• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PS4 Rumors , APU code named 'Liverpool' Radeon HD 7970 GPU Steamroller CPU 16GB Flash

Status
Not open for further replies.

KageMaru

Member
You know, I just thought of something. The Eurogamer article about the Sony-Gaigai deal has a point. 30fps games on a streaming service would be bad. Sure it might work for demo's now, but it would be horrible for everything else, including BC (most games are sub 60fps). What if Sony has a 60fps requirement or benchmark set for next gen? This will also allow them to further push their 3D initiative, in both the living room space but personal (HMZ-T1) space as well.

Mandating 60fps would be a horrible mistake, which is exactly why Sony won't do it. =P

Pretty sure it wasn't just Sony. It was the BDA and their overall pursuit in seeing the BRD succeed.

It was just Sony. I'm sure BDA was in favor of the move since they didn't lose anything on the decision, but it was Sony's call.

Dude without PS3 it could have been very different. It was the cheapest and best bluray player on the market.

Nah, blu-ray looked to win regardless. The format war would have just dragged on longer.

Do we really need 4GB DDR5? Split memory pools of DDR5 and DDR3 that bad?

I dont agree.

Though both have benefits, if you can pull off a UMA, it's probably the best route to take.
 
Yea so it may just be a wash. Another thing thats starting to confuse me is all the big software titles being pushed into 2013. Theres too many that I've lost count. GTAV, Tomb Raider, Bioshock Infinite, GoW: A, ect. I'm sure Ive missed at least 5 big titles. Theres a good chance they might release TLoU and Beyond in holiday 2013. Its look like there 2013 will be stronger then 2012 for them, and begs the question why is the industry releasing all these huge titles on the older hardware the same year the newer hardware is coming out. The more and more I think about it I dont see PS3 releasing during holiday 2013, and a Spring 2014-Fall 2014 release seems much more likely.
Spring launches don't work - or at least haven't worked for the last two HW launches. And waiting until Holiday 2014 is implausible. Sony aren't giving a year's headstart to Microsoft again, and two years to Nintendo.

All signs point to a Holiday 2013 launch.
 

McHuj

Member
Another thing thats starting to confuse me is all the big software titles being pushed into 2013. Theres too many that I've lost count. GTAV, Tomb Raider, Bioshock Infinite, GoW: A, ect. I'm sure Ive missed at least 5 big titles. Theres a good chance they might release TLoU and Beyond in holiday 2013. Its look like there 2013 will be stronger then 2012 for them, and begs the question why is the industry releasing all these huge titles on the older hardware the same year the newer hardware is coming out. The more and more I think about it I dont see PS3 releasing during holiday 2013, and a Spring 2014-Fall 2014 release seems much more likely.

Releasing in 2014 is suicide for Sony. 2 years behind Nintendo and almost certainly a year after MS. Sony cannot afford to give Nintendo a 2 year head start in Japan.


All signs point to a Holiday 2013 launch.

yup
 

USC-fan

Banned
Releasing in 2014 is suicide for Sony. 2 years behind Nintendo and almost certainly a year after MS. Sony cannot afford to give Nintendo a 2 year head start in Japan.




yup
Pretty clear they are not worry about the wiiu. They have already stated they feel the wiiu is on its own. Or something like that.
 
Spring launches don't work - or at least haven't worked for the last two HW launches. And waiting until Holiday 2014 is implausible. Sony aren't giving a year's headstart to Microsoft again, and two years to Nintendo.

All signs point to a Holiday 2013 launch.

What if MS waits tell fall 2014 as well? The Wii U on the market for 2 years, but I dont think this will matter. From the sounds of E3 last month developers dont want to take advantage of any extra hardware there to make the graphics much different. Adds to much cost when 95% of there consumers are on different platforms. Maybe by 2014 some games would start to, but by that point the PS3 and 360 will be right around the corner. I really dont see Wii U affecting the launch of either console. Yes Sony and MS will affect each other, but I see both of them wanting to release in 2014.

