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[KoopaTheCasual]

Remember that the 360 sold relatively poorly out the gate, as it was preceded by the Xbox and most people were waiting for Sony's new console. It was a combination of 599 US DOLLARS and Gears of War that lead to the 360 taking off.

I think the Xbox One's launch is more comparable to the ps3's early years, which saw high launch sales due to its predecessor's popularity, followed by a very steep drop off due to its price.

It remains to be seen how far they'll fall relative to Sony circa 2007, but they lack the advantages Sony had that allowed them to recover gracefully: being the de facto HD console of choice in Japan and much of Europe, and having a splattering of additional exclusives because of that that would pad their already strong first party line up, helping them prop up sales globally.

I think Xbox One reaching 80 million will depend heavily on the reception of its media features, and whether Microsoft can land an exclusive game that's "the next big thing". I, personally, don't think the former will be perceived as being different enough from ps4 to swing enough sales in their direction, and the latter is completely unknowable.

Good points, we're pretty much at a big question mark, so early in the race, but I still believe those 200 million sales are out there (this takes into account the 10 year sales, not just when the new console launch).

Apple and Samsung are winning the smartphone war because they make and sell the best value proposition. Samsung offering the better value proposition is why they began to eat Apple's marketshare.

If dominance breeds complacency, to the extent that the company's products no longer offer sufficient value proposition, then they will lose marketshare.
If Sony becomes too dominant with the PS4 and that results in them resting on their laurels, and their product consequently stops being the more compelling for the consumer market, then they will be "punished" by the consumer market. If they become dominant and yet continue to strive to provide the best value proposition, then they will be "rewarded." But that's on Sony, or Microsoft, or Nintendo, or EA, or Activision; it's not on the consumer.

That is the nature of competition. And that is how it should be.

The onus is on the maker to make compelling products, not on the buyer to buy or think kindly of them, and try to create false balance, regardless of whether they are compelling.

It's really scary that this basic explanation of free market competition is even needed. This is just the way things go. If Sony gets "arrogant" they will be beaten back just like the XB1 was. Simple as that.

Wrong.

MS shot themselves in the foot early. So hardcore gamers decide to "stick it to the man" and goto PS4. The softcore/casual people probably still think that Xbox One still has the DRM policies in place. They also go for the PS4 due to that. Not to mention its cheaper.

So now what you have, are a bunch of people (especially folks on the Gaf) who are trying to find any type of "evidence" that their choice was the right one. You want your purchase to be justified. You want the other console to suffer so that you dont feel as though you are missing out on anything. Its understandable.

It has nothing to do with Halo. And the stock and sales so far also have zero bearing. Threads like this are becoming the most annoying thing about neogaf lately.

Its a console war.. I get it. But some people here act like the war is already over, and those people are the ones who are trying to justify their purchase with evidence that is hardly an indicator of anything.

I have nothing to add, just think this post bears repeating.

 

[Codeblew]

We'll find out in less than a week, heh. If the Black Friday reports are to be believed and if it's true that Sony hasn't resupplied America since launch...it wouldn't surprise me if Xbox One outsold PS4 the first month.

No one wants to give out numbers after Black Friday so I guess it's anyone's game.

Who said Sony hasn't resupplied since launch? There were at least 2 extra shipments in November. They just don't stay on shelves for more than a few minutes.

 

[polyh3dron]

I also remember how arrogant Sony was at the end of the PS2 cycle and the launch of PS3 which they thought would whitewash the Xbox 360.
So from a consumer point of view. Having a very dominate platform holder wasn't good. On the flip side. It forced MS to try really hard at getting that Xbox 360 out quick at a good price.

lol yeah I remember the talk of the 360 only being Xbox 1.5 and all that. The Sony execs talking all that shit were absolutely fucking nuts.

Also, just a word to the wise because this is increasingly becoming the most common grammatical error that I see on the internet:

Dominate is a verb. It is pronounced dom-in-eight.
Dominant is an adjective. It is pronounced dom-in-ant.

In the quoted instance, you're supposed to use the adjective, dominant.

 

[UNCMark]

lol yeah I remember the talk of the 360 only being Xbox 1.5 and all that. The Sony execs talking all that shit were absolutely fucking nuts.

Yeah, and some people say PS2's success didn't go to Sony's head. Unfortunately for them, almost all their businesses crashed at exactly the same time.

 

[Einbroch]

Last week I went to Walmart to pick up a dinnerware set and they had a One sitting in a cart full of stock to be put back on the floor. There were like six people just standing next to the cart waiting for the clerk to out it back behind the glass. I'm sure it was nuts when he did, but I didn't want to stand around to see what happened.

I'm pretty sure he didn't care either, he was putting out crappy Now CDs incredibly slowly. Trolling, perhaps.

 

[GremlinFool]

The "free market" explanations offered by some of the armchair experts in this thread ignores the bulk of industrial economics literature in the context of oligopolistically competitive firms consolidating market power and actually offering worse value propositions to consumers in the name of higher profits. In that sense, if competition is limited to the extent that PS4 effectively (but not legally per se) monopolizes the industry and entry into the video game industry by any other manufacturer is prohibitively expensive so as to delay or prevent new entrants, then consumers may very well be worse off in the "free market."

 

[shinra-bansho]

It's really scary that this basic explanation of free market competition is even needed.

It's relatively natural for people to dislike the idea that the broad market may not find the product they enjoy appealing - it's probably the product of post-purchase rationalisation. They prefer to shift the culpability onto anything but the product; "marketing" or rather a lack of advertising is often the target. In this case it's a widespread "grudge" against Microsoft, rather than possibility that the merits of the product may not weigh up against the competition's value proposition. The market isn't being "fair" to their product of preference, and they're just trying to level that playing field.

This isn't exclusive to the XB1 (and I'm not saying that the broad market doesn't find that appealing, that remains to be seen). And it's not exclusive to the video game industry.

They then proceed to further rationalise this stance by attaching some overarching altruistic goal - it's for the greater good of the industry that products [that consumers simply don't find as appealing do well] because we need "competition" to keep ___ on their toes.

 

[GavinGT]

Last week I went to Walmart to pick up a dinnerware set and they had a One sitting in a cart full of stock to be put back on the floor. There were like six people just standing next to the cart waiting for the clerk to out it back behind the glass. I'm sure it was nuts when he did, but I didn't want to stand around to see what happened.

I'm pretty sure he didn't care either, he was putting out crappy Now CDs incredibly slowly. Trolling, perhaps.

Nah, NeoGAF assured me demand is incredibly low. They were probably all eyeing that last copy of Now That's What I Call Music 48. Now that's a hot holiday product. You seen the size of that Xbone box? No way that's gonna fit into a stocking!

 

[woodypop]

The benefit is that it shows competitors they made the wrong fucking choices. That we care about performance and cost, and we don't appreciate being fucked around with during console reveals that cater to a completely different crowd. We made your brand, if you don't want to cater to us we will buy the competition.

Yup, pretty much sums up how I feel.

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

You know what's annoying? People who just that can't stand that Sony for once is doing something good for once that you can't say anything particularly bad about.

What Makes me pissed, mostly from XBone champions is none of this corporate bullshit they hate now, that was happening last Gen when Sony couldn't even catch a break on anything that they did is all of a sudden a bad thing and matters now.

Where the hell was all this passion when Sony was the underdog and when they were taking all the hits despite coming back from terrible situation. Where was all this cry for equality and this whole "one not being better than the other" bull when the media continued to beat down the PS3 making it as if it was the "uncool" device to own? This Xbox defending is getting real old.


Get over it. MS messed up and it's showing. That 2007 PS3 will never be forgotten when it was stuck on the shelves for the same stuff. It will get back up there and yes, talks about who is winning will happen because it did last Gen for the entire duration of it and it's not changing now. Get over it. No one really cares about securing the purchase they already have. No one needs to justify if they have it already. It is what it is, and that what this thread is here to prove.

 

[Boss Man]

It's actually eerily similar on message boards now to what it was at the beginning of last generation. Only difference is that everything is opposite. (MS fucking up, Sony doing everything right, Wii not selling)

 

[johnny956]

Who said Sony hasn't resupplied since launch? There were at least 2 extra shipments in November. They just don't stay on shelves for more than a few minutes.

I can tell you the numbers I'm seeing at Best Buy are pretty decent. My store got close to 200 for launch (over 150 were preorders) and we are holding 75 for Sunday. I didn't get a chance to check Xbox numbers but I'll look that up tomorrow.

 

[UNCMark]

You know what's annoying? People who just that can't stand that Sony for once is doing something good for once that you can't say anything particularly bad about.

For once? Were you born after the PS1/PS2 and PSP?

 

[Biker19]

It's relatively natural for people to dislike the idea that the broad market may not find the product they enjoy appealing - it's probably the product of post-purchase rationalisation. They prefer to shift the culpability onto anything but the product; "marketing" or rather a lack of advertising is often the target. In this case it's a widespread "grudge" against Microsoft, rather than possibility that the merits of the product may not weigh up against the competition's value proposition. The market isn't being "fair" to their product of preference, and they're just trying to level that playing field.

This isn't exclusive to the XB1 (and I'm not saying that the broad market doesn't find that appealing, that remains to be seen). And it's not exclusive to the video game industry.

They then proceed to further rationalise this stance by attaching some overarching altruistic goal - it's for the greater good of the industry that products [that consumers simply don't find as appealing do well] because we need "competition" to keep ___ on their toes.

You know what's annoying? People who just that can't stand that Sony for once is doing something good for once that you can't say anything particularly bad about.

