dragonbane
Member
Man they killed off the Wii completely and it still sold better in the last 3 months than the WiiU. That is kinda sad.
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Nintendo FY13: $70M Net Income; WiiU 3.45M, NDS retires, 3DS/WiiU miss expectations
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
The deluxe value will be hurt by the end of the year either way, since eshop 10% money back is gone in January, the basic with NintendoLand and 32GB ram, is a deluxe, it's a stealth sku shift. The only missing feature is the stands and casing for NL. I agree there is no route to 9M, not unless people really want it this year and it isn't predictable to see a huge demand increase even with software titles coming out. If they announce Wii Sports U and it is received well, I guess it is possible but that sort of thing wouldn't exactly make sense to me and shouldn't be expected to be a big seller just because it is Wii Sports.
Some charts...
Nice to see the 3DSes numbers tracking roughly the same or better than the other handhelds. It was always clear that it would never reach the same success as teh DS, which frankly was just insane, but it'S doing really great
shinra-bansho
Member
Any Basic SKUs are going to have to be fire-saled off if they're really as unwanted as it seems. Nintendo are not going to recall retailer and production shipments and upgrade them. :/
As for your plan, even if it was feasible, I don't see how it would result in the sales you envisage.
The system is currently selling-through like ~40K units a week globally (I'm just guestimating Europe, but it shouldn't be far off). Retailers are still struggling to sell-through its launch shipments.
Optimistically, that's another million units shipped through the next two quarters. Maybe 1.2. They're not going to ship 5-6M units on a $50 price cut Oct through Mar. Even with Mario Kart.
I don't think they ever hit their shipment targets anyway, but in combination with claiming a forecast of 100B yen profit, these seem particularly egregious.
What the general opinion regarding KI: Uprising sales? Personally, I see them as 'good, but not great' considering the large marketing push the game got (like the TCG and the CGI shorts). I'm playing it at the moment and am absolutely loving it and I hope it continues to sell well.
michaelius
Banned
Hmm ? They look great for me.
lol
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Yeah.
Maybe not the best, but what can be expected of a game that had seen one single release almost three decades ago.
Unregistered007
Banned
Honestly the Wii U software numbers should like fucking horse shit to me. Unless they are counting the digital arcade game sales.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I agree. It is a demand problem, and a $50 price cut won't fix that. Nintendo has to make people want this console, and quite frankly I don't know how they do that.
They cannot sell it on more power or better services, they cannot sell it on new media functionality, they cannot sell it on the strength of the new controller...what angle are they going to use. If the only hook they have is Mario + Pokemon, well it will be fascinating to see just how strong those marquees are.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Doesn't matter. It's always better to present a price cut than a value increase, marketing 101. Nintendo make/lose the same amount of money but people will feel like they are getting a better deal all of a sudden.
Firesaling the Wii U basics at $249 will help increase the installed base also.
test_account
XP-39C²
The currency exchange stuff, does that mean that they buy and sell currency? I'm pretty sure that it does, but where do they take this money from?
Wii Us are unwanted at even 199. There's more necessary.
michaelius
Banned
Isn't it just a recalculation of dollar/Euro reserves to Yens at current exchange rate without actualy touching the money ?
IdreamofHIME
Member
Luigi cleaning up
they own assets and investments in USD but do all their financial reporting in Yen. So if everything the business stays the same, but the value of the Yen falls in relation to the USD, then their assests in USD are worth more in Yen. So on the balance sheet, that is recorded as a net gain in terms of Yen. But it is not something that Nintendo has done, or part of their business. It is completely out of their hands, so it is not a good way to evaluate the health of their business. make sense?
shinra-bansho
Member
AFAIK, it's not so much that Nintendo is engaging in currency trade but that Nintendo holds foreign currency including USD as part of their cash and deposits, the devaluation of the yen to the USD results in an increased valuation of these foreign currency assets (in yen). And this revaluation is recorded as income.
zomg or someone more knowledgeable is free to correct if wrong.
It is just that.
test_account
XP-39C²
I cant say 100% for sure, but i would at least assume that they would have to do some actual sales to get the money, otherwise it is just "value on the paper" (kinda like stocks/shares, they go up and down in value, but they arent actually "worth" anything before someone sells or buys them. Its first when someone buys or sells the shares that the money is being exchanged).
AHA-Lambda
Member
Haven't had a chance to read through the thread but WiiU seems obviously awful but apart from that the 3DS number and the numbers overall seem better than I expected.
That seem about right or am I totally wrong?
That seem about right or am I totally wrong?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Agreed, but firesaling the current stock of basics would at least get another million into the installed base. Right now 349/$349/£299 for the premium SKU is a complete rip off. If PS4/Durango come out at competitive price points then it is going to be an absolute bloodbath. I think 199/$249/£179 for the deluxe is what Nintendo need to aim at, but reaching it is not going to be easy.
exactly, it is ''value on paper
They'll probably adjust it but they'll probably have really big plans for the holidays and the rest of the FY. We'll probably get a better idea later today and E3 but I'm kinda expecting their next attempt at a game with huge appeal like they had on the DS and Wii that caused them to blow up.
KillerMan91
Member
Software sales for all Nintendo platforms are kinda pitiful. PS3 alone probably beat those all combined during last quarter. How the world has changed just in couple of years.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
It's just their forex holdings being valued with the latest yen prices. Nintendo (all Japanese multinationals for that matter) hold a lot of their profits in the US/EU because Japan has a high repatriation tax, makes more sense to leave the cash where it is, though it does make them susceptible to fluctuations in yen prices. It is just a paper gain because the actual money is held in local currency, USD/EUR/GBP.
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/info/presen/index.html
They must have a ton of faith/hope/prayer in the upcoming months releases to hit that new forecast
Obviously they have not shown all their cards just yet, i just do not see them hitting that 9 million
On the good news part, the 2 best games on the 3DS are also the best selling ones, good to see, hope we get another 3D Land on the 3DS, doubt anyone would object that
Obviously they have not shown all their cards just yet, i just do not see them hitting that 9 million
On the good news part, the 2 best games on the 3DS are also the best selling ones, good to see, hope we get another 3D Land on the 3DS, doubt anyone would object that
Wait, what ? January 2015 maybe.
It looks like Nintendo overshoot the Q4 deliveries for both systems by a big margin.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok. I thought that they would sell something to get the actual profit, but "value on paper" also makes sense because that is what things are worth right now if they decided to sell things. Thanks for the info everyone!
It's technically not a price cut, also when I say Might be able to sell 6 or 7 million this year, that is a best case, of course if everything is a hit and we are all wrong, then I guess 9 million is POSSIBLE, but highly improbable.
Also basic skus would just received a Nintendo land voucher, maybe nsmbu as well, they shouldn't be making more of the basic sku, currently it should sell its inventories of the basic sku (without making new ones) over the next two quarters, after which. They can relaunch the Wii U as a single sku at $299 with a slightly better value proposition without hurting the profit of the console at all. PS4 and XB3 pricing of course should effect this, if they are both below 400, Nintendo should drop the Wii U's price to 250, they probably won't of course but that would be the reasonable response. If those consoles cost 500, than Nintendo is safe THIS holiday season at $299 but the price would have to come down sometime next year as those consoles start to gain momentum (software exclusives)
Basically if they are able to do this and release Mario U, Mario Kart and some other big hits, 6 Million can be achieved even 7 Million is possible again these are both the best I can see the system selling depending on how XB3/PS4 are received this holiday.
Thanks.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
What makes the 9 million even more absurd is, right up until August (and even then Pikmin isn't a system seller), the WiiU currently has another 5 months of terrible sales possibly getting far worse before they get better with a "big release" like a Mario and whatever else they have up their sleeve seemingly only possibly being as early as September.
That means theyre hoping the remaining 7 months the WiiU is going to perform such a fucking insane aboutface that I can only assume they're also going to half the price of the console.
That means theyre hoping the remaining 7 months the WiiU is going to perform such a fucking insane aboutface that I can only assume they're also going to half the price of the console.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Unlikely but something has to happen.
Sony revised the PSVita forecast twice because they knew nothing was coming. Nintendo we have to assume think otherwise for the Wii U.
shinra-bansho
Member
Ignoring the two giant elephant in the room: the PS3 and 360.