Also in the past few hardware launches in there have been two E3's from the reveal E3 to the launch E3. I dont see them revealing it next E3 and then launching 4 months later.
 
What if MS waits tell fall 2014 as well? The Wii U on the market for 2 years, but I dont think this will matter. From the sounds of E3 last month developers dont want to take advantage of any extra hardware there to make the graphics much different. Adds to much cost when 95% of there consumers are on different platforms. Maybe by 2014 some games would start to, but by that point the PS3 and 360 will be right around the corner. I really dont see Wii U affecting the launch of either console. Yes Sony and MS will affect each other, but I see both of them wanting to release in 2014.

Also in the past few hardware launches in there have been two E3's from the reveal E3 to the launch E3. I dont see them revealing it next E3 and then launching 4 months later.
Neither maker needs to reveal at E3, Sony unveiled the Vita at a standalone function, for example.

And neither maker can wait until Fall 2014. The US market is collapsing from generational fatigue. All those games you listed, they're necessary just to give life support to these ageing systems.
 

McHuj

Member
Pretty clear they are not worry about the wiiu. .

They should be and they probably are despite their false bravado PR. If they're not worried, then that explains a lot of their current financial state.

I dont see them revealing it next E3 and then launching 4 months later.

Does any one still remember the 360 being announces (not at E3) in 2005 and launching that same year? Or the Vita being announced at a special event (not at E3) and launching that same year?

I think both consoles will be announced before E3 of next year at special events.
 
Releasing in 2014 is suicide for Sony. 2 years behind Nintendo and almost certainly a year after MS. Sony cannot afford to give Nintendo a 2 year head start in Japan.

How about Japan launch 2013, R.O.W 2014? It's not like those big western PS3 titles would do too much damage over there.
 
How about Japan launch 2013, R.O.W 2014? It's not like those big western PS3 titles would do too much damage over there.

This is very possible. They did this with Vita.

They should be and they probably are despite their false bravado PR. If they're not worried, then that explains a lot of their current financial state.



Does any one still remember the 360 being announces (not at E3) in 2005 and launching that same year? Or the Vita being announced at a special event (not at E3) and launching that same year?

I think both consoles will be announced before E3 of next year at special events.

No I do not remember that about 360. Vita was announced at a "Playstation Meeting" in Jan 2011, and released in NA in Feb. 2012. Yes in Japan they released in Dec. 2011, just barely made it. Im sure a big console release like PS4 would be even harder for them to do in the same time frame.
 

KageMaru

Member
What if MS waits tell fall 2014 as well? The Wii U on the market for 2 years, but I dont think this will matter. From the sounds of E3 last month developers dont want to take advantage of any extra hardware there to make the graphics much different. Adds to much cost when 95% of there consumers are on different platforms. Maybe by 2014 some games would start to, but by that point the PS3 and 360 will be right around the corner. I really dont see Wii U affecting the launch of either console. Yes Sony and MS will affect each other, but I see both of them wanting to release in 2014.

Also in the past few hardware launches in there have been two E3's from the reveal E3 to the launch E3. I dont see them revealing it next E3 and then launching 4 months later.

Funny thing is MS originally wanted to wait for 2014 before Nintendo announced the Wii-U. So they pushed plans up, which in turn eliminated any chance of Sony waiting till 2014. I'm sure they aren't worried about the Wii-U now, but the gears are in motion and now they risk launching a year after Sony if they decide to wait.

They should be and they probably are despite their false bravado PR. If they're not worried, then that explains a lot of their current financial state.

Why should they be worried about the Wii-U? Not sure how their current financial state has anything to do with what Nintendo does with the Wii-U.
 
The Japanese market isn't collapsing as much as the US market. It would make more sense to launch in the US first, if they were having a staggered launch.

While, for Microsoft the notion of a Japanese launch first is obviously unfathomable; which would mean Sony launching the PS4 missing the holiday season in the west 6 months after their major competitor. Which would be a stupid move.

Holiday 2014 is the most plausible date for both MS and Sony.
 

McHuj

Member
Why should they be worried about the Wii-U? Not sure how their current financial state has anything to do with what Nintendo does with the Wii-U.

