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Gafia 3 [Mafia] | Welcome to Lynchwood Acres

W

WhereAreMahDragonz

Banned
Kyanrute said:
The dragonz post.

During day two she initially backs her day one read of Bronx - town. It is after Bronx hints at his protective abilities when her stance changes. The protection seems like a lie to her and in a later post she clarifies her stance: Bronx is anti-town because his claim is nuts. 30 posts later she then votes for CCS, explaining that she is willing to give Bronx a day. Issue one: the sudden change from Bronx is anti-town to I'll give Bronx a chance. It does not feel natural nor does she really explain this change in her stance, apart from her comment that she is more confident in a CCS lynch and that is about CCS, not Bronx. To her defense CCS does not come out of nowhere, she has mentioned him as her scum read before. Issue two: she never explains what we'd gain from giving Bronx a day. This was something I speculated about during d2, it was possible but by no means certain that the additional day would prove something about Bronx. The details are shallow what to me makes the changes in opinion seem sudden and slightly out of place.

During day three dragonz gives a read list, mentions Verelios as one of her scum reads and adds that she could see a scenario where scum focused on Crab during day two to save Verelios. This speculated scenario is unrealistic as the Verelios train on day two started ~150 posts later than the final (non-tie preventing, non-Splinter) vote on Crab had landed. When Crab was focused, there was no Verelios train. This to me looks like scum looking at the votes on a surface level and conjuring up an argument from that, without paying attention to the details. Again to her defense she had read Vere as scum before.

She barely reacts to Blarg's flip. Ehh, could be either way but a total non-reaction is still strangely reserved.

When Splinter claims the international man of mystery, dragonz does a 180 with her read of him. In general she seems to accept non-Bronx claims easily, trusting both Swamped's commuter claim and Sorian's messenger claim. I'd like to hear dragonz, how has your read on Swamped processed? What do you think about her claim now?

Oh and the scum scum buddying up via mutual suspicion what I felt when I read CCS, I don't see it as strongly with dragonz. She has been suspecting CCS for a while but I feel she does not keep on reminding everyone about it with similar frequency as CCS does.
Click to expand...

My read hasn't changed much on her, I don't necessarily see the arguments against her as anything more than petty mud slinging and hypothetical scenarios so I won't be voting for her.
 
W

WhereAreMahDragonz

Banned
Sorry been busy, don't know if I'll be around for day end.

Just in case,

vote: CCS

Still a huge blind spot for me. I don't know why he's been focusing me the entire game and I feel like his flip will shed light on a lot of things. Namely, his push for my lynch and his lack of engagement as a whole when it comes to reading people.
 
S

StanleyPalmtree

Banned
Hah. Burb, being in the position you were in. That it an amazingly lucky power to have. Not that im complaining, you were easily my biggest question mark.

I dont think kawl is scum. Or at least his abscences dont attest to it for me. I dont think scum kawl is the type to be complacent with an opportunity to sit on the sidelines. Hes to much of a fighter.

Swampeds recent kerfuffles make me rather sure that shes scum. Particularly scum that is starting to slip up in the face of a finish line that is ever so close.

Also lol at her 'no one is going after stan' like no shit. You gave a single halfhearted point against me that even if it was true would only attest to me being lazy.
 
O

Ourobolus

Banned
theworthyedge (4)
kawl_usc 3388
flatearthpandas 3406
gorlak 3424
franconp 3492

franconp (2)
theworthyedge 3333
faddy 3412

burbeting (1)
theworthyedge 3257 (3313)
stanleypalmtree 3263
franconp 3398 (3492)

swamped (1)
faddy 3292 (3329)
theworthyedge 3313 (3333)
*splinter 3397

kawl_usc (1)
swamped 3447

ccs (1)
wherearemahdragonz 3503

wherearemahdragonz (0)
gorlak 3317 (3386)
swamped 3435 (3447)

kyanrute (0)
gorlak 3386 (3424)

stanleypalmtree (0)
swamped 3390 (3435)

Day 5 Ends:
red_1490043600.png


Majority is 7.
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Aww I thought you were building up to a switcher claim :(

@Kawl, a godfather is also possible I guess, although I'm not going to entertain the possibility when we have so little to go on.
 
B

Burbeting

Banned
So what do we know about the lynches?

Day 1 the vote leaders were:
Squidyj (Town) - 7
Crab (Town) - 4
Swamped (???) - 3
Others had 2 or less.

Day 2:
Crab (Town) - 11
Verelios (Town) - 6
Others had 2 or less

Day 3:
Verelios (Town) - 9
Acohrs (Town) - 6
Others had 2 or less

Day 4:
Acohrs (Town) - 8
Sorian (Town) - 5
Others had 2 or less.

Notice a pattern?
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Burbeting said:
So what do we know about the lynches?

Day 1 the vote leaders were:
Squidyj (Town) - 7
Crab (Town) - 4
Swamped (???) - 3
Others had 2 or less.

Day 2:
Crab (Town) - 11
Verelios (Town) - 6
Others had 2 or less

Day 3:
Verelios (Town) - 9
Acohrs (Town) - 6
Others had 2 or less

Day 4:
Acohrs (Town) - 8
Sorian (Town) - 5
Others had 2 or less.

Notice a pattern?
Click to expand...
The runner up always gets lynched the next day. It's Sorian's turn.


Actually I have been wondering if Sorian intentionally let the poison get him so we wouldn't waste a day lynching him. Don't really see why he wouldn't have claimed at the start of the day though.


Also the answer you were probably looking for it "it's all town" (except swamped)
 
B

Burbeting

Banned
It also means Scum has been able to be most likely very relaxed during the lynches. And maybe even make tactics on spreading their members out to different votes. They most likely wouldn't want everyone voting for the same person.
 
