• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Bloomberg: Nintendo to announce 18.7 Billion Yen loss for the fiscal year

neogaf also gave the vita and wii u something like 100k+ posts each in speculation threads and post-release hardware threads.

Very true.

I see very little chance that either upcoming console will underperform as badly as Wii U, but I think most GAFers greatly overestimate, for instance, the extent to which improved visuals (as opposed to next-gen-only software) will serve as a sufficiently compelling differentiator in the eyes of the mass market.
 

JordanN

Banned
neogaf also gave the vita and wii u something like 100k+ posts each in speculation threads and post-release hardware threads.
Wii U showed problems that either don't exist or are unlikely to be passed onto PS4/720.

Vita was always a gamble. Sony never won a handheld generation before.

No, it would just mean that the customers wouldn't see a point in new consoles anymore.
Which would be odd since that's where all the future third party games would be going.
 

AniHawk

Member
Wii U showed problems that either don't exist or are unlikely to be passed onto PS4/720.

Vita was always a gamble. Sony never won a handheld generation before.

the point was that neogaf kinda exists in its own bubble. the killzone 2 thread has millions of views off 30,000 posts. you'd think the game would have sold something like 20 million copies with that sort of attention.
 

AniHawk

Member
can someone explain to me, again, the difference between operating, ordinary, and net income, and which one actually matters?

operating income is how much nintendo themselves spent or lost as far as manufacturing goods and such. how do they get a positive net income with a negative operating income?

i used to know this stuff.
 

JordanN

Banned
the point was that neogaf kinda exists in its own bubble. the killzone 2 thread has millions of views off 30,000 posts. you'd think the game would have sold something like 20 million copies with that sort of attention.
I'm relating this to a massive drop off though. Basically, if PS4/720 don't sell, I'd also be expecting Neogaf's activity and gaming as well to be on the decline.

I also don't think Microsoft and Sony are plunging MILLIONS in new consoles if they don't expect people to buy it. Same goes for publishers.
 

Conor 419

Banned
Code:
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Lz9oh4S.png[/IMG]


2000, 2004 & 2006 results do show to some extent that profits are always way lower around the time of a new system release for Nintendo. I don't think it's unreasonable that a struggling economy and hefty R&D thanks to Wii U + 3DS helped contribute to the negatives for 12/13. I do however, think it's wildly unreasonable to suggest the Wii U is dead at this stage.
 

Shikamaru Ninja

任天堂 の 忍者
I think everyone is hanging on to the theoretical "Fall release of 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Retro's Game" to save the Wii U. Problem is that doesn't look like it will be the case at all if you intelligently look at the common development cycle. Instead you will have Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports U, and The Legend of Zelda Wind Waker HD as the flagship Fall titles. Throw in The Wonderful 101 and most likely a surprise old school IP title from an American/Euro developer contracted by Nintendo. And that's a plausible line up for this year.

The likelihood is that Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Mario 3D, and even Retro Studios game may all be 2014. While 2014 looks great then, 2013 may be a disastrous year for the console as well. Look at freakin Pikmin's development time! A game that is nowhere as ambitious as the above.
 
I do however, think it's wildly unreasonable to suggest the Wii U is dead at this stage.

It's certainly not dead yet, but its chances of becoming anything other than a major failure just about are.

I think everyone is hanging on to the theoretical "Fall release of 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Retro's Game" to save the Wii U. Problem is that doesn't look like it will be the case at all if you intelligently look at the common development cycle.

I still think they'll get out at least two of those titles this Q4, even if it means rushing them out with significant content cut a la Wind Waker.
 
I'm relating this to a massive drop off though. Basically, if PS4/720 don't sell, I'd also be expecting Neogaf's activity and gaming as well to be on the decline.

I also don't think Microsoft and Sony are plunging MILLIONS in new consoles if they don't expect people to buy it.
We are gaming fans we would still be here. Discussing the lows and everything.
 

Sadist

Member
I'm relating this to a massive drop off though. Basically, if PS4/720 don't sell, I'd also be expecting Neogaf's activity and gaming as well to be on the decline.
Nah this will always be a enthousiasts messageboard and as long as the games keep coming, people will visit GAF. GAF's popularity isn't dependant on the succes stories of the gaming industry. Well... most of the time.
 

