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[The Artisan]

P5 is an anomaly though, not the norm anymore, 2014 was the last year when crossgen games were the norm and common, now the last gen consoles get gimped versions of sports games and very little else. When that happens is when the cross gen period ends for me, sure they'll still be cross-gen games, but when almost every major and minor 3rd party game is current gen only they are pretty irrelevant.

yeah that's why i said technically it already happened with persona 5 - regardless of that, there have been crossgen games last year, whether or not there were less than in previous years they were there, and whether or not there will be more this year, even if the next console comes out next year it will mean that the vast majority of this gen was crossgen.

Tech is growing faster than ever it can't be like previous gens long anymore, especially like PS3 overstayed it's welcome

which would make a new console in 2020 that much more rewarded in hardware

 

[cakely]

Fall 2019 at the earliest, with rumors leading up to an official E3 announcement at E3 2019 where you'll be able to pre-order the console itself.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

I don't know why so many people think that PS5 will be $399. Because I doubt that very much, for two reasons:

1. Inflation

$399 in 2013 is worth more than $399 in 2019.

2. No pressure

PS4 had to succeed. It was Sony's last chance after being behind with PS3, and during a time where Sony was in trouble. That's a big reason why it was $399.

Now things are different. Sony is coming of the success of PS4. They are number one by a large margin. That's why I think they have a bit more options here.

I don't think PS5 will necessarily be $499, but I think it will be higher than $399.

 

[ClubCyberia]

I'm somewhat worried that PS5 will arrive before KH3.

 

[yurinka]

If something is coming in 2018 it would be a slimmer PS4 Pro.

Considering how well PS4 is selling it would be really stupid to release PS5 before 2020. If something, maybe late 2019 would may be ok.

 

[cakely]

The only thing I can think of is that they do a teaser trailer like MS did with Scorpio. They can even not put a date on it and people would go ape shit. They end the E3 conference saying "here is a teaser for what we are working on..we don't have any time frame yet, but rest assured that it is coming....". I mean, Sony is good at announcing game 2-3-4 years out, why not take the opportunity to take out the "Sting" of the Scorpio by showing a teaser of what is in the pipe line.

Announcing a console eighteen months in advance is just bad business. Microsoft may have made that mistake but I really can't see Sony repeating it.

 

[brickarts295]

I'm down for $499 with PS4 BC, UHD Bluray and high specs to allow games to run between​ 4k/30fps and 1080p/60fps.
They sweeten the deal even more if they manage to pull PS3 BC.

But it's to early to get on the hype train. Best guess is an announcement/reveal in spring 2019 and a fall 2019 release. They need to let PS4 numbers to at least surpass PS3 and catch up with PS1/2.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I don't know why so many people think that PS5 will be $399. Because I doubt that very much, for two reasons:

1. Inflation

$399 in 2013 is worth more than $399 in 2019.

2. No pressure

PS4 had to succeed. It was Sony's last chance after being behind with PS3, and during a time where Sony was in trouble. That's a big reason why it was $399.

Now things are different. Sony is coming of the success of PS4. They are number one by a large margin. That's why I think they have a bit more options here.

I don't think PS5 will necessarily be $499, but I think it will be higher than $399.

I think the PS4 Pro showed without room for interpretation that they dont want to go over $399, even for a premium version of their console.

 

[AmyS]

No way.

Holiday 2019 at the soonest.

 

[Head.spawn]

No it's not.

 

[Filthy Casual]

Imagine it got announced at E3 hahaha

Spoiler

yeah as if

 

[farisr]

Fall/Holiday 2019 at the earliest. Fall/Holiday 2020 at the latest.

 

[prag16]

Even if this was true, zero chance it gets announced at E3 2017.

But either way, no. Fall 2019 at the earliest.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

I don't know why so many people think that PS5 will be $399. Because I doubt that very much, for two reasons:

1. Inflation

$399 in 2013 is worth more than $399 in 2019.

2. No pressure

PS4 had to succeed. It was Sony's last chance after being behind with PS3, and during a time where Sony was in trouble. That's a big reason why it was $399.

Now things are different. Sony is coming of the success of PS4. They are number one by a large margin. That's why I think they have a bit more options here.

