It's closer to 500 than it is 1000, yeah, but with modern GPU features as already mentioned.
I don't think so Tim
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PS4 Rumors , APU code named 'Liverpool' Radeon HD 7970 GPU Steamroller CPU 16GB Flash
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It's closer to 500 than it is 1000, yeah, but with modern GPU features as already mentioned.
I don't think so Tim
LittleJohnny
Banned
Calling Nintendo fan's optimism a dream is one thing, but it looks like you have your own dreams
Since when did we start measuring system peformance solely by FLOPS? Thanks Epic for starting this BS again, didn't the PS3 have 2T of performance according to Sony's official spec's? lol, we'll never get a real number at this point.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
It's closer to 500 than it is 1000, yeah, but with modern GPU features as already mentioned.
I don't think so Tim
I didn't say I thought they would go with the 2 gpu set up(one being an apu + a discrete gpu), i personnelly dont think this will end up happening, but there been quite a few people in this thread that have suggested this and backed it up with some rumors or whatever. IF that were the case how would it not be possible to have the gpu in the apu and the discrete gpu push over 3tflops? Seems reasonable to me.
And wait how do you know my name???
Calling Nintendo fan's optimism a dream is one thing, but it looks like you have your own dreams
Since when did we start measuring system peformance solely by FLOPS? Thanks Epic for starting this BS again, didn't the PS3 have 2T of performance according to Sony's official spec's? lol, we'll never get a real number at this point.
How is 2tflop of GPU power dreaming when the specs in the OP already put one of the early dev kits at 1.83tflops? 2tflops is only a slight increase... Also the 2tflop PS3 numbers were some pure PR BS calucualted through some alien math that still no one has figured out. The GPU in the PS3 is .25tflops+(so this estimate puts it at around 8x), I don't know how much Cell is(think its a lot as in this is what Cell known for).
Yea we'll see about that. I think a March/April 2014 release in NA is pretty likely, maybe it will release in Japan in Dec 2013.
phosphor112
Banned
PS4 comes out next Holiday (2013) ....... no way on a 2014 launch.
FLOP counts have been a way to measure performance forever now.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
$100 is modest compared to the $240-$305 they lost on PS3 per console. edited for correct PS3 loss figures.
http://www.videogamer.com/news/sony_has_been_developing_playstation_4_since_august_2010.html
Was this posted? Pretty interesting news, could be telling a lot of things.
Was this posted? Pretty interesting news, could be telling a lot of things.
CadetMahoney
Member
No I'm not, I'm talking about framerates and pixel count running a decent looking game. What did you think I was talking about?
REMEMBER CITADEL
Banned
And just like MIPS, isolated those numbers mean very little.
Yeah but PS3 lost them a lot of money, like epic amounts. How much did PS1 and PS2 cost for them to build? I assume they took a loss there as well.
CV of SCEA's ex-R&D director suggests work on the "next generation PlayStation" began almost two years ago.
http://www.videogamer.com/news/sony_has_been_developing_playstation_4_since_august_2010.html
http://www.linkedin.com/in/attilavass
http://www.videogamer.com/news/sony_has_been_developing_playstation_4_since_august_2010.html
http://www.linkedin.com/in/attilavass
I'm not saying you can learn all you need to know by these figures alone, but it's better to put a basis behind your comparison instead of just throwing out some meaningless multiplier that means nothing at all.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
CV of SCEA's ex-R&D director suggests work on the "next generation PlayStation" began almost two years ago.
http://www.videogamer.com/news/sony_has_been_developing_playstation_4_since_august_2010.html
http://www.linkedin.com/in/attilavass
Unsurprising. I think its typical that revisions and new hardware iterations are planned as soon as the old one is launched. Sega was planning Dreamcast 2 as soon as Dreamcast was launched.
jeff_rigby
Banned
And there is this patent from August 2010 which is a HSA compatible plugin (1PPU+4SPU) wafer for AMD SOC. PS4 could have been a 4 wafer 1PPC+4SPU or Sony has another use for the wafers.