Shiggy

Member
2000, 2004 & 2006 results do show to some extent that profits are always way lower around the time of a new system release for Nintendo. I don't think it's unreasonable that a struggling economy and hefty R&D thanks to Wii U + 3DS helped contribute to the negatives for 12/13. I do however, think it's wildly unreasonable to suggest the Wii U is dead at this stage.

Just a rather technical question I've wondered about before. Shouldn't the research costs be shown in previous years before the Wii U existed as some real concept/prototype that was approved for market introduction?
And to what extent do the development costs play a factor? Do they have a noticeable effect on profit/loss in the year they are incurred? Shouldn't they be depreciated over the lifetime of the Wii U?
 

JordanN

Banned
Nah this will always be a enthousiasts messageboard and as long as the games keep coming, people will visit GAF. GAF's popularity isn't dependant on the succes stories of the gaming industry. Well... most of the time.
Games for what though? The focus is going to be next gen. That's where all the new investments will be happening.

And that's the problem. If these new games cannot be sold, I'm anticipating a decline.

Of course, Neogaf will still be around (I think).
 

royalan

Member
It's been a very shitty year for them for obvious reasons, but I'm not about to call for Iwata's resignation yet.

For all intents and purposes, they've steered that 3DS ship right around and I'd say a sizeable chunk of GAF would agree.

And this is a problem. The things Iwata did to save the 3DS helped in the short term, but long-term it may have actually destroyed consumer confidence.

You can see the effects anywhere Nintendo's being discussed. "Ambassador Program" has become a buzz word. People are actually holding off on buying the Wii U because of the belief that a price drop is imminent, and this is all thanks to what Iwata did with the 3DS.
 
I think everyone is hanging on to the theoretical "Fall release of 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Retro's Game" to save the Wii U. Problem is that doesn't look like it will be the case at all if you intelligently look at the common development cycle. Instead you will have Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports U, and The Legend of Zelda Wind Waker HD as the flagship Fall titles. Throw in The Wonderful 101 and most likely a surprise old school IP title from an American/Euro developer contracted by Nintendo. And that's a plausible line up for this year.

The likelihood is that Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Mario 3D, and even Retro Studios game may all be 2014. While 2014 looks great then, 2013 may be a disastrous year for the console as well. Look at freakin Pikmin's development time! A game that is nowhere as ambitious as the above.

I think alot of people believe that Pikmin has been or could have been done by early this year, but Nintendo have stretched out its development in order to have something to release late summer. Also, isn't Pikmin being done by the same group that make the NSMB games?
 
I think everyone is hanging on to the theoretical "Fall release of 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Retro's Game" to save the Wii U. Problem is that doesn't look like it will be the case at all if you intelligently look at the common development cycle. Instead you will have Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports U, and The Legend of Zelda Wind Waker HD as the flagship Fall titles. Throw in The Wonderful 101 and most likely a surprise old school IP title from an American/Euro developer contracted by Nintendo. And that's a plausible line up for this year.

The likelihood is that Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Mario 3D, and even Retro Studios game may all be 2014. While 2014 looks great then, 2013 may be a disastrous year for the console as well. Look at freakin Pikmin's development time! A game that is nowhere as ambitious as the above.

I maintain you're being ridiculously cynical with this argument. There's little reason why a 3D Mario couldn't be released, although Mario Kart is trickier.

Nintendo have already demonstrated that they have no problem swiftly pooling resources to make a given release date (Retro's contribution to Mario Kart 7 jumps swiftly to mind). I see no reason why they wouldn't do it here.
 
And this is a problem. The things Iwata did to save the 3DS helped in the short term, but long-term it may have actually destroyed consumer confidence.

You can see the effects anywhere Nintendo's being discussed. "Ambassador Program" has become a buzz word. People are actually holding off on buying the Wii U because of the belief that a price drop is imminent, and this is all thanks to what Iwata did with the 3DS.

I like a lot of your posts, but this is silly. Given the software lineup, I think there are much, much, much more compelling reasons why people aren't buying the system.
 

