”

This a very cynical approach, trying to throw the hot potato to Assad and hope that Assad can keep IS under control enough to not be a big issue for France anymore. I don't approve this, but I can see the appeal for trying it.

 

[KillerMan91]

Bad news though are coming from italy. Looks like Matteo Renzi is losing his gamble about referendum on constitutional reform (he promised to resign if it doesn't pass) which means new elections and big oppoturnity for eurosceptic parties to win.

 

[Frankfurter]

Bad news though are coming from italy. Looks like Matteo Renzi is losing his gamble about referendum on constitutional reform (he promised to resign if it doesn't pass) which means new elections and big oppoturnity for eurosceptic parties to win.

Oh come on :/ Renzi looked like a really decent politician for once.

 

[A Link to the Past]

He's less bling.

That's about it

It's kind of like the "Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump" alt history

 

[KingSnake]

Bad news though are coming from italy. Looks like Matteo Renzi is losing his gamble about referendum on constitutional reform (he promised to resign if it doesn't pass) which means new elections and big oppoturnity for eurosceptic parties to win.

What are the eurosceptic parties in Italy?

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

Its disheartening how people still downplay the danger.

 

[saturnine]

Cheering for Juppé. Can't believe it has come to this. And am I crazy or are some people in this thread hoping for Macron?

What does his height have to do with his past political behaviour?

Sarkozy is not only half of a man in stature, but in spirit too.

 

[SamVimes]

What are the eurosceptic parties in Italy?

Lega Nord (xenophobic), Movimento 5 Stelle (incompetent idiots) and Forza Italia (crooked).

Movimento 5 Stelle probably has the highest chance to win.

 

[Zyae]

Britain Failed
US Failed
France Won

 

[norinrad]

Poor Sarkozy, made a pact with the devil and ended up getting owned for it. This guy should be in prison for his involvement in Libya.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Poor Sarkozy, made a pact with the devil and ended up getting owned for it. This guy should be in prison for his involvement in Libya.

 

[Gurgelhals]

What are the eurosceptic parties in Italy?

Mainly the Five Star Movement, which at least isn't a far-right nationalist party, but, as I understand it, more of a chaotic and contradictory anti-establishment movement comparable perhaps to the Pirate Parties that popped up in several countries a few years ago.

The problem with the constitutional referendum in Italy has less to do with euroskepticism per se and more with the fact that it has been turned into a general referendum on the Renzi government. So it's basically everybody (the pro-european right, the eurosceptic right, anti-establishment protest parties, and the radical eurosceptic left) against Renzi and he's probably going to lose. Which is a problem, because he has promised to resign if he loses and the badly needed constitutional reforms won't happen as well. And that means it's going to be Italy's turn again to create more political uncertainty and instability within the European Union...

tl;dr: Yup, it's a mess alright :-/

 

[Palette Swap]

Its disheartening how people still downplay the danger.

We aren't downplaying the danger. Fillon is a danger in himself TBH, and I honestly don't know how competitive he can be in the election. He'll definitely siphon voters off Le Pen, but doing so, he's going to alienate a lot of people from the center and the left.

If 6 months ahead, we're predicting a duel between a hard religious and neoliberal right and a populist far right, it's pretty depressing.

 

[KingSnake]

And that means it's going to be Italy's turn again to create more political uncertainty and instability within the European Union...

tl;dr: Yup, it's a mess alright :-/

Isn't this the continuous state of Italian politics since I far as I can remember (80's)? Always a mess, coalitions, early elections over early elections and so on?

Lega Nord (xenophobic), Movimento 5 Stelle (incompetent idiots) and Forza Italia (crooked).

Movimento 5 Stelle probably has the highest chance to win.

Is there really a will to go out of EU? Would Lega Nord, Forza Italia and M5S be able to make a governing coalition?

 

[Frankfurter]

Basically, for Left voters, it would have been better if Juppe was in position to win. People who want a Right program without all Sarkozy excesses are OK with Fillon.

What's your take on Fillon vs. Le Pen? Is he more or less likely to win against her in a runoff compared to Sarko or Juppe?

(I assume you are from France and/or know French politics)

 

[Gurgelhals]

Isn't this the continuous state of Italian politics since I far as I can remember (80's)? Always a mess, coalitions, early elections over early elections and so on?

Is there really a will to go out of EU? Would Lega Nord, Forza Italia and M5S be able to make a governing coalition?

Politics in Italy have indeed been a complete mess for what seems like an eternity. I mean, the country went through more than 60(!) different governments since WWII (ironically it was Berlusconi of all people who managed to remain in office for one of the longest periods; he's one of the few prime ministers who actually managed to finish an entire term without having to call early elections).

Afaik, Renzi's constitutional reforms are intended to make Italy more governable (weakening the position of the Senate, etc.), so if he loses the referendum it's back to square one on that matter.

Also, if he resigns there's probably going to be another technocratic provisional government. I'm not sure about the numbers, but I can't see an anti-euro coalition between the Five Star Movement and the various far-right eurosceptic parties happening; there are just too many fundamental ideological differences. One is a chaotic and incompetent bunch of anti-establishment figures and the others are, well, your run-of-the-mill far-right populists.

At least Berlusconi seems to be done for good this time, so that counts for something I guess...

 

[G.O.O.]