Aug 2010 Sony files patent for 1PPU+4SPU building block
Aug 2010 Xbox 720 Draft document CPU is either ARM or X86 with Backward Compatability via 3 PPC CPUs to be removed after 3 years
Dec 2010 Sony publishes 1PPU+4SPU building block patent with Xbar (same as AMD Fusion SOC CPU building blocks) 1 to 4 building block designs. 2=PS3, 4=PS4 PS3 Cell design dead
March 2011 AMD states AMD Fusion APU could be perfect in a Game console
July 2011 Digitimes rumor of a PS4 coming late 2012 with Kinect Interface (Probably true if PS3.5)
July 2011 Microsoft publishes the domain names microsoft-sony.com and sony-microsoft.com
Dec 2011 Sony publishes a processor agnostic Distributed processing patent using the terms Cell and APU interchangeably= HSA Foundation, APU =? AMD Fusion APU
Three August 2010 dates, interesting, what are the odds?
Jan 2012 Rumors that PS4 is (from developer hardware) X86
March 2012 Rumors firm up AMD Fusion APUs mentioned for PS4 Really wild rumors for Xbox 720 (PPC, 16 CPUs)
Till today where most Xbox 720 rumors are found to be based on the 2010 Xbox 720 draft-1 PPT presentation to non-technical sales types.
Given the above I think by at least 2010 Microsoft had already decided on X86 and AMD Fusion SOC (AMD said they had been planning this for 5 years)
Unsurprising. I think its typical that revisions and new hardware iterations are planned as soon as the old one is launched. Sega was planning Dreamcast 2 as soon as Dreamcast was launched.
Never knew there were palns for a Dreamcast 2. Oh, that stings so bad...
Glorified G
Member
Unsurprising. I think its typical that revisions and new hardware iterations are planned as soon as the old one is launched. Sega was planning Dreamcast 2 as soon as Dreamcast was launched.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061117130000.html
Actually according to this article PS3 was loosing as much $306 per unit! The other model loosing $241. I dont know how much PS2 lost at first, I just remember people saying it was a sizable amount, but not anything close to PS3's loss. Im sure it was over $100 though. I tried looking it up but couldnt find anything.
for further reference this article says that MS was loosing $152 per unit on Xbox 360 at release.
http://www.psu.com/a000518/Xbox-360-initial-production-costs-may-be-steep
systemfehler
Member
Well this time Sony won't pay ~130$ for a Bluray drive, the SATA HDD will be cheaper and I hope I don't look stupid now but with the RSX it seems Sony got ripped off at 129$ if the AMD 6970 GPU costs 85$.
All in all I think Sony can make a powerfull console without losing hundreds of dollars but if they truly focus on power I doubt they can sell it at a break-even point unless they want to alienate 95% of their customers. I hink 399$ and Sony paying maybe 50-100$ as loss seems okay at least for me as a customer.
phosphor112
Banned
You know, I just thought of something. The Eurogamer article about the Sony-Gaigai deal has a point. 30fps games on a streaming service would be bad. Sure it might work for demo's now, but it would be horrible for everything else, including BC (most games are sub 60fps). What if Sony has a 60fps requirement or benchmark set for next gen? This will also allow them to further push their 3D initiative, in both the living room space but personal (HMZ-T1) space as well.
SkylineRKR
Member
Well, Ps3 cost them like all the money they made with both the Ps1 and Ps2. They were just stupid, BR was never going to be as big and essential as DVD and video on demand was already looming also.
I think Merryll Lynch once estimated that Sony lost about $ 100 on every Ps2. But I don't know if PAL markets were factored in, because the suggested Ps2 price came down to the equivalent of 500 euros. Which was MUCH higher than the Northern American pricing.
I think Merryll Lynch once estimated that Sony lost about $ 100 on every Ps2. But I don't know if PAL markets were factored in, because the suggested Ps2 price came down to the equivalent of 500 euros. Which was MUCH higher than the Northern American pricing.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
The $129 figure for the RSX included the 4 chips of 256mb of gddr3 video memory, it probably was around $85-$95 for the actual GPU, still I would of expected a bit of a better deal then that as well. Maybe this is why there not going back to nvidia anymore!
