• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Anecdotal evidence RE: Xbox One vs PS4 demand

Status
Not open for further replies.

Crisco

Banned
I wonder what the production bottlenecks are for each console. For the PS4 it's most likely the GDDR5, but what about the XBO. Possibly the size of the APU, but it's really not much larger than the PS4s, and both are dwarfed by the most recent GPUs from both AMD and nVidia. Sony's apparent production capacity advantage doesn't make much sense if you just compare the consoles. I'm thinking the Kinect, especially the ToF sensor, is having a significant effect on MS's ability to pump these things out.
 

GavinGT

Banned
I wonder what the production bottlenecks are for each console. For the PS4 it's most likely the GDDR5, but what about the XBO. Possibly the size of the APU, but it's really not much larger than the PS4s, and both are dwarfed by the most recent GPUs from both AMD and nVidia. Sony's apparent production capacity advantage doesn't make much sense if you just compare the consoles. I'm thinking the Kinect, especially the ToF sensor, is having a significant effect on MS's ability to pump these things out.

ESRAM and Kinect components were the early rumors.
 
Cross posting now. Tut tut...

I still think sales parity is better for the consumer. What is the incentive for a platform holder to drop their prices and continue to add better value if they are in a dominate position.

Losing marketshare to their competitor?

If sales parity occurs do you think a race to the bottom will occur and not more likely a cartel like scenario?
 

gtj1092

Member
This is honestly what I'm extremely optimistically hoping for. If XB1 achieves 80 million, and Sony scores 100 million, that's a win for everyone, in my book.

Where do see MS selling 80 million xones? Do you think they will sell over 50 million in the US because that's the only way I can see them coming close to 80 mill. Their European sales are all but certain to drop so sales have to be made up somewhere.
 
I feel like I'm going to be repeating this in all these sales threads, but really, what benefit is there for the consumer from Sony dominating?

I mean even as a PS4 owner, what is it you think that huge sales will lead to? This isn't the PS2 era -- no major publisher is going to risk putting a game exclusively on one platform unless it's given a hat made or money. The cost of development is too high. This is the generation that will take us even closer to the homogeneous in all factors.


I think the big benefit to consumers would be:

--It makes Microsoft's former 360 strategy of moneyhatting 3rd-parties for exclusivity and/or timed exclusivity and/or exclusive content much, much harder to pull off. Publishers will carefully weigh the significant downsides of such arrangements--especially for new IP where establishing a strong brand identity/userbase early is fundamentally important for future sequels's sales--with the easy cash-grab that such arrangements represented in the past. Publishers will be far more wary to enter into such arrangements that can alienate a large user base from an IP, if they are thinking a bit further down the road and not trying to just make a quick score from a moneyhat.

1st-party exclusivity is expected and unavoidable. But 3rd-party exclusivity deals never really benefit the consumer, as they create completely artificial barriers to entry for the consumer who may only want to pay for one box under the TV.

--It helps defeat the intrigue of perhaps developing to the lowest common denominator of hardware performance, when the console with the larger userbase is also the one with the more-powerful hardware, as would be the case with the PS4 if it maintains a sales lead to go along with its hardware performance advantage.​

And this may be the most-important reason, long-term at least:

It'll drive the point home to MS that their BS policies need some changing. Hopefully it'll also prevent them from trying anything too stupid in the future and lead to improvements in the way they handle business (think how Sony turned the PS3 around).

If consumers express through sales that they believe Microsoft has "lost their way," as they did last gen with Sony, then if Microsoft wants to truly listen and do better next time, and get back to making the products gamers want rather than producing a box that looks more like a "big picture" boardroom strategy session gone horribly out-of-control, then we'll all be much happier next time around. A humbling fall from 1st place really worked wonders for Sony. While Microsoft doesn't have 1st place standing to lose, perhaps a similarly-dissapointing sales performance by Xbone will nudge MS back in the right direction.
 

