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August 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

super6646

Banned
Holy shit! I never thought I would get second place! I'm so happy right now! Top 5 in overall 2015 too! Hopefully I remain in the top 5 next month ;) Also, congratulations, 5Twist!


Please don't tell me you're saying what I think you're saying....

No, I'm not saying the XB1 won. I'm just saying that those numbers are within margin of error.
 

donny2112

Member
PS4 is 209k, so 7k difference. Its within margin of error.

Well, it depends. What's the margin of error? NPD tracks over 90% of the retail market, so they probably don't have a lot of statistical error to play around with, at this point. 3% would be 6K, so you're assuming a > 3% margin of error when they track 90% of the market directly?
 

orfax

Member
Oh wow. 3rd! 3rd! And its enough to make me break in the overall chart as well.

I would have been happy just to be in the top 20.

Congrats 5twist.

And thanks to Abdiel, because without his summary I would have put Xbox One first.
 

Javin98

Banned
No, I'm not saying the XB1 won. I'm just saying that those numbers are within margin of error.
I'm gonna quote Vin Diesel here:
"It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile. Winning's winning!"
Who cares if it's within the margin of error? (And frankly, it's not) The PS4 was still ahead in August. Sure, the gap was pretty small and the PS4 should certainly be doing better in the US as a market leader, but what are you trying to prove with your "margin of error" line? Almost sounds like damage control from Microsoft PR to me.
 

Schnauzer

Member
+ Gamescom sales boost
+ Gears
+ Rares Collection
+ Madden Bundle
+ Two killer deals

I really thought Xbox One had this one in the bag.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Good point,

Wii U could actually be really close to PS4 and XB1 sales once you factor in that margin of error.

You can be actually right...
We know XB1 sales are increased by 26% from 160,000, and we have this:

HqXjIRt.png


What if the Grey is XB1? :O

That's should mean:

PS4 = 992k
Wii U = 958k
XBO = 202k

Insane numbers for Wii U and PS4. :p
 
NeoGAF Prediction Results - August 2015

Units

1. 5Twist - 10,500
2. Javin98 - 20,500
3. orfax - 21,500
4. BlackBuzzard - 22,500
5. Darth Smurf X - 23,500
6. Tratorn - 24,635
7. Bruno MB - 25,500
7. yukianderson - 25,500
9. Pillville - 26,500
9. skedar897 - 26,500
11. Sterok - 28,500
12. Possumowner - 29,500
12. RVIDXR - 29,500
12. daniel77733 - 29,500
15. CorporateClown - 30,500
15. slavesnyder - 30,500
15. watdaeff4 - 30,500
18. gtj1092 - 31,500
19. donny2112 - 32,500
20. Maniel - 33,500
20. Zero-Crescent - 33,500
20. xehanort - 33,500
23. archnemesis - 35,500
23. mejin - 35,500
23. prag16 - 35,500
26. Ombala - 36,500
26. Welfare - 36,500
26. jayu26 - 36,500
29. Jamix012 - 38,500
29. TheCarrotKiller - 38,500
31. Rymuth - 39,500
31. super6646 - 39,500
33. doicare - 40,500
34. OleGunner - 41,500
35. Kayant - 42,500
36. GAF_Agg - 42,800
37. RexNovis - 43,500
38. Sangetsu-II - 44,500
38. Toro - 44,500
38. jjonez18 - 44,500
41. Conduit - 45,500
41. ConfusedGamer - 45,500
41. shinra-bansho - 45,500
44. Chobel - 46,500
44. SupperCrunch - 46,500
44. anexanhume - 46,500
44. madp0k - 46,500
48. astrogamer - 47,500
49. Aceofspades - 49,500
49. freefornow - 49,500
51. Final Verdict - 51,500
51. Hammer24 - 51,500
51. Kill3r7 - 51,500
51. ghost4soul - 51,500
51. pitseleh - 51,500
56. 1st Course - 53,500
56. Elios83 - 53,500
56. KillerMan91 - 53,500
59. Megadragon15 - 55,500
59. Randolph Freelander - 55,500
61. Jigorath - 56,500
61. Rand6 - 56,500
61. Ryng_Tolu - 56,500
61. allan-bh - 56,500
61. andy_lhc - 56,500
61. noobie - 56,500
61. rokkerkory - 56,500
61. theprodigy - 56,500
69. MasterSheen - 58,500
69. tearsintherain - 58,500
71. HanzSnubSnub - 59,500
72. ZachzOOming - 60,500
73. Elandyll - 61,500
73. Primethius - 61,500
73. dreamlongdead - 61,500
76. robo - 62,500
76. wachie - 62,500
78. foxbeldin - 63,500
79. Road - 64,500
80. BADMAN - 66,500
81. e-gamer - 68,500
82. ascii42 - 71,500
82. jroc74 - 71,500
84. Prototype Viktor - 74,500
85. bluedawgs - 76,500
86. DrWong - 78,500
87. DryvBy - 85,500
88. DayEnder - 86,500
89. Pachter - 89,500
90. Dedication Through Light - 90,500
91. Bolivar687 - 96,500
92. Fat4all - 98,500
93. Stanng243 - 99,500
94. OfficerRaichu15 - 101,500
95. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 111,500
95. aaronwt - 111,500
97. neogaffer1 - 118,500
98. Polip Fawn - 139,500
99. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 181,500
100. mikey1123 - 197,500
101. twinturbo2 - 206,500
102. Tivor Tontomo - 256,500
103. Grimgrillz - 299,500

Congratulations, 5Twist! :D

Jesus christ! I thought my predictions were reasonable, but I didn't expect them to be that close o_O
 
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