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Avatar’ Starts Production Today; $1 Billion Budget

ahoyle77

Member
If they are terrible movies, what's the floor? I'd say 1.5 billion for the first, and 1 billion for each other one. Maybe 1 billion and 500 million for the other but that seems way too low. Not a big risk for the studio.
 

Veitsev

Member
Avatar made 2B (the other 700 mil or so was the US) just from overseas alone and you got people thinking the sequels might have trouble hitting 1B.

The overseas market has only gotten stronger since then.

Pacific Rim hit 400 million largely because it made 300 mill overseas.

We are talking about a public that loved shows like Two and a Half Men + Big Bang Theory and an overseas market that wets itself for the latest Transformers movie.
 
I wasn't even a huge fan of the first, but it was a spectacle on the big screen. I wish Cameron would move on, but I'm excited all the same.
 

Farsi

Member
Cameron knows how to make his films into events. There's no risk here with these production budgets. The risk comes from the marketing dollars and that's whether or not James wants to get involved with it.
 

Lord Panda

The Sea is Always Right
I'm assuming that filming it all back to back help keeps costs down and he gets more bang per buck.

Not sure about working on all 4 movies SIMULTANEOUSLY is such a good idea though. But if anyone can do it, then I guess it's going to be James Cameron.

It will be interesting to see the personal and professional toll it takes on everyone involved in these movies.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
What sets? lol

Avatar had a lot of sets. A lot of the jungle stuff was filmed in various jungle sets, and most of the human scenes had large sets including fully built mechs.

Jon-Landau-300x200.jpg


article-1229001-073378CF000005DC-574_634x419.jpg
 

firelogic

Member
So in the off chance the first movie of four comes out and bombs, what are they going to do with the other 3 and the money they sunk into it?
 

NCSOFT

Member
Is there a single human being alive that would put Avatar in the same category as any of these movies? Y’know, movies that actually had an impact on pop culture?

LOTR trilogy and original Star Wars aside, I just don't see how the others on that list are so much above Avatar, and I'm a huge Pixar/WDAS fan as well. I'd argue Avatar (the highest grossing film of all time) is at the very least on the original Jurassic park level, and above things like Toy story and Finding Nemo. In terms of box office performances, of that list, only the original Star Wars is in the same league.
 
Avatar had a lot of sets. A lot of the jungle stuff was filmed in various jungle sets, and most of the human scenes had large sets including fully built mechs.

And all the humans of note are Navi now, possibly minus the villain (though there's a good chance he won't be in human form either)

I'd be shocked if we don't see even fewer physical sets than we did in the first one (which itself already comprised a mere fraction of the total runtime). Plus, a lot of those "sets" were still more CG than physical
 

Veitsev

Member
So in the off chance the first movie of four comes out and bombs, what are they going to do with the other 3 and the money they sunk into it?

Its 1B for four films. Its impossible that they don't make it back and then some.

Fate of the Furious, Furious 7, made around 400M each in China alone

Transformers made around that much too.

Warcraft made 200M in China alone.

The Great Wall made around 170M in China alone.
 
Avatar made 2B (the other 700 mil or so was the US) just from overseas alone and you got people thinking the sequels might have trouble hitting 1B.

The overseas market has only gotten stronger since then.

Pacific Rim hit 400 million largely because it made 300 mill overseas.

We are talking about a public that loved shows like Two and a Half Men + Big Bang Theory and an overseas market that wets itself for the latest Transformers movie.

The problem is that Avatar was carried by its visual gimmick, which has since been oversaturated in the market so the big question is whether people will solely watch Avatar for the visuals. Not to mention, competition has increased from 2008 and the advent of social media and increased importance of rotten tomatoes means that bad word is even more of a death knell than it used to be.

Not to mention, even if the overseas market wets itself for transformers, the latest movie made far less than the other iterations (iirc one of the first in a long time to not break 1bil). Which goes to show you that factors can affect a movie's success, even if it seems too big to fail.
 
The problem is that Avatar was carried by its visual gimmick, which has since been oversaturated in the market so the big question is whether people will solely watch Avatar for the visuals. Not to mention, competition has increased from 2008 and the advent of social media and increased importance of rotten tomatoes means that bad word is even more of a death knell than it used to be.

Not to mention, even if the overseas market wets itself for transformers, the latest movie made far less than the other iterations (iirc one of the first in a long time to not break 1bil). Which goes to show you that factors can affect a movie's success, even if it seems too big to fail.

What was the last rotten Cameron film?
 

Veitsev

Member
The problem is that Avatar was carried by its visual gimmick, which has since been oversaturated in the market so the big question is whether people will solely watch Avatar for the visuals. Not to mention, competition has increased from 2008 and the advent of social media and increased importance of rotten tomatoes means that bad word is even more of a death knell than it used to be.

