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[duckroll]

Charlie Hunam's agent, telling him to go on a quest for better work.

/dead

 

[kswiston]

<snip>

[U]Predictions[/U]
Pre:        $5.6M
Fri:       $22.2M/$16.6M  
Sat:       $18.3M         -17.57%/+10.24%
Sun:       $16.5M          -9.84%
Mon:       $12.6M         -23.64%

OW (FSS):  $57.0M
2nd:       $20.2M         -64.56%
3rd:       $10.3M         -49.01%
4th:        $7.0M         -32.04%

DOM:       $147M
INT:       $560M
WW:        $707M

[U]The Leftovers [/U]                 [U]3-day[/U]                 
2) Baywatch                    $25.2M                
3) Guardians of the Galaxy 2   $21.9M     -36.80%
4) Alien: Covenant             $12.7M     -64.88%
5) Everything, Everything       $7.1M     -39.47%
6) Snatched                     $4.5M     -42.53%
7) King Arthur                  $3.5M     -51.05%
8) The Boss Baby                $1.8M     -36.84%
9) Fate of the Furious          $1.7M     -47.37%
10) Beauty and the Beast        $1.6M     -37.25%

• Guardians 2 will be looking at easily its best hold to date. It has shown some great weekdays numbers, and with the same studio double-feature effect, it may end up holding even better than I'm predicting.
• Alien: Covenant, on the other hand, is in a rough spot. Historically, R-rated blockbusters do not have strong Friday increases. If it performs like Mad Max percentage over the weekend, it would gross a little under $14M. I am expecting worse here due to extremely mixed word of mouth.
• There isn't much else going on with the rest of the holdovers. Some sharp theater drops will prevent very strong holds for a number of films, including King Arthur.

Good Analysis. It looks like you dropped Pirates even further from yesterday.

China is looking like at least $20M opening night including midnights. I guess that China has some holidays coming up, so Pirates could exceed $100M in its first week. I wouldn't expect much for legs though. Maybe $140-160M total? I am not all that great with Chinese multipliers, given the extreme variability between film runs.

EDIT: If your domestic numbers are close, it could be a toss up for biggest PotC5 territory between domestic and China.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

I hate to say it, but...

Even if my low prediction ends up happening, I can definitely see them deciding to do a 6th one with Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley as main characters.

Yes, more dispassionate on-screen pairings that are a black hole of chemistry and appeal. Surely that's at the heart of the success of the last several Fast/Furious films.

 

[Dominator]

King Arthur has an after credits scene? lol. Who shows up? Merlin? Lancelot?

Fuck I just got out of it and left right when the credits started thinking this of all movies wouldn't have anything. Now I'm pissed lol I didn't even hate the movie either.

 

[Bronx-Man]

I hate to say it, but...

Even if my low prediction ends up happening, I can definitely see them deciding to do a 6th one with Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley as main characters.

why god why

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I wonder if Charlie Hunam is looking at the King Arthur grosses and second guessing turning down Fifty Shades of Grey. I mean, it is trading shit for shit, but at least one of those shits makes money.

 

[Prompto]

If Pirates is a box office dissapointment, does Brenton Thwaites become Charlie Hunam/Taylor Kitsch tier? Keeps getting leading roles despite repeated box office failures.

 

[kswiston]

I wonder if Charlie Hunam is looking at the King Arthur grosses and second guessing turning down Fifty Shades of Grey. I mean, it is trading shit for shit, but at least one of those shits makes money.

I suppose on paper being King Arthur sounds cooler than being Postmenopausal wank material.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I suppose on paper being King Arthur sounds cooler than being Postmenopausal wank material.

 

[Slayven]

I wonder if Charlie Hunam is looking at the King Arthur grosses and second guessing turning down Fifty Shades of Grey. I mean, it is trading shit for shit, but at least one of those shits makes money.

Nah, i think he will get a pass, cause people saying Arthur was all on Ritchie

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Nah, i think he will get a pass, cause people saying Arthur was all on Ritchie

Hunam just sticking around for the Undeclared movie.
Or the Nicholas Nickleby cinematic universe.

 

[jett]

Hunam just sticking around for the Undeclared movie.
Or the Nicholas Nickleby cinematic universe.

His best movie still.

 

[Slayven]

Hunam just sticking around for the Undeclared movie.
Or the Nicholas Nickleby cinematic universe.

He was in Crimson Peak.....shame about that

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

I mean, the biggest thing stopping a Pirates 6 from happening is their complete and utter inability to rein the budgets the fuck in. There's so much potential for a reasonably budgeted small-scale adventure film in the vein of the original, but they keep blowing $300 fucking million on epic sea battles, CGI zombie armies, and liberal amounts of coke and heroine for Johnny and his pal Keith.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Yes, more dispassionate on-screen pairings that are a black hole of chemistry and appeal. Surely that's at the heart of the success of the last several Fast/Furious films.

why god why

lmao

I do remember my pirates 2 and 3 midnight screenings were full of fangirls who were all in on Will/Elizabeth relationship, so maybe there's something there that can get people excited? They're clearly trying to get that fanbase with this young couple in 5, but New Coke never fools anyone.

