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Chinese president Xi Jinping has vowed to lead the “new world order”

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Mumei

Member
China is probably better than a country who's always itching to start bloody armed conflict with nations in all the continents of the world, but maybe that's just me. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

???

China is an illiberal state with the added demerit of having had a long history of supporting other illiberal states (North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Myanmar until recently) that oppress their own people, threaten their neighbors, or seek to destabilize the global order. This is perhaps instructive. It has behaved in increasingly aggressive ways against its regional neighbors (aggressive usage of maritime patrol vessels to enforce similarly aggressive territorial claims; the only country in the region with a military posture focused on the projection of power; the creation of artificial islands to bolster its positions and claims in the region). It is the only country in the region which is concentrating on the ability to project power; even its potential competitors like India or Japan maintain an almost exclusively defensive posture.

China is behaving remarkably aggressively given the constraints of its own military limitations and the presence of the US and its security commitments shaping its security environment for China. And given the region's centuries-long history of hierarchical conceptions of political order (with China at the center), it is perhaps unsurprising to see China continuing to relate to its neighbors on these terms. China repeatedly refuses multilateral negotiations in lieu of bilateral negotiations with smaller countries that feel less able to stand up to Beijing's pressure. It is because of this that countries like Japan and the Philippines have made public calls for U.S. support, hoping that this will deter China from pressing its claims.

It frankly seems to me naive to suggest that a) China would not seek hegemony were the opportunity available (it clearly seeks regional dominance), and b) China would show itself to be more respectful of other countries' interests or sovereignty given the way China treats its own citizens and given its total lack of friends or allies.
 

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
b) China would show itself to be more respectful of other countries' interests or sovereignty given the way China treats its own citizens and given its total lack of friends or allies.

I think this is the biggest take home.

Prior to it, China had about 40-50 years of near disastrous political, economical, and social up heave. Civil war in the 40's, Great leap forward in the 50's/60 followed by the cultural revolution in the 60/70s, with the protests and riots in the 80's. Where they were largely able to land on their feet by creating an unstable environment of growth economy to squash all the desire of "free" rights. This is a country that largely put a band aid on issues... after basically mass murdering, ethic cleansing, mass starvation, violent suppressing, and largely subduing their own people in a box of completely government controlled media. The country would be a massively different place.

What they have going for them is being the most populous country on the world and totalitarian controlled government allowing business to flourish. Countries want to do business with them, but almost all their neighboring countries treat them at arms length and prefer bedding up with the US. The countries that seem more prone to allying with China are those who have had very little interaction with them over the course of history, other totalitarian governments, or ones that just openly dislike the Western Influence on the world.

I mean, if they don't treat their people well and their neighbors don't like them. It should be pretty telling they aren't magically going to turn a new leaf over. They'll just want to be able to apply stronger pressure to get their own way. The removal of the other two major powers in the world would be the quickest way for them to dominate the South Pacific.

On a side note, nor do I get the argument about race being brought into this. One of the reasons why the US actually have a race issue is the fact that they are a diverse country. China is not. China is 92% Han Chinese, majority of the rest are other smaller subsets. The 56 approved by the Chinese Government, basically Chinese who share many of the same traditions, cultures, etc.
 

Mumei

Member
Breh China's been waaaaaaaay ahead of you. They've been doing swaps for many years now. Most countries China has a relationship with don't trade with china in Dollars anymore.

China probably has the most competently run economy bar the US (though the US isn't exactly competently run anymore). It's not the second strongest economy by chance.

I ran across this post while reading through the topic to see what I'd missed, and I have to respond to this:

Wait, what?

The dollar is still the world's currency. In order to replace the dollar, China would need to do a lot of things: It would need to allow money to move freely in and out of the country, opening itself to international capital. This would be a complete reversal of their current course. They would need to create a massive Chinese bond market, one that is liquid and credible with the price of credit set by the market and not simply by government fiat. The Communist Party would be giving up enormous power in the market by taking this step. It would need to at least start floating its currency partially. It would need a more independent legal system that foreigners feel comfortable investing in in case of legal disputes and it would need to have a more transparent decision-making process on economic policy. In short, it would need to give up a lot of control, and the CPC is not exactly known for ceding control.

The dollar as recently as 2012 was involved in 85 percent of global foreign exchange trades; it made up 64.0% of global currency reserves where the numbers are known (and educated guesses put China and Japan's share of their foreign exchange reserves held in dollars at more than 60 percent, too). After making its initial efforts at internationalizing the renminbi in 2013, the renminbi skyrocketed up to... 8th place by 2016—right between the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. And it appears to be backsliding on those efforts.