The Boat

Member
I think everyone is hanging on to the theoretical "Fall release of 3D Mario, Mario Kart and Retro's Game" to save the Wii U. Problem is that doesn't look like it will be the case at all if you intelligently look at the common development cycle. Instead you will have Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports U, and The Legend of Zelda Wind Waker HD as the flagship Fall titles. Throw in The Wonderful 101 and most likely a surprise old school IP title from an American/Euro developer contracted by Nintendo. And that's a plausible line up for this year.

The likelihood is that Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Mario 3D, and even Retro Studios game may all be 2014. While 2014 looks great then, 2013 may be a disastrous year for the console as well. Look at freakin Pikmin's development time! A game that is nowhere as ambitious as the above.

I agree with this. I don't think those games are likely to be released this year, at least not all of them, not only due to their dev cycle, but because it would make fall too crowded.

Still, concrete short term announcements are important at this stage of Wii U's life.
 

Brera

Banned
Iwata is clearly out of his depths here.

What exactly is his qualifications for running a multi billion dollar multi national? Kirby?

Iwata has given MS and Sony the best advertising ever. Nintendo are showing the public that the next gen is about to start and letting them both have the entire market to themselves. It's too late now. WiiU is a failure in the public's eye. No amount of Pokemon, Mario and Kirby will save it now. GC all over again...but worse! At least GC had games!
 
Iwata is clearly out of his depths here.

What exactly is his qualifications for running a multi billion dollar multi national? Kirby?

Iwata has given MS and Sony the best advertising ever. Nintendo are showing the public that the next gen is about to start and letting them both have the entire market to themselves. It's too late now. WiiU is a failure in the public's eye. No amount of Pokemon, Mario and Kirby will save it now. GC all over again...but worse! At least GC had games!

Educate yourself by actually reading some of this thread please.
 

Shiggy

Member
Iwata is clearly out of his depths here.

What exactly is his qualifications for running a multi billion dollar multi national? Kirby?

Iwata has given MS and Sony the best advertising ever. Nintendo are showing the public that the next gen is about to start and letting them both have the entire market to themselves. It's too late now. WiiU is a failure in the public's eye. No amount of Pokemon, Mario and Kirby will save it now. GC all over again...but worse! At least GC had games!

In the eyes of the general public it's not a failure. It's simply not existent. There's next to no marketing for the machine. And the little marketing we have is impressively bad.
 

royalan

Member
I like a lot of your posts, but this is silly. Given the software lineup, I think there are much, much, much more compelling reasons why people aren't buying the system.

I agree that the lack of software is first and foremost the reason why hardware isn't moving. But I do think that the side effect of Iwata's 3DS Hail Mary is that now people are more likely to hold back if they smell blood in the water. You see people much less likely to go in early on Nintendo hardware if it looks like they're struggling, because Nintendo has set a precedent of reactionary price drops.

It's why I haven't gotten one yet.
 
It's certainly not dead yet, but its chances of becoming anything other than a major failure just about are.

That's almost saying the exact same thing. At this stage making any long term predictions is completely illogical. The system has had TWO Nintendo games released on it. Anyone who can't see that calling such a system at an early stage a major failure needs to really take a step back and wait
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
can someone explain to me, again, the difference between operating, ordinary, and net income, and which one actually matters?

operating income is how much nintendo themselves spent or lost as far as manufacturing goods and such. how do they get a positive net income with a negative operating income?

i used to know this stuff.

Me too. :(

Iwata is clearly out of his depths here.

What exactly is his qualifications for running a multi billion dollar multi national? Kirby?

Iwata has given MS and Sony the best advertising ever. Nintendo are showing the public that the next gen is about to start and letting them both have the entire market to themselves. It's too late now. WiiU is a failure in the public's eye. No amount of Pokemon, Mario and Kirby will save it now. GC all over again...but worse! At least GC had games!

I always wondered how he got the job from Yamauchi. Only thing I can recall is that they seemed to be pretty tight.
 

Shikamaru Ninja

任天堂 の 忍者
I maintain you're being ridiculously cynical with this argument. There's little reason why a 3D Mario couldn't be released, although Mario Kart is trickier.