Cheering for Juppé. Can't believe it has come to this. And am I crazy or are some people in this thread hoping for Macron?

openly pro-EU and for letting migrants in, also wasn't afraid to call on his own government's bullshit and doesn't want to act like France is an Island in the middle of the ocean

I don't agree on all of his policies (I'm a public servant after all, but it's not like we got a bright future anyway...) and think he isn't immune from the occasional bullshit but I honestly think he's the best realistic option...

(also, I'm really not sure Fillon can stay popular until may. He has the charisma of a dead fish, like Hollande but even Hollande had consistent polls before winning the primary and the general election)

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Still hoping Juppe can pull it off. He seems like a more rational centrist right choice. Fillon sounds like an asshole.

 

[azyless]

Still hoping Juppe can pull it off. He seems like a more rational centrist right choice. Fillon sounds like an asshole.

It won't happen. Fillon got 44%, Juppé 29% and the 20% who voted for Sarkozy are far more likely to vote for the former.

 

[mo60]

What's your take on Fillon vs. Le Pen? Is he more or less likely to win against her in a runoff compared to Sarko or Juppe?

(I assume you are from France and/or know French politics)

I don't live in france but Fillion does better in the polls against Le Pen compared to Sarkozy but a bit worse then Juppe. Pretty much everyone on the right will beat le pen in a landslide besides Sarkozy.

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Still hoping Juppe can pull it off. He seems like a more rational centrist right choice. Fillon sounds like an asshole.

Fillon only need less then half of Sarkozy's voter and everyone in Sarkozy's camp rallied behind him.

 

[BiggNife]

Just, please vote FranceGAF

I don't want to see "I didn't vote because I didn't think Le Pen could win!"

 

[20cent]

Sure, I will vote if Valls is anywhere near the election. Anyone opposed to him.

 

[KingSnake]

Just, please vote FranceGAF

I don't want to see "I didn't vote because I didn't think Le Pen could win!"

They will not vote in the first round and then they will wake up for the second round.

 

[Boney]

Good, but a Margaret fucking Thatcher fan boy was who spanked him.

But it's the primaries. Is Fillon popular across the board?

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Good, but a Margaret fucking Thatcher fan boy was who spanked him.

But it's the primaries. Is Fillon popular across the board?

As of now, not really.

His victory was a bit of a surprise, especially with such a huge difference.

The next few months will give a broader picture.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Do the smart thing and don't vote for an idiotic candidate who wants to leave the EU. It'll be even more of a clusterfuck because France uses the Euro. That Fillon is so ahead disappoints me, but anyone but Le Pen.

 

[johancruijff]

Mainly the Five Star Movement, which at least isn't a far-right nationalist party, but, as I understand it, more of a chaotic and contradictory anti-establishment movement comparable perhaps to the Pirate Parties that popped up in several countries a few years ago.

The problem with the constitutional referendum in Italy has less to do with euroskepticism per se and more with the fact that it has been turned into a general referendum on the Renzi government. So it's basically everybody (the pro-european right, the eurosceptic right, anti-establishment protest parties, and the radical eurosceptic left) against Renzi and he's probably going to lose. Which is a problem, because he has promised to resign if he loses and the badly needed constitutional reforms won't happen as well. And that means it's going to be Italy's turn again to create more political uncertainty and instability within the European Union...

tl;dr: Yup, it's a mess alright :-/

If No wins and Renzi resign, can you imagine voting in the next election with the Consultellum?

 

[andythinkpad]

Britain Failed
US Failed
France Won

Fillon is basically the Theresa May of France.

You are just happy its not Boris Johnson.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

So Fillon is good news if you compare him to Sarkozy, but not really good news overall, right?

It's the right wing primaries. Honestly, what can you expect? Fillon is good news for fans of moderatism.

 

[Morrigan Stark]

To be fair, Fillon had this horrible line, talking about colonisation of Africa or Asia, claiming that France isn't guilty for sharing its culture to the people of these continents...

Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow fuck this piece of shit

FranceGAF: is it really going to be this guy against Le Pen in the general election? Is there really no decent moderate or leftist candidate that has a shot in the GE? Because fuuuuuu.... That's like having to choose between Ted Cruz and Mike Pence or something.

I expect Montréal to have even more French immigrants than we have now some time soon... xD

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Fillon is basically the Theresa May of France.

You are just happy its not Boris Johnson.

I wouldn't go that far.

Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow fuck this piece of shit

FranceGAF: is it really going to be this guy against Le Pen in the general election? Is there really no decent moderate or leftist candidate that has a shot in the GE? Because fuuuuuu.... That's like having to choose between Ted Cruz and Mike Pence or something.

I expect Montréal to have even more French immigrants than we have now some time soon... xD

There's basically no chance for the left or the center to win the election, as the candidate in the right primary said in the debate, the right as to fuck up immensely to not win the election.

 

[Morrigan Stark]

There's basically no chance for the left or the center to win the election, as the candidate in the right primary said in the debate, the right as to fuck up immensely to not win the election.

Well that's not good...

 

[Pacbois]

aaah, never change Libé...

 

[Easy_D]

They will not vote in the first round and then they will wake up for the second round.

That two-round system seems pretty cool, is it kind of like a "What if?" scenario that coaxes people into voting when the initial results are terrible?