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[Torokil]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...g-a-lot-of-young-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Clinton is earning 41 percent, on average, with young voters. In both 2008 and 2012, by contrast, Barack Obama won at least 60 percent of these voters, according to the American National Election Studies (ANES).

But it’s not that younger voters like Trump. Quite the opposite: Only 20 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds across the five surveys say they’ll vote for him. If that held, it would be the worst performance by a major party nominee among voters under 30 since at least 1952, according to the ANES.

Rather, 18- to 29-year-olds seem to be flirting with third-party candidates more than usual this year. Both Johnson and Stein are polling in the double digits, and Johnson is nearly pulling the same percentage of the under-30 vote as Trump. That shouldn’t necessarily to be too surprising given that younger voters are more likely to identify as independents than are older voters. Younger voters were also much more likely to vote for independent Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary than other age groups were.

With an unusually high share of under-30 voters saying they’ll vote third party, Clinton’s margin over Trump among this age group is lower than we’d expect given how Obama did in the last two election cycles. Per the ANES, Obama won the under-30 crowd by 34 percentage points in 2008 and by 24 points in 2012. Right now, Clinton’s margin over Trump among 18- to -29- year-olds is 21 points. This isn’t a super fair comparison, as we’re putting a pre-election poll which includes undecided voters against a post-election poll of actual voters (with no undecideds, obviously).2 Also, third party candidates have historically lost support as Election Day approaches, so it’s possible some young voters will find their way back to the Democratic Party. But it’s something to keep an eye on.

What makes the under-30 vote’s flirtation with third-party candidates especially interesting is that this group, in 2016, is even more ethnically and racially diverse than it was in 2008 and 2012. Longtime FiveThirtyEight readers know that we’re skeptical of the “permanent Democratic majority” hypothesis — the belief that a diversifying electorate will give Democrats an enduring advantage against Republicans in presidential elections. And this is one small example of why we’re skeptical: Coalitions change. Instead of automatically going Democratic, younger voters, for now, seem to be checking out options beyond the two major parties.

Clinton leads by enough overall right now that underperforming a bit with young voters isn’t a big deal. If the election becomes closer, however, Clinton may need help appealing to this group.

What does GAF think of the long term implications of this? Is it just a one time event for this election, or will we see an overall shift in US politics in the next 10-15 years when the boomers start dying off?

 

[Eidan]

I don't think there will be a long term effect with this.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Both candidates have done numerous dumb shit. They deserve to lose some votes. And, young people are less entrenched in voting along party lines, I'd suspect, so it isn't surprising that we're fed up with this crap to the point we'll vote elsewhere.

With that said, I'll still vote Hilldawg because I want to so everything I can to make sure Trump doesn't win. Oh, and I don't think this'll be enough to have long term implications. Let's see how the next four years go, though.

 

[Pryce]

I think that young liberals identify more with the Sanders/Warren view of the party and young repubs align more with the Libertarian view of the party. Since they do not like Clinton or Trump (especially Trump), they go to other areas.

Any long term affects? No. They will still vote for their ideology going forward.

 

[Salvadora]

I think it's a combination of young people apathy & uninspiring candidates.

Obama is a once in a generation type politician.

 

[ahoyhoy]

I think that young liberals identify more with the Sanders/Warren view of the party and your repubs are align more with the Libertarian view of the party. Since they do not like Clinton or Trump (especially Trump), they go to other areas.

Yep. Young people tend to be on the extreme ends of the political spectrum.

Obama was just really inspiring which is why he did well that year.

 

[pretty done]

I think it's a combination of young people apathy & uninspiring candidates.

Obama is a once in a generation type politician.

It's a shame he can't get a third term. He'd demolish Hillary and Trump for free.

I think even Romney would have demolished Hillary and Trump for free. This election sucks.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Clinton's policies are not as appealing to younger voters as her rival Sanders was, and many find her an uninspiring candidate; it's hardly surprising disappointed voters would be seeking refuge elsewhere. She'll win regardless, it won't have much short-term consequence. It could be damaging for the Democrats in the future if they continue to take younger voters for granted, though.

 

[Grexeno]

Young people have no political frame of reference. They either can't remember a time when Obama wasn't the President or they didn't start caring until the second he was elected or after.

 

[phanphare]

bodes well for the future tbh

granted I think people voting third party should just suck it up and go with clinton (just my opinion, I respect anyone's personal voting choices) but at the same time young people being fed up with the shit choices we're given gives me hope for the future of politics in america

 

[Salvadora]

It's a shame he can't get a third term. He'd demolish Hillary and Trump for free.