Nintendo have already demonstrated that they have no problem swiftly pooling resources to make a given release date (Retro's contribution to Mario Kart 7 jumps swiftly to mind). I see no reason why they wouldn't do it here.

First let me say this. I'm not saying "hey Nintendo sucks haha because they are delaying games". My argument is that the Fall line up might be very different than "oh we're gonna have mario, mario kart and retro games so nintendo is saved". I don't think there is anything wrong with a mystery game like Punch-Out or Wave Race surfacing alongside Wind Waker and some of those launch window games finally trickling in. The bottomline is that we need games, but not in lieu of Mario Kart and Mario 3D and Retro's game not having polish to secure their impact in the HD market.

As far as your Mario comment. We have no idea what EAD Tokyo is planning with Mario. If it is Mario Galaxy 3 HD then you might see it this christmas, if the game is Super Mario Brooklyn or Super Mario "God Knows What", that might need some time.

I think alot of people believe that Pikmin has been or could have been done by early this year, but Nintendo have stretched out its development in order to have something to release late summer. Also, isn't Pikmin being done by the same group that make the NSMB games?

There are multiple projects handled by the groups so they don't necessarily impact each other. Animal Crossing and Nintendo Land come from the same production unit, with unique staff to each project.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Come hell or high water, there will be a Mario out this year, if not both (3D and Kart). Even if its rushed off its balls, you don't sell like the WiiU is, and with PS4 and Xbox720 releasing and not release one of few heavy hitters left available to you. Retro's whatever will most likely be getting a huge front and center showing for release this year due to that probably being the most visually astounding bullet in their chamber to fire back at E3 next-gen mania. That will be their "ah, but WiiU IS next-gen" response and presumably release in September/October to beat the next-boxes.
 
That's almost saying the exact same thing. At this stage making any long term predictions is completely illogical. The system has had TWO Nintendo games released on it. Anyone who can't see that calling such a system at an early stage a major failure needs to really take a step back and wait

It's too early to predict just how much the major first-party releases will boost sales, but not too early to see that the third-party support isn't there. Given that GC had significantly better third-party support on top of what looks to be a similar first-party lineup, I don't think it's premature at all to suggest that N64 numbers now look like a best-case scenario.

I agree that the lack of software is first and foremost the reason why hardware isn't moving. But I do think that the side effect of Iwata's 3DS Hail Mary is that now people are more likely to hold back if they smell blood in the water. You see people much less likely to go in early on Nintendo hardware if it looks like they're struggling, because Nintendo has set a precedent of reactionary price drops.

It's why I haven't gotten one yet.

I'm not disputing that this might apply for you personally, but if you're extrapolating beyond yourself, I think you might be confusing symptom with disease (weak software lineup -> poor hardware sales -> "blood in the water," predictions of imminent price drop).
 
I think alot of people believe that Pikmin has been or could have been done by early this year, but Nintendo have stretched out its development in order to have something to release late summer. Also, isn't Pikmin being done by the same group that make the NSMB games?

Doesn't that sort of hurt the theory that they have some ridiculous barrage of software ready for the end of 2013 then? If they need to work to pad out summer this badly to delay Pikmin into late summer I don't think it's happening.
 
And this is a problem. The things Iwata did to save the 3DS helped in the short term, but long-term it may have actually destroyed consumer confidence.

You can see the effects anywhere Nintendo's being discussed. "Ambassador Program" has become a buzz word. People are actually holding off on buying the Wii U because of the belief that a price drop is imminent, and this is all thanks to what Iwata did with the 3DS.

So, you're saying that Mr. Iwata turning around the 3DS...is a bad thing?
Price drops happen. The Wii was the first console to not drop in price in it's first 2 years basically, and that's because they were still outselling the demand.

I would like to know why Mr. Iwata hasn't made some staff at NOA change positions. I mean, NCL had games like Disaster: Day of Crisis, Pandora's Tower, and The Last Story developed/translated, and NOA was too lazy to even bring them over.

Why should Western developers support Nintendo consoles, when NOA doesn't support them well? What exactly does staff at NOA do, other than decide to NOT support their consoles with games that are 100% developed and translated?