It's not the WiiU, it's the arrogant our shit-don't-stink attitude that's hurting them. But they should absolutely be worried about the WiiU. Sony hasn't had a platform outsell a Nintendo one since the PS2 in Japan. Their latest attempt with the Vita is getting slaughter by the WiiU in Japan. I bet the Vita isn't really competing with the 3DS either?

Sony needs to get their shit together, acknowledge the competition and release a viable competitor with an acceptable price and on time.
 
The Japanese market isn't collapsing as much as the US market. It would make more sense to launch in the US first, if they were having a staggered launch.

While, for Microsoft the notion of a Japanese launch first is obviously unfathomable; which would mean Sony launching the PS4 missing the holiday season in the west 6 months after their major competitor. Which would be a stupid move.

Holiday 2014 is the most plausible date for both MS and Sony.

Wait are you agreeing with me on a fall 2014 launch or was that a typo? You mean 2013? Sony have NEVER released in NA before Japan.
 
Wait are you agreeing with me on a fall 2014 launch or was that a typo? You mean 2013? Sony have NEVER released in NA before Japan.
It was a typo. And I'm aware they haven't, and the likelihood they will with the PS4 is also slim. Ergo, unless there are major production issues, a worldwide 2013 launch is the most plausible scenario.
 

KageMaru

Member
It's not the WiiU, it's the arrogant our shit-don't-stink attitude that's hurting them. But they should absolutely be worried about the WiiU. Sony hasn't had a platform outsell a Nintendo one since the PS2 in Japan. Their latest attempt with the Vita is getting slaughter by the WiiU in Japan. I bet the Vita isn't really competing with the 3DS either?

Sony needs to get their shit together, acknowledge the competition and release a viable competitor with an acceptable price and on time.

Aside from the typical PR bravado, I think they realize they aren't untouchable, unlike early this Gen. I also think they see MS, Google, and Apple as bigger threats than Nintendo for living room entertainment.

Also it's different for handhelds IMO. Performance and longevity don't play as much of a role. So yeah I see the PSV in competition with the 3DS.
 
Blu-ray drive - $35
HDD - $50 ???
GPU - $70 AMD 6950 cost [6850 cost AMD $40]
CPU -$95 AMD 4 core Bulldozer [high estimate]
GDDR5 -$43.13 per 2GB [86.26 for 4GB] AMD BOM data sheet

Total $336.26 now we carry over isuppli slim break down from 2009 couldnt find any else.

Power supply $20.35
Cooler Assembly $11.27
I/O Bridge Controller $5.59
Bluetooth $3.92
Other components $79.52
Manufacturing and test costs $9.81
$130.46

AMD BOM http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/1461/q2msa.gif
http://www.qj.net/qjnet/playstation-3/isuppli-sony-close-to-breaking-even-with-ps3-slim.html

Total Estimate $466.72

A $66 loss per console sold at $400. With a smaller HDD like 500GB it would bring the cost down by about $20. Anyone have a better cost of HDD? And use a 6850 gpu core and you are about break even....

That's in line with my view of the hardware. The accessories would take the total cost up to or just above $100 over $399.
 

USC-fan

Banned
That's in line with my view of the hardware. The accessories would take the total cost up to or just above $100 over $399.

That's already included. That estimate is also the high end. That doesn't factor retail mark up. Not sure what it would be on a console.
 

Iacobellis

Junior Member
This is very possible. They did this with Vita.



No I do not remember that about 360. Vita was announced at a "Playstation Meeting" in Jan 2011, and released in NA in Feb. 2012. Yes in Japan they released in Dec. 2011, just barely made it. Im sure a big console release like PS4 would be even harder for them to do in the same time frame.

The Xbox 360 was officially announced back in May 2005 on MTV. The earliest memories I have of the console were reports of overheating issues and seeing one of those "Jump In." commercials on TV.
 
