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April 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 9th
hanspampel
Banned
prediction Topic is dead
Switch sold ~114k in April
when Nintendo PR did not make a mistake, or i understand something completely wrong
Switch sold ~114k in April
when Nintendo PR did not make a mistake, or i understand something completely wrong
So, this seems impossible.
http://gonintendo.com/stories/279295-noa-pr-mario-kart-8-deluxe-for-nintendo-switch-is-the-fastest-s
45% attach rate would put Switch LTD at 1020K or 114K in April. That seems exceedingly unlikely ...
http://gonintendo.com/stories/279295-noa-pr-mario-kart-8-deluxe-for-nintendo-switch-is-the-fastest-s
Nintendo said:
45% attach rate would put Switch LTD at 1020K or 114K in April. That seems exceedingly unlikely ...
DriftingSpirit
Member
Poor stock?
Primethius
Banned
Seems like a supply constraint issue if the numbers are correct.
This would be a really huge stock issue though. I still don't believe it.
CorporateClown
Member
[NSW] 333K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 135K
Might change, depending on how that pr statement plays out.
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 135K
Might change, depending on how that pr statement plays out.
Primethius
Banned
Yea, it really doesn't seem right at all.
hanspampel
Banned
Possible, but still even for low stock that number is abysmal low
In Japan Switch sold 40 - 50k each week in April
and in general the US is way bigger than JP for Nintendo.
especially for initial Hardware allocations.
or there was really 0 new Switch stock until the end of April.
we need some supply and retailer insight on this.
i just know both Amazon and Gamestop got new stocks for the last week of April / earl May
IF March - third week of April was really 0 new stock , that low number could be correct
But could also be just a mistake. i don't know
They flew in more Switch consoles to meet demands. That's not a solution a company wants to take (it costs a shitton more money) if it's not absolutely required. So, it might be possible to be honest.
Primethius
Banned
I think that's still fairy new thread worthy? Maybe get some discussion going on it?
Should I/someone make one?
Should I/someone make one?
OrbitalBeard
Member
I don't think Nintendo's willing to give any hints of April hardware #s, resulting in that awkward PR. I'd be pretty shocked if April stock were that low. Pretty sure they're basing the MK8 attach rate on March numbers only.
What PR ?
PR is "clear" though : " The solid sales numbers for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe equate to an attach rate of 45 percent meaning nearly one in two Nintendo Switch owners in the U.S. purchased a copy of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on the first day it was available. "
The Mario Kart thingy.
ah based on the 45% attach rate figure
OrbitalBeard
Member
It's very possible they're basing this only on the publicly-available hardware numbers, which are through the end of March.
Or not. We'll know soon enough. That'd be some brutal supply constraints though if it's based on April's numbers. Significantly lower than Japan, even.
Let'see if we'll be able to top March 2014.
Maybe stock targeted for April was air shipped in March leaving first weeks of April completely bone dry. Seems an extreme situation, though. Definitely need some first-hand stock reports (*Abdiel signal*) to see if this is feasible. (^_^)
I agree. Might be alot of things going on. Limited stock, based on old numbers, a simple error by Nintendo. Will be interesting to see.
Welfare
Member
Everyone thought Switch would be #1 but really it's #3.
That will be a shit thread and I can already see trolls coming in with Wii U posts and how this thing was DOA and all that crap.
Does not make sense then. Either something is off in the numbers provided by PR or they had really huge supply issues. Strange though.
That's assuming the 1020k number is for April. I think it isn't. From last NPD we know they sold through 906k, but that does not negate the possibility of a shipment going out in the closing days of March to the US, increasing the number shipped to 1020k. This would obviously not be reflected in the NPD results of last month because the units hadn't arrived in stores yet, but it does count towards the total shipped number for the US in March that I think the PR is referencing.
*puts on consipracy hat*
Maybe Nintendo used the MKWii numbers (right next to the attach rate part) by mistake and switched the last two digits of March's sales.
433.9K/960K => 45.2%
Or maybe they took the shipped numbers to The Americas through Mrach and switched the last two numbers of that total.
459K/1020K => 45%
Maybe Nintendo used the MKWii numbers (right next to the attach rate part) by mistake and switched the last two digits of March's sales.
433.9K/960K => 45.2%
Or maybe they took the shipped numbers to The Americas through Mrach and switched the last two numbers of that total.
459K/1020K => 45%
leaving the misspellings in for proper seasoning
Welfare
Member
But Nintendo references Switch "owners" which would mean sell through, not shipped.
ethomaz
Banned
lol that a lot of mistakes to do by a PR team
I would think the PR team extrapolates that all the units shipped for March will have been sold by the end of April, so in that sense it's really not surprising that they word it this way. They are working with the numbers they want to have public.
ethomaz
Banned
They are allowed to publish any number... Nintendo internal, NPD, etc... they are the owner of the data.
Others needs to ask them if they can share data including NPD.
Let me rephrase that: they are working with the numbers they want to publicise, which are the numbers for March or, more precisely, for the last fiscal year and last quarter.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I mean, it's not that hard to believe that Nintendo might want to save April's hardware numbers for another big PR moment in a couple weeks.
That would make the numbers go off the charts in the other direction tbh: it would mean they sold more Switches in April than they did in March, their launch month.
Sangetsu-II
Member
[NSW] 340K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 125K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 125K
Yeah just realized it would mean a near 1m unit sale number in April alone.
Mmh.
Edit: I mean, I don't think it's impossible, if unlikely. The thirst of WiiU owners for Switching (pun intended) seems real, and there are reports of Ninty air shipping units.
Edit2: I re brained, and no, it wouldn't mean that the # would be gigantic, because the MK8 unit sold are total physical+ digital, and with a userbase made of Switch units sold in both March and April. So it still doesn't make sense.
But then you're back to the Switch shipping only 114k in April, which is off the charts just as much.
Frankly, this is a non-discussion imo, because it can be perfectly explained by realising that 1020k is the shipped (not sold, which we know is 906k) amount for March that they are working with.
But wouldn't that make the pr piece blatantly false? A userbase actually owns the console, by definition it's got to be sold through...
Edit: I'm going to go with the "somebody bungled the pr and numbers" theory atm I think
astrogamer
Member
[NSW] 350k
[PS4] 219k
[XB1] 184k
[PS4] 219k
[XB1] 184k
That's because they are producing this PR at the end of April: they are, at least that what I believe, working under the (very reasonable) assumption that the Switch sold through that 1020k number that was shipped for March at the time of writing. Therefore, they can state it is sold-through without any ethical problems.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
It's very weird either way. If they're working with shipped why not use that of April's to a point also unless they shipped absolutely nothing in April. Why make the attach ratio statement at all. Either things went very badly with the switch or the PR.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
[NSW] 114k
j/k
As said in the other thread, something feels extremely off between the major nation-wide restock last week and the few restocks during the month. Potentially, last week in Japan could've amounted for nearly as much units as the extrapolated 114,000 units for US. It seems sincerly implausible, I just don't get it.
Yeah i'm not putting much stock in it, and leaving my prediction as is. If it's correct then that is a disaster in terms of supply.