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Wkd BO 06•23-25•17 - Transformers snore than meets the eye, Woman keeps up with Cars

B

BumRush

Member
Looking at release dates and after this insane string of films ending with Dunkirk, the BO dies down hard for a month or so.

Are we a year or two from seeing August become another massive release month?
 
J

J_Viper

Member
Cooter said:
Damn. Say what you want about the DCEU and the quality of the films but when you see these numbers you understand why WB is ramping up to release 3 films per year.
Click to expand...

It's too bad that if JL is a hit, they have no other films to capitalize on that until December of next year
 
K

kswiston

Member
Looks like Rth dropped Baby Driver down to $6.5M and Deadline is saying $5.7M

Both of those are still decent, but not as excitingly breakout.

I didn't comment last night, but $4.7M for Transformers is stronger than the early reports. Wonder Woman might have to settle for #4.
 
G

gamz

Member
kswiston said:
Looks like Rth dropped Baby Driver down to $6.5M and Deadline is saying $5.7M

Both of those are still decent, but not as excitingly breakout.

I didn't comment last night, but $4.7M for Transformers is stronger than the early reports. Wonder Woman might have to settle for #4.
Click to expand...

Is WW going to break 700M WW this weekend?
 
S

Sulik2

Member
BumRush said:
Looking at release dates and after this insane string of films ending with Dunkirk, the BO dies down hard for a month or so.

Are we a year or two from seeing August become another massive release month?
Click to expand...

The first guardians success should have already taught studios that August is viable and they should have already been using it more.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
Looking at release dates and after this insane string of films ending with Dunkirk, the BO dies down hard for a month or so.

Are we a year or two from seeing August become another massive release month?
Click to expand...

Studios will eventually have to push into August on a more regular basis. August 2018 looks stronger than this year, but nothing strikes me as Suicide Squad/GOTG big. Too many films are unannounced for 2019/2020 to judge.

gamz said:
Is WW going to break 700M WW this weekend?
Click to expand...

Yes. Mojo hasn't updated the foreign gross all week, but Wonder Woman should at least be past $675M as of Thursday. Maybe $680M. The domestic Weekend will be $15M, give or take $1M.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Random Human said:
I don't think you can do that anymore with these sort of returns.
Click to expand...

3928051-wh3itxe.gif
 
K

kswiston

Member
Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Despicable Me 3 - $29.2M
2) Baby Driver - $6.0M - $15M total
3) Transformers 5 - $4.9M (-64%) - $90M total
4) Wonder Woman - $4.35M (-41%) - $345M total
5) The House - $3.4M
6) Cars 3 - $3.0M (-61%) - $114 total
7) 47 Meters Down - $1.4M (-41%) - $29M total
8) The Beguiled - $1.0M from 674 venues
9) The Mummy - $770k (-56%) - $72M total
10) Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - $725k (-57%) - $164M total
11) Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - $410k (-54%) - $382M total


EDIT GotG2 is starting to slow down. $390M might be difficult unless Disney does a re-expansion at some point. This puts the race between it and Wonder Woman in contention. Next week will be pretty crucial.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
kswiston said:
Still waiting on Transformers.
Click to expand...

"Fred, how about we try this"
"I'm all ears"
"How about... we just don't report anything."
"We can't do that"
"Sure we can! They'll just forget about it after a day or so."
"Hmm. You might be onto something. I'll run it past Mike"
"Where'd he go"
"I think he ducked behind that TV over there and exploded?"
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
The House is going to have the lowest debut of any wide release starring Will Ferrell since 2000. For leading roles, it is his worst ever.

If there's going to be an R rated comedy breakout this summer, the only option left is Girls Trip.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
The House is going to have the lowest debut of any wide release starring Will Ferrell since 2000. For leading roles, it is his worst ever.

If there's going to be an R rated comedy breakout this summer, the only option left is Girls Trip.
Click to expand...

So what you are saying is there will not be a breakout R rated comedy this summer?
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
I hope Justin Lin is waiting outside of the Paramount Executive Offices showing them the T5 numbers to convince them to give him Star Trek.

He could adapt the comic set after Beyond where the Borg show up and they have to do a Best of Both Worlds with Spock.
 
K

kswiston

Member
It looks like DM3 is down from Minions everywhere. $1B is in serious doubt, and there's an outside chance that GotG2 will win the summer worldwide.

This could end up being the first summer without a $1B+ film since 2009.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
The House is going to have the lowest debut of any wide release starring Will Ferrell since 2000. For leading roles, it is his worst ever.

If there's going to be an R rated comedy breakout this summer, the only option left is Girls Trip.
Click to expand...

Yeah it seems the R rated or "raunchy" comedies are really struggling this year.

I guess none of them have just had a strong enough hook to really pull audiences in?
 
F

FTF

Member
kswiston said:
It looks like DM3 is down from Minions everywhere. $1B is in serious doubt, and there's an outside chance that GotG2 will win the summer worldwide.

This could end up being the first summer without a $1B+ film since 2009.
Click to expand...

There's a slight chance Spider-Man wins the summer WW...also, last Apes did $710m ww, so that also has a very slight chance.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
FTF said:
There's a slight chance Spider-Man wins the summer WW...also, last Apes did $710m ww, so that also has a very slight chance.
Click to expand...

I think Spidey will be the one to watch vs Guardians 2.