What makes me pissed, mostly from XBone champions is none of this corporate bullshit they hate now, that was happening last Gen when Sony couldn't even catch a break on anything that they did is all of a sudden a bad thing and matters now.

Where the hell was all this passion when Sony was the underdog and when they were taking all the hits despite coming back from terrible situation. Where was all this cry for equality and this whole "one not being better than the other" bull when the media continued to beat down the PS3 making it as if it was the "uncool" device to own? This Xbox defending is getting real old.

Get over it. MS messed up and it's showing. That 2007 PS3 will never be forgotten when it was stuck on the shelves for the same stuff. It will get back up there and yes, talks about who is winning will happen because it did last Gen for the entire duration of it and it's not changing now. Get over it. No one really cares about securing the purchase they already have. No one needs to justify if they have it already. It is what it is, and that what this thread is here to prove.

These examples are what posters like oconnomiyaki doesn't seem to be getting.

 

[Y2Kev]

The "free market" explanations offered by some of the armchair experts in this thread ignores the bulk of industrial economics literature in the context of oligopolistically competitive firms consolidating market power and actually offering worse value propositions to consumers in the name of higher profits. In that sense, if competition is limited to the extent that PS4 effectively (but not legally per se) monopolizes the industry and entry into the video game industry by any other manufacturer is prohibitively expensive so as to delay or prevent new entrants, then consumers may very well be worse off in the "free market."

Let me be clear (and I have said so on the board previously): I do not believe the console manufacturers are competing under perfect competition (or anything resembling it). Barriers to entry in the market are high, and we are not talking about highly commoditized products (yet).

Given that the console gaming has shown itself to quite literally reset every few years, I'm not sure I buy that PS4 effectively dominating this cycle would have any implications for the next.

 

[twobear]

As a 'competition', this gen is already over. MS will never be in first place, and they will never be equal. The only question is how badly they lose, and what their reaction to being a distant second place is. I don't have very high hopes for them responding to it in a way that improves the value of their system; I suspect they'll just introduce new ways to wring money out of the unfortunate people who buy it.

 

[nateeasy]

In enjoying my console purchase very much. That's all that matters.

 

[aspiegamer]

This must be like the twilight zone for Microsoft. It's a position they've never been in. Their marketing and supply people face the weirdest dilemma while trying to push their new product. The more they keep the Xbox in supply on the shelves the less desirable it looks as a product. However, if you don't ship them you obviously can't sell them. Trying to balance out an equation for that has to be stressful when there's so much money and market momentum on the line. You have to spend money marketing it, too, but the relative returns on that depend on how else you've tried to balance things. They have to try to win on reputation and anecdotal marketing but it seems there's no way to do so in the short term. That's what's going on here (and one reason you can debate this all day).

Not that they haven't gone head-to-head with other devices before (Zune, Windows Phone, Surface) but the timing of any one very specific thing they were against wasn't out at the exact same moment. This is a problem unique to the gaming industry. Were there 10+ console makers as there are for PCs, tablets or phones, "one on one" wouldn't mean anything.

That's the problem with having to play from behind. Sony only needs to churn out units. There are no hard choices. Microsoft handed them the ball at E3 and the only thing they've had to do is run, putting one foot in front of the other and not trip. Amazingly, they haven't done so in any way that seemed to kill their momentum. Realistically that can't last forever, and I'm looking forward to how the next 12 months in particular turn out.

 

[oconnomiyaki]

And these examples are what posters like oconnomiyaki doesn't seem to be getting.

No, it's just that I don't agree. You might see that as not understanding, but whatever.

For example:

it's probably the product of post-purchase rationalisation.

This implies that it's some kind of defense mechanism, the need to validate a purchase based on buyer's remorse. Ignoring for a second that I didn't actually pay for my Xbox or that I'll be getting a PS4 anyway, it tries to dismiss any criticism of corporate worship by saying that it's just sour grapes.

Where the hell was all this passion when Sony was the underdog and when they were taking all the hits despite coming back from terrible situation.

Likewise, perhaps it's just a case of different circles or different memories, but there was plenty of people rooting for Sony to turn it around. The situation was a little different -- the Wii had stunned everyone, and the 360 was out for an entire year before the PS3 -- but by the time the rebrand came around and Sony started doing things like this commercial, plenty of people were saying "See, now Sony's getting it right!"

Thing is, it's not like Sony was even making huge shifts in what it offered the consumer. It dropped the price, but it also removed a bunch of stuff as well. But people wanted Sony to do well because they did make those sorts of arguments that people are saying didn't happen. For example, people were thinking that Sony's success would force Microsoft to make XBL free. (How quaint that seems in retrospect.)

What it seems is that people have a problem with what they see as iconoclasts. There's not much that can be done about it.

I hate Manchester United fans for similar reasons to why I hate all these goddamn Kaz and Banderas gifs.

 

[Y2Kev]

Actually, I really don't even think we should have this thread. This is like flamewar central and we're not even talking about the OP anymore.