This is enormously beneficial to the US, of course, and despite worries to the contrary it does not give China any particular leverage over the US. Call it the dollar trap: "We hate you guys. Once you start issuing $1 trillion–$2 trillion, we know the dollar is going to depreciate. so we hate you guys but there is nothing much we can do. Except for U.S. Treasuries, what can you hold? Gold? You do not hold Japanese government bonds or UK bonds. U.S. Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option." We are China's only option in that regard because Japanese-yen and Euro-denominated debt simply has "insufficient depth." And it's not just China who has had this dilemma.
 
I would love to see what the general opinion of the Chinese being world leaders is in different countries around the world. I would bet money that most people who dislike the idea are either from the US or UK. And I would bet a significant portion of the world population wouldnt mind the Chinese being the leaders of the world, if someone must absolutely lead it and call the shots.

Cause the rest of the world isnt exactly enamored with how the US has lead it so far.

threat-world-peace.jpg




Oh and this was Pre Trump under Obama. Its kinda telling when even your allies think you are a threat to the peace of the world.

This post plus the Dan Carlin avatar made me spit out my drink. It's just too perfect.
 

rpmurphy

Member
???

China is an illiberal state with the added demerit of having had a long history of supporting other illiberal states (North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Myanmar until recently) that oppress their own people, threaten their neighbors, or seek to destabilize the global order. This is perhaps instructive. It has behaved in increasingly aggressive ways against its regional neighbors (aggressive usage of maritime patrol vessels to enforce similarly aggressive territorial claims; the only country in the region with a military posture focused on the projection of power; the creation of artificial islands to bolster its positions and claims in the region). It is the only country in the region which is concentrating on the ability to project power; even its potential competitors like India or Japan maintain an almost exclusively defensive posture.

China is behaving remarkably aggressively given the constraints of its own military limitations and the presence of the US and its security commitments shaping its security environment for China. And given the region's centuries-long history of hierarchical conceptions of political order (with China at the center), it is perhaps unsurprising to see China continuing to relate to its neighbors on these terms. China repeatedly refuses multilateral negotiations in lieu of bilateral negotiations with smaller countries that feel less able to stand up to Beijing's pressure. It is because of this that countries like Japan and the Philippines have made public calls for U.S. support, hoping that this will deter China from pressing its claims.

It frankly seems to me naive to suggest that a) China would not seek hegemony were the opportunity available (it clearly seeks regional dominance), and b) China would show itself to be more respectful of other countries' interests or sovereignty given the way China treats its own citizens and given its total lack of friends or allies.
I don't disagree with those things. Going back, the region had long been operating in an environment where the US and other Western nations had been directly meddling in its political and social upheavals of the 20th century, protecting their own influence and economic interests by exerting military presence and actively operating efforts to subvert non-friendly regimes, for which China is no stranger to being the target of such activity. Certainly, in that context, there is absolutely a strong motivation for the country to change their fortune to be able to again exert a hegemony unopposed in its region, whilst believing itself to be the benevolent power as the basis. The US has been the sole opposing force to block those aims, and so its support of illiberal states, amongst other nations unfriendly to the US, has largely been for the purpose of antagonizing and to wear out American dominance. Even then, it's still a risk-reward calculation, and China isn't against distancing itself from eccentric regimes such as NK as they become more volatile and a liability to their efforts. Would those kinds of extreme alignment necessarily continue in a situation where the US no longer has global leadership? I don't think you can say for sure. I would far more expect China to forge normal types of relations with the purpose, rather, of serving their economic interests, much like the US has always done, and this will naturally continue to include nations that are illiberal and/or destabilizing, also like what the US has done. But, I also still expect less of the sending troops and bombers halfway around the world as China doesn't have that luxury (nor culture, traditionally, but that may have changed)... which you could argue that is a bad thing for global stability, but I have no love for that.

Is a deeply-flawed global American hegemony worth protecting to prevent a fragmented power structure for countries such as China from developing regional hegemony? I don't know.
 

Metrotab

Banned
Pretty funny seeing people on NeoGAF support an authoritarian state with a controlled press and numerous violations of even the most fundamental human rights, just so they can make edgy anti-Trump/anti-Western posts.
 

Renekton

Member
China is an illiberal state with the added demerit of having had a long history of supporting other illiberal states (North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Myanmar until recently) that oppress their own people, threaten their neighbors, or seek to destabilize the global order. This is perhaps instructive.
Sorry for whataboutism but isn't this what some countries (e.g USA with Saudi Arabia) do for geopolitical self-interest?