I don't think PS5 will necessarily be $499, but I think it will be higher than $399.

People have been trying to use this argument for years and most recently to justify the rationale of Scorpio being $500+ despite nothing in the hardware really showing that price being needed to avoid incurring losses while ignoring the fact that processing power per dollar (and technology in general) also gets cheaper and still at a faster rate than currency inflation. Not to mention Sony is no longer dumping hundreds of millions into R&D or exotic or bleeding edge hardware that's potentially difficult to mass produce leading to poor yields.

 

[Irishonion]

I would still put money on 2020.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

I think the PS4 Pro showed without room for interpretation that they dont want to go over $399, even for a premium version of their console.

PS4 Pro is still a 2016 console. And they might have decided to go for $399 again at that time, but they had to make choices like not including an Ultra HD Blu-ray drive, while keeping many parts practically identical to the original PS4.

In 2019, $399 will be significantly less money then it was in 2013. They can't ignore that forever. And while the $499 for Xbox One was a bad decision in a world with a more powerful PS4 for $399, things could have been a lot worse for Xbox, considering all the other problems.

I could imagine a PS5 with a strong focus on gaming and with powerful hardware for maybe up to $450 in 2019. I think this could be a very attractive device.

 

[Cartho]

Can you imagine if they did this though? Without any leaks, just dropped a bomb at E3. Microsoft would be so pissed haha. Would be worth it just to see the internet rage.

Seriously though I can't see this happening.

 

[DECK'ARD]

No way that's happening.

- Not wanted (developers)
- Not needed (sales)

1 of them maybe, but both I think is highly unlikely.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I would still put money on 2020.

I think 7 years is too long, even with a really successful console. I think fall 2019 is perfect.

 

[jroc74]

2020 would give the PS4 a shorter lifespan than both the PS2 and PS3. In no way is it too late.

Not really.

The release dates of both consoles says other wise.

 

[Moon Presence]

Fall 19 is my bet.

 

[EASTC0AST_GH05T]

2018 tho? I just bought a PS4 Pro when it launched.

 

[AmyS]

PS5 won't happen until:

AMD's 7nm FinFET silicon is in mass production for complex chips. Remember they are skipping 10nm because that's not expected to be a major node. 7nm FinFET is closer to 10nm anyway.

AMD's Navi GPU architecture is due (successor to Vega) is due in 2019 on 7nm, not 2018.

AMD's next, next gen APUs (with Zen2 and Navi GPU) called Gray Hawk isn't due until 2019.

HBM3, which will be cheaper and faster than HBM2, isn't due until 2019 at the soonest (2019-2020).

Sony won't release PS5 until they can have at least 2X the performance of Scorpio at the same price. A 12 TFLOP console isn't happening in 2018. Late 2019 is possible.

 

[m4st4]

Ugh. Nope. Can we just get The Last Of Us: Part II and then call it a day for this gen? 2019.

 

[jdstorm]

Past precedent would dictate that they would be 5 years behind modern CPU lineups.

That also keeps their margins within revenue targets and the vast majority of consumers won't know the difference.

Fair enough. So that would make any 2018 PS5 run some form of Puma right. Then upgrade to Zen in 2022. That would also make a lot of sense and probably help with backward compatibility with the base PS4 right?

 

[BasilZero]

If they keep the x86 architecture and same OS. Why not, 100% backward compatibility.

So maybe?

If they do this and have b/c I'll be all up for it.

 

[Apoleptica]

Lot's of fear in this thread, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we got a PS5 in the second half of 2018. Four+ years for a console cycle is enough imo, I think people have gotten too used to the overly long cycle that the 360 and PS3 went through. The PS5 will likely be backwards compatible with PS4 titles and the PS4 will continue getting games well into the PS5's life. Sony needs to compete with scorpio (which lets be real, is a next gen console) and the PS4 PRO is an insignificant of an upgrade over the regular PS4.

Sony won't release PS5 until they can have at least 2X the performance of Scorpio at the same price.

LMAO

 

[Matt]

Fair enough. So that would make any 2018 PS5 run some form of Puma right. Then upgrade to Zen in 2022. That would also make a lot of sense and probably help with backward compatibility with the base PS4 right?