Not to mention, even if the overseas market wets itself for transformers, the latest movie made far less than the other iterations (iirc one of the first in a long time to not break 1bil). Which goes to show you that factors can affect a movie's success, even if it seems too big to fail.

Counterpoint: James Cameron
 

DrLazy

Member
So forgettable it affected you deeply enough to write this nonsense.

In case you actually wanted to know, Cameron has been working with a team of four screenwriters for the last few years on four different scripts for the entire project.

Good. Hopefully they create something interesting and creative. The Last Samurai is a way better version of this formula. See also Dances with Wolves, Pocahontas, and Fern Gully. Avatars character's are simplisti, one-note, and boring. The film itself was so successful because of the 3D (and the higher ticket prices). I know that's why I saw it
 

Not

Banned
The problem is that Avatar was carried by its visual gimmick, which has since been oversaturated in the market so the big question is whether people will solely watch Avatar for the visuals. Not to mention, competition has increased from 2008 and the advent of social media and increased importance of rotten tomatoes means that bad word is even more of a death knell than it used to be.

Not to mention, even if the overseas market wets itself for transformers, the latest movie made far less than the other iterations (iirc one of the first in a long time to not break 1bil). Which goes to show you that factors can affect a movie's success, even if it seems too big to fail.

Word of mouth was the REASON Avatar was successful. It made the same amount of money its first and second weekends. Like it launched twice.
 

NCSOFT

Member
Word of mouth was the REASON Avatar was successful. It made the same amount of money its first and second weekends. Like it launched twice.

Yes, so many people don't realize this and claim that Avatar did well because of hype, but it's actually word of mouth that carried it to top of the world and made it popular in other countries as well. It is kind of hype I guess, but not really pre-release hype.
 
Word of mouth was the REASON Avatar was successful. It made the same amount of money its first and second weekends. Like it launched twice.

You don't get weekend drops like that or grosses that high without word of mouth being strong. I know it was the holiday season, but it took until the fourth weekend to post a double digit drop. It wasn't until its tenth weekend that it dropped more than 30%. That is just ridiculous.
 
is the rumor that Avengers 3 and 4 combined have 1 billion dollar budget, true? that seems like the more crazier number although understandable with how many star they have in it.
 

MattKeil

BIGTIME TV MOGUL #2
Word of mouth was the REASON Avatar was successful. It made the same amount of money its first and second weekends. Like it launched twice.

Word of mouth about the tech and the experience of watching the film in 3D, more specifically. It was a novelty, and used the 3D gimmick better than just about anything before or since. However, while this was the great strength of the first film, it's where the real challenge for the sequels comes in, because people treated Avatar like a theme park ride, something that whooshes by in a thrilling rush and not a story that stayed with them. 3D is not going to pack people in like that anymore, so these movies are going to actually have to be great movies to get repeat business.

Avatar 2 is going to have to be one of the biggest story/character quality leaps in film history to even come within vague striking distance of the first film's success. It seems like a long shot, but of course I know better than to bet against James Cameron at the box office. It'll be interesting, no doubts there.
 
Word of mouth about the tech and the experience of watching the film in 3D, more specifically. It was a novelty, and used the 3D gimmick better than just about anything before or since. However, while this was the great strength of the first film, it's where the real challenge for the sequels comes in, because people treated Avatar like a theme park ride, something that whooshes by in a thrilling rush and not a story that stayed with them. 3D is not going to pack people in like that anymore, so these movies are going to actually have to be great movies to get repeat business.

Avatar 2 is going to have to be one of the biggest story/character quality leaps in film history to even come within vague striking distance of the first film's success. It seems like a long shot, but of course I know better than to bet against James Cameron at the box office. It'll be interesting, no doubts there.

Exactly what I was going to write in response to people who had problems with me bringing up WOM + saturation.

What was the last rotten Cameron film?

Just because it's never happened yet, doesn't mean it can't.
 

Veitsev

Member
Word of mouth about the tech and the experience of watching the film in 3D, more specifically. It was a novelty, and used the 3D gimmick better than just about anything before or since. However, while this was the great strength of the first film, it's where the real challenge for the sequels comes in, because people treated Avatar like a theme park ride, something that whooshes by in a thrilling rush and not a story that stayed with them. 3D is not going to pack people in like that anymore, so these movies are going to actually have to be great movies to get repeat business.

Avatar 2 is going to have to be one of the biggest story/character quality leaps in film history to even come within vague striking distance of the first film's success. It seems like a long shot, but of course I know better than to bet against James Cameron at the box office. It'll be interesting, no doubts there.

People treat the Pirates, Furious, and Transformers films like theme park rides.

I don't see anyone thinking those films have to be great movies to get repeat business and they aren't.
 

jett

D-Member
Is there a single human being alive that would put Avatar in the same category as any of these movies? Y'know, movies that actually had an impact on pop culture?

Like Jurassic World, the sequel to two well-known turds?