GavinGT

Banned
Where do see MS selling 80 million xones? Do you think they will sell over 50 million in the US because that's the only way I can see them coming close to 80 mill. Their European sales are all but certain to drop so sales have to be made up somewhere.

They're likely zeroing in on 50 million Xbox 360 sales in the US.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
If sales parity occurs do you think a race to the bottom will occur and not more likely a cartel like scenario?

It's an interesting question. Obviously the company losing market share will be forced to drop pricing earlier then they anticipated to try to gain traction which is good from the consumer if that is your chosen platform. On the other hand. There is little incentive for the dominate player to try to match pricing until they start seeing their market share slipping away.

What do you think. Do you think sales parity is better for the consumer?
 

Finalizer

Member
You too!? I've been looking for that post for a week now so I can just post it whenever I hear that silly discussion come up.

Well I stopped being lazy and found it. Actually, looking up Y2Kev's posts with "competition" as a keyword brings up other entertaining results too, but here's the one I was referring to (and presumably you were looking for):

Why would you want that. Surely sales parity is better for the consumer?

No, it's not. I don't understand where this is coming from.

Competitive platforms are good for the consumer. Sales parity is completely irrelevant to the consumer. In fact, if one platform lags behind the other, it is because the consumer has decided that one platform is not actually good for them. That is how it works. The dog wags the tail.

This "competition is good" thing has grown completely into a monster. Competition is the means by which a lessor is weeded out. If a platform is weaker, it should lose. That is competition. This whole "parity is good for the consumer"/"two platforms selling well is good for the consumer" sentiment is bizarre.

What you are espousing is not capitalism or competition but instead crony capitalism in which market competitors are propped up for the sake of having market competitors.
 
Did Apple do anything when Samsung gobbled up their marketshare? Except sue them, of course. No, they just sat there and said "Fuck you, buy it; we're Apple." And people did.

What exactly do you expect out of the mobile phone market? The only thing I could see as a reactionary move would be a price cut. Smart phones are no longer truly innovating but are merely iterations on themselves. It is becoming increasingly difficult to truly differentiate your product in meaningful ways whereas with consoles you can always always differentiate your product with exclusive games.

Look at Bayonetta 2 or X on Wii U

Let's flip this why would sales parity be better for the consumer so you can have your equal say etc.

It's an interesting question. Obviously the company losing market share will be forced to drop pricing earlier then they anticipated to try to gain traction which is good from the consumer if that is your chosen platform. On the other hand. There is little incentive for the dominate player to try to match pricing until they start seeing their market share slipping away.

What do you think. Do you think sales parity is better for the consumer?

I do agree that the majority of added competition would come from the non dominant player with unequal install bases. But assuming the nondominant player adds something truly worthwhile then there is a decent chance the dominant player will try to up their value prop to better compete.

It's a bit hit or miss. MS is only just trying to improve lives value with gold after seeing the writing on the wall so clearly didn't react when they were dominant but on the flip side when Sony saw what MS was trying to do with Xbox 360 or perhaps it was the DC that did it, they tried their own internet add on for PS2 but obviously it was crap. Still though they tried to better compete
 

gamers

Banned
I think people are getting sales crazy with all these early numbers. I predict: Neither will reach 80M.


Book mark this puppy now.
 
What exactly do you expect out of the mobile phone market?

Features. Isn't that the equivalent of bringing the games as was mentioned? iOS still lags far, far behind what Android can offer, but Apple doesn't give a shit because they're popular and have a brand that people worship. I can see exactly the same thing happening with Sony. Or have we forgotten it is the same company that installed DRM rootkits on everyone's PCs and then said "You don't even know what a rootkit is, so what's the problem?"

Let's flip this why would sales parity be better for the consumer so you can have your equal say etc.

It stops one company getting arrogant and stagnating in their offerings because they don't need to. They have the high ground. Again, Kev is wrong: the superior product doesn't always win and it's not a case of the better product being elevated to superiority by the intelligent consumer.