Have a feeling Apes will be down from the last film at least domestically.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
It looks like DM3 is down from Minions everywhere. $1B is in serious doubt, and there's an outside chance that GotG2 will win the summer worldwide.

This could end up being the first summer without a $1B+ film since 2009.
Click to expand...

Wow, I expected DM to clean up
 
O

Obliterator

Member
FTF said:
Yeah, sandwiched between Spidey and Dunkirk does Apes no favors.
Click to expand...

I like the earlier analogy that was being used comparing it to Stat Trek Beyond. Well reviewed but it just doesn't seem to be grabbing the spotlight to larger audiences (at least my impression) in the build up so far. I'm not seeing a ton of buzz for it.

I mean I hope it does big numbers, this trilogy has been amazing I just get the vibe it's gonna underperform a bit
 
J

jett

D-Member
kswiston said:
If The Last Knight does indeed have a $14M weekend, the same legs as Age of Extinction after this weekend will give it a domestic total of $125M.

Here's how long it took the previous films to clear $125M domestic.

Transformers - 5 days
Revenge of the Fallen - 3 days
Dark of the Moon - 4 days
Age of Extinction - 6 days
Click to expand...

Time for this franchise to die.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
PhoncipleBone said:
So what you are saying is there will not be a breakout R rated comedy this summer?
Click to expand...
Slayven is gonna get ya for this one.

kswiston said:
It looks like DM3 is down from Minions everywhere. $1B is in serious doubt, and there's an outside chance that GotG2 will win the summer worldwide.

This could end up being the first summer without a $1B+ film since 2009.
Click to expand...
If that happens, this will be the first summer without a $900M WW gross since 2005. Harry Potter kept that going for 2009 and 2007.

It's pretty crazy how much Fate of the Furious and Beauty and the Beast humble the summer releases this year.

Obliterator said:
Yeah it seems the R rated or "raunchy" comedies are really struggling this year.

I guess none of them have just had a strong enough hook to really pull audiences in?
Click to expand...
They've all gotten pretty terrible reviews, but even then, Rough Night and The House opening to $8M is just shockingly bad.

It will be interesting to see if the Girls Trip trailer betting the farm on Jada Pinkett Smith taking a piss in the middle of Bourbon Street will pay off.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
kswiston said:
It looks like DM3 is down from Minions everywhere. $1B is in serious doubt, and there's an outside chance that GotG2 will win the summer worldwide.

This could end up being the first summer without a $1B+ film since 2009.
Click to expand...

Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
If that happens, this will be the first summer without a $900M WW gross since 2005. Harry Potter kept that going for 2009 and 2007.

It's pretty crazy how much Fate of the Furious and Beauty and the Beast humble the summer releases this year.
Click to expand...

I think this might actually be the consequence of having so many good movies come out back to back to back. Audiences switch to the new darling every week and eventually, that starts eating into each other. I love it, but I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing a lot more blockbusters coming out in April & August after this year.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Spider-Man completely slipped my mind. That could win too, but I still don't know if we will see anything over $1B.

Apes is going to hit the exchange rate wall. Dawn would have been around $600M with today's rates. I dont think that it has any shot at taking #1.
 
F

FTF

Member
kswiston said:
Spider-Man completely slipped my mind. That could win too, but I still don't know if we will see anything over $1B.

Apes is going to hit the exchange rate wall. Dawn would have been around $600M with today's rates. I dont think that it has any shot at taking #1.
Click to expand...

Damn, ouch. Had no idea rates were that bad atm.
 
W

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
The House is going to have the lowest debut of any wide release starring Will Ferrell since 2000. For leading roles, it is his worst ever.

If there's going to be an R rated comedy breakout this summer, the only option left is Girls Trip.
Click to expand...

The past few years have been pretty awful for comedies. I mean there was a golden age from 2004 - 2014, but there have been no real new stars in a while. Hell the past few years have just been Zac Effron doing the majority of the work. Amy Schumer's Trainwreck might have been luck since Snatched bombed.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Yep I think this summer doesn't have a film that will hit the Billy but we will get a film to $900. I think Spidey will manage it.

Reviews are very solid, Spidey is big internationally, and the RDJ X factor should make it no 1 for the summer I think.

I'm still sticking for now with Guardians winning the summer domestic but Spidey taking the crown globally
 
L

LordOfLore

Banned
Do we have any numbers on how well the Titanic 3D release did? With Terminator 2 3D getting a new trailer I'm kind of wondering how well it'll do in August.
 
L

Lima

Member
It's so confusing when you are talking about Girls Night because in Germany Rough Night is called Girl's Night Out (yeah don't ask).

I have to do a double take every time to make sure I'm thinking of the right movie.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
LordOfLore said:
Do we have any numbers on how well the Titanic 3D release did? With Terminator 2 3D getting a new trailer I'm kind of wondering how well it'll do in August.
Click to expand...
$58M domestic

3D re-releases peaked domestically with the Lion King and pretty quickly dropped into the $40M range. The last noteworthy one was Jurassic Park 3D, I believe

Slayven said:
I agree with him.

girls night will do well, and have solid legs but it's not going to take the box office by storm.
Click to expand...
For some reason, I thought you had high expectations for Girls Trip.

edit: Oh, this is why

Slayven said:
Kswizzle write this down.

Girls trip will out perform Rough Night relative to their budgets
Click to expand...

That does seem likely now. :lol
 
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