Remember without Bluray in the PS3, I dont know if Bluray would of won the format war. How much this benefited Sony I have no idea.
Canis lupus
Member
Thats really a lot for PS2. Wasnt PS2 released at $299 in America? PS2 released at 20,000 Belgian francs wich are nowadays 500 euros. For sure they wouldnt have lost money on their european sales.
AstroNut325
Member
Pretty sure it wasn't just Sony. It was the BDA and their overall pursuit in seeing the BRD succeed.
Is there a breakdown of how much the parts cost today (it'll give an idea as how much money they are making on each console) to make a PS3?
I am pretty certain that manufacturing costs are way down on some of the things in there and those manufacturing practices (with the savings) will see continued operation for next gen as well.
bgassassin
Member
Ha ha, yeah - I wouldn't have thought to look here for your response.
3 years is probably stretching into mid-term - but yeah, 2 years would be short-term.
Yeah, strong sales out of the gate would be great for the long-term health of the platform, but absolutely brutal for the short-term financials if they are taking a $100+ hit on each unit of hardware.
I don't think you've fully grasped just how much of a loss $100+ per unit really is (and that's not including advertising costs associated with launching the system). That won't come anywhere close to being offset by games/PSN/accessories, etc. in the first couple years. Systems sell 8-10 games per system over the life of a system, but that tie ratio will be lower within the first year or two. Even best case scenario with software/accessories/etc. still leaves you with a BIG loss in year one - and it just gets bigger and bigger the more hardware you sell.
In any case, this is the projection that I'm referring to in terms of Sony's stated goals. They plan to double their profit margin by FY14 (which will be the early stages of PS4) from where it is today with a PS3 supposedly already selling for a profit (although the recent filing showing SCE $1B in the hole last year casts doubt on the FY11 numbers in this graph), plus moving far more PS3 software than the PS4 will ever come close to moving in FY14, PSP/PS2 nothing but pure profit at this point, and Vita sales so low that they really don't contribute significantly to any bottom line for FY11.
There is absolutely zero chance of reaching those profit margins (8%) in FY14 with a PS4 that launches at a $100-$130 loss per unit.
(Then again, they also plan to sell 10M Vitas and 6M PSPs this year!)
I still think you're giving too much weight to the operating losses from the first year. At the same time based on another one of your posts and an assumed near holiday release date, PS4 won't be out long enough to have that kind of impact on FY14. I say "that kind" when saying 10M sold and $1B loss as that's 2-2.5M sold per month before the end of FY14. They might not even have production up to that level let alone sell that many in that time frame.
To give you perspective on how I'm viewing this, I was thinking about how MS did it with Xbox 360. Apparently I greatly undersold the transition from loss to profit in one year's time.
At launch Xbox 360 was estimated at a loss of $126 per unit for hardware and included accessories.
One year later it was being sold for a profit of ~$76 per unit.
Here I was thinking breakeven or slight profit because I forgot how quick that shifted for MS. Looking at the components they are using I saw it being very similar for PS4. But like I said I forgot how fast and how large the hardware turned to profit for MS in the first year so it makes my argument look even better than I originally thought.
That 8-10 games sold is an average that early adopters normally surpass very easily. They may purchase that many titles within the first year of owning the console and possibly within the first few months. And now with the purchase of Gaikai, they have another possible revenue stream.
So I still believe $100-$130 loss per unit initially will be fine for Sony. And they could still achieve their goals, though those goals include Vita sales targets (as you pointed out) that it may or may not reach.
See my response above to understand my perspective.
Melchiah
Member
JohnnySasaki86
Member
So please speculate and tell me what kind of hardware Sony could produce with a $500-$530 production budget in late 2013, assuming they intend to launch it at $399. Would it exceed the specs in the OP or be about the same?
also according to this article and isuppli 360 was loosing upwards of $150 per unit, a bit more then $126.
http://www.psu.com/a000518/Xbox-360-initial-production-costs-may-be-steep
Exactly what Ive been saying as well! I think the Gaikai purchase could have something to do with a future revamp of PS+. either way its an additional revenue stream for them beyond software and accessories.
bgassassin
Member
The OP specs are what I'm basing that on. Hardware plus accessories (controller, cables, etc.)
Well is sony going to sell a system with a $100-$150 loss at launch that is going to be a crazy powerful system.
The ps3 blu-ray drive alone cost $350 and Cell was $230. They are not going with these crazy expensive thing in the ps3. Amd cpu and AMD gpu, they could pay retail prices and still have money left over!
http://www.engadget.com/2006/02/18/playstation-3-costs-900-sez-merrill-lynch-mob/
The ps3 blu-ray drive alone cost $350 and Cell was $230. They are not going with these crazy expensive thing in the ps3. Amd cpu and AMD gpu, they could pay retail prices and still have money left over!
http://www.engadget.com/2006/02/18/playstation-3-costs-900-sez-merrill-lynch-mob/
Even if they did lose that much, there was the assumption that PS2 was going to be a monster hit and produce huge software revenues that would cover up the loss. No way is Sony going into PS4 thinking it will be a monster hit. After what happened this generation I wouldn't be surprised if they were more conservative than during the PS2 generation. I'm not exactly sure what a powerful console does for them anyways. What purpose does it serve? Also if they decide to make a different type of controller like what Nintendo has done with Wii and Wii U then that may mean less resources dedicated towards the box itself.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
Why don't you think that ~$525 could allow them something better then a modified 7850 gpu with 1.83 tflops? The CPU will surely be cheaper then what the cost of the Cell was to manufacture in the PS3 back in 2006, which was $89. This x86 CPU should probably cost them 60% of that. My point is, they seem to devoting less resources to the cpu this time, so they can have a signifigantly stronger GPU. By the end of 2013, wont a HD 7850 be mid to low end?
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061117130000.html
I dont think those numbers are right. iSuppli came up witht he same total $800+ figure, but got there a lot differently. Seems to make a lot more sense too. $89 for Cell. $129 for RSX and video memory, and $125 for the bluray drive. Merrill lynch has all these other things only costing $5, and they dont even have the EE from the ps2 factored in. then again isuppli, attributes $148 to "other components and manufacturing costs"
Dude without PS3 it could have been very different. It was the cheapest and best bluray player on the market.
Blu-ray drive - $35
HDD - $50 ???
GPU - $70 AMD 6950 cost [6850 cost AMD $40]
CPU -$95 AMD 4 core Bulldozer [high estimate]
GDDR5 -$43.13 per 2GB [86.26 for 4GB] AMD BOM data sheet
Total $336.26 now we carry over isuppli slim break down from 2009 couldnt find any else.
Power supply $20.35
Cooler Assembly $11.27
I/O Bridge Controller $5.59
Bluetooth $3.92
Other components $79.52
Manufacturing and test costs $9.81
$130.46
AMD BOM http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/1461/q2msa.gif
http://www.qj.net/qjnet/playstation-3/isuppli-sony-close-to-breaking-even-with-ps3-slim.html
Total Estimate $466.72
A $66 loss per console sold at $400. With a smaller HDD like 500GB it would bring the cost down by about $20. Anyone have a better cost of HDD? And use a 6850 gpu core and you are about break even....
HDD - $50 ???
GPU - $70 AMD 6950 cost [6850 cost AMD $40]
CPU -$95 AMD 4 core Bulldozer [high estimate]
GDDR5 -$43.13 per 2GB [86.26 for 4GB] AMD BOM data sheet
Total $336.26 now we carry over isuppli slim break down from 2009 couldnt find any else.