It's far too early to tell which will end up the better product at this point. All we've been able to do is look at what's in the box, and that's what many have already made their decisions on. Celebrating a "Return of the King" at this point is just downright dangerous for the consumer.
 
I fear for NPD day on GAF.

iZ8G2G8becnR1.jpg


God help us all.

A symbolic clock is as nourishing to the intellect as a photo of new consoles to gamers.

****

Xbox One can display the same maximum number of pixels as Xbox 360; structurally, there's no difference.


:D
 

S¡mon

Banned
Xbox One isn't out here yet (Holland), but demand for the PS4 appears to be extremely high. The first shipment was sold out on launch day and there was not a single PS4 unit out there for 'regular retail' sales - everything is going to pre-orders.

Second batch is expected to arrive in the coming weeks... also everything is going to pre-orders. You won't find a single PS4 on shelves. Third batch is expected to arrive in January and it's most likely after that, when we'll see the PS4 on actual shelves in stores.
 
Pretty impressive difference. Ireland must be really leaning heavily toward PS4 right at launch now if what I learned from an older GAF thread is generally true. In that older news article, it was written that Ireland is the country with the highest number of preorders for PS4 per capita, as suggested by numbers coming from Gamestop. MS has its work cut out for it if Ireland was also the country with the highest level of preorders prior to launch in Europe, also from the article at the link.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I was at Best Buy picking up my television. The guy ringing up my order mentioned that they had received a dozen PS4s in earlier that morning, made an in-store announcement over the PA and they were gone in minutes.

The #thirst is real.


Wow! Dat demand.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
It's a bit hit or miss. MS is only just trying to improve lives value with gold after seeing the writing on the wall so clearly didn't react when they were dominant but on the flip side when Sony saw what MS was trying to do with Xbox 360 or perhaps it was the DC that did it, they tried their own internet add on for PS2 but obviously it was crap. Still though they tried to better compete

I also remember how arrogant Sony was at the end of the PS2 cycle and the launch of PS3 which they thought would whitewash the Xbox 360.
So from a consumer point of view. Having a very dominate platform holder wasn't good. On the flip side. It forced MS to try really hard at getting that Xbox 360 out quick at a good price.
 
PS4 at Best Buy

Xbox One at Best Buy

Every store in my area has them in stock of course they are holding them for the ad on Sunday. Monday I'll check again and see if any have leftovers

How reliable is that though? It shows as available in stores in my area as well, yet neither console is actually available for arranging in-store pickup via the site to any store. I also called a couple stores on the list that showed it as in stock, and they did not actually have either system. Seems like a Target situation. They also told me they did not know when they would get more.
 

wizzbang

Banned
There goes the "MS ships more consoles hence the longer time to sell out excuse"
:p
Jk, but I believe Sony ships most of their units to Gaming specific stores due to the longer queues over there

That rumour is also circulating in forums in Australia, if you pre-ordered at EB (Gamestop) you're likely to get your console more. The "normal" homewares stores are getting less stock. Apparently.
 

UberTag

Member
I'm actually surprised that the two consoles are even in a competitive sales race. More than surprised. Closer to being shocked.

Common sense suggests that the superior system that also costs $100 less would be utterly trampling the inferior system that costs $100 more. But the sales between bone and PS4 are actually competitive (according to the actual numbers, not anecdotes).

Common sense loses.
Common sense always loses in the face of brand loyalty, overwhelming marketing, the "who cares how much it costs, I need to buy something for Christmas" mentality, the slower supply of PS4s and media FUD.
 

txag2005

Banned
Seems like Sony is in a tough spot in some ways. They have to spread out their production stock worldwide to meet what seems to be pretty high demand everywhere, especially in Europe. MS seems to be taking advantage by flooding the US with stock knowing there are plenty of anxious consumers hopeful to get at least one console this Christmas.
 