Mr. Iwata gets a pass from me for now, because I'm an American consumer/investor. I don't see NOA holding its water (preferably coffee), compared to the other regions.

If NOA hadn't of fumbled the Wii U's launch with HORRID ads, horrid demo stations, and had actually supported the Wii, then perhaps I would be of a different opinion. Mr. Iwata dropped the price of the 3DS to prepare it for the holiday season, and it is doing well now...and you think some might be holding off for a Wii U price drop? You're probably right, I'm still waiting for the Xbox 360 and PS3 to get to $150 each.

What has NOA done, that can be pointed to as leading by example and as a region the staff their shouldn't be shuffled around? Nintendo TVii?
 
This is an interesting time. I mean, Nintendo has had dips and weaknesses, but will it come out well? Too often when this happens a bunch of beancounters and Gordon Gekko types gets control. For as much shit as Nintendo gets (and a good-sized chunk is actually true), their corporate culture is much more often than not very gamer-focused, in their own wierd way, and I severely hope that they aren't going to be turned into a metrics-chasing, customer-fleecing, LCD-pandering dullness factory like some publishers have been;
and quite frankly, their Panic Mode Nintendo is Best Mode Nintendo has been exceedingly good to me, so I also hope it isn't a damning blow.
 

Woo-Fu

Banned
They only maintained relevance last console gen by introducing a game changer in the form of waggle.

They gambled on two more game changers for both handheld and console this time around and lost.

They either need to go back to doing what they do best, namely making cheap hardware that plays a constantly growing library of nintendo titles or they need to get out of the hardware business.

Kind of mind-boggling that they could continually beat Sony in the handheld space and then decide to be more like Sony with the 3DS. It wasn't broken Nintendo, why did you fix it?
 

donny2112

Member
It reminds me of the 20GB PS3, but in reverse. I feel like those things were like hen's teeth back at launch in November 2006.

And then Sony discontinued the model because they said it wasn't getting much of the monthly sales, so the public obviously didn't want it. :lol
 

Linkified

Member
If that happens, it means video games outside of casual smartphone games and PC games, are dead.

Which would be very unusual since sites like Neogaf are very alive. I also know many people who still play console games in real life.

No it doesn't, if that were to happen the most likely situation wouldn't be console games are dead. It would be the more likely that the outcome would be that most people don't see the point in upgrading to the next system.

This is where MS and Sony need to stop releasing content for the 360 and PS3, and get third parties not to place content on them and focus on the next gen systems - which I don't see happening initially.
 

JordanN

Banned
No it doesn't, if that were to happen the most likely situation wouldn't be console games are dead. It would be the more likely that the outcome would be that most people don't see the point in upgrading to the next system.

This is where MS and Sony need to stop releasing content for the 360 and PS3, and get third parties not to place content on them and focus on the next gen systems - which I don't see happening initially.
It's this part that confuses me. Again, I'm not sure Microsoft and Sony lack the insight to know whether there's a demand for new consoles or not. 8 years is a very long time to decide that.

And I'm sure there's always a point in upgrading since that's where the games will be.
 

Ollie Pooch

In a perfect world, we'd all be homersexual
This is the kicker here. This is why so many people are calling for Iwata to be ousted, despite the fact that he helmed two of Nintendo's most successful products. It's not just that he's made some mistakes; it's that he continues to make the SAME mistake. Repeatedly. This calls his vision into question. Makes you question whether or not he can incite this shake-up Nintendo desperately needs when he can't seem to not make the same mistakes over and over again. The REAL issue is Iwata's perspective.

Maybe the two failed hardware launches would be forgiveable if they were botched for completely different reasons - if both were the result of a wildly different vision and approach just misapplied. But they're not. The 3DS and Wii U both stumbled (or, in the Wii U's case, completely failed out of the gate) because Iwata attempted to hammer the market with the strategy that worked for the Wii and DS, only without ANY thought to how the market might have changed in the time since then. And, worse, when he saw that strategy fail with the 3DS, instead of changing his approach with the Wii U, like he swore to shareholders he would, he tried to hammer the Wii U in the exact same way and it failed in the EXACT. SAME. WAY.