 

[kswiston]

The Chinese box office board at BOT is reporting that Paramount made a $130M+ minimum guarantee cut for Transformers 5 in China. That seems quite high given that they would typically get 25% of the box office gross, and TF5 isn't going to make $500M in China. I don't know how those deals work, but I assume that they basically sold the film to Chinese distributors, even though it was a profit sharing film. If they can continue doing that, the franchise is never going to end. That's over half of the production budget subsidized.


Also, Wonder Woman opened for presales in China and the first day results are terrible. Maybe it will pick up, but I wouldn't expect the typical $100M+ superhero gross based on what we are seeing. China is getting sneak previews on May 31st, so maybe they are hoping for WOM.

 

[Sean C]

I mean, the biggest thing stopping a Pirates 6 from happening is their complete and utter inability to rein the budgets the fuck in. There's so much potential for a reasonably budgeted small-scale adventure film in the vein of the original, but they keep blowing $300 fucking million on epic sea battles, CGI zombie armies, and liberal amounts of coke and heroine for Johnny and his pal Keith.

The first film was not small-scale. Its budget, adjusted for inflation, was almost $200 million.

 

[kswiston]

The first film was not small-scale. Its budget, adjusted for inflation, was almost $200 million.

Ya. The original was considered a pretty big risk before release.


But $200M would be a scaled-back budget compared to everything after.

 

[hodayathink]

I mean, the biggest thing stopping a Pirates 6 from happening is their complete and utter inability to rein the budgets the fuck in. There's so much potential for a reasonably budgeted small-scale adventure film in the vein of the original, but they keep blowing $300 fucking million on epic sea battles, CGI zombie armies, and liberal amounts of coke and heroine for Johnny and his pal Keith.

Even ignoring the zombies and shit (since, you know, the first movie had undead pirates as villains as well), you cannot make a seafaring blockbuster cheaply, for the most part. Building boats is expensive. Shooting at sea/on water is expensive. Now, it doesn't need to be this expensive, but you're probably still looking at somewhere between $150-250 million with the budgets reigned in.

 

[duckroll]

The Chinese box office board at BOT is reporting that Paramount made a $130M+ minimum guarantee cut for Transformers 5 in China. That seems quite high given that they would typically get 25% of the box office gross, and TF5 isn't going to make $500M in China. I don't know how those deals work, but I assume that they basically sold the film to Chinese distributors, even though it was a profit sharing film. If they can continue doing that, the franchise is never going to end. That's over half of the production budget subsidized.

Why would you want it to end? Do you hate me or something? China's doing God's work here.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Johnny and his pal Keith.

Is this a Galavant reference?

Spoiler

I know you mean Keith Richards

Ya. The original was considered a pretty big risk before release.


But $200M would be a scaled-back budget compared to everything after.

Especially since I think the first movie's budget is the most accurate.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

The original Pirates was expected to be the bomb of the summer. It was based a theme-park ride and the closest comparison is Cutthroat Island, so how could you not?

Also, I think the marketing got started pretty late. For the longest time, this teaser was the only thing people had to go on.

Good Analysis. It looks like you dropped Pirates even further from yesterday.

I'm getting reminded a lot of how Depp's last few blockbusters had expectations go lower and lower, and then still fall well short of expectations. I'm seeing it tonight, so I'll be interested to see how the crowd reacts to it.

 

[kswiston]

Why would you want it to end? Do you hate me or something? China's doing God's work here.

I was just making an observation. I am good at ignoring movies that I don't want to see, so they can make 20 Bayformers films if they want to. I still haven't seen Revenge of the Fallen. I did see Dark of the Moon and about 2/3s of Age of Extinction though (along with the first film).

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I was just making an observation. I am good at ignoring movies that I don't want to see, so they can make 20 Bayformers films if they want to. I still haven't seen Revenge of the Fallen. I did see Dark of the Moon and about 2/3s of Age of Extinction though (along with the first film).

If you already committed 29 hours of your life to a movie, you might as well finish it!

 

[duckroll]

If you already committed 29 hours of your life to a movie, you might as well finish it!

Especially since that last 10 hours or so has the best visuals in the film!

 

[Slayven]

If you already committed 29 hours of your life to a movie, you might as well finish it!

That movie was long as hell and the last 90 minutes is just noise and color.

 

[duckroll]

That movie was long as hell and the last 90 minutes is just noise and color.

You take that back. Hong Kong was fucking cool.

 

[Slayven]

You take that back. Hong Kong was fucking cool.