I think even Romney would have demolished Hillary and Trump for free. This election sucks.

I was actually surprised how "presidential" Romney came across in his rebuke of Trump.

For a second, briefly, I could have seen him in the office.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Living in a college town, I honestly believe that 90% of young adults supporting Johnson are doing so because he wants to legalize marijuana. If either Clinton/Trump were notably pushing for this, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a notable uptick in their support.

I was actually surprised how "presidential" Romney came across in his rebuke of Trump.

For a second, briefly, I could have seen him in the office.

There would have been a lot of cons, more than Obama for sure, but I really think Romney would have been a decent president.

 

[BrutishMrFish]

It could be damaging for the Democrats in the future if they continue to take younger voters for granted, though.

More young people would have to actually vote on a regular basis for the Democrats to take them for granted in the first place. It will only be a problem if the Republicans push hard to appeal to them, which isn't any more likely than the Democrats doing the same.

 

[Mimosa97]

I feel like if Biden was the nominee he would be pulling almost the same numbers Obama did.

A lot of young people simply don't like Hillary.

 

[kirblar]

Clinton's policies are not as appealing to younger voters as her rival Sanders was, and many find her an uninspiring candidate; it's hardly surprising disappointed voters would be seeking refuge elsewhere. She'll win regardless, it won't have much short-term consequence. It could be damaging for the Democrats in the future if they continue to take younger voters for granted, though.

Modern successful Dec primary winners are almost always doing it on their first try. Their electorate will rebel against also rans from prior elections, which is why Clinton's had so many issues both times.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Quite frankly I'm not sure if I think Trump's polling numbers for anything would indicate a trend versus previous republicans as he is his own special case of terrible on top of the regular Republican failings with certain demographics

Hillary's is more troubling potentially. I wonder if Bernie added to that effect

 

[jmood88]

These people will either learn that they need to get involved with viable candidates and parties to have any real effect or they'll become the old people who vote for Weed Party candidates/abstain and be irrelevant.

Clinton's policies are not as appealing to younger voters as her rival Sanders was, and many find her an uninspiring candidate; it's hardly surprising disappointed voters would be seeking refuge elsewhere. She'll win regardless, it won't have much short-term consequence. It could be damaging for the Democrats in the future if they continue to take younger voters for granted, though.

They don't take young voters for granted, they just work to appeal to the people who actually show up to vote.

 

[Salvadora]

I feel like if Biden was the nominee he would be pulling almost the same numbers Obama did.

A lot of young people simply don't like Hillary.

I doubt it.

He's got folksy charm, sure, but he would just be another old white guy at the end of the day.

 

[B-Dubs]

Young people have no political frame of reference. They either can't remember a time when Obama wasn't the President or they didn't start caring until the second he was elected or after.

They also have no frame of reference for Clinton herself. If this is your first presidential election then you likely came to age politically after she had left the state department and reentered public life. You have no memory of her as first lady, as senator, as secretary of state; so it's easier for those nebulous attacks with no real substance to take hold.

All that said, this is kind of a dumb article to write until the votes have actually been counted and there's solid numbers we can draw from.

 

[Envelope]

tbf, youngsters have really only been old enough to care that much about politics while Bams was pres, who was really a once in a lifetime kind of guy

 

[Abinash117]

I don't actually think many young voters will end up voting for the third party candidates for many different reasons, but I do think they'll get a little more than usual. That being said Hillary does have an image problem for some young voters, I usually think young voters value heavily authenticity, excitement, and something fresh. It'll be hard for Hillary to get more of them because she probably isn't seen has some of that, despite her having quite a few proposals that some would support. It would probably would be best for her to have townhall like meetings with many young adults. Even still I expect her to gain more than half the young vote during the election, but turnout might be low.

 

[kirblar]

tbf, youngsters have really only been old enough to care that much about politics while Bams was pres, who was really a once in a lifetime kind of guy

I'm convinced this is a pattern, much like in 2000 w Turd Sandwich/Giant Douche. Kids growing up under 8 years of a dem pres don't understand the danger posed if the presidency flips back.

 

[bman94]

Makes sense. A lot of college students were supporting Bernie Sanders.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

More young people would have to actually vote on a regular basis for the Democrats to take them for granted in the first place. It will only be a problem if the Republicans push hard to appeal to them, which isn't any more likely than the Democrats doing the same.

I think there's two reasons to care. Firstly, young people eventually become older people, though. Neglecting people who are young now means you're less likely to have automatic pull with them when they're older and more likely to vote.

