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[Nirolak]

Looking at the upcoming release schedule, this probably shouldn't be shocking.

At E3 and later this year, however, we’ll see plenty more games built on Epic’s Unreal Engine 4, says Sweeney. “There’s a lot [of games] on the way and a large number of them haven’t been announced,” he tells us. “You’ll see lots of triple-A stuff coming out over time. The industry’s changing – this generation it seems like there are about a third of the number of triple-A titles in development across the industry as there was last time around – and each one seems to have about three times the budget of the previous generation. I think we’re heading towards a future where triple-A is the minority.”

“It’s meant to be as accessible to indies as a subscription to an MMO,” said Sweeney, a strong believer in the indie scene. “As these triple-A games are seeing fewer releases then the empty spaces in between are being filled by indie projects of all scales,” he adds. “They’re really being developed in a completely new way – rather than being built over a very long period of time and then released with a massive marketing campaign, you’re seeing a Kickstarter and then preview versions becoming available that are incrementally improved over time. It’s a really interesting time for the industry.”

Source: http://www.edge-online.com/features...real-engine-looks-to-define-a-new-generation/

 

[DragonKnight]

Looking at the upcoming release schedule, this probably shouldn't be shocking.


Source: http://www.edge-online.com/features...real-engine-looks-to-define-a-new-generation/

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

 

[StevieP]

AAA will be in the minority? Compared to indie titles it already is lol. But that's what happens in an industry that's in contraction.

Edit: to the above poster... No mid tier is not making a return as far as anyone can tell. Indie and f2p is what's gaining traction because you can sell those outside of the console market as well

 

[AHA-Lambda]

And most of them look really uninteresting so far. This is just sad

Reminds me of early Hollywood:

"our films aren't making money, what do we do?"
"up the budget, that'll fix it!"

 

[Nzyme32]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

I don't think that is a bad thing at all. It will be interesting to see how the next few years pan out

 

[Lowmelody]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

Completely agreed.

 

[Dinjooh]

I for one am okay with our new Indie overlords.

 

[Nirolak]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

I'm not quite following.

 

[kazebyaka]

I don't like it. Well, at least there's more AC games.

 

[Jigolo]

I'm not complaining at all. Devs will keep their jobs for longer this way.

The engines now a days make every game look AAA anyways. Just look at that shooter Nilo(?) built on UE4

 

[BlazingDarkness]

This is so depressing.

 

[Y2Kev]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

....what

I have to admit this is why I am relishing the indie games hater patrol. They are going to be so miserable this gen.

edit: Oh I think I see. You are saying you think the midtier will be more populous instead of AAA. I think it is more likely AAA is just depopulated and indies fill in the rest and no one makes anything else due to the costs and risk.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

I don't get it.

 

[StevieP]

I'm not quite following.

People are pining for the mid tier titles to return. Unfortunately that isn't what's happening for the most part, outside of a few examples of such games. Indie/f2p is where the market is going because an indie title can also usually be ported to mobile (or starts it's life there)

 

[Nirolak]

People are pining for the mid tier titles to return. Unfortunately that isn't what's happening for the most part, outside of a few examples of such games. Indie/f2p is where the market is going because an indie title can also be ported to mobile

Ah I see.

I updated the OP to add in what he meant on that front. Thanks.

 

[ShinMaruku]

This is so depressing.

Could anybody reaosnably play all the games that come out in a year? I always been saying they been pushing out too much big games a year. But these guys are confused and since the consumer is low information we shall 'suffer' until a balance is found.

 

[Yagharek]

I remember when people told me budgets wouldn't inflate this time. Good times.

I thought those claims were fanciful, but I'm not sure how common they were.

 

[Gurish]

That sounds like a recipe for disaster, now every failure will count even more, and the size of the market will only shrink with such mentality.

 

[gngf123]

I'm not quite following.

"triple-A is the minority."

I think we will just get less games from larger publishers, not a move back to how it used to be. Indie developers can fill the gap somewhat and there will always be the odd project from Ubisoft and the like.

 

[Atomski]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

Yeah dont think thats what is happening at all...