I can't imagine a 2018 PS5 wouldn't use a Zen chip.

 

[jaypah]

A PS5 in 2019 fucks up MS whole plan. 3 years out from Pro but only 2 years out from Scorpio, leaving MS to either clip the Scorpio to not give Sony the jump or sit back and watch the PS4 momentum help carry the PS5 with no next gen console to counter with. 2020 release would see MS and Sony going head to head with MS probably back on their game. They still wouldn't have the 1st party by that point but the rest of the XB1 mistakes aren't going to happen twice.

Sony isn't a group of fanboys, it's a business and they take the competition serious. I'm sure they would love to have a whole year on the market to themselves that shit would be a headshot to MS.

 

[jroc74]

PS5 won't happen until:

AMD's 7nm FinFET silicon is in mass production for complex chips. Remember they are skipping 10nm because that's not expected to be a major node. 7nm FinFET is closer to 10nm anyway.

AMD's Navi GPU architecture is due (successor to Vega) is due in 2019 on 7nm, not 2018.

AMD's next, next gen APUs (with Zen2 and Navi GPU) called Gray Hawk isn't due until 2019.

HBM3, which will be cheaper and faster than HBM2, isn't due until 2019 at the soonest (2019-2020).

Sony won't release PS5 until they can have at least 2X the performance of Scorpio at the same price. A 12 TFLOP console isn't happening in 2018. Late 2019 is possible.

In that case, at a minimum, 2019 seems like a good chance.

Like some of us have been saying, if they continue with the mid gen refreshes the power cycle will just continue to play out like in the smart phone world.

 

[AmyS]

In that case, at a minimum, 2019 seems like a good chance.

Like some of us have been saying, if they continue with the mid gen refreshes the power cycle will just continue to play out like in the smart phone world.

Yeah. Also keep this in mind, an article from November 2013, within a couple weeks of the PS4 and Xbox One releases.

https://www.videogamer.com/news/ea-expects-to-see-a-new-console-generation-in-5-6-years-time

28 Nov 2013

EA expects to see a new console generation in 5-6 years time

Xbox One and PS4 successors to roll out in 2018/2019, exec predicts.

Xbox One and PlayStation 4 may have only just arrived, but that hasn't stopped EA from talking about their successors.

Talking with MCV, EA Studios EVP Patrick Soderlund revealed that he expects the next console generation to arrive in around five to six years time, suggesting that the life spans of PS4 and Xbox One may not live up to those of their predecessors.

"This console cycle [360/PS3] may have gone on a little bit longer than I would have wanted," Soderlund told the site.

"At the same time, you have seen games like The Last of Us and GTA V at the end of a cycle which perhaps you would not have expected a few years ago. But a five, six year gap is what I expect going forward."

Soderlund's predictions suggest that the life of the new console generation could come to an end years sooner than that of Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Pro and Scorpio were there to extend the generation, something developers want to do as well to maximise what they get out of engines, tools etc.

This would completely bugger all that up, and although Sony would get an advantage it would also piss people off which I don't think they'd be silly enough to do.

And 2018 would mean it wouldn't even be that big a jump, so they'd do all this only to lose it.

 

[herod]

guess what, it's iphone style increments here on in

is anyone surprised

 

[Kageshinzo]

2020 would give the PS4 a shorter lifespan than both the PS2 and PS3. In no way is it too late.

What the hell are you talking about? PS3 was released 6 years after the PS2. The PS3 generation was just an anomaly in that it went way too long by console generation standards. If they release the PS5 in 2019, that would just be around par for the course.

 

[kswiston]

None of Sony's launches have been 5 years apart. Why would they start now when they have a market-leading platform?

I expect another 6 year gap, so 2019. Last gen was longer than typical, with everyone launching about a year later than they probably should have.

 

[KainXVIII]

Scorpio killer? Why not 😄

 

[KingBroly]

Feels like it'd be a big mistake to release a new piece of hardware next year.

 

[Vigilant Gambit]

They just released the PS4 Pro last year. Why the hell would they release a PS5 next year?

 

[OnionPowder]

If they keep the x86 architecture and same OS. Why not, 100% backward compatibility.

So maybe?

That's not really how that works.

 

[DECK'ARD]

This is a panic move from a competitor that's behind, not one that is having showers of champagne with hookers.

 

[PanicFreak]

I'm expecting a PS5 in 2020.

 

[truth411]

PS5 won't happen until:

AMD's 7nm FinFET silicon is in mass production for complex chips. Remember they are skipping 10nm because that's not expected to be a major node. 7nm FinFET is closer to 10nm anyway.

AMD's Navi GPU architecture is due (successor to Vega) is due in 2019 on 7nm, not 2018.

AMD's next, next gen APUs (with Zen2 and Navi GPU) called Gray Hawk isn't due until 2019.

HBM3, which will be cheaper and faster than HBM2, isn't due until 2019 at the soonest (2019-2020).

Sony won't release PS5 until they can have at least 2X the performance of Scorpio at the same price. A 12 TFLOP console isn't happening in 2018. Late 2019 is possible.

Largely correct. But I'm betting AMD will use TSMC 7nm+ which is true 7nm In 2019. Perfect for Sony PS5 in 2020. If PS5 comes out holiday 2021 5nm could be a possibility, have to wait and see.

 

[Jaguar Victory]

It's not going to happen but it would be funny in a way to see Sony lose their minds. The meltdowns..

 

[mcrommert]

Lol with this 2019 nonsense... Why would this gen be shorter than last... They are extended it with half step hardware. Last gen the 360 and PS3 were dx9 machines in a dx11 world when 2011 came around... What would a new console do? Slightly better graphics? Pc is dx12, Scorpio and pro have the dx12 feature set

2020 would be gen length for the PS3... But the gen started in 2005 with Xbox 360. Nothing is cheaper than last gen it will be same length or longer. 2020 as absolute earliest probably 2021

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Lol with this 2019 nonsense... Why would this gen be shorter than last... They are extended it with half step hardware. Last gen the 360 and PS3 were dx9 machines in a dx11 world when 2011 came around... What would a new console do? Slightly better graphics? Pc is dx11, Scorpio and pro have the dx11 feature set

2020 would be gen length for the PS3... But the gen started in 2005 with Xbox 360. Nothing is cheaper than last gen it will be same length or longer. 2020 as absolute earliest probably 2021

That gen lasted way too long, games were stale,people were losing interest in the consoles. Thats why the PS4/XBO did so well even with no real reason to upgrade until 2015.

 

[sloppyjoe_gamer]

As a PS4 Pro owner, i would hate them to launch a PS5 in 2018. I feel the PS4 still has plenty of life and if you get a 4K set and want a 4K HDR boost, get the Pro.

I bet we get a price cut to PS4 Slim to $199 and the PS4 Pro drop to either $350 or $299. Both of those would give the already great and still viable PS4 platform even more sales i feel.

No PS5 until 2020...it feels too early right now

 

[Forsaken82]

Personally I doubt this mainly because it's just dumb business having just launched the Pro less than a year ago. I wouldn't have expected a new Playstation til 2020 at the earliest.

With that being said, if this is true, I am even more glad I never bought into the Pro stop gap and I feel sorry for anyone who got suckered into it... but also thanks for funding further R&D on the proper successor... maybe it was successful enough that Sony decided people wanted the new new.

 

[mcrommert]

That gen lasted way too long, games were stale, being were losing interest in the consoles. Thats why the PS4/XBO did so well even with no real reason to upgrade until 2015.

Sales were still good... I get you want a new console for some reason... But why would developers and by extension sony/microsoft

 

[Azelover]

Waiting for huge technical jump with almost no practical improvement.

 

[kc44135]

No way PS5 launches next year. PS4 is selling ridiculously well and has plenty of momentum thanks to a great lineup of games and the PS4 Pro (which literally just launched like six months ago, people). Also, I really don't they're all that worried about the Scorpio. There's likely going to be a massive price difference between it and the Pro (at least $100+ going off what's in that thing), and games will still look and run good enough on Pro even if Scorpio outclasses in it everyway. Microsoft's lineup of exclusives is definitely lacking right now compared to PS4/Pro as well.

So yeah, no PS5 until 2020, I say. If they actually do expect me to buy a new console every year though, they can fucking forget it. That's not how consoles are supposed to work, and I won't support that.