I'm taking about controller, a/v cables, and whatever else is included in the retail box. That's not included.

its included which is why I'm saying they might have another $75 to spend if you drop it down $30 by including a cheaper HDD thats no bigger then 500GB, assuming your going with our $100-$130 loss per console estimate. I think they can do a bit better than the specs in the OP by late 2013. 2tflop GPU seems like a good conservative estimate. I hoping for 2.25-2.5tflop gpu which would be close to 10x PS3( i know its a bit of a stretch but its possible, unlikely, but possible)
 
Other components $79.52

You took that from iSuppli. That's not included under "Other Components".

iSuppli’s teardown analysis accounts only for hardware and manufacturing costs and does not take into consideration other expenses such as software, box contents and royalties. Thus, the difference between the cost of the product and the U.S. price is even greater than $31.27

Given its extensive range of capabilities, the PlayStation 3 has always been a complex product with a large number of components. But the latest version is simplified considerably in terms of not only component and subsystem counts but also overall complexity. Excluding the controller and the box contents, the latest version of the PlayStation 3 includes approximately 2,568 components—down from 4,048 in the original version.

When they do teardowns they normally list accessories separately.
 

StevieP

Banned
Unlike Nintendo current financial state?

Which is still far more stable than the entirety of Sony's

Aside from the typical PR bravado, I think they realize they aren't untouchable, unlike early this Gen. I also think they see MS, Google, and Apple as bigger threats than Nintendo for living room entertainment.

Also it's different for handhelds IMO. Performance and longevity don't play as much of a role. So yeah I see the PSV in competition with the 3DS.

They should be taking all of those competitors seriously. Giving anyone a foot in the door for too long is a bad idea. Even fall of 2013 is too long, IMO, looking at the current state of the market.

everyone said:
BOM breakdowns from various internet sites that aren't ever accurate

What you should all remember is that retailer margins also eat up quite a bit of profitability and those retail margins need to be fat if they want retailers to make shelf space for the system, games and accessories.

Put it this way. Go look up the Wii BOM at launch from those "guestimate" sites. Then compare it to the figure from Forbes that had Nintendo making $6/console at launch.
 

Paertan

Member
What's stopping Sony from releasing late-gen PS3 games on the PS4 but with higher settings?

Well if the hardware is too different(most likely is) the entire game needs to be compiled using an compiler that can convert PS3 code to PS4 code. Some hands on changes are inevitable. But just putting a PS3 disc in the PS4 and hoping for higher settings, well that´s just hoping too much I would say.
 
its included which is why I'm saying they might have another $75 to spend if you drop it down $30 by including a cheaper HDD thats no bigger then 500GB, assuming your going with our $100-$130 loss per console estimate. I think they can do a bit better than the specs in the OP by late 2013. 2tflop GPU seems like a good conservative estimate. I hoping for 2.25-2.5tflop gpu which would be close to 10x PS3( i know its a bit of a stretch but its possible, unlikely, but possible)

I agree with you I just messed up my own calculations. In my eyes the Playstation 4 could be easily sold at 399$ and 349€ to cover some of the loss EU citizen get royally screwed again. However I could also live with a 399€ console if that means Sony put the hardware worth it in it. Not just cutting their subsidy from ~100 to 0 and making the customer pay. To be honest 400€ for a console with a lifespan of ~6-8 years doesn't sound that bad even a Nexus 7 cost 200$ and is neither a "premium" or "prestige" product. All this talk about Sony being doomed if the console costs "more" is in my eyes exaggerated and sounds more like personal whining - because of course I am happy aswell if I have to pay less.
 
60 fps would limit graphical capabilities, but maybe they can mandate a 60fps option. Sacrifice IQ/fidelity for frame rate. Bah, who am I kidding.