K

Kyanrute

Member
Burbeting said:
It also means Scum has been able to be most likely very relaxed during the lynches. And maybe even make tactics on spreading their members out to different votes. They most likely wouldn't want everyone voting for the same person.
Click to expand...

Are you thinking about something like voting for someone who wasn't on any of the trains Blarg was on?
 
B

Burbeting

Banned
I'm not against TWE or swamped lynch, but I'm also concerned about Dragons and Kyanrute right now. I town read Splinter and Kawl.

Not putting a vote on TWE right now, he is pretty close to getting to turbo territory now.
 
T

TheWorthyEdge

Member
Burbeting said:
I'm not against TWE or swamped lynch, but I'm also concerned about Dragons and Kyanrute right now. I town read Splinter and Kawl.

Not putting a vote on TWE right now, he is pretty close to getting to turbo territory now.
Click to expand...

May as well. No one's here and with 7 mins left I'm not changing anyone's minds.

Sorry town for being a bad town player. Didn't mean to be a nuisance. Good luck. Have fun.
 
B

Burbeting

Banned
Kyanrute said:
Are you thinking about something like voting for someone who wasn't on any of the trains Blarg was on?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure. But it's something to ponder on.

TheWorthyEdge said:
May as well. No one's here and with 7 mins left I'm not changing anyone's minds.

Sorry town for being a bad town player. Didn't mean to be a nuisance. Good luck. Have fun.
Click to expand...

Look. This could be MYLO, so mislynching could lead into losing. Giving up like Crab and Verelios did is not really an option if you are town.
 
O

Ourobolus

Banned
theworthyedge (5)
kawl_usc 3388
flatearthpandas 3406
gorlak 3424
franconp 3492
kyanrute 3515

swamped (2)
faddy 3292 (3329)
theworthyedge 3313 (3333)
*splinter 3397
stanleypalmtree 3507

franconp (2)
theworthyedge 3333
faddy 3412

kawl_usc (1)
swamped 3447

ccs (1)
wherearemahdragonz 3503

burbeting (0)
theworthyedge 3257 (3313)
stanleypalmtree 3263 (3507)
franconp 3398 (3492)

wherearemahdragonz (0)
gorlak 3317 (3386)
swamped 3435 (3447)

kyanrute (0)
gorlak 3386 (3424)

stanleypalmtree (0)
swamped 3390 (3435)

No Active Vote: Burbeting, CCS

Day 5 Ends:
red_1490043600.png


Majority is 7.
 
T

TheWorthyEdge

Member
Well in that case.

There's still nothing that I can do to protect myself besides tell you all my role.

I am...

*pauses for effect*

giphy.gif


Kyanrute!

Normal town.
 
C

CCS

Banned
At risk of repeating whatever's already been said:

Burb is clear. Splinter and Faddy aren't 100% clear, but enough so that I wouldn't want to focus on them right now.

So let's look elsewhere. Assuming that I'm town (which I know to be true) there are 9 people left with 3 or 4 scum there.

Of them, I'd be hesitant to say I entirely town read anyone. However, I am sufficiently unsuspicious of Gorlak and Kyan that they can be dropped to the lower priority list too.

My opinion is a bit swingy on Fran, but I lean towards town. Ditto Swamped.

Kawl for me is honestly a null. Given his irl explanations for his lower activity, I'm struggling to make much out of what we've got.

FEP is still a slight scum read, but week enough that I'm not voting for them over one of my stronger reads.

Burb's observation about the pattern of lynches does raise a good point: every lynch (except squidy obviously) was a fairly major target of suspicion for some time. This suggests that scum have worked on building up a core group of town players who are all fairly widely suspected, probably by each mainly focusing on different targets. If this is the case,the scum team is probably players who have:

a) never been the subject of widespread suspicion
b) not moved too much in sync

Coupled with my earlier comments, I think this makes a reasonable picture of a scum team containing TWE, WAMD, and Stan.
 
B

Burbeting

Banned
So that's the data we have on Blarg votes, since on D3 he flipped. Let's start from there, both situations were town v town.

Only Swamped always voted with Blarg.
Kyanrute, CCS, Kawl, TWE, Stanley, Faddy never voted with Blarg. Same with Dragonz, I think?
Splinter and Gorlak had a 50% rate.

Hmmh.. not enough data, with Blarg flipping so early.
 
O

Ourobolus

Banned
theworthyedge (5)
kawl_usc 3388
flatearthpandas 3406
gorlak 3424
franconp 3492
kyanrute 3515

swamped (2)
faddy 3292 (3329)
theworthyedge 3313 (3333)
*splinter 3397
stanleypalmtree 3507

stanleypalmtree (2)
swamped 3390 (3435)
Faddy
CCS

franconp (1)
theworthyedge 3333
faddy 3412

kawl_usc (1)
swamped 3447

ccs (1)
wherearemahdragonz 3503

burbeting (0)
theworthyedge 3257 (3313)
stanleypalmtree 3263 (3507)
franconp 3398 (3492)

wherearemahdragonz (0)
gorlak 3317 (3386)
swamped 3435 (3447)

kyanrute (0)
gorlak 3386 (3424)

No Active Vote: Burbeting

Day 5 Ends:
red_1490043600.png


Majority is 7.
 
T

TheWorthyEdge

Member
Well may as well make it more in the realm of possibility that I don't die today even though I said I wasn't going to do this.

I trust splinter and so I'm going with

VOTE: Swamped

instead of Stanley.
 
S

StanleyPalmtree

Banned
okay, so im really not for a twe lynch, but seems votes for every other target are a scattered mess. i dont suppose there is a non twe that we can agree on?

also hopefully one that isnt me?
 
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