Secondly, you need young people in the mid-terms; the differential engagement between presidential and mid-term elections tracks voter approval - high-approval voters have more consistent turn-out. Obama's low approval ratings with Democrats, particularly young ones, in 2010, definitely played a part in the 2010 midterms, which were absolutely catastrophic for the Democrats and still have repercussions now because of redistricting.

 

[FunkyMunkey]

considering plenty of young voters were supporting sanders and he, for all intents and purposes, told them not to trust hillary, i don't find this surprising. dude is the conductor of the "i feel disenfranchised" train and was punching tickets every day until ceding

tbf, youngsters have really only been old enough to care that much about politics while Bams was pres, who was really a once in a lifetime kind of guy

this is also true. a few presidents from now i'm sure they'll understand just how rare a president like obama is

 

[Wafflecakes]

They won't vote anyways.

...and of those that do they overwhelmingly support Clinton.



I see no problem.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Hillary is a discouraging candidate, so I'm not surprised that so many are looking at third parties this time around. With that said, though, I genuinely consider her the best candidate to have run during this election cycle, period.

 

[Blader]

Per the ANES, Obama won the under-30 crowd by 34 percentage points in 2008 and by 24 points in 2012. Right now, Clinton’s margin over Trump among 18- to -29- year-olds is 21 points. This isn’t a super fair comparison, as we’re putting a pre-election poll which includes undecided voters against a post-election poll of actual voters (with no undecideds, obviously).

Pre-election poll w/ undecideds vs. post-election poll

Let's revisit this in 80 days then.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

They don't take young voters for granted, they just work to appeal to the people who actually show up to vote.

Maybe if you stopped taking them for granted and offered them policies they wanted, they'd show up? This works both ways. It's not the job of the electorate to go vote, it's the job of politicians to give them something to vote for.

 

[bachikarn]

If Hilary and the Dems actually get their platform ideas passed (and win of course), some of the younger voters will turn around, imo

 

[Theonik]

Tbh if Trump was not the spawn of the antichrist I'd probably vote for a third party and not consider Hillary. The thought of President Trump would push me to swallow my pride and vote Hilary though.

 

[Grexeno]

Maybe if you stopped taking them for granted and offered them policies they wanted, they'd show up? This works both ways. It's not the job of the electorate to go vote, it's the job of politicians to give them something to vote for.

Young people generally support fringe policies. Incorporating those views is a quick way to eat shit in the general election.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I bet young people are going to love Cory Booker in 2024

 

[jmood88]

Maybe if you stopped taking them for granted and offered them policies they wanted, they'd show up? This works both ways. It's not the job of the electorate to go vote, it's the job of politicians to give them something to vote for.

This is nothing new; young voters are a historically unreliable electorate and refuse to vote outside of presidential elections, so this is why we have parties that cater to older people who actually go out and participate in the process. If they don't vote, that won't make people stop and attract them, it will make the parties go to the people who do.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

There would have been a lot of cons, more than Obama for sure, but I really think Romney would have been a decent president.

Man trump has fucked our standards into oblivion

 

[shintoki]

They don't take young voters for granted, they just work to appeal to the people who actually show up to vote.

Now whose fault is that?

Clinton's game with young voters is weak. But if the excuse is, "Well they don't show up anyways", you've thrown in the towel. You keep trying, it doesn't matter, They are the biggest, most violate base. But when they do come out and vote, there isn't a bigger group. It is also where all your long term voters will be. Get them young and you have someone who the next 50 years.

And this was obviously coming. From the primaries. Voters under 30. The issue is Trump and Clinton just being weak candidates.

 

[Erevador]

I doubt it.

He's got folksy charm, sure, but he would just be another old white guy at the end of the day.

Nonsense. Bernie Sanders is an old white guy. Young people vote for candidates they believe in.

They don't like Hillary because they view her as inauthentic. Many under 30 also remember Hillary largely for her very aggressive primary campaign against Obama, who was their first political hero.

 

[Eidan]

Maybe if you stopped taking them for granted and offered them policies they wanted, they'd show up? This works both ways. It's not the job of the electorate to go vote, it's the job of politicians to give them something to vote for.

They're taken for granted because they don't fucking vote. Politicians respect electorates with power, and voting is one of those forms of power. If you willfully give that up, expect to be ignored.

 

[jmood88]

Now whose fault is that?

The people who refuse to vote. You don't get candidates you want if you sit out.