Hopefully they mandate some form of AA(really good AA not just 2x or just a cheap FXAA solution) and 720p as the minimum resolution. I want GoW3 levels in most games. I know MLAA wont work for every type of game, but something with the same effectiveness that is shown in GoW3. What would that be 4x AA level?
 

missile

Member
Quite funny how many here think that floating-point operations per seconds
(FLOPS) are any valuable measure these days. Those times are over. It's just
a marketing thing. One can build a processor doing tens of T(erra)FLOPS.
Switching the transistors in an ALU can be done at terra-hertz speeds.
That's not the problem. The problem is the memory, i. e. the latency and
bandwidth. Any serious programmer who as programmed algorithms on larger
datasets will come to recognize that the performance is almost always
bounded by I/O, esp. if the data structures are more sophisticated. Memory
access directly translates to application performance. The real issue today
and esp. for the future to come is random access memory with respect to time,
i.e. how long does it take to update an arbitrary memory location in the
system? Or stated otherwise, how many updates per second on any given
(randomly accessed) memory location? Well, this is not any news within
certain communities who do already suffer from these issues today. It's the
scientific community, esp. the high-performance computing (HPC) community.
They do have TFLOPS without end, but are almost always limited by memory
I/O. To address these issues a benchmark test were created (called
RandomAccess, similar to LINPACK) that profiles the memory architecture of a
given system. And the unit of measurement is called GUPS (Giga UPdates per
Second). And that's the new boy in town.
 
What you should all remember is that retailer margins also eat up quite a bit of profitability and those retail margins need to be fat if they want retailers to make shelf space for the system, games and accessories.

Put it this way. Go look up the Wii BOM at launch from those "guestimate" sites. Then compare it to the figure from Forbes that had Nintendo making $6/console at launch.

Isuppli is one of the most accurate there is. The get numbers from various manufactuers. Its not perfect but the differences are negligible.
 
[...]
What you should all remember is that retailer margins also eat up quite a bit of profitability and those retail margins need to be fat if they want retailers to make shelf space for the system, games and accessories.[...]

Afaik that's not completely true, at least not for the consoles themselves. Retailers sell consoles at a very low margin, as they make their profit from selling software and accessoires.
 
Retailer margin on a $400 console would probably be somewhere between $20-30 (based on GameStop earnings, where gross margins on new HW have an average margin of ~6-7% depending on the FY).
 

JaseC

gave away the keys to the kingdom.
Quite funny how many here think that floating-point operations per seconds
(FLOPS) are any valuable measure these days. Those times are over. It's just
a marketing thing. One can build a processor doing tens of T(erra)FLOPS.
Switching the transistors in an ALU can be done at terra-hertz speeds.
That's not the problem. The problem is the memory, i. e. the latency and
bandwidth. Any serious programmer who as programmed algorithms on larger
datasets will come to recognize that the performance is almost always
bounded by I/O, esp. if the data structures are more sophisticated. Memory
access directly translates to application performance. The real issue today
and esp. for the future to come is random access memory with respect to time,
i.e. how long does it take to update an arbitrary memory location in the
system? Or stated otherwise, how many updates per second on any given
(randomly accessed) memory location? Well, this is not any news within
certain communities who do already suffer from these issues today. It's the
scientific community, esp. the high-performance computing (HPC) community.
They do have TFLOPS without end, but are almost always limited by memory
I/O. To address these issues a benchmark test were created (called
RandomAccess, similar to LINPACK) that profiles the memory architecture of a
given system. And the unit of measurement is called GUPS (Giga UPdates per
Second). And that's the new boy in town.

You don't have to hit Enter whenever you near the horizontal end of the "Reply to Thread" text box.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
McHuj said:
Sony needs to get their shit together, acknowledge the competition and release a viable competitor with an acceptable price and on time.

LOL

Sony's Wii-U competitor is called the PS3 and has been out for years already.
 

missile

Member
You don't have to hit Enter whenever you near the horizontal end of the "Reply to Thread" text box.
I'm a poor guy sitting behind my old 386 and a CRT running at 80x25 in text
mode surfing the net using Lynx. It's a tough life for me. Perhaps you can
spend me a dollar or two.
 
You keep on believing that.

It seems obvious, this will be at least 2-3x GPU over Wii U, even if worst case the RAM is 2GB for both (this even believing WiiU=2GB RAm and ~500 Gflops GPU, which I'm highly skeptical on both counts)

And close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, it means nothing in video games. 2X might as well be 100x. Hell 1.5x might as well be.
 