It frankly seems to me naive to suggest that a) China would not seek hegemony were the opportunity available (it clearly seeks regional dominance), and b) China would show itself to be more respectful of other countries' interests or sovereignty given the way China treats its own citizens and given its total lack of friends or allies.
Sovereignty? Doesn't China meddle less with the leaderships of countries? For example our country Malaysia, China simply bribed our leaders with their business and investments in hope we take their side in territory dispute.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe

I agree with Japan on China. They're right, China is definitely the biggest threat and bully in Asia and probably the world.

Pretty funny seeing people on NeoGAF support an authoritarian state with a controlled press and numerous violations of even the most fundamental human rights, just so they can make edgy anti-Trump/anti-Western posts.

Agreed, it's disturbing and a sign of ignorance.
 

pigeon

Banned
Sorry for whataboutism but isn't this what some countries (e.g USA with Saudi Arabia) do for geopolitical self-interest?

Frankly, supporting a dictator for self-interest is bad and we should stop, but supporting a dictator because you want democracy to go away and be replaced by dictatorships everywhere strikes me as clearly worse

Sovereignty? Doesn't China meddle less with the leaderships of countries? For example our country Malaysia, China simply bribed our leaders with their business and investments in hope we take their side in territory dispute.

It is utterly baffling to me that you say "well all China did was bribe our corrupt government leaders" like that's so much better
 

Chichikov

Member
Frankly, supporting a dictator for self-interest is bad and we should stop, but supporting a dictator because you want democracy to go away and be replaced by dictatorships everywhere strikes me as clearly worse
I don't think China wants democracies to go away. For better or worse, China don't really give a fuck about how countries run their internal affairs.
Insofar as they do meddle with other countries (and I think it's far less than any other superpower) it's about their foreign policy as it pertains to Chinese economic interests.

Sovereignty? Doesn't China meddle less with the leaderships of countries? For example our country Malaysia, China simply bribed our leaders with their business and investments in hope we take their side in territory dispute.
Those statements are not contradictory to each other.
China do meddle less with other countries internal affairs than other superpowers, but that doesn't mean they don't meddle at all (and by the way, it doesn't even mean that this is a good policy. sometime meddling is required, but that's a different discussion).
 

Mumei

Member
Is a deeply-flawed global American hegemony worth protecting to prevent a fragmented power structure for countries such as China from developing regional hegemony? I don't know.

I think that you'll find my inclination on that from the post I made before that!

Sorry for whataboutism but isn't this what some countries (e.g USA with Saudi Arabia) do for geopolitical self-interest?

I forgive you.

But seriously, yes. It is true that the US also props up authoritarian states. I think the difference is that the US does so in the pursuit of other ends (e.g. regional stability, American economic interests, support for American foreign policy, etc.) and is not committed to promoting authoritarian rule; with China the authoritarianism and regional destabilization seems to be precisely the point of its support. It doesn't make the US' support morally defensible; I'm not arguing that.

Sovereignty? Doesn't China meddle less with the leaderships of countries? For example our country Malaysia, China simply bribed our leaders with their business and investments in hope we take their side in territory dispute.

I want to preface all this by saying that "meddling" isn't really the bar I was setting for not respecting sovereignty. I think that your example qualifies as meddling, too! But let's just go with it, anyway.

I do not think the question is, "Doesn't China meddle less with the leadership of countries?"; I think the question is, "If China was hegemonic in its own region or globally, would it meddle less with the leadership of other countries?" The US does not meddle simply because it enjoys being meddlesome; it meddles because it perceives that its interests are being threatened. For instance, and speaking of Malaysia, President Mahathir Mohammed initiated the East Asian Economic Caucus (or Group) in 1990. This proposal made the US uncomfortable:

American officials not only saw the EAEC as a threat to American access to these markets but also felt that its success would undermine the prospects for the completion of the Uruguay Round of global trade negotiations. As Poddar ("The Price of Fear," p. 123) recounts, over the years when the EAEC was actively being considered, various American diplomats were sent to Asia to undermine the proposal, and they directly employed US security leverage as part of their effort to do so. Most notable in this regard is when Secretary of State James Baker underscored in a 1991 meeting with South Korea that "Malaysia didn't spill blood for this country, but we did." A participant in the meeting recounts that after hearing this reproach, the South Korean minister told Baker that his government would agree to US demands and oppose the EAEG. Japan also came to strongly opposed the EAEG in response to continued US diplomatic pressure, which included a public warning from then assistant secretary of defense Joseph Nye that if the EAEG were adopted, "we would probably withdraw our security presence." Opposition from Japan and South Korea greatly undermined the EAEC, and the proposal ultimately fell by the wayside in the mid-1990s.

