While I think that all the pre-orders will sell out (Project Scorpio and the regular standard edition later this month), it will be slow once it's on a retail shelf to where you can just walk in and buy it.
Pre-orders will inflate the sales numbers for November but December and beyond will be as slow or slower than the PlayStation 4 Pro simply because of the $500 price tag and the simple fact that outside of Forza Motorsport 7, there's not going to be a single exclusive that shows off the capabilities of the console until Forza Horizon 4 next September.
I'm fully expecting a $100 price drop announcement at E3 2018. Exclusives wise, Super Lucky's Tale isn't going to get any sales, no small little Indie game is going to do it, I don't think that Sea of Thieves, Crackdown 3 or State of Decay 2 will do anything either.
None of this even includes factoring in Nintendo Switch at $300, a possible holiday or permanent price drop for PlayStation 4 Pro as well as the expected $200 price tags for PlayStation 4 Slim and Xbox One Slim.
If Nintendo manages to have the Switch "in stock" from October 27th to December 31st, then not only do I see it impacting the sales of X dramatically but it will also end up being number one this coming fall/holiday/shopping season.
If Switch is consistently "in stock" -
1. Nintendo Switch ($300, October and December)
2. PlayStation 4 Slim ($200, October and December)
3. Xbox One Slim ($200, October and December)
4. PlayStation 4 Pro ($300 or $350, October and December)
5. Xbox One X ($500, December)
If Switch is NOT consistently "in stock", then it falls to 3rd with both slims moving up a spot. I think that no matter what, November will belong to Xbox One due to the pre-orders for X inflating the numbers. December will see it level off.
Plus, there's thus far no Xbox One X Assassin's Creed Origins or Shadow of War bundles which honestly, makes no sense to me whatsoever. Even worse, the Slim has a Shadow of War bundle which also makes no sense. Origins and War are the big two games outside of Forza Motorsport 7 that has the best chance of showcasing the console's capabilities but yet, there's no bundle for either game being packed in. $500 for X with Origins or War would have been a smart move. With the War slim bundle being announced, I don't see an X bundle with War happening from Microsoft at all. An Origins X bundle is still a possibility but also unlikely.
There's nothing to really showcase the console's capabilities outside of Forza Motorsport 7 and as great as it may be, is it worth buying a $500 console for? Can't speak for anyone else but not for me. Add in the fact that the competition from Nintendo for their consoles exclusives will be far more impressive in both quality and quantity. If Switch is "in stock", it's going to win two out of three months and dominate overall.
For PlayStation 4, on November 7th, The Frozen Wilds DLC for Horizon Zero Dawn is by far and away the most impressive game that will be available that day outside of Forza Motorsport 7 and even that is debatable simply because of the genre that it is in.
As for Battlegrounds, as good as it may or may not be, im guessing that it will be an early access game come November 7th and im sorry but to buy a $500 console for an early access game (and I don't care what game it is) is sad and pathetic. $500 for a console and you can't even get an actual finished game will be insane if that's how it actually goes.
All of the specs and power that X provides will mean nothing without exclusives that take full advantage of it all and that can showcase the console's capabilities. Reason I sold my base PlayStation 4 last year and purchased a Pro was simple - in three months, I knew that I would be playing Horizon: Zero Dawn and that exclusive will showcase the console's capabilities.
Outside of Forza Motorsport 7, I simply don't see any exclusive doing the same until Forza Horizon 4 next September. I don't think that any of the above games I mentioned will do it and for this year, Sony has Gran Turismo Sport to compete with FM7. And as for multi-platform games, unless you don't own a PS4/PS4 Pro, how many people are really going to spend $500 to play multi-platform games when you can just play it on the other console?
Add in another cost factor - a good or better 4K HDR TV with 10 bit wide color gamut. You're talking an easy $1000 minimum before tax. To spend $500 (or even $400 on a Pro) without buying the TV seems pointless to me unless you're basically just waiting for Black Weekend sales or next year's tax refund and if it's the refund, why not wait before buying an X and/or Pro?
For me personally, since I have completed over 50 games thus far this generation, im staying with my PS4 Pro as my primary console with Xbox One Slim as my secondary console that's only used for playing exclusives and outside of ReCore: DE (which I own on disc), there's not a single exclusive I care about or am interested in until State of Decay 2.
With Pro, there was simply a lot more incentive. With now owning a Pro since launch last year, there's simply no incentive for me personally to invest in an X when 1) I own an Xbox One Slim and 2) playing Ghost Recon Wildlands on Pro has shown me what Ubisoft can do for draw distances, visuals, etc. so even if Origins is 1800p or 2160cb compared to native 4K on X, I'll stick with the Pro simply because half a grand is not worth the visual difference, at least not for me.
With all of that said, there's a lot of factors that will all come into play this October, November and December and it will easily be the most interesting fall/holiday/shopping season of this generation.