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

The only problem is that most of the studios that made those mid-tier games during that era are dead now.

also F2P is more likely to replace the loss of AAA games

 

[ShockingAlberto]

If this means we are heading back to the gc/ps2/xbos era then yes please.

You've made a fantastic leap of logic.

Fewer AAA games does not mean mid-tier games are replacing them. It just means fewer AAA games.

 

[Hex]

I think the term AAA was a crutch and thrown around too loosely anyway.
Companies took it for granted and banked on budget and name and stopped focusing on the game experience and quality.
AAA Gaming has become Michael Bay bullshit and many devs have snuck in and proven that it can be done better without falling into that trap.

 

[DragonKnight]

AAA will be in the minority? Compared to indie titles it already is lol. But that's what happens in an industry that's in contraction.

Edit: to the above poster... No mid tier is not making a return as far as anyone can tell. Indie and f2p is what's gaining traction because you can sell those outside of the console market as well

But one second thought if there are less games flooding the market maybe each title can get better market penetration resulting in better overall sales.

 

[Plinko]

I thought those claims were fanciful, but I'm not sure how common they were.

We had threads full of people adamantly arguing that budgets wouldn't rise much. I would say the majority on GAF argued that.

 

[Nirolak]

I remember when people told me budgets wouldn't inflate this time. Good times.

I thought those claims were fanciful, but I'm not sure how common they were.

It kind of depends what games we're talking about right?

A $20 million Uncharted 2 turning into a $60 million Uncharted 4 isn't unbelievable.

A $265 million GTA V turning into a $795 million GTA VI on the other hand is waaaaaaay less likely.

 

[biggersmaller]

I'm really excited for innovative projects with smaller budgets to enjoy more of the spotlight - but am very concerned about developers/publishers exasperating the "3.4 million TR copies sold in 4 weeks is a failure" scenario. There will be blood.

 

[monome]

I remember when people told me budgets wouldn't inflate this time.

AAA games this gen want to accomplish things that until now were reserved to MMOs.
AAA games this gen want to accomplish things that until now were reserved to tent-pole movies.

Some games have become IPs, then some IPs have become pillars.
That's the major reason behind the rising costs.

 

[blastprocessor]

I would like to see more indies doing 2.5d games. I'm waiting for my R-Type/Project X fix.

 

[Turrican3]

I think it is more likely AAA is just depopulated and indies fill in the rest and no one makes anything else due to the costs and risk.

I think this is what's going to happen.

And it is quite worrying, or saddening. Or both. :-\

 

[Z3M0G]

I'm OK with this.

Less $60 games.

More $10-$20 indie games.

 

[Meia]

....what

I have to admit this is why I am relishing the indie games hater patrol. They are going to be so miserable this gen.

edit: Oh I think I see. You are saying you think the midtier will be more populous instead of AAA. I think it is more likely AAA is just depopulated and indies fill in the rest and no one makes anything else due to the costs and risk.

Yep, as Sterling says the market thanks to the publishers is filled with companies who would rather make no money than some money if they can't have ALL the money.


I think we're looking forward to a few years where indies are going to soak up all the actual gamer money before devs wake the hell up about this. I'd say this is where Japanese game makers could be smart and soak this up too, but we'll see. At least companies like Atlus seem to think so.

 

[Nirolak]

But one second thought if there are less games flooding the market maybe each title can get better market penetration resulting in better overall sales.

As a whole individual retail titles have been selling more on average every year.

The only reason retail sales have went down is that the number of titles is declining faster on than the revenue growth is climbing on individual games.

That said, indie games are a bit larger in scope than they used to be, but you're not likely to see something like Ninja Gaiden Black or Metroid Prime as an indie title especially soon.

 

[Kyou]

So it's going to be even more boom or bust? Yeesh, I'll get the shovels ready.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

I'm not complaining at all. Devs will keep their jobs for longer this way.

The engines now a days make every game look AAA anyways. Just look at that shooter Nilo(?) built on UE4

What makes you think that? 3 times the budget means 3 times the risk of investment, if the game doesn't sell then people lose their jobs. Which means less risks being taken. So we'll see a handful of AAA titles per year that will probably follow the same formula, with most creative pursuits being in the indie field. There will be no middle ground, it will be very fragmented with the two spheres of development.