And it's not like Avatar changed cinema business as we knew it or anything.
 

Not

Banned
I don't know. I still think Hollywood overestimated the impact of Avatar's 3D in an effort to easily copy its success.

A lot of what impressed people was the depth of the worldbuilding. Sure, the story and characters weren't shit without the groundbreaking technical stuff and budget, but a lot of creativity went into that setting.
 
Just because it's never happened yet, doesn't mean it can't.

I know it can still happen, but Cameron has failed to deliver a rotten film for over 30 years now. Even if the Avatar sequels don't set the box office on fire like his last two films (which coincidentally destroyed tons of records), they will still most likely be critically and financially successful. Just maybe not as successful as his previous attempts, but successes nonetheless.

That is the issue with Cameron now. He has set the bar extremely high, and if he fails to even come near the bar, he will be deemed a failure.

Stephen Lang would've been the perfect Cable.

I still want him as Deathstroke.
 
I'm done betting against Cameron, it's such a bad idea at this point

Titanic should've bombed
Avatar should've bombed
Not falling for it again
 
I'm done betting against Cameron, it's such a bad idea at this point

Titanic should've bombed
Avatar should've bombed

Exactly. I expect him to deliver the goods in his films and the box office grosses. I am just at the point that I don't expect him to top himself in grosses, because that bar is set extremely fucking high. It is unreasonable to expect him to clear that hurdle yet again.

Of course, we said the same thing before Avatar opened.
 

Krev

Unconfirmed Member
I'm done betting against Cameron, it's such a bad idea at this point

Titanic should've bombed
Avatar should've bombed
Not falling for it again
No one is infallible.

I think this project will be his first one to disappoint financially. Will probably still be profitable when all is said and done, but Avatar 2 is going to have to be very convincing to get people to stick around for three more of these. Sequels typically make less with each instalment, and I think the oft repeated idea that the general public doesn't care that much about Avatar is true. Sequels released after a long break need to be for a perennial classic, and Avatar seems like more of a pop-cultural joke at this point.
 
Exactly. I expect him to deliver the goods in his films and the box office grosses. I am just at the point that I don't expect him to top himself in grosses, because that bar is set extremely fucking high. It is unreasonable to expect him to clear that hurdle yet again.

Of course, we said the same thing before Avatar opened.

No one is infallible.

I think this project will be his first one to disappoint financially. Will probably still be profitable when all is said and done, but Avatar 2 is going to have to be very convincing to get people to stick around for three more of these. Sequels typically make less with each instalment, and I think the oft repeated idea that the general public doesn't care that much about Avatar is true. Sequels released after a long break need to be for a perennial classic, and Avatar seems like more of a pop-cultural joke at this point.

Things of note here:

I doubt the sequels will have the absurd legs the first one did, but they will open way higher

Avatar 1 made like 200 mil in China. In 2009.
Jurassic World made about the same. In 2015.

Shit's gonna be POPPIN'
 

TheRed

Member
The new ride in DIsney World had the best visuals I've seen in a ride like that. Excited to see these in theaters just for the spectacle. First movie was worth it just for the IMAX 3D experience.
 

jett

D-Member
Things of note here:

I doubt the sequels will have the absurd legs the first one did, but they will open way higher

Avatar 1 made like 200 mil in China. In 2009.
Jurassic World made about the same. In 2015.

Shit's gonna be POPPIN'

Cameron gonna be made honorary Chinese after Avadeux drops
 
That's pretty crazy to do all of that at the same time. I'm in because it's James Cameron but I don't remember anything about the first movie except Stephen Lang and "unobtanium." Everything else is a blur and I've had zero desire to rewatch it.
 

Krev

Unconfirmed Member
Things of note here:

I doubt the sequels will have the absurd legs the first one did, but they will open way higher

Avatar 1 made like 200 mil in China. In 2009.
Jurassic World made about the same. In 2015.

Shit's gonna be POPPIN'
I think Avatar 2 will be huge, I'm not so convinced about 5.
 

Skel1ingt0n

I can't *believe* these lazy developers keep making file sizes so damn large. Btw, how does technology work?
I'll never understand how people can doubt Cameron at this point. I just don't.
 
The first wasn't great as a film, but it sure was impressive as a spectacle. Not just the 3D (which was fantastic) but the quality of the effects in general and the eye catching originality of the world. I'm hoping for major advancements in visual effects for these sequels given how many years it's been. Oh, and good stories would be nice!

4 sequels seems a bit nutty, but I'm definitely interested in seeing what Cameron can pull off.
 
I'll never understand how people can doubt Cameron at this point. I just don't.
It wouldn't be Cameron film release if people weren't underestimating him. He's literally the last filmmaker who should have to prove himself box-office wise, but he has to every time.

This goes as far back as T2 and True Lies, which were also the most expensive films of all time when they were made.
 
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