At this point it's clear that Iwata's vision is the problem. And the people expecting him to just wake up one day and drastically change his approach haven't been paying attention. It's not so much the mistakes, but the context and thinking behind them. At this point Iwata has PROVEN that his perspective is just far too rigid for him to be the one the helm the changes Nintendo needs. It's time for new blood.
This is kinda how I feel. Guy has zero forward thinking. The abandonment of the Wii. The ongoing lack of an account system to benefit their customers. The launching of Wii U in an incomplete state with no games, with vague promises of games in 'launch window' which get forgotten. Today's laughably terrible VC 'launch'. Add-on shit like the Circle Pad for the 3DS being released not once but twice - and at cost to the customer rather than being included in the games that required it (on top of a system that isn't cheap to begin with). The disastrous 3DS launch and subsequent Ambassador program. I said in another thread that its like 'Good enough' is all it takes for Nintendo these days. Why aren't they blowing people away?
 
For the 18 weeks this FQ accounts for NTDOY wouldve had to average 55K/week worldwide and still have had to move what was left unsold to consumers of that 3M. Bloomberg analysis said they fell short of 4M by 500K, which i see as being far more plausible, but still not bad.
Oh I didn't realise the analysts also gave a unit projection. That sounds about right. They still haven't really sold through their launch shipment in the US and EU territories, but there'll need to be some re-supply, something like 150K JPN, 150K US, 150K EU wouldn't surprise.
They have also 'shipped' out the ZombiU Deluxe SKU (North America), the Dragon Quest X Deluxe SKU (Japan) and the MH3U Deluxe SKU (Europe) which at least increases the units in the channel by a fair amount.
IIRC from the Media Create threads, the DQX bundle wouldn't have been much more than 20-30K. While, I really can't see US retailers taking on many Zombi U bundles at an even higher price with the system selling as it was.
Iwata's shown that he at least understands the market.
Without agreeing or disagreeing with this statement per se, could you elaborate on how he understands specific markets?
What time is the investor meeting?
Earnings release today, investor meeting tomorrow.
 
This is kinda how I feel. Guy has zero forward thinking. The abandonment of the Wii. The ongoing lack of an account system to benefit their customers. The launching of Wii U in an incomplete state with no games, with vague promises of games in 'launch window' which get forgotten. Today's laughably terrible VC 'launch'. Add-on shit like the Circle Pad for the 3DS being released not once but twice - and at cost to the customer rather than being included in the games that required it (on top of a system that isn't cheap to begin with). The disastrous 3DS launch and subsequent Ambassador program. I said in another thread that its like 'Good enough' is all it takes for Nintendo these days. Why aren't they blowing people away?

sorry but which games required the frankenstick???
 

Celine

Member
can someone explain to me, again, the difference between operating, ordinary, and net income, and which one actually matters?

operating income is how much nintendo themselves spent or lost as far as manufacturing goods and such. how do they get a positive net income with a negative operating income?

i used to know this stuff.
Not an expert but:
operating income is how much a company earns after the expenses.
net income is operating income after being taxed.

As for how can operating income be negative but net income positive it has to do with tax refund I believe.
http://www.accountingtools.com/nol-carryforward
 

Ollie Pooch

In a perfect world, we'd all be homersexual
i play monster hunter on my wii u, the demo on 3ds worked fine without it though

but the option is there anyway so its not really worth complaining about
I disagree. Underwater combat is an absolute shitfight without the CPP.

I'm not complaining it exists, I'm saying that having your guys go back and reverse engineer some hideous plastic add-on to your console(s) just to make a game playable is a result of bad planning. You obviously disagree, that's cool. Either way it doesn't excuse the countless other fuckups under his watch.
 
I disagree. Underwater combat is an absolute shitfight without the CPP.

I'm not complaining it exists, I'm saying that having your guys go back and reverse engineer some hideous plastic add-on to your console(s) just to make a game playable is a result of bad planning. You obviously disagree, that's cool. Either way it doesn't excuse the countless other fuckups under his watch.

i'm not saying dual analogue cant occasionally be a good thing, just its not as big a deal as some make out
 
Top Bottom