Was this meddlesome? Absolutely.

I think that similarly, China's rhetoric of noninterventionism and absolute sovereign rights to the side, it will find itself increasingly meddlesome because its interests will demand it. For instance, China became involved in the politics of the partition between Sudan and South Sudan because they were so deeply involved in oil production; it was simply unavoidable for them. I think this passage is rather apropos:

Yet in between the bitter standoffs over Syria, the UN vote on Sudan was compelling evidence that the historical forces are also pulling China in a different direction from the one Ignatieff imagines, one in which it has little choice but to immerse itself in the messiness, the compromises, and, most of all, the meddling that conflict resolution demands. The dispute between Khartoum and Juba is far from resolved, but in the breakup of Sudan, China has found itself the indispensable outside power in a country whose politics it barely understood but could not escape.

In the case of Sudan, China was forced by its own interests to end up on the same side as the United States, despite its usual defensive pose that internal affairs are the business of that country only. Whatever China's rhetoric, it will "find itself compelled to get its hands dirty on a more regular basis, to play the local power broker, to pick sides, maybe even to send in its military for more than just peacekeeping operations."

I think it is illustrative to consider also how China began behaving when it believed that the US had entered a terminal decline:

As it happens, China’s recent conduct has been far from affable with a number of countries, and with some has even been threatening in some degree. In a process disregarded at the time but quite evident in retrospect, the 2008 financial crisis, the seeming downfall of the “Washington consensus” and the seeming vindication of the “Beijing consensus” greatly emboldened the Chinese ruling elite, inducing a veritable behavioral shift that became manifest in 2009-2010. There was a sudden change in the tone and content of Chinese declarations, which became sharply assertive on many different issues, from monetary policy to the relevance of Western democracy. More strikingly, mostly dormant territorial disputes were loudly revived with India, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam - and all more or less at the same time, amplifying the effect. Actual incidents duly followed with the vessels or island outposts of Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with successive episodes that have continued until the present writing.

China has already demonstrated a willingness to engage in economic blackmail and bullying during disputes when it does not have have hegemony in its region. This is the period when Yang Jiechi made that revealing outburst, "China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact." It was also after this meeting that Yang put out a statement that US involvement in the issue (involvement invited by other countries) was simply the US and other countries ganging up on China; Yang also argued that China did not want to internationalize the issue and insisted on resolving all disputes bilaterally. This insistence is a way for China to attempt to pressure smaller states into coming to heel:

For the smaller countries, Beijing's insistence on bilateral negotiations feels like a form of bullying. "China's attitude," says a senior politician from one Southeast Asian nation," is 'It does not matter what the precise nature of our ultimate claim is; if we say it is our, then that means it is ours.'"

I think it's worth repeating that China is an illiberal authoritarian country and that illiberal authoritarian countries tend to have a very poor track record of playing well with others. Somehow, they seem to behave similarly abroad as they do domestically. I think all indications are that, if the US behaves as both a benevolent and a predatory hegemonic power simultaneously, China has given ample notice that it would behave as a predatory hegemonic power. There is little indication that it would be willing to balance that impulse (which the US itself indulges from on occasion to gain specific benefits) with shouldering the responsibility of maintaining a broader system that benefits others, as well. I think it seems more likely that China will drive other countries to balance against it through predatory behavior—which is, as it happens, exactly what China caused post-2010.
 

akira28

Member
funny how that New World Order phrase is making another grand tour. Xi, Bannon, others referencing it.

I just hope that rap music can go back to combating the NWO
 

krrrt

Member
I agree, the western domination of the world is ending and china is probably the only country with enough social cohesion (if that is the right term) to actually have any chance of gaining enough traction for any kind of 'new world order'


Also I like cup noodles.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Fuck it. You know what? I don't even care anymore. Do whatever, China. The US had its chance to lead the world into the 2020's and beyond, but we elected a racist orange instead. Go for broke.


I should learn mandarin.
 
Pretty funny seeing people on NeoGAF support an authoritarian state with a controlled press and numerous violations of even the most fundamental human rights, just so they can make edgy anti-Trump/anti-Western posts.
This is how I feel. Opposing a wrong doesn't automatically make you right. China is HORRENDOUSLY worse for human rights than the US, CURRENTLY. If that changes, so be it, I can change my opinion. But damn, GAF.
 

Ratrat

Member
I agree, the western domination of the world is ending and china is probably the only country with enough social cohesion (if that is the right term) to actually have any chance of gaining enough traction for any kind of 'new world order'


Also I like cup noodles.
Cup noodles suck though. Especially Chinese ones.
 
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