Clinton's game with young voters is weak. But if the excuse is, "Well they don't show up anyways", you've thrown in the towel. You keep trying, it doesn't matter, They are the biggest, most violate base. But when they do come out and vote, there isn't a bigger group. It is also where all your long term voters will be. Get them young and you have someone who the next 50 years.

Except there's absolutely no incentive to try to attract them when they won't even show up for candidates hey overwhelmingly support. If politicians were losing because they couldn't attract young voters, then they'd be doing everything they could to get them; but because young voters rarely show up, they aren't made a priority. It's not a hard thing to get.

 

[Blader]

Maybe if you stopped taking them for granted and offered them policies they wanted, they'd show up? This works both ways. It's not the job of the electorate to go vote, it's the job of politicians to give them something to vote for.

What exactly are young voters consistently not being offered that discourages them from voting in the midterms (but, I guess, doesn't discourage them enough from voting in presidential election years)?

The problem is discouragement, it's apathy and ignorance. A lot of younger voters simply don't know or care about their Senate or congressional races. I mean, do you think younger voters also sit out on local elections because they're too discouraged by the candidates running for sheriff or city council to bother? Or because they don't know or care?

 

[Somnid]

Young people have less to lose and therefore vote optimistically rather than pessimistically.

- Old people are concerned with their current medical bills going up, young people don't have medical bills and concerned about not getting stuck in the dumbass medical system all those old people are currently in.

- Old people are concerned about the value of their education versus what they paid. Young people are concerned about not getting stuck in the dumbass educational system all those old people are currently in.

- Old people are concerned about Trump making things worse and therefore vote fearfully for the least bad candidate "winnable" candidate. Young people are concerned about not getting stuck in the dumbass political system all those old people are currently in.

Basically, older voters are looking to make the best of a bad situation, younger voters what to change the bad situation. And if the game isn't fitting their needs they'll go elsewhere, like business where it's much faster to enact changes.

 

[GameAddict411]

Considering that I am in college and I hear what people in that age group have to say, I am not surprised. But what sucks the most is that a lot of them are ignorant. They have no idea what's going on outside their bubble, and they will continue to put a candidate like Hillary Clinton down because of false things about her. Some people just flat out don't want to vote for her because they don't like her. No valid reason, and outside of Gaf I still haven't really heard a valid reason or concern about Clinton. I also noticed that a lot of young people put Hillary and Trump at the same level. Both are "bad","terrible" and many other things. It just shows they have no clue what's going on.

 

[talisayNon]

Tbh if Trump was not the spawn of the antichrist I'd probably vote for a third party and not consider Hillary. The thought of President Trump would push me to swallow my pride and vote Hilary though.

.

 

[MIMIC]

Young people have no political frame of reference. They either can't remember a time when Obama wasn't the President or they didn't start caring until the second he was elected or after.

What does this even mean? Obama got young people interested in voting.

And the problem is.....?

 

[jack_package_200]

They're taken for granted because they don't fucking vote. Politicians respect electorates with power, and voting is one of those forms of power. If you willfully give that up, expect to be ignored.

Honestly this.

Many simply don't care. And for the (corrected) record, the turn out overall this primary was smaller than 2008. Young people just were not energized to go vote. Its been this way for decades. Young people are highly unreliable.

 

[lastflowers]

Young people have no political frame of reference. They either can't remember a time when Obama wasn't the President or they didn't start caring until the second he was elected or after.

Lol

 

[Salvadora]

Nonsense. Bernie Sanders is an old white guy. Young people vote for candidates they believe in.

They don't like Hillary because they view her as inauthentic. Many under 30 also remember Hillary largely for her very aggressive primary campaign against Obama, who was their first political hero.

Exactly.

Biden has been part of the political establishment for literally decades.

He's as much for the status quo as Clinton and would have ran on a "more of the same" message, similarly.

Difference is, he would have sold it in a more folksy granda kinda way.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Obama's wins didn't rely on young voters because relying on them is a really really really bad idea.

 

[Staccat0]

Honestly this.

Many simply don't care. And for the (corrected) record, the turn out overall this primary was smaller than 2008. Young people just were not energized to go vote. Its been this way for decades. Young people are highly unreliable.

Yep!

Voting at lower levels of government is how you shape the platform of the presidential nominees. Young people are fair-weather friends politically.

 

[Eidan]

What does this even mean? Obama got young people interested in voting.

And the problem is.....?

Obama got young people interested in voting for him. The youth still evaporated when he needed them the most: midterms.

Young people on the whole simply aren't engaged in governance, mostly for the reasons Blader stated..