• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2017 (Aug 07 - Aug 13)

T

TheLegendaryN

Member
Shizuka said:
What's the last known number for Splatoon (Wii U)?
Click to expand...

1.532.079 as of Dec 25, 2016 if I'm correct.

L~A said:
Dengeki data is out, for those interested:

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/576/1576726/

They have The Snack World at 85k, with 55% sell-through (so about 160k units shipped?). They note that it's better than Inazuma Eleven (38k) and Yo-kai Watch (54k), but worse than Little Battlers (at launch, obviously). However, they also point out that anime has already started so upcoming weeks/months will tell us what to expect from it.

Well, second week has part of Obon week, so 3rd week is when things will get interesting.
Click to expand...

The anime of both Inazuma Eleven and Yo-kai Watch didn't air until months after the release of the games, which wasn't the case with LBX and also isn't the case with The Snack World. Hopefully Level-5 will improve the situation in preparation for the mobile release, but I'm afraid this is gonna flop.
 
Eolz

Eolz

Member
noshten said:
MCGAF PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017(Switch and Splatoon 2 Edition)

11 predictions for Switch doing less than 2.1 million in 2017
5 predictions for Switch doing more than 3.5 million in 2017

20 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing less than 1.6 million in 2017
3 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing more than 2.4 million in 2017
Click to expand...

Seems that I was for 2.2M Switch and 1.1M Splatoon.
Don't know what I was thinking for Splatoon, but I'm still believing it won't be that much more for Switch (aka not 3.5M).
 
Polygonal_Sprite

Polygonal_Sprite

Member
KtSlime said:
Every combined November/December for the Wii U.

2012 627,287
2013 371,382
2014 170,180
2015 358,969
2016 34,906

All 5 holiday seasons combined total 1,562,724, or a little less than half of the LTD.

If not supply constrained, the Switch can sell this amount during November and December this year no problem.
Click to expand...

Skittzo0413 said:
Look at the Wii U's LTD in the OP, it's 3.3 million. One holiday season with 2-2.5m would mean it only sold ~1m the rest of its entire lifetime.
Click to expand...

Thanks guys! For some reason I thought it sold 500k+ for each November + December for a couple of Holiday seasons.
 
B

Bronetta

Ask me about the moon landing or the temperature at which jet fuel burns. You may be surprised at what you learn.
Splatoon 2 is pretty much a lock for 1 million next week right?

Took less than a month on an extremely supply constrained console. Thats beyond impressive.
 
F

Fisico

Member
noshten said:
MCGAF PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017(Switch and Splatoon 2 Edition)

11 predictions for Switch doing less than 2.1 million in 2017
5 predictions for Switch doing more than 3.5 million in 2017

20 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing less than 1.6 million in 2017
3 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing more than 2.4 million in 2017
Click to expand...

It would be nice to have the whole context.
It's fine to pick the data you wish to display but without knowing the exact sample it has no real meaning, especially for the Switch one, how many people predicted between 2.1 and 3.5M for Switch? What is the average? The median?

We all know Switch surpassed almost everyone expectations and that you like to point it out every few weeks, but if you do so at least give the whole set of data otherwise it's just console wars stuff material.

2.77M Switch and 1.345M Splatoon 2
I don't think I was that wrong for Switch back then considering what was shown, what we knew and what Nintendo own's prediction ended up to be
Even with that I should have put Splatoon 2 higher though, a bundle had to be expected and the attach ratio was going to be higher than that, but it should still have been below 2M (and above 1.5M)
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
Eolz said:
Seems that I was for 2.2M Switch and 1.1M Splatoon.
Don't know what I was thinking for Splatoon, but I'm still believing it won't be that much more for Switch (aka not 3.5M).
Click to expand...
Switch is already at 1.5m. You think they're only going to ship 35k a week on average the rest of the year?
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
21./15. [PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.13} (¥6.800)
22./20. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} (¥4.700)
23./18. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990)
24./24. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.27} (¥5.700)
25./27. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.04.28} (¥4.700)
26./25. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400)
27./22. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.03.18} (¥5.800)
28./29. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars <SPT> (Nintendo) {2017.03.30} (¥4.980)
29./30. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.12.15} (¥4.800)
30./23. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥8.400)
31./33. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.20} (¥5.700)
32./26. [PS4] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.07.27} (¥5.900)
33./00. [3DS] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu Atsumare! Saikyou no Tousou Monotachi [Welcome Price!!] <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.08.03} (¥2.800)
34./38. [3DS] Tomodachi Life [Nintendo Selects] <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.03.17} (¥2.700)
35./34. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.02.23} (¥7.800)
36./45. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800)
37./31. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600)
38./35. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Game of the Year Edition <Call of Duty: Black Ops III \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Awakening \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Eclipse \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Descent \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Salvation> <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.29} (¥5.900)
39./44. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.200)
40./48. [NSW] Super Bomberman R <ACT> (Konami) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980)
41./08. [3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 1 & 2 Special Edition {Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Bouken \ Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo} <ADV> (Capcom) {2017.08.03} (¥7.200)
42./50. [PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 <SPT> (Konami) {2016.04.28} (¥6.980)
43./00. [3DS] Miitopia <SLG> (Nintendo) {2016.12.08} (¥4.700)
44./46. [3DS] 100% Pascal Sensei: Kanpeki Paint Bombers <ACT> (Konami) {2017.07.13} (¥4.980)
45./28. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Legacy <Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm \ Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 2 \ Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3> <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.07.27} (¥6.800)
46./37. [3DS] Ever Oasis <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.07.13} (¥4.980)
47./36. [NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2017.07.20} (¥7.800)
48./00. [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 <SPT> (Konami) {2016.04.28} (¥7.980)
49./32. [WIU] Splatoon # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥5.700)
50./39. [PS4] DiRT 4 <RCE> (Ubisoft) {2017.07.27} (¥7.980)

Top 50

3DS - 23
PS4 - 16
NSW - 7
PSV - 2
WIU - 2

SOFTWARE
Code: 
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|  ALL  |    657.000 |    900.000 |    443.000 | 18.467.000 | 16.960.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
 
J

Jon Carter

Member
noshten said:
MCGAF PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017(Switch and Splatoon 2 Edition)

11 predictions for Switch doing less than 2.1 million in 2017
5 predictions for Switch doing more than 3.5 million in 2017

20 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing less than 1.6 million in 2017
3 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing more than 2.4 million in 2017
Click to expand...

I had forgotten you predicted 3.999.999 for Splatoon 2 in 2017. Is the game's performance a crushing disappointment then?
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Except for preorders there will be a lottery at Bic Camera online shop for Monster Hunter Switch bundles with reservations starting tomorrow.
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
Hard to tell what that means for switch shipments but I'm assuming another big week like the last one is unlikely. Hopefully we're still looking at shipments remaining at 50K+ going forward.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
SinCityAssassin said:
Is that in anticipation for Monster Hunter next week?
Click to expand...

More likely they directed the entire shipment Nintendo sent them for Obon perion at pre-Obon week. At week 31 only 10 stores restocked too.

Amazon and other retailers continued with their regular schedule, it's a wait and see if this week was big too.
 
N

noshten

Member
Fisico said:
It would be nice to have the whole context.
It's fine to pick the data you wish to display but without knowing the exact sample it has no real meaning, especially for the Switch one, how many people predicted between 2.1 and 3.5M for Switch? What is the average? The median?

We all know Switch surpassed almost everyone expectations and that you like to point it out every few weeks, but if you do so at least give the whole set of data otherwise it's just console wars stuff material.

2.77M Switch and 1.345M Splatoon 2
I don't think I was that wrong for Switch back then considering what was shown, what we knew and what Nintendo own's prediction ended up to be
Even with that I should have put Splatoon 2 higher though, a bundle had to be expected and the attach ratio was going to be higher than that, but it should still have been below 2M (and above 1.5M)
Click to expand...

It's a fairly long post since there were around 30 predictions made total.
I did it a few weeks ago for DQXI so if you'd like I can do it for NSW and Splatoon 2. I provided the link to the thread instead so not to clutter M-C too much but I can post the quotes instead.

The post simply demonstrates that majority of Nintendo "biased" M-C regulars were thinking that the new Nintendo console would sell like a console and very few people expected it to sell like a handheld. Splatoon 2 was also extremely underestimated with a fair few predictions that were below what Splatoon 2 has sold in it's first month.
I had a lot of disagreement with people in M-C about my noshisms but in the end my DQXI PS4 prediction will end up the one farthest from the truth.

Jon Carter said:
I had forgotten you predicted 3.999.999 for Splatoon 2 in 2017. Is the game's performance a crushing disappointment then?
Click to expand...

Not at all, supply for the Switch the past few months however was very disappointing. I think it will still easily finish the year with over 3 million sales. At the time I undershot the Switch since the other predictions on the forum were so low, while compensating with Splatoon 2 in case the Switch did end up closer to 5 million for the year.
 
H

hiska-kun

Member
First Day Sell-through {2017.08.17}

[PS4] Dragon Quest X: All in One Package <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.800) - 40%

[PS4] Dragon's Dogma Online: Season 3 <ACT> (Capcom) (¥7.800) - 40%
 
O

Orgen

Member
hiska-kun said:
First Day Sell-through {2017.08.17}

[PS4] Dragon Quest X: All in One Package <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.800) - 40%

[PS4] Dragon's Dogma Online: Season 3 <ACT> (Capcom) (¥7.800) - 40%
Click to expand...

Are there any other DQX versions launching simultaneously? (Wii U, Switch?)
 
L

L~A

Member
Orgen said:
Are there any other DQX versions launching simultaneously? (Wii U, Switch?)
Click to expand...

No, that's the initial release for the PS4, Wii U doesn't need it. And Switch version is out next month (on September 21st, iirc).

***

By the way, Nintendo just announced this for Europe:

DHgSaAwWAAEpjI3.jpg:large
Click to expand...

Basically re-confirms Japan will get the same, but that much was obvious since it was the only region with retail release for the original games. Also expecting New 2DS XL bundles, maybe announced later today at World Championships.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
L~A said:
No, that's the initial release for the PS4, Wii U doesn't need it. And Switch version is out next month (on September 21st, iirc).

***

By the way, Nintendo just announced this for Europe:



Basically re-confirms Japan will get the same, but that much was obvious since it was the only region with retail release for the original games. Also expecting New 2DS XL bundles, maybe announced later today at World Championships.
Click to expand...

Why dont they just go ahead and make the cartridge for it if they make boxes? Are 3DS cartridges expensive?
 
T

thestopsign

Member
noshten said:
MCGAF PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017(Switch and Splatoon 2 Edition)

11 predictions for Switch doing less than 2.1 million in 2017
5 predictions for Switch doing more than 3.5 million in 2017

20 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing less than 1.6 million in 2017
3 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing more than 2.4 million in 2017
Click to expand...

A good example on how to cherry pick predictions right here. You put up arbitrary boundaries and exclude any predictions in the middle. Use a more proven statistical method like median or average or don't do it at all.

You can keep trying to call people out but you have been more consistently wrong then most.
 
N

noshten

Member
thestopsign said:
A good example on how to cherry pick predictions right here. You put up arbitrary boundaries and exclude any predictions in the middle. Use a more proven statistical method like median or average or don't do it at all.

You can keep trying to call people out but you have been more consistently wrong then most.
Click to expand...



The Average among the 32 is 2.75 million for the Switch
The Average among the 32 is 1.47 million for the Splatoon 2
Pretty much people expecting an attach rate of 50% for the biggest game coming out on the Switch during it's first year on the market. Like I've said I expect it to be closer to 80%.

All my post outlined was that people were expecting Switch to perform like a console and only a few expected it to perform like a handheld.
The arbitrary boundary below 2.1 million is simply a figure under which Switch sales would be closer to an unsuccessful Nintendo device, while 3.5 million and above is closer to a successful Nintendo device.
Which speaks to around half of the users thinking it would perform somewhere in the middle and making a safe prediction.

In terms of Splatoon 2, a lot of people completely underestimated the impact it would have on Japan and still do. 1.6 million is the LTD for the original on the Wii U and will be passed by Splatoon 2 in all likelihood during October if not sooner if more Switch stock is available.
Simply put the Splatoon 2 predictions in the beginning of the year were wildly off the mark. 2.4 million will be something Splatoon 2 will do this year with ease and only 3 people predicted it. I've had enough debates on Splatoon in these threads and once again despite the success of the original people continued to underestimate the game for some reason.


Also speaking of predictions:

thestopsign said:
Those Switch software sales wouldn't be awful actually, but for Splatoon to sell a million, there are going to be significantly more Switches sold than 1.4 million. Games very rarely reach the type of user base penetration that many people are expecting out of Switch software right now. Splatoon on Wii U is basically a best case scenario for attach ratio with for a single game to a piece of hardware, and that isn't even at 0.5 software/hardware ratio.

If Splatoon 2 sells close to a million, I would expect at least 2 million for the Switch. If it reaches 1.5 million, the system will sell closer to 3 million or more.
Click to expand...

MC:
Splatoon 2 - 915.628
Switch - 1.436.031
Famitsu:
Splatoon 2 - 975.200
Switch - 1.457.616
 
S

Sandfox

Member
noshten said:
The Average among the 32 is 2.75 million for the Switch
The Average among the 32 is 1.47 million for the Splatoon 2
Pretty much people expecting an attach rate of 50% for the biggest game coming out on the Switch during it's first year on the market. Like I've said I expect it to be closer to 80%.

All my post outlined was that people were expecting Switch to perform like a console and only a few expected it to perform like a handheld.
The arbitrary boundary below 2.1 million is simply a figure under which Switch sales would be closer to an unsuccessful Nintendo device, while 3.5 million and above is closer to a successful Nintendo device.
Which speaks to around half of the users thinking it would perform somewhere in the middle and making a safe prediction.

In terms of Splatoon 2, a lot of people completely underestimated the impact it would have on Japan and still do. 1.6 million is the LTD for the original on the Wii U and will be passed by Splatoon 2 in all likelihood during October if not sooner if more Switch stock is available.
Simply put the Splatoon 2 predictions in the beginning of the year were wildly off the mark. 2.4 million will be something Splatoon 2 will do this year with ease and only 3 people predicted it. I've had enough debates on Splatoon in these threads and once again despite the success of the original people continued to underestimate the game for some reason.


Also speaking of predictions:



MC:
Splatoon 2 - 915.628
Switch - 1.436.031
Famitsu:
Splatoon 2 - 975.200
Switch - 1.457.616
Click to expand...
Nintendo straight up destroyed all of the predictions in the post that sparked that discussion with more than four months to go and that's with the stock issues.
 
F

Fisico

Member
noshten said:
Pretty much people expecting an attach rate of 50% for the biggest game coming out on the Switch during it's first year on the market. Like I've said I expect it to be closer to 80%.

All my post outlined was that people were expecting Switch to perform like a console and only a few expected it to perform like a handheld.
The arbitrary boundary below 2.1 million is simply a figure under which Switch sales would be closer to an unsuccessful Nintendo device, while 3.5 million and above is closer to a successful Nintendo device.
Which speaks to around half of the users thinking it would perform somewhere in the middle and making a safe prediction.

In terms of Splatoon 2, a lot of people completely underestimated the impact it would have on Japan and still do. 1.6 million is the LTD for the original on the Wii U and will be passed by Splatoon 2 in all likelihood during October if not sooner if more Switch stock is available.
Simply put the Splatoon 2 predictions in the beginning of the year were wildly off the mark. 2.4 million will be something Splatoon 2 will do this year with ease and only 3 people predicted it. I've had enough debates on Splatoon in these threads and once again despite the success of the original people continued to underestimate the game for some reason.
Click to expand...

53%
The last home console to sell above 2.8M was the Wii in 2008 and it barely did it.

What was underestimated first and foremost was the Switch and not Splatoon, the predictions were that Switch was gonna have a bad first year for a Nintendo handheld because the price was too high, it was lacking in big announcements bar a few, had (and still have for now) underwhelming 3rd party support and the Switch message might also not have been able to get through the audience just like Nintendo failed to convey what was the Wii U for or the 3D didn't take off for 3DS.
Nintendo filled the planning later on, the hybrid concept took off and the japanese (and worlwide) audience reacted well to the Wii U port of Mario Kart and the first Zelda open world.
From there it had a momentum that even Nintendo failed to anticipate.

No one predicted that.

As for Splatoon 2 no one doubted it would beat OG Splatoon sales either, just not as fast as you thought because the Switch wasn't seen as a piece of hardware attractive enough to have a big enough install base in its first year able to sustain such sales.
See Splatoon on Wii U, 1.7M on a 3.3M install base, when you predict 2.7M for Switch first year, is it that crazy to think that Splatoon 2 wouldn't reach 1.8-2M?
It is now also basically mandatory to buy the game with the system (with Splatoon 2 bundles being most of the hardware sales), no one predicted that either and it of course helps Splatoon 2 to have a bigger attach ratio.
It might be bit too early to say, but as long as Nintendo fails to produce more Switch without Splatoon 2 than the opposite the attach ratio discussion is a bit biased from now on as it will only go up in the coming weeks, to predict what will be Splatoon 2 sales by the end of the year is still a wild guess because we don't know what is its ceiling, we don't know how many Switch will be shipped and we don't know how long will the Splatoon 2 bundles last and how prevalent it will remain until the end of the year.
Though +2M is a lock at this point at least.

TLDR; (Almost) Eveyrone failed to anticipate the success of the Switch, we get it.
 
J

James Scott

Banned
I wonder how many MH bundles Nintendo will manufacture. Since Switch keeps selling out that's one way of selling as many units as needed.

Maybe something Nintendo should consider for the titles they need to sell well like FIFA and MHXX to show the publishers it was probably a mistake to not have any plans for Switch support
 
T

theprodigy

Member
only going back and pointing out your (somewhat) correct predictions while ignoring all the ones you got wrong, classic behavior
 
N

noshten

Member
Fisico said:
53%
The last home console to sell above 2.8M was the Wii in 2008 and it barely did it.
Click to expand...

Thats still very close to half Switch buyers getting Splatoon 2 for 2017.
There has only been 1 home console since the Wii made by Nintendo and I'd say Switch is more attractive than Wii in Japan because of it's hybrid nature. I also outlined back than why I though it would keep pace with the 3DS this year. Splatoon 2 is part of the reason if the 3DS had the lineup Switch has year one it would have been as successful without needing a price cut. The difference between vanila 3DS and Switch is that one is more attractive as a device and has a greater library for Japan in basically 6 months since release than 3DS had it's first full year.

What was underestimated first and foremost was the Switch and not Splatoon, the predictions were that Switch was gonna have a bad first year for a Nintendo handheld because the price was too high, it was lacking in big announcements bar a few, had (and still have for now) underwhelming 3rd party support and the Switch message might also not have been able to get through the audience just like Nintendo failed to convey what was the Wii U for or the 3D didn't take off for 3DS.
Nintendo filled the planning later on, the hybrid concept took off and the japanese (and worlwide) audience reacted well to the Wii U port of Mario Kart and the first Zelda open world.
From there it had a momentum that even Nintendo failed to anticipate.

No one predicted that.
Click to expand...

noshten said:
I don't think that those were successful launches by Nintendo and the launch games weren't particularly impressive at least to me. I waited for MK8 and a free game to get my Wii U. It was a console I had no interest for launched day.
If someone missed out on the Wii U because of the awful messaging and marketing by Nintendo, Switch might make more sense. Being able to play MK8, Zelda, Splatoon during it's first half an year - on the go is a pretty great upgrade compared to the Wii U. In a sense the Gamepad should have been this device - but technology on the Wii U is ancient compared to the Switch. The GamePad is also a monstrosity compared to the Tablet and that's from someone that likes what the Gamepad did for the Wii U.
3D and 3DS at launch to me was also a mess, the 3D didn't sell the system - price cuts and games did.
Switch needs to launch better than both those systems but Nintendo would probably be conservative and there would end up being a lot more demand than anticipated. Anyhow there is still a month or so left so we have plenty of time to see how preorders are shapping up. After all it's not only Switch games scheduled for Q1. Amazon, Japanese Preorders and other supply related PR will be able to shed more light whether Switch is going as much of a disaster as some are predicting.

I honestly be surprised if the Switch doesn't do a better than both 3DS and Wii U's first 6 months. It's the holidays I'm more uncertain about.
Click to expand...

noshten said:
Other than being $250 - 3DS sold like crap because:
- it had no big games until the price drop
- the 3D gimmick was much worse than Switch's gimmick
- it was not much of an upgrade over DS.

Compare that with Switch:
- new Zelda at launch(only 14 mil Wii U owners so please refrain from reminding us of Zelda U we are all aware of it), MK8(ditto), Splatoon 2, Minecraft, new Super Mario. This list wipes the floor with absolutly everything that came out on the 3DS during it's first year.
- Gimmick is portable home console that allows local multiplayer on the go, two kid-sized controllers straight out of the box, rumble, gyro, sensors etc
- Compared to the 3DS the Switch is a major upgrade in every conceivable way

People continue to look at the 3DS with rose colored goggles - it was much much worse at launch than the Switch and inflation alone makes it a more costly device.
Click to expand...

As for Splatoon 2 no one doubted it would beat OG Splatoon sales either, just not as fast as you thought because the Switch wasn't seen as a piece of hardware attractive enough to have a big enough install base in its first year able to sustain such sales.
See Splatoon on Wii U, 1.7M on a 3.3M install base, when you predict 2.7M for Switch first year, is it that crazy to think that Splatoon 2 wouldn't reach 1.8-2M?
It is now also basically mandatory to buy the game with the system (with Splatoon 2 bundles being most of the hardware sales), no one predicted that either and it of course helps Splatoon 2 to have a bigger attach ratio.
It might be bit too early to say, but as long as Nintendo fails to produce more Switch without Splatoon 2 than the opposite the attach ratio discussion is a bit biased from now on as it will only go up in the coming weeks, to predict what will be Splatoon 2 sales by the end of the year is still a wild guess because we don't know what is its ceiling, we don't know how many Switch will be shipped and we don't know how long will the Splatoon 2 bundles last and how prevalent it will remain until the end of the year.
Though +2M is a lock at this point at least.
Click to expand...

Splatoon related noshisms:
Splatoon and Minecraft will sell 5 million in Japan during Switch Lifetime
Splatoon will pass 5 million in Japan before July 21st 2018
Splatoon will become top 10 selling game in Japan
Only DQ11 could possibly sell more than Splatoon 2 by the end of 2017
Zelda is also poised to be huge game that moves a lot of hardware. I honestly don't know what will sell more Zelda or Splatoon 2 WW.

The reason Switch is doing so well in Japan is Splatoon 2, in the end it will dwarf all other games released in Japan and be the equivalent of a mainline Pokemon HD game dropping on the Switch in it's launch year.



theprodigy said:
only going back and pointing out your (somewhat) correct predictions while ignoring all the ones you got wrong, classic behavior
Click to expand...

I had a very incorrect DQXI PS4 prediction and went back to it ;) I'm also not afraid to backup any prediction I've made and which assumptions I made ended up being completely off target, like the DQXI Switch release date or the fact that 3DS would be up YoY.
 
J

James Scott

Banned
Fisico said:
53%
The last home console to sell above 2.8M was the Wii in 2008 and it barely did it.

What was underestimated first and foremost was the Switch and not Splatoon, the predictions were that Switch was gonna have a bad first year for a Nintendo handheld because the price was too high, it was lacking in big announcements bar a few, had (and still have for now) underwhelming 3rd party support and the Switch message might also not have been able to get through the audience just like Nintendo failed to convey what was the Wii U for or the 3D didn't take off for 3DS.
Nintendo filled the planning later on, the hybrid concept took off and the japanese (and worlwide) audience reacted well to the Wii U port of Mario Kart and the first Zelda open world.
From there it had a momentum that even Nintendo failed to anticipate.

No one predicted that.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure, i at least thought it was going to do better than most people thought.
Thought it was short sighted to say the line up was bad. You basically had to ignore every single console launch.
6 months later, it's been pretty sweet

It did still do better than I was expecting, tho
 
Eolz

Eolz

Member
D.Lo said:
Switch is already at 1.5m. You think they're only going to ship 35k a week on average the rest of the year?
Click to expand...

I'm just not confident enough to say there'll be enough stock to sell 2 more millions by december.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
There were many hints Switch would be a success in Japan, just not so big and so soon with the anemic launch software it had.

Japan was looking for the successor of 3DS, with PS4 falling to play that role there wasn't other alternative except Switch.
 
H

H13

Member
Chris1964 said:
There were many hints Switch would be a success in Japan, just not so big and so soon with the anemic launch software it had.

Japan was looking for the successor of 3DS, with PS4 falling to play that role there wasn't other alternative except Switch.
Click to expand...

Even before switch launch, I never expected ps4 to be the successor of the leading console in japan tbh, always expected the next 3ds successor or mobile
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
H13 said:
Even before switch launch, I never expected ps4 to be the successor of the leading console in japan tbh, always expected the next 3ds successor or mobile
Click to expand...
No one who could see further than his finger expected PS4 to become the leading console in Japan.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Lonely1 said:
Can someone explain to me why we had so many Namco announcements recently?
Click to expand...

They mostly release their Western oriented games in Q1 and Q2, and this is the prime Western game announcement season.

They did a bunch of announcements at E3, the various Western Anime festivals, and now Sword Art Online in the lead up to Gamescom where they have a huge presence.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Famitsu Sales: Week 21 (May 15 - May 21)
Sales-Age
34
2K
Woopah replied
Famitsu Sales Week 18+19, 2023 (Apr 24 - May 07)
Sales-Age 2
56
4K
Woopah replied
Famitsu Sales Week: 20, 2023 (May 08 - May 14)
Sales-Age 2 3
115
6K
Woopah replied
Famitsu Sales: Week 22, 2023 (May 22 - May 28)
Sales-Age 2
86
5K
Woopah replied
Famitsu Sales: Week 25, 2023 (Jun 12 - Jun18)
Sales-Age 2 3
138
7K
Walter Matthau replied
Top Bottom