Power supply $20.35
Cooler Assembly $11.27
I/O Bridge Controller $5.59
Bluetooth $3.92
Other components $79.52
Manufacturing and test costs $9.81
$130.46
AMD BOM http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/1461/q2msa.gif
http://www.qj.net/qjnet/playstation-3/isuppli-sony-close-to-breaking-even-with-ps3-slim.html
Total Estimate $466.72
A $66 loss per console sold at $400. With a smaller HDD like 500GB it would bring the cost down by about $20. Anyone have a better cost of HDD? And use a 6850 gpu core and you are about break even....
jeff_rigby
Banned
PS3.5, Webkit done and HTML5 <video> + WebMAF + Playready DRM in all Sony platforms and 20X a year increase in Internet connected platforms. It took 6 years to get 80 million connected platforms and it should be 100+ million a year after 2012. Also h.256 is coming on line with 4K as well as more efficient IPTV. Late 2012 Sony will have their own streaming IPTV and an expanded PSN.
And there is this patent from August 2010 which is a HSA compatible plugin (1PPU+4SPU) wafer for AMD SOC. PS4 could have been a 4 wafer 1PPC+4SPU or Sony has another use for the wafers.
Aug 2010 Sony files patent for 1PPU+4SPU building block
Aug 2010 Xbox 720 Draft document CPU is either ARM or X86 with Backward Compatability via 3 PPC CPUs to be removed after 3 years
Dec 2010 Sony publishes 1PPU+4SPU building block patent with Xbar (same as AMD Fusion SOC CPU building blocks) 1 to 4 building block designs. 2=PS3, 4=PS4 PS3 Cell design dead
March 2011 AMD states AMD Fusion APU could be perfect in a Game console
July 2011 Digitimes rumor of a PS4 coming late 2012 with Kinect Interface (Probably true if PS3.5)
July 2011 Microsoft publishes the domain names microsoft-sony.com and sony-microsoft.com
Dec 2011 Sony publishes a processor agnostic Distributed processing patent using the terms Cell and APU interchangeably= HSA Foundation, APU =? AMD Fusion APU
Three August 2010 dates, interesting, what are the odds?
Jan 2012 Rumors that PS4 is (from developer hardware) X86
March 2012 Rumors firm up AMD Fusion APUs mentioned for PS4 Really wild rumors for Xbox 720 (PPC, 16 CPUs)
Till today where most Xbox 720 rumors are found to be based on the 2010 Xbox 720 draft-1 PPT presentation to non-technical sales types.
Given the above I think by at least 2010 Microsoft had already decided on X86 and AMD Fusion SOC (AMD said they had been planning this for 5 years)
Microsoft-Sony, not make a console together, share the SOC hardware with their own OS and on line services. With AMD making/providing the same southbridge, I/O and GPU series with the same laws of physics as to what can be packed into a SOC, they will have identical designs or nearly identical. If nearly identical costs more than identical where does it make sense to try to be different?
Only if one releases much later than the other is there a chance that the designs will be significantly different. Both in 2013, how will the designs be different?
This is obvious......but we are not able to put this together because we are assuming competition keeps it from happening. The services (on-line) offered are enough of a differentiation and this includes the OS, Free features etc.
The Xbox361 and PS3.5 started planning before August 2010 (we have proof of the Xbox361 in the Xbox 720 powerpoint). It must be in a SOC and must use a modern hardware design to support low power modes. Both would have to use the same everything except CPU. If the cost to include 6 SPUs is less than the cost of having two different SOCs then making the same SOC for both is economically the best decision. Supporting this is microsoft-sony.com and August 2010 for both Sony and Microsoft, the cite for start Nextgen Sony job posting and my cites for 1PPU4SPU patent and the release date for the Xbox 720 powerpoint.
Xbox361 and PS3.5 are next generation and play a key role as a bridge between older and newer more powerful both in the short term and long term. I suspect the Xbox361 (And PS3.5) SOC will find it's way into many CE platforms......that makes sense also. OnLive model and serving handhelds are Next generation and I'd guess PS3.5 and Xbox 365.
systemfehler
Member
From looking at all the links with prices and some guess work I would say
GPU: 100$
CPU: 70$
MEM: 80$ (4GB GDDR5)
250$ for the "important" stuff - doesn't sound that much. Save money on the case, ports, backwards compatiblity, limit networking to WLAN only, cheap Bluray drive, cheap SATA HDD and then a 399$ retail price + 50$ subsidy should give us a nice work horse.