Amazon here lists the Wii-U with 349€ - according to Nintendo they "always" at least break even with their prices. So a tablet controller (I assume 50-100€ price tag)+ console at 250€ which is the original Wii price (please don't consider this bashing) with a modern feature set at a PS3 on steroids level costs 349€. That means we bascily have Wii 2012 version (hardware) + tablet controller. Sony (hopefully) without a tablet controller can now spend at least the same money (349€) on the PS4 without negative backslash on the price. If now sony really starts to subsidize the PS4 again we could be looking at a console worth 400-450€.

Just a quick and dirty comparison:

A PC with AMD A8-5500 (Trinity) that has 4 cores (2 Bulldozer modules from Piledriver generation) with HD 7560D and a HD7670 (1GB GDDR5), 4GB RAM (DDR3), 1000GB HDD, DVD, etc. costs 499€

So I think Sony could really do pretty well with a console worth (not cost) 450€ ...
 

2MF

Member
Amazon here lists the Wii-U with 349€

This is most likely Amazon's guess for the price, Nintendo has not announced the price yet. All you can say is that Amazon.de does not expect a price above 349 € (otherwise their preorder price guarantee would mean they'd take a loss on each preorder).
 

onQ123

Member
It seems obvious, this will be at least 2-3x GPU over Wii U, even if worst case the RAM is 2GB for both (this even believing WiiU=2GB RAm and ~500 Gflops GPU, which I'm highly skeptical on both counts)

And close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, it means nothing in video games. 2X might as well be 100x. Hell 1.5x might as well be.

Strange because Xbox was over 2X the PS2 in most cases but still wasn't able to convince most people to get the Xbox over the PS2.


power isn't everything.
 
This is most likely Amazon's guess for the price, Nintendo has not announced the price yet. All you can say is that Amazon.de does not expect a price above 349 € (otherwise their preorder price guarantee would mean they'd take a loss on each preorder).

They had it on 399€ before - of course it is just a guess for now but I can't see how the Wii-U which is in my eyes a Wii 2 + Tablet controller be sold for anything less than 300-400€. I calculate 250€ for the console + ?? for the controller (which I guess is around 50-100€).
 

Allonym

There should be more tampons in gaming
Strange because Xbox was over 2X the PS2 in most cases but still wasn't able to convince most people to get the Xbox over the PS2.


power isn't everything.

That power didn't translate into the games though. Most ports only had minor graphical differences. Only things like Doom 3, Half Life 2, Chronicles of Riddick and Ninja Gaiden were the most notable games that showed the Box's prowess. Well those and Otogi
 

onQ123

Member
I want this remote to come with the PS4 or at least have the touch pad made into the PS4 controller.

New Sony remote for Google TV

EXCLUSIVE PREVIEW: New Sony Google TV Set-top Box - Arrives July 22


________________________________________________________





That power didn't translate into the games though. Most ports only had minor graphical differences. Only things like Doom 3, Half Life 2, Chronicles of Riddick and Ninja Gaiden were the most notable games that showed the Box's prowess. Well those and Otogi

The Xbox showed it's power over the PS2 just like PSP/Vita showed their power over DS/3DS but that power just don't mean as much as the games , functionality , price & reputation.
 

StevieP

Banned
LOL

Sony's Wii-U competitor is called the PS3 and has been out for years already.

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

Retailer margin on a $400 console would probably be somewhere between $20-30 (based on GameStop earnings, where gross margins on new HW have an average margin of ~6-7% depending on the FY).

Right, so when you take into account just estimated BOM figures you're doing it wrong. That was my point. Look at iSuppli's Wii estimate from 2006, subtract it from the $6/console, and ask yourself where the rest of the money went.

The Xbox showed it's power over the PS2 just like PSP/Vita showed their power over DS/3DS but that power just don't mean as much as the games , functionality , price & reputation.

Exactly right. And out of those factors, it's the software that always pushes the hardware. Not the other way around.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom