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[JonnyDBrit]

It's about momentum as well though. You don't get the person enough incentive to buy the new device, they hang on to their PS3 and may or may not stay engaged with the game market. You get them to throw down ~$300 to upgrade to shiny new(er) tech, they are more likely to follow up that purchase with the purchase of software, and stay more engaged as a customer. It's a virtuous cycle to some extent.

This makes me wonder if the sheer length of the last console generation has contributed in making the decline worse than it otherwise might have been, from both a consumer and developer standpoint.

 

[DC1]

Is air done in Canada? Because I have a bud that is always one breath behind the response that I expect.

 

[10k]

They're usually slower to adopt consoles and the big Japanese games haven't hit the ps4 yet. And the NX being a rumoured family of devices could help boost the market as well.

2016 will have NX, FFXV, New Tales game, Persona 5, and other hits this year in Japan. We'll see how the market is after Those release.

 

[Bolivar687]

This makes me wonder if the sheer length of the last console generation has contributed in making the decline worse than it otherwise might have been, from both a consumer and developer standpoint.

I think it has. Pure speculation but it's harder to get someone back on board with something after they've wandered elsewhere. New generations of hardware drive demand and we can see even in the West that the industry suffered for waiting so long.

There are a lot of great Japanese games coming out this year but I'm gonna stay skeptical about it driving demand. I really hope it does, though. There's just something about Japanese game development sensibilities that are perfect for gaming on the TV with a controller. I honestly enjoy most Western games more on PC, so I'm not sure I'd be all that interested in a Sony without that Japanese support.

 

[leroidys]

Wii U is doing better in Japan than in all of Europe and Xbox is gonna Xbox.

The only difference is PS4 is doing above and beyond everywhere but Japan.

And Vita? And 3DS? The devs and pubs? Software sales? Arcades? You're treating everything as a minor, unrelated detail. Hint: there's something broader at play.

The videogame industry is an ecosystem. If Nintendo tanks and takes 50% of the market with them, it's not just "oh well that's cuz Wii U". It's a hit to the entire industry.

 

[Radec]

Japan is irrelevant this gen anyway

 

[FlutterPuffs]

Well Japanese game developers were fucked last gen, so that amounts to why they're having such a bloody slow start for this gen.

It will definitely improve, considerably even. While yes, handheld gaming will and is suffering, the amount of games coming out in 2016 will help increase the amount of console sales exponentially.

Let us thank Unreal Engine and Sony finally deciding to make developing games easier for that.

 

[leroidys]

Well Japanese game developers were fucked last gen, so that amounts to why they're having such a bloody slow start for this gen.

It will definitely improve, considerably even. While yes, handheld gaming will and is suffering, the amount of games coming out in 2016 will help increase the amount of console sales exponentially.

Let us thank Unreal Engine and Sony finally deciding to make developing games easier for that.

Not happening.

 

[FlutterPuffs]

Not happening.

It will. Biggest reason why console sales are doing just ok there at the moment is due to the lack of Japanese games. This won't be the case in 2016.

We can avatar bet or whatever on this if you like. A lot of us are confident of this.

 

[Terareflection]

Japan is irrelevant this gen anyway

Umm, A Japanese game won 2015 GAF GOTY.

 

[leroidys]

It will. Biggest reason why console sales are doing just ok there at the moment is due to the lack of Japanese games. This won't be the case in 2016.

We can avatar bet or whatever on this if you like. A lot of us are confident of this.

It may increase linearly, it's not increasing exponentially

 

[Pif]

Only one way to save Japanese console industry. Some company must bring out the modern day equivalent of:

What was special about it?

 

[Radec]

Umm, A Japanese game won 2015 GAF GOTY.

Japanese Devs can make games fine even without selling it to Japan.

 

[Substandard]

For the niche game developers, I kind of think that with Marvelous / Xseed, Atlus / Sega, and NIS doing more to expand into the PC scene they can probably just keep putting out the same type of stuff and sell roughly the same number of copies by expanding the US audience for their games.

It would be great if the console scene was bigger in Japan, but I'm not sure it means the death of Japanese games.

I'm pumped about Disgaea on the PC.

 

[neurosisxeno]

It may increase linearly, it's not increasing exponentially

Yea it was a hyperbolic use of the word "exponentially" I assume.

I wouldn't be surprised if even with a flurry of jRPG's console sales are still down.

 

[FlutterPuffs]

It may increase linearly, it's not increasing exponentially

Tee hee, ok.

English is not my first language, I concede

 

[AgentChris]

Gotta wait for FFXV, KH3 and Yakuza 6 before we close the book on consoles. Plus the NX could help.

 

[Purple Cheeto]

AAA game development in general is drying up or dying. There's maybe like 4 AAA studios in all of Los Angeles these days when there used to be like 3 times that many.

Right now all the jobs are shifting to mobile and VR. When VR busts I dunno where all those people will go.

 

[entremet]

Tee hee, ok.

English is not my first language, I concede

At least you didn't say logarithmically lol.

 

[inpHilltr8r]

AAA game development in general is drying up or dying. There's maybe like 4 AAA studios in all of Los Angeles these days when there used to be like 3 times that many.

Treyarch, Naughty Dog, Respawn, Infinity Ward, SSM, Insomniac.

Dice LA, although I'm not sure what size they are.

Blizzard, if you're generous with LA.

[edit] In addition to which, many of these studios are 2-3x the size they were a decade ago.

 

[zero shift]

This could have been an issue say ten years ago. However, today it seems that there a plenty of engines and developers that are comfortable with multiple ports.

It is not uncommon to see even niche Japanese games to be on Playstation Vita, Playstation 4, and PC for example. In a dead console future in Japan we will probably see games on iOS, Android, PC, PS4, and NX.

 

[neurosyphilis]

PlayStation always has and always will be a GLOBAL brand. Sony has never relied on one or two markets like Nintendo and MS.

 

[bitbydeath]

it's not just "oh well that's cuz Wii U". It's a hit to the entire industry.

Meanwhile this thread is about "oh well that's cuz Japan". Which isn't true.

Do you really think Wii U, Xbox, 3DS and Vita are doing much better outside of Japan?

If they're failing near everywhere then maybe just maybe the products are just not that attractive enough to sell decently and not because of a shrinking demographic.

 

[leroidys]

Meanwhile this thread is about "oh well that's cuz Japan". Which isn't true.

Do you really think Wii U, Xbox, 3DS and Vita are doing much better outside of Japan?

If they're failing near everywhere then maybe just maybe the products are just not that attractive enough to sell decently and not because of a shrinking demographic.

1) Global trends are crowding out dedicated gaming platforms. These trends are MUCH more pronounced in Japan.

2) You're dancing around numbers this entire thread. Any metric you look at for Japan points to the decline of the dedicated, non-f2p gaming market. These numbers are all MUCH more dire for Japan than the rest of the world.

EDIT: I would normally post examples, but I'm on my phone. Sorry. Feel free to back up your positions with data though.

 

[Jamix012]

Lol, no. PS4 is just starting to get the big sellers, and specially will come during 2016 and 2017. WiiU didn't sell as expected but due to Nintendo's fault. MS never existed there. Digital game sales are rising. Consoles aren't dying.

Say what you want about Worldwide, but the fact that consoles are dying in Japan is pretty well documented and almost unanimously agreed upon. We're talking climate change levels of certainty.

Meanwhile this thread is about "oh well that's cuz Japan". Which isn't true.

Do you really think Wii U, Xbox, 3DS and Vita are doing much better outside of Japan?

If they're failing near everywhere then maybe just maybe the products are just not that attractive enough to sell decently and not because of a shrinking demographic.

If all those consoles are failing and the market remained static, you'd expect the PS4 to absorb at least some of the sales of it's competitors. It's not. The PS4 is almost certainly going to sell less than the PS3 in Japan let alone make up for the decrease in sales of its competitors.

 

[Eusis]

It bears noting that the shrinking dedicated market in Japan comprises not only consoles, but handhelds as well; 3DS and Vita combined will end up selling 40% or so less than their predecessors combined.

Third parties that want to avoid going out of business, or going mobile-only, will increasingly have to look to markets outside Japan. PC support and other Asian territories, among other initiatives, are both significant parts of that.

This is one of my biggest worries. Going to handhelds was OK to me so long as 1. handhelds were also relevant in NA/EU, 2. They reliably had games localized, and 3. if anyone ate their lunch it would ideally be consoles, not mobile. Instead 1 is dropping faster than in Japan it seems (especially in regards to the Vita), 2 is... OK, but that's partially because of 3 most focus going to mobile, only increasing on consoles in case they can sell those versions better outside of Japan.

It's really frustrating for everyone that was into Japanese games since the last century and DOES still want to see more good stuff. Especially as a lot of western development gets consumed by AAA mentalities.

 

[Alvarez]

Is this a console problem, or is it a Japanese problem? Japan's birthrate is abysmal and its population is outgrowing video games. You can't expect sales to remain the same when the entire Japanese population is shrinking, with no end in sight.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Or as a golden age...

It can be both. They aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[TheBryanJZX90]

Is this a console problem, or is it a Japanese problem? Japan's birthrate is abysmal and its population is outgrowing video games. You can't expect sales to remain the same when the entire Japanese population is shrinking, with no end in sight.

I don't think the birth rate alone explains it, although it might be a factor. Anecdotal experience, but kids in Japan seem to have moved on from Nintendo and Playstation to iOS and Android games too.

 

[Xiao Hu]

That is why I'm intrigued which region might emerge next as a game developing country. S. Korea, Taiwan etc have potential but in my experience they lack the daring aspect. Too much of their gameplay is based on grinding and too many games are copies of the competition.

 

[RedSwirl]

The funny thing is, almost all the games making me even slightly interested in getting a PS4 are Japanese games. Really just the ones from the small-to-mid-level developers that haven't started porting their games to PC yet.

 

[RoadHazard]

Japan is already secondary for everyone except maybe Nintendo. Not much would change for PlayStation and Xbox. Maybe fewer small quirky Japanese titles for the former, although I don't know how many of those we're getting now anyway. The few remaining big Japanese devs and pubs would just keep going as usual, as I'm pretty sure their games do better here in the west these days anyway.

It would probably be the final nail in the coffin for dedicated handhelds though.