Only the boxer scene and Li Bingbing

 

[Bronx-Man]

Age of Extinction is legit the only movie I've ever seen in my life to cause my eyes feel actual pain.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

You take that back. Hong Kong was fucking cool.

"The central government will protect Hong Kong at any cost!"

I'm excited to see what kind of China pandering happens in TF5

 

[Slayven]

Age of Extinction is legit the only movie I've ever seen in my life to cause my eyes feel actual pain.

I watched at home and i still kept checking my watch. I bet the movie could be edited down to a smooth 90 minutes

 

[kswiston]

If you already committed 29 hours of your life to a movie, you might as well finish it!

I saw from the part just before they killed TJ Miller, to around the time that they were riding dinosaurs through Hong Kong. It was on network TV so it was more like 45 hours long.

 

[duckroll]

Age of Extinction is legit the only movie I've ever seen in my life to cause my eyes feel actual pain.

I watched it in IMAX 3D on opening day and about halfway through one of the bright lens flashes of sunlight when they came out of Lockdown's ship or something literally blinded my right eye temporarily for a minute. My eyes watered, I took off both sets of glasses (fucking 3D!!!!) wiped my eyes, closed them for a moment, and relaxed before resuming partaking in Bay's glory.

I'm ready to suffer again soon.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

And suffer you shall!

 

[duckroll]

When Prime goes "FORGIVE ME" before trying to decapitate Bumblebee, I will relate because that's Michael Bay and me.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

This time, you have to find a 4DX screen. I read a review of someone's experience watching Age of Extinction in 4DX and it sounded like it would break Jack Bauer

 

[Timu]

We deserve this.

Hopefully it's better than the 1st one.

 

[Slayven]

I saw from the part just before they killed TJ Miller, to around the time that they were riding dinosaurs through Hong Kong. It was on network TV so it was more like 45 hours long.

I totally forget what the humans were doing in that movie, i checked out on them when the boyfriend showed up

 

[Discotheque]

Green Lanterned?

The Sinestro Corps teaser at the end basically rubbed it in your face that there was now zero chance of ever seeing the Sinestro Corps War adapted to film. Green Lantern was so thoroughly tarnished that he got demoted from being a founding Justice League member in the DCEU.

still pretty annoyed at that piece of crap green lantern movie. his absolute shitted up rep is the reason why we don't get to see snyder's take on the character in justice league

i think he could have done some cool shit with that one.

 

[kswiston]

I totally forget what the humans were doing in that movie, i checked out on them when the boyfriend showed up

Not statutory raping.

 

[Bronx-Man]

I still remember when Gunface took that one guy into his giant ship and I thought to myself, "It's been two hours and this still hasn't entered the 3rd act."

You could pay top money for a picture of my face when I realized that.

 

[MHWilliams]

why god why

Because Captain Jack is funny, but carries nearly no emotional weight. He's not the one you want to anchor a film.

Put him in it, sure, but your need a straight man or woman to anchor the film.

 

[Slayven]

I still remember when Gunface took that one guy into his giant ship and I thought to myself, "It's been two hours and this still hasn't entered the 3rd act."

You could pay top money for a picture of my face when I realized that.

2 hours of a whole lot of nothing,

I would pay good money for a movie transformer's timeline

Cause if Bumble Bee was lighting up Nazi's in WW2, seems like something that should be in the history books

Because Captain Jack is funny, but carries nearly no emotional weight. He's not the one you want to anchor a film.

Put him in it, sure, but your need a straight man or woman to anchor the film.

He is the Joker of the franchise, they are so scared of defining him as a human being.

 

[kswiston]

I don't have much interest in Pirates 5, but I am interested in knowing how many times a year Disney will use effects wizardry to de-age older actors to their 20-30 something former selves. That seems to be their thing in every Disney film I see these days.

 

[Rhaknar]

Guardians 2 is doing kinda shitty internationally isnt it? :/

 

[Slayven]

I don't have much interest in Pirates 5, but I am interested in knowing how many times a year Disney will use effects wizardry to de-age older actors to their 20-30 something former selves. That seems to be their thing in every Disney film I see these days.

It feels like a dry run for something big

 

[J_Viper]

Yes, more dispassionate on-screen pairings that are a black hole of chemistry and appeal. Surely that's at the heart of the success of the last several Fast/Furious films.

If you're saying Pirates 6 needs to add The Rock & Statham, I'd pay good money for that

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

"The Pirate's Champion" has a nice ring to it.

 

[Slayven]

If you're saying Pirates 6 needs to add The Rock & Statham, I'd pay good money for that

The Rock as a Maori warrior? I can fuck with that

 

[kswiston]

It feels like a dry run for something big

Kurt Russell in GotG 2 was pretty convincing. I guess that was a mixture of practical makeup effects and CGI. The pure CGI methods need more time in the oven though.