 

[hamchan]

Sounds like companies are depending more on one game/series to bring them success, instead of spreading it around and having a diverse library. Definitely more risky I'd say, though if they're confident these AAA franchises will never lose popularity then it's ok I guess.

If they do lose their huge sales and they don't have another big franchise to take over then they'll be in trouble.

 

[monome]

I'm OK with this.

Less $60 games.

More $10-$20 indie games.

lol. I'd welcome >100$ SP games.

 

[ShinMaruku]

I'm OK with this.

Less $60 games.

More $10-$20 indie games.

Never works out like that.

 

[Nirolak]

Sounds like companies are depending more on one game/series to bring them success, instead of spreading it around and having a diverse library. Definitely more risky I'd say, though if they're confident these AAA franchises will never lose popularity then it's ok I guess.

If they do lose their huge sales and they don't have another big franchise to take over then they'll be in trouble.

A good example of this is EA, who at the start of last gen released 86 retail titles in a single fiscal year, whereas in the fiscal year that just ended, they only released 11.

Now, they do have some mobile and digital output that they didn't at the same time here, but the decline in retail titles is stark.

 

[SuperSonic1305]

Good. Now all the people constantly complaining about indies will be quitting gaming soon and we don't have to hear their bitching.

 

[Nightengale]

That said, indie games are a bit larger in scope than they used to be, but you're not likely to see something like Ninja Gaiden Black or Metroid Prime as an indie title especially soon.

How long though?

I'm still waiting for the technological breakthrough in game engine and asset creation that can allow in-game assets to be build in 1/10th the time and resources needed for today's AAA games.

 

[Yaoibot]

Fantastic. The crash must happen so that mid-tier, and self-published games can rise from the ashes. Survival of the fittest. And if you can't make a profitable game on a $50m, you're certainly not geared, or using resources adequately enough to survive.

 

[Magic Mushroom]

Good. Now all the people constantly complaining about indies will be quitting gaming soon and we don't have to hear their bitching.

That would be a blessing.

 

[demosthenes]

Can someone with a technical background explain why budgets are going to be 3x PS3/360 gen? There isn't as large as a jump in my eyes from the PS2/Xbox -> PS3/360 as there is this gen. The systems are supposed to be more in line with PCs. What's driving the large budget increases?

 

[Yaoibot]

Never works out like that.

Why? Steam (which has its own host of issues, granted, but price isn't commonly one) succeeds through its excellent, price-conscious market.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

in 2012, Sweeney said that budgets would double, now its triple. Damn son

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-13-epic-expects-next-gen-game-costs-to-double

 

[Nirolak]

How long though?

I'm still waiting for the technological breakthrough in game engine and asset creation that can allow in-game assets to be build in 1/10th the time and resources needed for today's AAA games.

Well, Unity 5 and Unreal Engine 4 are pretty efficient.

Gameloft, who seems to operate within the scope of a larger indie developer on individual games, does mill out open world action adventure mobile games pretty quickly that are easily PS2 quality or higher in terms of assets.

The main concern would be gameplay quality, but that's somewhat of a separate issue.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Was pretty obvious even last year.

Computer gamers are used to unpolished, buggy releases and have access to insanely low sale pricing, so indies have a shot there...but on consoles, with an audience so spoiled by the production values and refinement of AAA games, indies might have a hard time finding meaningful success there especially when the level of marketing and discoverability will be much lower for them unless platform holders get more deeply involved in their curation.

 

[metalslimer]

Well I guess people who are expecting huge numbers of games to be announced are probably going to be disappointed when it's the usual fare.

 

[Nirolak]

in 2012, Sweeney said that budgets would double, now its triple. Damn son

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-13-epic-expects-next-gen-game-costs-to-double

I think he underestimated the amount of polarization, which is part of why they just went and did the engine licensing model switch they did.

A lot of the remaining AAA games use highly specialized engines to fit their needs since the scope and scale is so large and they usually don't do bog-standard things like we saw with the sea of third person cover shooters last gen.