It's not competing for the high-end early adopter. The only thing MS and Sony's next-gen pricing decisions are going to affect are Sony's and Microsoft's next-gen pricing decisions respectively.
I really can't see a $300 Wii U being an appealing value proposition for the market they're targeting. And you realise to hit even your target the Wii U sales would, off-the top of my head, need to at least quadruple essentially.
Yep, completely agree. I'm expecting sub-$200 SKUs, perhaps even as low as $149, from both.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Or they will do what they did this year and just revise the forecast downwards in October, and again in January when sales don't add up to much. Basically what Sony do every year for Vita!
There is also a very good chance that Sony and MS will drop the prices of their entry level boxes just before starting the new generation to ensure that PS3/360 are not competing for the same market. PS3 and 360 will become budget oriented boxes and that is going to hurt the Wii U because the graphics are basically the same but it will be much more expensive.
I rarely agree with you, but yes Wii U isn't going to move very much at all over the next 5 months and I doubt heavily that they could do even 5million in the last 7 months. I don't think it will even be interesting to watch until August, which is probably the worst of it, I was planning on getting a Wii U before a 3DS more for miiverse than anything, but now I am buying a XL this week (in america so I have to buy red or blue) and I'll be waiting until Wii U is compelling to me as someone who likes Nintendo games, this isn't likely to happen until MarioKart or Mario U.
Nintendo not responding to a lower PS4 or XB3 price point is a horrible mistake imo. However again I agree for the dozenth time, Wii U won't hit 9 million this year, and will be lucky to do 2/3rd that.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not saying Nintendo shouldn't respond if Sony and Microsoft's prices are surprisingly low (which I'm not expecting without some sort of subscription model), if it happens they should. I'm saying that it won't matter if they end up being as expected ~$400, or end up being ~$500, or even higher.
High prices will stifle the PS4 and next XBOX's adoption, sure, but it's not going to drive the consumers who would have bought them into the arms of the Wii U.
I guess we are agreeing again? so they should cut the price but it probably won't help the sales anyways, pretty much what I expect, however making Wii U more attractive as a secondary console should be the point of a price drop compared to those consoles, as there is very little point in owning both XB3 and PS4 IMO since their libraries will largely be the same (at least expected) meaning Wii U being almost entirely home to exclusives (though mostly Nintendo Exclusives) is still a decent offer here, heck it even comes with it's own screen while the room mate is playing CoD, someone else could be playing the new Zelda or Bayonetta 2, ect. (again, I'm only talking about gamers who buy more than one console, especially early in their life cycles) Not the general population or even really Nintendo's over all market focus but to ignore the core gamer again isn't going to do Nintendo any favors.
Bruno MB
Member
Thanks for the graphs.
NDS was a software beast, no other portable console will come closer to its software sales. It has an attach rate of 6.1.
3DS software sales are effectively very low.
Majmun
Member
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Some charts...
That's the most interesting to me. The revenue breakdown shows that not only is handheld revenue way down from it's peak, it has yet to start growing again. This is the point where DS really exploded, I just don't see 3DS making the same jump. It will track in between GBA and PSP for the foreseeable future now rather than with DS.
The chart also shows just how heavily the Wii expanded Nintendo's audience (and revenues) from a low of just $79m in a single quarter with GCN, they peaked at over $1bn in a single quarter with Wii. We could be heading for an era where Nintendo bring in the same amount of money they did with GCN/GBA but without the GCN hardware profit margins.
Awesome, thanks very much. And holy cow at that NDS near vertical line.
First: It did grow compared to last year. Though I agree, nothing in the forseeable future will ever reproduce the success of the DS. The DS was just insane once it really took off.
Second: The chart shows numbers for fiscall years, not quarters.
Basileus777
Member
The WiiU numbers are no surprise. The real story here is how terrible 3DS' software is selling. 3rd party sales outside of Japan must be abysmal.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Duh, billions of yen per year. Again, like yesterday I haven't had my lunch yet and skipped breakfast, it can do weird things for my reading comprehension ability...
As for handheld, I would call it flat.
There is very little on it from Western 3rd parties.