GPU: 100$
CPU: 70$
MEM: 80$ (4GB GDDR5)
250$ for the "important" stuff - doesn't sound that much. Save money on the case, ports, backwards compatiblity, limit networking to WLAN only, cheap Bluray drive, cheap SATA HDD and then a 399$ retail price + 50$ subsidy should give us a nice work horse.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
I dont think they'll be releasing something larger then 500GB. but wait where do you get the idea of them putting a 6950 GPU in there? The specs in the OP put this thing around a HD 7850. Unless I'm just being dumb and a 6950 is about the same as a 7850. Remember this ting is supposed to have the same core architecture as a 7970. The CPU estimate seems very high. I'd probably say switch the gpu and cpu numbers.
So going with the $20 for the HDD, that gives us $436. Which leaves about $75-$90 more to spend if we go with the hypothetical estimate of loosing $100-130 per console. That should insure that we'll get a better GPU(2-2.25tflop gpu is my guess), just maybe slightly better cpu, and cover the costs of additional motherboard complexity that the 4gb of RAM will bring.
That is the only BOM for the gpu i had. That is why i went with them.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
Do we really need 4GB DDR5? Split memory pools of DDR5 and DDR3 that bad?
I dont agree.
I dont agree.
shinra-bansho
Member
^Need to factor in a retail margin, so loss would be slightly bigger per unit.
Also it's worth noting that FY14 is actually runs from April 1st 2014 to March 31st 2015 iirc; so it would be a full year of PS4 sales presumably - but they may expect HW profit by then?
Hmm, I see what you mean. Perhaps I'm being too conservative in royalty estimations for early adopters and I agree that it won't take nearly as long to turn loss per unit into profit on hardware. Depending on what they do with Gaikai, that also may add to their recouping losses as you say - I can see it making PS Plus more attractive for example.I still think you're giving too much weight to the operating losses from the first year. At the same time based on another one of your posts and an assumed near holiday release date, PS4 won't be out long enough to have that kind of impact on FY14. I say "that kind" when saying 10M sold and $1B loss as that's 2-2.5M sold per month before the end of FY14. They might not even have production up to that level let alone sell that many in that time frame.
To give you perspective on how I'm viewing this, I was thinking about how MS did it with Xbox 360. Apparently I greatly undersold the transition from loss to profit in one year's time.
At launch Xbox 360 was estimated at a loss of $126 per unit for hardware and included accessories.
One year later it was being sold for a profit of ~$76 per unit.
Here I was thinking breakeven or slight profit because I forgot how quick that shifted for MS. Looking at the components they are using I saw it being very similar for PS4. But like I said I forgot how fast and how large the hardware turned to profit for MS in the first year so it makes my argument look even better than I originally thought.
That 8-10 games sold is an average that early adopters normally surpass very easily. They may purchase that many titles within the first year of owning the console and possibly within the first few months. And now with the purchase of Gaikai, they have another possible revenue stream.
So I still believe $100-$130 loss per unit initially will be fine for Sony. And they could still achieve their goals, though those goals include Vita sales targets (as you pointed out) that it may or may not reach.
See my response above to understand my perspective.
Also it's worth noting that FY14 is actually runs from April 1st 2014 to March 31st 2015 iirc; so it would be a full year of PS4 sales presumably - but they may expect HW profit by then?
bgassassin
Member
My guesstimated amount may be more than what Sony plans. However the GPU is not going to just be a modified 7850 (which is a 7870 with disabled compute units). And being a console part it won't have the help of binning either to offset costs.
Cell also had a lot of R&D money spent on it to be able to manufacture it at that cost.
PS4 jeff. Just PS4.
It's confusing because everything I looked up made it sound like their FY was based on the year it ended and not the year it started, and I'm used to it being like you said. Nintendo does the "year end" as well from what I remember.
But yeah I can see them factoring HW profit as a part of that if FY14 starts 4/1/14.
Although when we talk about ordering parts for console, we are talking about millions of units not just some 100k units. Sony can cut the price down even further given how much they will order.
I expect PS+ to be a big part of Sony's strategy for next-gen. I know that after my 3 month trial was up I've been keeping my sub going since I like the bonuses a lot. I definitely spend more on PSN than I used to as well with the discounts.
Split pools aren't that bad, but that'd be too many memory interfaces like the PS3, but even wider. Shrinks would be a problem with that many pins. Combining the Cell and the RSX is already a huge pain such that they haven't done it yet with the PS3 and that would have GDDR3 + XDR on the same chip
JohnnySasaki86
Member
I was confused about this as well, and pointed it out a couple pages back. Dalthien pointed out that FY14 being apr/2014 to mar/2015 is that its a full year of PS4. Where as FY13 is going to be significantly helped by PS3 profits. From this point of few it sounds like it Fy14 being this period would hurt there profits, not help them. So theres two ways of looking at it.
jeff_rigby
Banned
There should be some articles/leaks in the next few months.
My Opinion:
With AMD making/providing the same southbridge, I/O and GPU series with the same laws of physics as to what can be packed into a SOC, they will have identical designs or nearly identical. If nearly identical costs more than identical where does it make sense to try to be different?
Only if one releases much later than the other is there a chance that the designs will be significantly different. Both in 2013, how will the designs be different?
This is obvious......but we are not able to put this together because we are assuming competition keeps it from happening. The services (on-line) offered are enough of a differentiation and this includes the OS, Free features etc.
The Xbox361 and PS3.5 started planning before August 2010 (we have proof of the Xbox361 in the Xbox 720 powerpoint). It must be in a SOC and must use a modern hardware design to support low power modes. Both would have to use the same everything except CPU. If the cost to include 6 SPUs is less than the cost of having two different SOCs then making the same SOC for both is economically the best decision. Supporting this is microsoft-sony.com and August 2010 for both Sony and Microsoft, the cite for start Nextgen Sony job posting and my cites for 1PPU4SPU patent and the release date for the Xbox 720 powerpoint.
Xbox361 and PS3.5 are next generation and play a key role as a bridge between older and newer more powerful both in the short term and long term; XTV (like Google TV), Webkit WebGL, browser desktop, Augmented reality and on-line services for Sony including Gaikai (video and Distributed processing for applications). Best guess is XMB is going to take advantage of more memory and better GPU while game mode will be restricted to 100% emulation, maybe some OS features might be expanded and same provided to Older PS3s via virtual memory (just slower). The Game warning message for XMB supports the above.
http://www.perey.com/ARStandards/Khronos_Standards_for_Mobile_AR.pdf PS3 is a Mobile platform as far as supported standards, Vita of course too.
http://www.khronos.org/assets/uploa...ow-June/Khronos-Overview-Taiwan_June-2012.pdf
bgassassin
Member
Going with a FY14 starting in April '14, I think they would be better served if they can get the hardware to transition over to a decent profit margin as opposed to a FY14 that ends March '14 and has all the launch losses. Though I agree about the PS3 earnings and it would help in the latter scenario.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
Yea so it may just be a wash. Also launch losses would be less if there selling the same hardware loosing the same amount but a lot less units. They'll probably only ship about 3-4M PS4 WW in FY13 in a holiday 2013 launch scenario. Where as in FY14 it could be 10M+. Which I admit half of those could be reduced priced hardware.
Another thing thats starting to confuse me is all the big software titles being pushed into 2013. Theres too many that I've lost count. GTAV, Tomb Raider, Bioshock Infinite, GoW: A, ect. I'm sure Ive missed at least 5 big titles. Theres a good chance they might release TLoU and Beyond in holiday 2013. Its look like there 2013 will be stronger then 2012 for them, and begs the question why is the industry releasing all these huge titles on the older hardware the same year the newer hardware is coming out. The more and more I think about it I dont see PS3 releasing during holiday 2013, and a Spring 2014-Fall 2014 release seems much more likely.
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