GavinGT

Banned
How reliable is that though? It shows as available in stores in my area as well, yet neither console is actually available for arranging in-store pickup via the site to any store. I also called a couple stores on the list that showed it as in stock, and they did not actually have either system. Seems like a Target situation. They also told me they did not know when they would get more.

Totally unreliable. It screams, "Guys, please visit our stores! Pleaseee!".
 

Nakor

Member
Here in New Zealand, one of the The Warehouse locations is getting 100+ PS4's on Dec 21, don't know how many the other locations are getting but I'm assuming around the same - this store isn't special.
 
Features. Isn't that the equivalent of bringing the games as was mentioned? iOS still lags far, far behind what Android can offer, but Apple doesn't give a shit because they're popular and have a brand that people worship. I can see exactly the same thing happening with Sony. Or have we forgotten it is the same company that installed DRM rootkits on everyone's PCs and then said "You don't even know what a rootkit is, so what's the problem?"

Android is what it is because it has to compete with iOS and thus had to try and prove itself to offer worthwhile value prop.

Yes iOS is lagging behind Android in features but do you know for a fact that iOS would have gotten it's recent feature set had it not starting losing marketshare to Android?

Original iphone didn't ship with copy and paste among a ton of super basic features.

If iOS and android sold the same amount regardless of features then why would Apple have any incentive to innovate? They'll sell the same no matter what

With the loss of sales apple has faced they have added features just not at the same rate, they are trying but as android sales still go up they try harder and harder to compete

It stops one company getting arrogant and stagnating in their offerings because they don't need to. They have the high ground. Again, Kev is wrong: the superior product doesn't always win and it's not a case of the better product being elevated to superiority by the intelligent consumer.

It's far too early to tell which will end up the better product at this point. All we've been able to do is look at what's in the box, and that's what many have already made their decisions on. Celebrating a "Return of the King" at this point is just downright dangerous for the consumer.

Yes I completely agree that at the end of the generation we don't know which will be the better product then but now at this point in time just hardware wise we know for sure which is the better product, better value prop. Games are subjective so I could see that argument being made.

A company needs to innovate for two reasons 1. Get more sales 2 keep the consumers they already have

If MS is competitive enough they can steal enough customers to make Sony competitive. It is then their prerogative to do so. And if Sony feels the pressure they will be forced to try and become more competitive. That's how competition works

I also remember how arrogant Sony was at the end of the PS2 cycle and the launch of PS3 which they thought would whitewash the Xbox 360.
So from a consumer point of view. Having a very dominate platform holder wasn't good. On the flip side. It forced MS to try really hard at getting that Xbox 360 out quick at a good price.

But in that instance it FORCED sony to reevaluate their stance and provide a better value prop. Do you know for certain that if we didn't have arrogant Sony we'd still have the golden years of the PS3? Do you know that their fall from market leader isn't what caused the focus on 1P studios and the creation of great exclusives that may not have existed otherwise?

I believe the completion from unequal install bases is likely the most fierce and thus creates the best benefit to consumers as platform holders go all in
 

stormplyr

Member
I don't know if I necessarily agree with the whole sales parity is good idea. If a console is clearly a better proposition for the money and the consumers as a whole have a large preference for that one console then that should be the successful console. Competition is good to push the makers of product to make the best possible product at the best price for consumers. However I don't think consumers should prop up an "inferior" product just for the sake of keeping the status quo. If one console is clearly the lesser product in value for the dollar or doesn't offer the best services, worse business practices etc then the company designing that product should experience the lesser sales. Have that company be humbled so they can hopefully learn and come out of it better.
 

Steroyd

Member
It's an interesting question. Obviously the company losing market share will be forced to drop pricing earlier then they anticipated to try to gain traction which is good from the consumer if that is your chosen platform. On the other hand. There is little incentive for the dominate player to try to match pricing until they start seeing their market share slipping away.

At certain price points certain people will buy the console, it's how the PS2 dominated the way it did by re-invigorating sales through price cuts near the holiday season despite being in a dominating position, stagnating sales is just as bad as losing marketshare.
 

Eusis

Member
The PS4 sign is also fake, not that they weren't running for the PS4's, that was probably edited in to make the gif more striking.
Yeah, definitely must've been there to make it more obvious for people not knowing why that crowd was there, otherwise it'd just look like a Black Friday rush that ignored XB1.
 

CorrisD

badchoiceboobies
I popped into Game earlier on my walk to work around lunch time to see about picking up PS4 CoD and trading in a current gen version of it and some other games.

There was a small crowd around the PS4 they had on one side with people taking it in turns to play FIFA against each other, browsing the games and talking to the Game staff. They had a X1 on the opposite side, I don't know if it was a demo unit or just a model for playing vids on the screen, but they hadn't even turned it on during what is generally a pretty busy time.

It means nothing in the end of course, but it feels like such a switch from what you would have seen 5-6 years ago.
 

Biker19

Banned
So let's look? What did they do? Apart from a price drop, removing features (backwards compatibility), a new model, and a rebranding? Oh, yeah, I forgot, it was all forgiven because like 5 years after launch they finally started giving away actual games on PS+.

Likewise, what did Microsoft and Nintendo do when the PS2 was kicking seven shades of crap out of them? Absolutely sweet fuck all.

People were turning towards PS3 because of the lower price tag, the newer model, better advertising for the system, & by bringing out more 1st/2nd party games.

Microsoft, meanwhile, just rested on their laurels, relying more on 3rd party games while ditching their core fanbase with Kinect & are only using Halo, Gears, & Forza as their exclusives for the past 3 years.
 

Finalizer

Member
I don't know if I necessarily agree with the whole sales parity is good idea. If a console is clearly a better proposition for the money and the consumers as a whole have a large preference for that one console then that should be the successful console. Competition is good to push the makers of product to make the best possible product at the best price for consumers. However I don't think consumers should prop up an "inferior" product just for the sake of keeping the status quo. If one console is clearly the lesser product in value for the dollar or doesn't offer the best services, worse business practices etc then the company designing that product should experience the lesser sales. Have that company be humbled so they can hopefully learn and come out of it better.

Pretty much the same thought process as the post I quoted earlier. It just seems the whole notion of "sales parity is desirable" is a strange transformation of "competition is good for the industry" that's come about by people misunderstanding the nature of competition in the first place.

Another little gem I found in my little digging bit:

Y2Kev said:
UNCMark said:
Perhaps you missed the cola wars, the fast food wars, the beer wars.

I didn't. Perhaps YOU did. None of those competitors were on "even footing" when it came to sales. They still aren't. Unless you think coke at 48b in sales is on even footing with PepsiCo at 16b.

Sales parity is IRRELEVANT to the consumer. Sales differential is the RESULT of competition.

Competition results in a winner and a loser. It's not best for the consumer to have everyone on even footing "just because that's best for the consumer." You won't find evidence of this in history; you are depicting controlled markets and zombie corporations.

Here's how it should work: two systems took different paths to the market. That is true. The market will validate them both independently. Someone might lose and it's going to suck for some Internet group.

People are confusing the outcome of competition with the benefits of competition, which is where this silliness over sales comes in.
 

KoopaTheCasual

Junior Member
Where do see MS selling 80 million xones? Do you think they will sell over 50 million in the US because that's the only way I can see them coming close to 80 mill. Their European sales are all but certain to drop so sales have to be made up somewhere.

Well, the XB1 sales, "for the time being" are tracking over 360 in both US and UK. You also have to consider the fact that not all 100 million of the Wii owners were "casuals". Some of those dedicated gamers will swing both to XB1 and PS4. Also remember that the 360 is already over 80 million consoles and will end closer to 90 million, so an 80 million lifetime for XB1 isn't that extraordinary and in fact a decline in their ecosystem.

I expect the entire market to shrink (mainly because of the absence of the Wii phenomenon), but I still believe the total sales of this generation will at least reach 200 million, which does not contradict currently available data on market size.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom